19
2012
Thoughts On The R.A. Dickey Blockbuster Trade
An article by 
The dust has finally settled and the R.A. Dickey saga is over. On Monday night, he signed an extension with the Blue Jays, making the seven-player, blockbuster deal finally official after days of unconfirmed rumors and speculation. The deal surprised many Mets fans, including me. However, it was one that will pay off for them in the future.
No, it sure wasn’t easy to give up the reigning Cy Young award winner. How often do these special players come around, especially in the Mets organization? Plus, he was signed for just $5 million next season. Seems like a no-brainer — for a conventional pitcher perhaps. However, the situation the Mets and Dickey were in was one that no one has ever seen before. Not only was Dickey a knuckle ball pitcher (and those are a rarity now), but he had a completely different career path than most, one that made his future uncertain. Maybe with a “regular” knuckle ball pitcher at 38 years old, it would be safe to assume that they can continue at the same level of production for another four or five years. But with Dickey having spent most of his career as a conventional pitcher and missing his UCL (a ligament in his right elbow) nobody is sure how his arm will wear down as his career progresses. My guess, considering the fact that he throws a very hard knuckle ball, is that Dickey can be very good for another two years, and decent after that. With his value so high at the moment — the highest it will ever be — trading him to a team willing to take the risk made sense. It only takes one organization that thinks he can go another five years pitching as well as he has to make a deal 
worthwhile. Giving up a reigning Cy Young award winner will leave a bad taste in the mouth of some Mets fans, but the uncertainty and quality of the package the Blue Jays offered made it more than bearable.
One thing that must be considered is the window of winning. Dickey, at best will likely be dominant through 2014. The window the Mets have to make a run at the division is 2014 and beyond. The two time periods don’t match up well. Dickey would be on the decline as the rest of the team was improving. The added fleibility the Mets will get in those years by having young players in their pre-arbitration years making the minimum instead of $12 million or more for Dickey is another point to be considered.
Now let’s take a look at the trade itself. Along with Dickey, the Mets cleared Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas from the roster, two of the worst (at least last year) hitting catchers in baseball. Here’s how they compare to the rest of the league:
Sandy Alderson didn’t really give up anything of value here. Without Dickey, they no longer needed catchers who could catch the knuckle ball. The Blue Jays almost did the Mets a favor by taking those two.
The Blue Jays’ package is where this trade gets interesting. Toronto dealt the Mets three prospects — Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, and Wuilmer Becerra – as well as John Buck. Two of these prospects (d’Arnaud and Syndergaard) are now easily considered two of the three best Mets prospects. Let’s take a look at what to expect from the two of them.
Travis d’Arnaud
d’Arnaud was the centerpiece of the deal, and rightfully so. The 6’2″ catcher has the potential to be the next great Mets catcher. He has the ability to hit for average, as well as power. He’s also athletic behind the plate. Here’s what Baseball America says about him:
He’s a rare catching prospect that projects to hit in the middle of a lineup. He is an above-average hitter who should hit for at least average power. He doesn’t walk much but makes consistent hard contact, getting hits even when his timing is off or he gets off balance. He has the bat speed and strength to hit plenty of homers and lets his power come naturally, employing a short stroke and all-fields approach.
Speaking of Baseball America, d’Arnaud was ranked 17th overall last year, and will surely be higher in this year’s list. Since 2000, there have only been eight catchers ranked 17th or better: Devin Masoraco (has had minimal MLB playing time with the Reds), Jesus Montero, Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer, Matt, Wieters, Buster Posey, and Carlos Santana. When a catcher is ranked this high, they are probably going to be very successful.
d’Arnaud, in my opinion, will be at worst, a serviceable catcher who hits ten home runs and bats .260. At best, he is a 25 home run hitter who can bat .300. He’s not quite Mike Piazza at the plate (not as much power) but he can certainly be a dominant force in the middle of the Mets’ lineup.
Noah Syndergaard
The Mets managed to snag another top prospect from the Blue Jays: pitcher Noah Syndergaard. Syndergaard is a big 6’5″ righty who has a mid-90s fastball and very good control. Last year in the Low-A Midwest League, he went 8-5 with a 2.60 ERA in 103.2 innings, striking out 10.6 batters per nine innings while walking only 2.7.
