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2013
2013 Means Everything For Duda
An article by 
Am I the only one who sees a lot of Mike Pelfrey in Lucas Duda?
Duda is expected to be the bright and shining star in the Mets OF (heck he was supposed to last year also) and it reminds me of when Pelfrey unfairly was expected to be the ace.
It’s as if we see glimmers of hope and rather than accept the guy for what he is – we magnify it to make him something he isn’t and raise the expectations to the point he cannot possibly achieve.
I feel like we as a fan base have this notion that Duda is a 40 HR guy just because he’s big. Size doesn’t make you a great hitter. A great hitter hits 40 HR.
You always read or hear that number get thrown out there as if this is 2001 and hitting 40 HR is the norm.
In the last 3 years, only 8 different players have hit at least 40 HR in a season. They are Miguel Cabrera, Josh Hamilton, Curtis Granderson (2), Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Dunn, Ryan Braun, Jose Bautista (2), and Albert Pujols.
There are a lot of great hitters absent from that list. Prince Fielder, Giancarlo Stanton, Robinson Cano, Joey Votto, Mark Teixeira, and Matt Kemp just to name a few.
This 40 HR bar, or heck even 30 HR bar that seems to face Duda is a flawed design which is destined to make him fail.
Duda turns 27 this weekend and besides getting hot at the end of 2011, what has he done to prove he’s a starting OF on an average team?
In reality, Duda is a big, slow, below average fielder who can occasionally hit for power but doesn’t seem to adjust his approach at the plate at all.
This year, Lucas Duda’s future with the Mets will be decided. He was sent down to AAA last season in an effort to figure things out – if it gets to that point again, it could leave Duda without a job.
The pressure on Duda is slightly unfair. In a lackluster OF, he is expected to carry the load rather than do enough to keep his job. This is very similar to the days when Pelfrey became the ace by default. Though he worked hard, he could never live up to those expectations.
I don’t see how Duda can possibly reach expectations of being a prominent power hitter in the NL.
The bigger question is, can Duda do enough in 2013 to not only keep his job in 2014 – but to assure the Mets they don’t need a brand new outfield once again?
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
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Yup, is he a contributing member or is he the LH version of Nick the Stick?
I look for 25-30 HRs from Duda. But I do agree, this is a make or break year for the guy. In fact, I go one step further and state that if he has a bad April and May, his major league career might be over. I dont see the Mets sticking with him like they did with Ike last year. His bat has to overwhelm his poor defense.
seems about right. Even with his overall down year, he hit 15 HRs in 400 ABs, so in a full year, right in that low 20 range, so if he does settle in and has a bit of a rebound, 25 should be very reasonable.
He is a big guy, and has hit some impressive home runs, but what was impressive about his 2011 numbers was the .290 average and .370 obp, and the projected about 40 doubles. He projected to around 20 home runs, not 30 or 40, but there seems to be this desire for more home runs from so many places. As he is coming off a wrist injury I would hope that his goal and peoples hopes for him would be better hitting (higher average, fewer strike outs, maybe using the whole field more, and more walks too?) and less power as he gets stronger in the wrist. A .290 hitter with 15 home runs but who everyone knows can hit it out is more imposing and useful than a .240 hitter with 25 home runs and a lot more strike outs.
Duda really needs to hit to justify playing him anywhere in the field.
That probably means at least an .800 OPS to be adequate and an .850 OPS (like in 2011) to be an asset.
With his 2012 production level, he´s a sub-replacement level player who has no business or usefulness on a major league roster.
Basically a LHH Val Pascucci.
2013 will be his “make” or “break” year.
And since there are no expectations, there´s basically no pressure on him.
i agree on Duda. Maybe he’ll be better in LF, but he must total .800+ OPS to be an asset. And if he’s in left, i’m thinking more & more, MDD is the answer in CF.
An interesting breakdown on Duda.
http://risingapple.com/2013/01/29/you-underrate-lucas-duda/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
The analysis pretty much hit the nail on the head.
