6
2013
Can Ike Davis Mash 40 Homers In 2013?
An article by 
Ike Davis had an incredible second half for the Mets last season and even led the NL in home runs during that span. Plagued with some rust from an ankle injury that wiped out his 2011 season and a bout with Valley Fever, Davis had two very forgettable months to start the 2012 campaign - combining for a .169 batting average in April and May. He came dangerously close to being demoted to the minors, but Terry Collins stuck with him and Davis rewarded him with 27 homers and .541 slugging percentage the rest of the way.
That leads to the question of if the young first baseman can hit the 40 homer plateau. Fake Teams‘ Ray Guilfoyle believes he can and writes:
But, Davis will have to improve in two areas before reaching the 40 home run plateau. He needs to hit better than .174 vs lefties, as he did in 2012. He hit .295 vs lefties in 2010, so if he can split the difference and hit around .240 against southpaws, that should help him get there. In addition, Davis was horrible at home last season, hitting just .188 with 11 of his home runs coming at Citi Field. Most hitters hit better at home than they do on the road, and Davis hit .271 with 8 of his 19 home runs in 2010, so there is hope that he can improve upon his .188 batting average at home last season.
If Davis can get off to a hot start like he did to start the 2011 season, before his ankle injury, and show some improvement hitting at home and vs lefties, I see him challenging for the National League home run title in 2013. He hit 32 home runs in 2012 after a horrible first two months, and ended the season tied for fourth in the NL in homers, so he has a very good shot at the NL home run title should he be able to put together six power-filled months like he did in June through September last season.
I’m not sure if Davis can overcome both his troubles against lefthanded pitching and solving his offensive woes at Citi Field in one fell swoop. I’m also a big believer in the law of averages.
However, rather than setting 40 homers for a goal, I would much rather see Davis focus on raising last season’s batting average (.227) and OBP (.308) more-so than hitting an additional eight home runs.
I would love to see what kind of season Ike Davis would have if he were to get off to the kind of start he had in 2011 when he batted .302/.383/.543/.925.
Give me a slash line like that and all the extra base-hits that go with it in 2013, and instead of pondering a 40 homer season, we may be looking at an MVP season instead. The 40 homers would just be gravy at that point.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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I just don’t want him to turn into a Mark Reynolds type player because the Mets are drilling him to be a homerun hitter.
Hey Joe,
Ike is a real enigma. He had a good second half that was somewhat disappointing with his .228 September average.
He is a stud fielder.
But I’m not sure that he can lick that lefty pitching problem. Yes, he hit lefties well in 2010 – but unfortunately, lefty pitchers got the book on him and he hasn’t been able to do anything against them since. He has a hole in his swing that you can drive a Mack truck through. Against lefties you can see how vulnerable he is against a sweeping curve or slider. He looks like he just gives up on them.
The real question is – is he another Dave Kingman? We all hope not.
I would be satisfied with a .280 ba, .350 obp with 20 – 25 dingers and 85 – 100 RBI. If he reaches that than we can say he’s a success.
Happy New Year, tlagee.
I have to confess I had a man crush on Kingman growing up. lol But now I know better, and would agree. Lets hope Ike doesn’t become another Kingman or Mark Reynolds as Mitch mentioned.
The focus has to be making more consistent contact and hitting to all fields, not swinging for the fences.
Happy New Year to you Joe – just spent the last week up the Central Coast of Australia – temps in the high 80′s all week. Thanks for the mention in the article you wrote earlier this week.
Who didn’t have a man-crush on Kingman?
I remember one time when he was playing for the Cubs – I brought my girlfriend to a game and was sitting behind the Cubs dugout at Shea. Kingman came up and I started yelling about how useless he was. He hit the ball out of Shea and hit a bus in the parking lot. I was so amazed – I was jumping and applauding. My girlfriend asked why I was cheering him and I said – ‘there’s only one guy in baseball who could do that’.
When he was with the Mets and you would watch the game on TV – Kingman was a guy you always made sure you watched.
However, there is a significant downside to Kingman – his teams never one – and he was one of the biggest reasons they didn’t.
Can David Wright hit 25 HR in 2013 is a better question !
Ike hitting 40 is way more likely than Wright hitting 25.