The former first-round pick was ranked by MLB.com as the 83rd best prospect in baseball. In an e-mail exchange with Eric Simon of Amazin’ Avenue, Assistant GM Paul DePodesta had this to say about Syndergaard:
We see a big, physical presence who is athletic and a strike thrower. You just don’t see many guys his size at his age command the strike zone the way he has as a professional, especially with big velocity. In addition to the power, there’s also deception to what he does. As with D’arnaud, we’ll refrain from making any predictions as to where Noah will be next here until we have a better feel for him in spring training.
Ther have been comparisons here to Zack Wheeler. Both are tall, lanky right-handers with fastballs in the mid to high 90s. While Syndergaard doesn’t have the fantastic breaking ball that Wheeler does, he has much better control, even at a much younger age. Whoever you compare him to, he immediately becomes the third best prospect in the system without question. He has a bright future ahead of him, as does d’Arnaud.
——————–
As a whole, this deal is quite a bargain for Sandy Alderson and the Mets. I have to applaud them for holding out for two top 100 prospects, even though very few people thought they could actually get that kind of return. Fans were dismayed by the trade the Royals proposed, asking for Dickey and Zack Wheeler in exchange for just Wil Myers. That gave me a bad feeling that teams weren’t going to put much value in Dickey, but it turns out I was wrong and thankfully so. The team got two high-profile prospect, and a third one who could be very significant down the road who I have only mentioned briefly. To reiterate: it is tough to part with Dickey, but for the package that the Mets got, it may very well look like a huge steal down the road.
Check out more of my work at Up Along First.
About the Author: Connor O'Brien
I am a very young, but passionate Mets fan who has blogged about the Mets for three years. I hope you all enjoy the unique perspective that a fan like me can bring to the table. More about me... favorite Met- Johan Santana... favorite food- Citi Field burgers and hot dogs!... favorite musician- Mos Def... favorite Mets moment- the no-hitter of course, but I also attended Game 1 of the 2006 NLDS as well as Johan's three-hit shutout in late September 2008. Follow me on Twitter @UpAlongFirst
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I’ll miss R A, he was a class guy and always exciting to watch. I would have liked more major league ready players, I have NO confidence in this organization
to properly evaluate or coach non major league ready players.
And Syndergaard, thanks for the gay slur the first five minutes you’re here, so much for class guys. I’ll be watching the Blue Jays every time R A pitches.
Snyder didn’t make the comment in the first 5 minutes. According to his own admission it occurred a month ago and evidently someone was tipped off to it.
Hi TRS,
Perhaps it was irreverent humor, something many of us all guilty of saying in private yet in no way is reflective of how we truly feel. And perhaps because he is young he didn’t realize those type of comments should be kept private and not out there for everyone to see.
I’ll give him a pass on this one because his youth might not have enabled him to know when and where those jokes should be made.
I don’t think its fair to say Dickey will only be dominant through 2014. I honestly wouldnt be surprised if he wasnt still very good 4-5 years from now. He has only gotten better despite his age and he is a unique player and I wouldnt be surprised to see him pitch into his mid 40′s with success. For our Cy Young award winner we got two players that are 2-4 years away from making a difference (if at all) and a 24 year old catcher who missed much of last year with an injury. Sorry if I’m not jumping up and down with enthusiasm. One of these players better end up being an all-star.
Younger fans dont know much about knuckleballers and how deep into their years they can maintain their level of effectiveness. Perhaps they have Wakefield as their only example. Those in the know would have no problem believing that Dickey will be a top rotation starter for another five years before the drop off and if there’s a drop off at all.
We may have gotten a solid catcher and pitcher, we’ll know in a few years. But Dickey will continue to put up W’s and be among the top pitchers in the game for years to come. Now an entire new league will try to get their licks against him in the AL. In three years the NL could not figure him out.
Honestly, I am a decent at my baseball history. Other than Niekro what other examples do we have of knuckleball pitchers pitching VERY well late in their career?
they can pitch late, but it is somewhat of a myth that when they hit 40 they don’t slow down or become less effective.
Heck, jamie Moyer was still pitching at 49. Not great of course, but his arm had not fallen off and he was still able to get by.