“He swung at fewer pitches in the strike zone. When he was ahead, this led to more walks. When he was behind, this led to more strikeouts than in the past.”
I recall Keith, Ron & Gary were jumping out of their seats when Duda would allow a first-pitch fastball split the plate without taking a hack. I wonder whether Hudgens hitting philosophy – trying to drive a pitchers pitch count up by working the count – affected him there.
I think Duda needs to think less and swing more a hittable pitches and the rest will work itself out. He’s a really good hitter, an under-rated outfielder and has a sound, workmanlike approach.
With Lucas in left field and Andrew Brown in right field, our corner OF positions are currently under-rated and could be the source of substantial contributions at the plate and, in Brown’s case, in the OF. We’ll see what becomes of CF.
One thing I do know is that the virus known as Bay-Torres that swarmed over the club last year has lifted, and players roles will be a little more simplified. That can only help as a young outfield tries to establish its own identity.
pretty much this would be a put up or shut up years, given his age, time on the club, and D issues.
But the expectations came from 2 superb (1.00+ OPS) seasons (partial with call ups) in AAA, after breaking out at AA, with a ton of extra base hits, and plenty of HRs mixed in. Followed up by an extremely good 3 months (full 2nd half) in 2011 with the bat (77 games and almost 300 PAs with a .933 OPS one he basically became a regular).
no, he did not keep that up in 2012 (sophmore slump? figured out? self-imposed pressure?), but he has shown an ability to be a complete hitter (BA, OBP, and slugging), and certainly deserves a full shot to start this year to prove he deserves to be in the majors. Glove might mean he needs to be in the AL, but if that is the case, and the bat is producing, just trade him over.
A good idea for an article.. The Mets are notorious for putting bats out in the field. Murph, Lutz, Spin and Duda each has several gloves in their lockers. None is a major league fielder. Short of crushing the ball this season Duda is on borrowed time. In 2011 he played an acceptable first base. Davis is in his way. The Mets could get value for Davis. Luke not so much. I look for Sandy to trade Davis for a quality outfielder.
Yes, Duda’s situation is similar to Pelfrey’s, but what’s worrisome is that Duda seems to share the same lack of self-confidence that afflicted Pelfrey. You want some aggressiveness and confidence in your players, and both players are poster boys for the meek and mild — at least on the field. However, it appears to me that Duda is not as much a headcase as Pelfrey is. He doesn’t resort to the maddening bouts of finger-licking or glove-biting when things don’t go right for him.
In terms of their situations, I think the pressure was a little higher on Pelfrey as he was a first round pick with greater expectations. Duda can also hide, to some extent, among the other position players and outfielders on the team. But a starting pitcher is always front and center on the mound.
I’m keeping an open mind on Duda. He, like so many of the other young Mets, is hard to predict. Predicting Ike or Wright is a lot easier. So I think Duda can go either way this season. I do think moving to LF for him will be a plus.
Doubles, HR’S and RBI’S is what we want. Hopefully he can do it here, unlike Pelfrey.
Correction. Like Pelfrey. He gave up a lot of 2Bs, HRs,and RBIs.
Yep, We want from Duda what Pelfrey gave up.
Honestly not sure where the hype comes from. Maybe the desperate situation that is the 2013 Mets. Duda largely projects to be the left handed hitting part of a DH platoon.
Duda did most of his damage with the bat and got it on track while he was playing 1B.
2011
He hit .316 with a .380 OBP (3 HRs) as a 1B….
Hit .353 with a .421 OBP (1 HR) as a PH…
Hit .231 with a .267 OBP (2 HRs) as a LF
Hit .268 with a .364 OBP as a RF (where he had 11 more PA than at 1st and hit most of his HRs with 6)
He started off hot when playing 1B and as soon as he had to field a more difficult position his BA dropped .048 but the HRs increased. And Most of them came in August right after he started in RF and was still hot from his time at 1B….
The fielding took away focus, wore him out, whatever…
He was much better when he was at 1B and sad to say he has no place to pley there….
If he can get somewhere between the 1B and RF numbers (July and August) while playing the OF he will be fine and probably hit close to 25 HRs. He hit 15 in half a season last year and when did we send him down?