I hope he doesnt. Wright isnt a slugger and that is something that needs to be drilled into his head. 20 HRs from him is fine coupled with 45-50 doubles. He needs to be hitting the ball into the RF gap these days. That needs to be his mindset.
Yes sir. I agree here completely. I don’t believe he’s capable of hitting 25 HRs anymore…but 40, even 50 doubles? Doable if he keeps his swing mechanics sharp.
He had 41 or 42 last year with a total collapse in the 2nd half (what did he hit .240 or something). If he maintains stays away from the habit of swinging at all those sweeping breaking balls that end up a foot outside, he will have a chance at 50. If he expands the strike zone, especially to start the season, 30 will be a tough number to reach.
All batters are most effective if they hit the ball hard where its pitched. In that sense, pitchers throw home runs more than hitters hit them. Of course, the more powerful the hitter, the more likely that some of the hard-hit balls will go over the fence.
Ike and David (sounds like a Wilpon ice cream combo) are two hitters that are at their best when they’re driving hits to the opposite field. That tells you they are hitting the ball hard where its pitched. The homeruns come when they come. If both hitters stayed true to their form, Ike is a 40-homer guy and Wright is a 20-25 homer guy with batting averages that toggle .300, obp’s over .375 and slugging over .500.
Duda could be a 23-35 homer guy, but needs to ignore Hudgens’ philosophy of working the count. He needs to become more aggressive earlier in the count, when he is likely to see more fastballs as pitchers try to get ahead and then expand the zone as the at-bat is prolonged. Lucas has a nice, compact swing, in contrast to Ike’s looping swing, but becomes less effective as the at bat continues largely due to poor pitch recognition.
Tejada is one who benefits by prolonging the at bat. He has a short and compact swing, and is less susceptible to being thrown off when a pitcher works changes speed & location.
The point is that one approach does not suit all hitters, but one universal principle is that a hitter needs to hit the ball hard where its pitched. Two Mets that appeared to master that principle are Edgardo Alfonzo and Jay Payton, who fizzled out. When those guys were on, the ball absolutely jumped off their bat.
My guess is probably not. His 25hr+ days are likely past. He’s probably a 20hr+ guy currently. i do think he’ll be hit for a good average with a a .850 or so OPS. i just hope he stays good long enough to contribute to a playoff run ’14 – ’16.
“Can David Wright hit 25 HR in 2013 is a better question !”
Can you go a whole day without your needless hatred is actually an even better question. What does that have to do with this post? Do you or do you not feel that Ike can hit 40 homers (a pretty silly question of itself, IMO since it’s all pure speculation)?
Can Ike hit 40 HR in an injury free season? absolutely
Will he be extended? probably not…
too “aloof” according to the Book Of Matthew
Just-da-Damaja
The better question is if AFTER Ike hits 40 hrs. and is NOT extended will he be made an OFFER as a FA.
If he is given a low ball offer he will leave.
If he is given a fair offer after being insulted he will leave.
Ike will not be given an above FMV offer.
Ike will take a hike.
A better question is, can Ike manage to start the season on a hot streak like the one he had in 2011? The key is to have a hot start, as well as becoming well-rounded, mashing against LHP. If so, Davis can undoubtedly hit 40. Of course, it would help to have some help in the lineup, but I digress.
I say .283/.357/.521 – 38 HR – 114 RBI. Anybody else?
I’d take that in a New York minute!
Andrew,
That’s incredibly lofty, don’t you think? That’s an AWSOME year your projecting. I would take that in a heartbeat. Not so sure he can produce that. My guess .265 34 hrs 105 rbi’s
Ike presumably will have Murphy and Wright hitting ahead of him; two guys who amassed 40 or more doubles last year. If they can duplicate that, which they should, Ike will have plenty of RBI chances. If he can get his average up to .250-.260, he will drive in over 110.
One of the major keys to the Mets season is they need to get between 65-70 HRs from Ike and Duda. They are the two guys on the team who can hit it out to any field in any ball park. Plus, they need at least 200 RBI combined.
LMAO
and what does the leader of the franchise HAVE to do ?
aside from smiling for the camera ?
Is there a thread where you don’t go after David Wright? He’s all ours now for eight years so lets hope for the best possible outcome.
I always HOPE for the best possible outcome.