Lyons, Hough, Niekro, Wilhelm, Candiotti to name a few. Two HOFers in that group.
Dude, I count three hall of famers in that group. Lyons, Niekro and Wilhelm. Did you have your Wheaties this morning?
Just seems a little rough to expect HOF production from Dickey. Those 3 were good to great pitchers before and continued after.
My apologies, you are correct. I forgot to count Lyons. I prefer Cheerios to Wheaties though. No need to get snippy.
I gave you Niekro but did the rest of that group pitch WELL into their 40′s?
Ted Lyons was a pitcher from 1920′s-1940′s I can’t say that is even close to relevant.
Hough had an ERA over 4.00 from ages 39 on. Hardly CY level but he never was to start with.
The other two are HOF who had illustrious careers prior to their late 30′s so we should automatically expect Dickey to pitch like a HOF?
Again, this myth that all knuckleball pitchers can pitch well late in their career is more myth than fact.
Really? Can you prove that with actual research because I’d bet you are wrong. BTW why did you kick Lyons to the curb? He’s one of the all time great pitchers and even won an MVP the first ever for a pitcher I believe.
I didn’t throw him to the curb, I just said he was a pitcher in the 20′s-40′s so I don’t consider that relevant. That being said using 3 HOF pitchers as proof that RA can pitch well into his 40′s is like me using Cal Ripken, Mike Schmidt and Brooks Robinson as 3 examples of why Wright can continue to produce.
Hough, J Niekro, Candiotti, and Wakefield were not good past 40. At best some were mediocre and at worst, downright awful. P. Niekro and Wilhelm did pitch well past 40 but they are in the HOF. Perhaps it has more to do with the ability to pitch as opposed to the pitch thrown.
And all of those living knuckleballers recently all agreed at that Knuckleball symposium that Dickey is by far the greatest they have ever seen with control that would rival Greg Maddux.
Why does this week have to be throw Dickey under the bus week?
If he had signed a 4 year extension and was ours, I’m sure that 90% of the bullshit that’s being spewed about him wouldn’t even be considered let alone said.
Actually there is an equal risk in signing him to an extension, one I am sure most fans would agree was worth taking. No clear thinking person belittles the Jays for signing him to the extension. It was a smart move. However, that does not remove the questions about Dickey. Do I believe he will still perform at a high level at least the next two years? Yes. Will he win another CY? Who knows. But I would not be surprised if he was in the discussion.
All trade involve risk and that is increased when the principles are an aging vet and a prospect(s).
Saying Dickey’s age is a legit concern is not throwing him under the bus. Most of us have been pretty vocal about our disdain for Davidoff’s hatchet job.
I myself would have been fine with extending him. I think this outcome is better for the long term, but having him for a few more seasons wouldn’t have been a bad thing.
Hi Peter,
To add to that list, Eddie Ciotti (not in the Hall because he participated in the black sox scandal), Wilbur Wood and Dutch Leonard.
Older fans’ memory seems to be fuzzy about this subject. Outside of Niekro, no knuckleballer has been a front line starter after 40. Most of the guys you list would be journey man back of the rotation/long relief types.
Also, which KBer on your list threw it at 80mph?
But due to Dickey’s career path he has less innings on his arm then the others. He only recently mastered the pitch so in effect you could say his career began 5 or 6 years ago.
Or it could mean his window with the pitch is smaller.
The fact is, we don’t know. To say one way or the other with any sort of conviction is foolish.
“Younger fans dont know much about knuckleballers and how deep into their years they can maintain their level of effectiveness. ”
I understand your point.I am well aware of how long knuckleballers careers can go, but as I stressed, there are other factors involved:
-He throws a hard knuckle ball, harder than anyone before him
-He was a conventional pitcher up until a few years ago
-He has no UCL in his elbow
Nobody can tell me that they know exactly how he’s goiong to decline because there has never been anyone like him before.
This throwing hard myth just has to stop….
Throwing 80 MPH is NOT throwing hard in fact most guys 38 can throw 80 MPH well into thier 40′s and 50′s….
Throwing 80 MPH does not put wear and tear on the arm at all….
What DOES hurt an arm is wrist snapping and arm twisting to GET spin mechanics and enough spin to make the ball move….