Right around the time he got hot in 2011….August!
sorry last line should read Late July and August.
I smell 30/90/.270/.350/.820 from the Dude this year. And, HE IS IN THE BEST SHAPE OF HIS LIFE too.
30 may be a bit too much….
His issue last year was BA….Not the HRs…
BA and HRs are usually a balancing act…The Higher the BA the fewer the HRs and the reverse….
To have the high BA you need more bat control to get more HRs you need to swing a little more freely….
I suspect Duda will concentrate more on the BA and not take the sweeping power cuts to get there….Work on contact and bat control more, and the HRs will be fewer….
I suspect the same thing with Ike this year…I doubt he hits 32 HRs as his focus will be on the BA and once he has it only THEN will he loosen up and start hitting bombs again…
SO I project both (considering what they will be concentrating on improving from last year) will wind up in the 25 HR range and if they start off hot and get that BA up and keep it by the time July hits they could go as high as 30 with the majority of them coming later in the season.
Yeah, I may have been a little over enthusiastic on the Dude, but I do think that offensively he can settle in to being a contributor. He looked like he had a good approach in 2011, and hopefully his issues in 2012 were more mental. The HRs do not mean so much to me, I would like to see good OBP, reflecting good pitch recognition, and good OPS, be it HRs or doubles.
Don’t misinterpret what I was saying…I AGREE that Duda can and probably WILL BE a 30HR guy….
I just don’t think this is the year he does it because he is going to be focused on getting that BA up at the expense of his power.
But once his focus on that is gone and he is where he wants to be on the BA side he will then relax and be able to take the cuts that can drive the ball out…
His size is perfect for a 30+ HR guy….
I think Ike will be focused on the same thing which is why I predict his decline as well but your not OVER ESTIMATING what Duda is capable of…. just that I think this year he will have other priorities that will take away from his HR totals.
For what it’s worth, Bill James is predicting a bounce-back season for Lucas. I don’t know. Beyond his confidence issues, Duda seems to me like a guy who you could punch in the face and he’d be like, “hey, what’d you do that for??” I like his approach at the plate, I like his power, I like his plate discipline, I’m not sure he has the toughness, the mental toughness. I don’t know, I could be wrong, we’ll see.
He does give that impression for sure, couple that with the reports on his confidence issues and you can tell it’s either gonna be hit or miss for him. I don’t see a Ryan Church type career even. it’s gonna be all or nothing.
Jesse
Great point on the 40 homer mark. I think we are still using the juiced scale when it comes to what we expect from some hitters. That is why I’m a bit uneasy about projecting 40 fingers from Ike.
Btw, I meant dingers not fingers. Stupid autocorrect on the iPhone.
LoL Thanks for the correction up until now I thought you was referring to some type of Baseball Kung Fu.
Pelf was a first rounder, I don’t recall Duda ever appearing on any top prospects list, so why are the expectations the same?
Sometimes players take time to develop, Headley was a top prospect for San Diego and did not produce more than 12 homers in 4 seasons, or more like three and three quarter seasons, then he pops 31 last year. Sometimes it just takes time and adjustments. He just needs to play everyday. Look at Jose Batista, he is a late bloomer, he added a leg kick later in his career and now is one of if not the best power hitter in the game. So hopefully he hits well enough to become trade bait to an AL team, Mets need a better defensive player out there. He would be a great Dh in Tampa next year!!!!
Who exactly expects him to be a shining star? I think he’s terrible and so does every other knowledgeable met fan I talk to.
Pelfry was a 1st round pick Duda was drafted in the 7th round BIG diference
Duda needs to play everyday and I do not know if the Mets are ready to commit to him playing the outfield on a regular basis.I believe that he can hit 20+ HR and get 70 RBI’s but his fielding has to improve in order for him to stick around this could be his make or break year,espically if the Mets end up signing Bourne for center and will result make playing time for the remaining outfielders a dog fight.The Mets want Duda to be there guy now its up to him to show up and be the player they can count on.