But the fact that we more than likely will see studs like Ike leave b/c the org HAS to make DW the MAN is like a nail in my shoe….
yes, we hope that Ike hits 40 HR and the Mets extend him ( the important part ) for the next 7 years
but everything I have seen from this ownership and front office says that that probably wont happen…
Just
We all know you cannot be counted on to fair or balanced when it comes to D Wright (I will never understand fans vitriol for a key player on THEIR team that is productive and APPEARS to be a decent human. I can’t stand Valdespin but I want him to do well while wearing a Met’s uniform) but that being said, can you please explain what Ike has done to win your favor? He’s been barely two full seasons (I know it’s 3 but I mean actually playing in the bigs not hurt or in AAA) and I would say that he still has a lot to prove at best. With the pronounced uppercut in in his swing he could easily turn into the next Rob Deer, Gorman Thomas, Dave Kingman, Mark Reynolds, etc., etc.
I like Ike and I’m rooting hard for the guy but I think that many are putting way too much stock in him way too soon.
” I can’t stand Valdespin”
LMAO
u cant stand a player you have never heard speak….that you dont know…and pretty much go by on 2nd half information with everything…
and I’ve said before I actually think Wright is a nice guy, i met him 2x already.
i dont hate Wright, i hate the pedestal you guys place him on.
Just
Yes I don’t like Valdespin. It has zero to do with his second half. I also love the fact that you know me so well as to tell me I’ve never heard him speak and so on. Thanks for clearing up for me what I do and don’t know. I have heard him speak much more than once. I could be 100% wrong but I cannot stand rookies that need to have their attitudes adjusted (he’s had that happen to him). I totally understand that they will make mistakes and many times repeat them but his attitude is what gets me. His mugging up wearing a disgusting Marlins cap on twitter was what sealed the deal for me. Not sure why I dislike that so much but I do.
He meant second hand lol
“I also love the fact that you know me so well as to tell me I’ve never heard him speak and so on”
Please fill me on the conversation you heard Jordany Valdespin had with SNY…
O wait…
the only thing he did say was thank you to his mother and he hoped she was watching.
then later in his broken english, he once said, I’m the Man.
Yup…that pretty much confirmed he was a cocky son of a gun that doesnt tuck in his shirt !
Wasnt it this FO that signed Niese to his extension last year? Have the owners changed in the last 10 years because if not, then werent they the ones who gave both Wright and Reyes long term deals?
Seems there is a precedent set with both the FO and these owners. So what are you basing you assertion on?
i´ll take a .288 with 30 HR rather then a .260 with 40 HR , but ike will improve BIG , no doubt
Hey Angelo -
Yeah I would take either .280 with 30 dingers or .260 with 40.
Unfortunately we got 32 with .226 and a ton of strikeouts.
The jury is out on Ike.
Angelo there is a reason the shoutbox is no longer on the front page. Refrain from EVER posting a link to it again. You’re not doing anybody any favors.
Task,
I hear what you’re saying and I don’t disagree but when you break it down the way you just did, it looks grimm. Even if Ike hits 40 (something I doubt somewhat) that means Duda has to hit 25 to 30 (something I seriously doubt.)
I tend to be higher on Duda than most. He always hit in the minors and even had success in the majors. For some reason, the Mets tinkering really messed him up (perhaps more than anyone else). I am hoping he gets back to form. Even with a poor year last year, he hit 15 HRs. Is adding 10 to that figure out of the realm of possibility? I dont believe so.
Here is a question for everyone:
We know Niese was signed long term in ST last season and the idea of locking up the young guys is a model that is being followed. I am not sure the Mets are 100% sold on Ike yet but they are certainly leaning that way. My question is when do we see Ike given a LT contract that locks him up for 5-7 years?
I say he gets it next off season.
Barring injury, Ike seems set for a record year (for him). If Mets were smart, they’d lock him in this ST. And that way, IF they ever wanted to trade him, he’d be under seal for 5 – 7 years and more attractive to other teams. I hope we don’t trade him, but IF we did, might as well maximize his value.
That’s a great question for a MMO Mailbag piece so I submitted it to the guys who post those for us.
Here is my prediction on Ike….
He will hit 40 Hrs in a season at some point but this year sure is not it.
In fact I would bet that he doesn’t hit 32 this year as his main focus (and that of Hudgens) will be getting that BA up.