Thats what hurts elbows and stresses arms, not the 80MPH.
A Knuckleballer DOES NOT use spin mechanics he tries to get NO spin whatsoever….
and THATS why they can pitch well into thier 40′s because thier pitch STILL works at 80MPH and 70MPH and even as low as 60 MPH!
This is why we keep ignoring all of you who mention this HARD Knuckler because mentioning it makes it obvious that you guys have no clue as to what makes an arm go bad….
Great analysis!
In terms of who will be successful and for how long is a gamble for both sides. Trading a current MLB player high has been a hallmark of the Braves’ organization and look at how long they have been successful.
The Mets needed to take a risk sometime and I’m glad they finally rolled the dice. I hope both the Jays and the Mets come out equally as well as I love seeing the 3 AL east underdogs stick it to the Stanks and the Sox!
I don’t think any of us know just how many years RAD will be effective. The type of knucleball pitcher he is makes that difficult.
Good analysis though.
Given the state the Mets are in and where the Blue Jays are at in the AL east, it’s a good trade for both sides.
Here’s hoping the top 2 pieces – once they arrive at Citi – will be a staple on the team for many seasons to come. If one becomes a star, even better.
RA did have significant injures both the last 2 years (foot and abdomen tear). I believe he had to get a cortisone shot before ever start last year? And pitching with a ab tear that needed surgery must have hurt.
Yes, he seems to be a tough SOB, but it still counts if you are having injuries like that (and as you get older, they become more common not less). He also is more of a “high impact” KB, since he throws harder.
only point is, once again, RA is really a unique case, and impossible to predict what he will do based on someone like Phil Neikro.
He pitched the whole year with abdominal tear, next season lets see what he does for an encore when he’s 100% healthy.
Worry about D’Araud’s injuries. In last four minor league seasons he’s missed almost two years with various injuries and not the kind of injuries you want to see in a catcher; shoulder, back, knee. Including two season enders. If he keeps that up his debut may come in left field and a .280, 20 HR profile wouldn’t look as great.
Valid concerns. And that increases the risk but also is the reason why he was available. If not for the injury, he most likely would have been called up by the Jays during the season. The Mets sold high on Dickey (was it his peak…not if he has another terrific year) and bought low on D’Arnaud.
The bottom line is the payoff could be huge for the Mets….or it could be a total bust.
If tenacity counts for anything, RAD will be pitching effectively for years to come.
That man just refuses to come off the mound. Pitched with a partial fascia tear, torn stomach muscle (for almost the entire season) and a couple of lesser type injuries.
Great job Connor. Nice and objective, just the way I like it. I’m very excited to see D’Arnaud and hope he’s up as soon as he shows no rust.
In the Mets situation, this was a trade that had to be made, considering the package offered for RA.
1.
There is no evidence on the longevity of “hard-throwing” knuckleballers like Dickey that throw 80 mph instead of 65 mph with that pitch. It may work until he´s 47. He may break down two years from now.
2.
Even if he remains a strong pitcher into his 40s, the Mets added two consensus top 50 overall in Baseball prospects, one of them – D´Arnaud – is considered among the top 15 prospects in the game. Sure, there are no guarantees with any of them. However, if only one of the two emerges as an impact player, the Mets will have done very well, considering the amount of years they can controll those players and the low amount of salary they will be owed.
The window to win – with an ownership group that is unable and / or unwilling to afford more than a 100 million $ or so budget – and the current talent base wasn´t going to open before the first wave of young pitching is established in the majors. Not only Harvey and Wheeler – but also at least a couple of bullpen arms such as Familia, Mejia, Edgin, Gorski or McHugh. That will happen over the course of the 2013 season, hopefully in time for the 2014 season, maybe only by 2015 – with others like DeGrom, Mazzoni, Montero, Pill, Leathersich chipping in by then.
Even Dickey for D´Arnaud straight up would have been justifyable – and called too optimistic by some a month ago. Getting a potential frontline SP as well is tremendous.
A tremendous deal at this time. This is one of those trades that will go down in Met lore and will be talked about in decades to come. Put it up there with Mazzilli, Hernandez, Carter, Seaver, and Ryan. It is one that changes the direction of an organization. The only question, will it be looked at like Mazzilli where the pieces returning worked well or another Seaver deal where they didnt (leaving the iconic status of Seaver aside). Only time will tell on this one. We all hope it is the establishment of better things to come.