That usually entails controlling your swing and not overswinging to hit HRs. Ike doesn’t need to overswing to hit them so it won’t hurt his power ALL that much.
If the BA comes up (and he could be a .300 hitter if he works at it) he should hit anywhere from 23-28 Hrs this year and 32-36 if he gets that BA up before the ASG break.
Next year (and once the BA comes up) he will start seeing the ball much better and get to that 40 HR mark.
It’s a tough task to do playing half your games in CitiField but he can do it and I think will…
Joe,
Agree, HR total less important than raising OPS vs. lefties, and overall. I think his success will have a lot to do with whether or not they can find a consistent, legit #5 hittier. Mets are wise to defer extending. If Ike can’t hit lefties, he will not be the long-term solution at 1B.
I think the real question is; why would an organization state openly that it’s 2nd year, 1st round pick, smooth fielding, home run hitting 1st baseman has a poor attitude, stays out late and does not accept coaching well????
Did we ever get to the bottom of waht that was all about?
I did a lot of digging, and I really don’t know where Rubin came up with that. Sometimes sources just get it wrong.
I do know when Sandy was questioned on it on WFAN, he never once denied it…
that in itself speaks volumes…
And somimes Sources tell thier reporter, if it ever comes out that I was the one who said it you will never hear from me again….
And then no one ever figures out who the source was….
When this fired up the storm it did I am willing to bet they had a meeting and said whoever leaked this had better make it die as quickly as it came to life…
And the subject was swept under the rug….
except it wasnt swept under the rug…
as a matter of fact..
the Book of Matthew ADDED ON and called Ike Davis an aloof overrated 1B who may be more suited as a platoon player !!!
when MB saw the reaction…he pulled the comment…
if u do a search on google…u can still see the comment in cached results
when anyone asked him about it on twitter, MC would immediately block them
AGAIN
the fact that our Ivy League scholar GM never denied it + MB continued to add on confirms that it was def a smear campaign…
Good article joe. 35 hr and 290 average seems possible.
I cant believe this came from you. I do believe you’re evolving and that is good to see.
I also predict that Daniel Murphy will hit 18 HRs this year. He had 12 in 2009 when he was a 1st base. Last year he was working on defense at 2nd base which was a lot harder. Many writers said that the corner bases are easy to learn and that few players have made the transition from the corners to 2nd base. Murphy proved them wrong as he worked very hard.This year he can work on hitting & the HRs will come,he showed that in the 2nd half of 2012 hitting 6 HRs.
With Murph now a year and a half removed from knee surgery, so hopefully he’ll have enough lower body enough/leg drive to really drive the ball in order to have a 18 HR season.
Davis should hit 40 this year. He will need protection in the 5 spot though. Bring back Hairston for that 5 hole.
Can Ike hit 40 this year? Yes. Will he? No.
Ike certainly has the talent to hit 40 HR.
However, the main goal needs to be consistency.
I’d be quite happy if Ike becomes a .270 BA, .350 OBP, .500 SLG type 1bman with above average defense there and, say, a .900 OPS vs. RHP and an adequate enough .725 OPS vs. LHP.
That probably means 30 to 35 HR annually – which is about what to expect at Citifeld.
Put him into Yankee Stadium and he probably can mash 45 HR with the short RF.
Yes he can hit 40 homers, meaning he has 40 homer power, but because he has no protection in the line up yet and he is not hitting lefties well so Ike will fall short of 40 homers.My prediction is 34 homers this year.
I firmly believe people are underestimating Davis and completely forgetting he had shown improvement in 2011 before injuring his ankle. I think Davis is very capable of being very close to a Fred McGriff type of player. Which puts him in the .280 Ba 30+HR 90 to 105RBI…What he does need is for Alderson to get off his ass and get a right handed power bat behind him…Stop twiddling his thumbs and get it done..As soon as Ike has a decent bat behind him (which Bay never became), he will rake…Ike is very capable of hitting around 300…Yes 2011 was a small example but, I think it was an indicator. Also you take a year off from playing baseball…it takes a while to get it back. He was technically only going into his second year…So give the kid a break..
I’m a big believer in Ike Davis and I’m looking forward to seeing him put up a full season of what we saw from last year’s second half.