Bottom line is the Met’s need more high end young controllable talent, and that is what they got. They probably where not getting two top prospects close to majors, but they got one that is and another that eventually should be. I would rather have the upside in Synder to pitch for us or use as trade bait than someone with not as much upside to help us now win 80 games. The Cowgill move as well was very good and under rador move.
In three offseasons Alderson has made plenty of so-called under the radar moves. Eamus, Beato, Dykstra, Hu, Bucholz, Paulino, Thayer, etc. Not one has panned out. Can you name one player Alderson signed in his first two years that will be on the Mets Opening Day roster in 2013? I can’t. He’s batting .000. He should ask Minaya if he wants to be his bench coach.
That’s right, every single one of Omar’s guys worked out, proof is in all those titles the Mets won during his tenure, oh wait……….
David Newhan
Chip Ambres
Willie Collazo
Brian Lawrence
Ricky Ledee
Matt Wise
Ramon Martinez
Rocky Cherry
Bobby Kielty
Tim Redding
Kelvim Escobar
Awesome. Sorry, but there isn’t a GM out there that has ever had a 100% success rate. Never mind the drastic cut in payroll, oops can’t blame the Wilpons at all and their drama the last few years, definitely not a variable right?
Nice try, Kay. Find me one instance where any of those players you listed were labeled as under the radar signings? I’ll give you $20 bucks if you show me one reporter calling Rocky Cherry an under the radar signing. By the way, posts from Jessep do not count.
As for the players I mentioned? Let me know and I’ll start flooding this thread with links.
Redding was if I remember correctly as he was non-tendered by the Nats but seen overall as a good insurance guy.
There´s a pretty good chance, low scale signings Mike Baxter, Jeremy Hefner, Greg Burke and Anthony Recker will all open the 2013 season on the active opening day roster. Whether they´ll be any good is an entirely different question. Plus, pretty sure we´ll see a couple of more low-scale free agent signings before April 1st this off-season.
And obviously Scott Hairston, Chris Capuano, Chris Young, Ronnie Cedeno, Tim Byrdak and Jason Isringhausen were pretty good low-scale signings for a combined salary of far less than one season of Jason Bay…
And with all due respect to Omar Minaya – who didn´t do as bad a job here as some portray – who besides Dickey was a tremendous “low-scale” signing that worked out well ? Jose Valentin, Chad Bradford and Endy Chavez helped for one year but then all went elsewhere – just like Capuano and now probably Cedeno.
And for all the credit re: RA Dickey, Dickey also was the first cut out of spring training camp in 2010.
The Minaya vs. Alderson comparisons are getting very tiresome. Totally different situations and totally different tasks at hand. Minaya made some good moves and some bad moves. Overall, his tenure was a mixed bag with some goals achieved (winning shortterm, rebuilding a terrible farm system to solid in time) and some not (sustained winning and creating a strong young nucleus by 2009, i.e. the opening of Citifield). Alderson has made some good moves and some bad moves – his tenure is still way too early to evaluate though as his shortterm goal was merely helping the Wilpons avoid bancrupcy while the longterm goal of sustained winning can only be judged a few years down the road.
Well said.
“Not one has panned out. ”
Capuano, Young, Hairston.
All role players, all guys given low money deals on a whim, all out produced their expectations.
So, let me ask you, which is worse, when your back up late inning defensive replacement on a minor league contract (Hu) busts, or when your big money, long term deal, cemented starting left fielder(Bay) busts?
Phillies Scouting Director on d’Arnaud
“I hated to lose him,” said Marti Wolever, Philadelphia’s scouting director. “He can be the centerpiece of an organization for a long time.”
“He’s a very confident kid,” Wolever said. “People can take that the wrong way at times. But he’s confident in his abilities. Some people might misconstrue that as arrogance.”
“I’m happy for him,” Wolever said. “But I hope we figure out a way to get him out.”
‘’I can’t tell you how excited I am to be part of an organization(Toronto Blue Jays) that’s committed to winning and putting a product on the field that the fans can be excited about . . .–R.A. Dickey”
SAYS IT ALL!!!!
Can the Wilpon’s make that claim?
The Wilpons cant and neither can Jessep.
you have a crush on me.
not as big as your crush on Sandy
what else can dickey say? ” i like the money but i hate canada?”
All I really want is the Met organization to have a heart and soul like it used to. That is why I am turned off from it now – I cannot enjoy the mindset many suggest in the way in which winning in pursued.
As mentioned, this goes way beyond R.A. but back to the shift in values this organization had publicly began personifying from the day it handled firing Willie Randolph, to when it began spitting on the average fan with those high ticket prices and forgetting they deserve some ammenties at a ball park as well, to the manner in which they wouldn’t even let David Wright wear a cap in the dugout in honor and memory of those who had fallen on 9/11 on through to the smear tactics they use through leaks to the press.
That’s just me, of course. Had the organization been reflective of a differrent set of ethical standards then I would probably feel bad but accept the Dickey trade. But of course, had the organization had a different set of ethics, there might not have been any Dickey trade at all.
Again, it’s just me but I feel principles have to stand for something in the way one sees things. PLEASE DON’T TAKE THAT TO INFER THAT OTHERS DON’T SHARE THE SAME PRINCIPLES THAT I DO – it just means I might be more idealistic than willing to accept the real world at least as the Mets are concerned. That’s why probably most others can still get the enjoyment and pleasure from the Mets that I no longer can. That’s the price I have to pay for me being me.
Joey — The high ticket prices are primarily because of free agency, sky high player contracts, and the cost of the new stadiums. Someone has to pay for all of this, and unfortunately it’s the fans. Wright couldn’t wear the cap because that’s MLB policy, not the Mets. Now maybe you think the Mets should have just ignored MLB policy, but that’s a different matter.
I want to get back to something we discussed the other day — Alderson’s timetable. Well I went back into the FAN archives and found an interview he did earlier this month, and he never said the Mets wouldn’t be competitive until 2015. And he repeatedly says he is not punting the current season.
I think what he would admit to is that there is a timetable for when a lot of the newer prospects like Wheeler and Syndergaard might be ready to fully contribute at the ML level. But that’s because Alderson chose to build from within and through the farm system. And this is not totally by choice, given the Mets’ woeful finances when he took over. The only other option is to do it by free agency. Which is expensive and raises costs. And then what happens is ticket prices get even more expensive — one of the very things you say you hate about the current Mets.
Whether Alderson’s strategy works remains to be seen. But ultimately, it’s the most cost-effective one.
Here’s the link to that Alderson interview on the FAN. He talks about the timetable in the second half of the interview:
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/audio/19-mike-francesa/sandy-alderson-with-mike-francesa/
Hi Metro,
The point Sandy was trying to make was about being competitors. We can still be a competitive team – as he put it to why he didn’t trade Hairston after we had fallen out of the race. He talked in terms of the kids developing and being ready to play. We both know that is going to take time – two more seasons with the kids getting their feet wet – the kids that are supposed to fill in the missing pieces to the puzzle – is not unreasonable. They are going to have to take their lumps – and that is so often relfected in the so-called “sophmore jinx” So anything earlier than 2015 would be unrealisitic with the path this team has pursued.
As far as ticket prices, the highest price for a single ticket for the Dodgers last season went for $80 That’s for field level. And we all know about them losing attendance and also going bankrupt. And those ticket prices coincided with a roster payroll the same as the Mets.
And if you want, compare the cost of tickets for 2013 for the world series champion Giants compared to the Mets. Last season the Giants had the seventh highest payroll in the majors and check out their pricing for this year – which is also based on dynamic pricing. I think you can see quite a difference with affordable seats in good locations even on the more expensive days through June.
It’s cheaper to see a Giant game than it is a Met game. It was cheaper to see a Dodger game last season. And both cities have a high cost of living like New York City.
Finally, we both agree the Mets did not have money to spend. I’ve also documented where Sandy Alderson said trades are no longer based on talent. He used poor projected attendance figures to justify why he couldn’t re-sign Marc McGwire and thus sent him off to St. Louis for two obscure minor league players. He also said that the Madoff situation had no effect on his operations – that was three months after he took the job – not beforehand. It had no bearing on his decision to re-sign players or go after free agents.
Yes, as we all know now he said the Madoff situation did affect the organization and that teams can’t pursue expensive players when losing $70 million a year. And as the Mets have claimed, they had been losing money ever since 2009. So Sandy knew what he could and couldn’t do and yet made public statements to the contrary. We’ve also seen him slash operations throughout the franchise and that includes the minor leagues. So it becomes a matter of trusting him even when he talks about his plans are for re-building.
Remember, one must go to the actual facts and the actions instead of the words. Yes, re-building might have been the only option avaiable to Sandy and the Mets but how much priority is toward that than it is the ledger book? And how much does the high cost of a roster payroll have to really be passed on to the ticket holders? Those on the west coast certainly don’t have to pay what Met fans are being told to.
http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/story/_/id/7145121/los-angeles-dodgers-slashing-season-ticket-prices-2012
http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/salaries/_/name/lad/los-angeles-dodgers
http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/ticketing/dynamic_pricing.jsp?c_id=sf&y=2013&layout=gameflow#date=05/30/2013
Joey — You are spinning things. Alderson said he wants to be competitive NOW, while admitting that for some players, it may take one or two more years for them to be able to contribute at the ML level.
He never said 2015 was the date we’d have to wait to be competitive. He never even said 2014. He wants it now, but he’s realistic knowing that some of the kids may take time to develop.
Here is a reasonable timetable for some of the kids in terms of successful ML performance:
Harvey- – 2013-2014
Wheeler — 2013-2014
d’Arnaud — 2013-2014
Syndergaard — 2014-2015
So I certainly think, based on this, that by the end of this year — and certainly by 2014 — the Mets can be competitive with their kids playing significant roles too.
And I’m not sure how the Dodgers and Giants ticket prices are terribly relevant because 1) All last season you could get dirt cheap Mets tickets on the secondary market. Heck, they were even giving away free tickets last year. And cheap secondary market tickets have been available for almost every year since Citi opened. 2) Part of the cost of Mets tickets is going to pay back the debt service for the new stadium. The Dodgers and the Giants are not currently dealing with these expenses. So they don’t have to price their tickets so high. Having said that, don’t be surprised if there is a big rise in the cost of Dodgers tickets in 2013.
And please don’t keep citing Alderson and his actions in Oakland. Different era. Different team. Different city and fan base. Different economics. Different circumstances. And even Alderson as a baseball executives is probably changed. I won’t read anything of his Oakland days because the relevancy is highly questionable.
He also said that the Madoff situation had no effect on his operations – that was three months after he took the job – not beforehand. It had no bearing on his decision to re-sign players or go after free agents.
As we discussed that statement was made specifically within the context of resigning Reyes after the 2011 season. He was not talking about the budget he was alloted that winter, which was minimal. He had very little to work with that winter. Peanuts really.
So Sandy knew what he could and couldn’t do and yet made public statements to the contrary.
Uh, no. I thought we went over this. Basically for the first few years he was working in a rapidly changing economic (and legal!) environment. What he said one month may not have been true 5 months later when the financial condition worsened. So of course he’d have to say something different. We discussed this — like how he had to revise the projected 2012 budget during the 2011 season, saying something to the effect “when ownership pushes back, well then we have to change course.”
So I look at the same things and I am NOT seeing a pattern of lying as you say you do. At times Alderson is very careful with his words — very guarded — but he’;s being a GM then, and can’t be totally candid. But as for outright deception and lying? Sorry, I just don’t see it.
Yes, re-building might have been the only option avaiable to Sandy and the Mets but how much priority is toward that than it is the ledger book?
Don’t know what you are really asking. Please explain.
And how much does the high cost of a roster payroll have to really be passed on to the ticket holders? Those on the west coast certainly don’t have to pay what Met fans are being told to.
Again, I don’t understand your point. Someone has to pay for the payroll. If it doesn’t come from ticket sales, it comes from other revenue — like broadcasting fees. And not sure what you are trying to say about West Coast fans. If you live in SF, for example, and have the Mets on cable, you are certainly paying for them through higher cable costs.
And don’t blame the FO for a lot of the venom that some of the NY writers spew with their pens. Davidoff’s smear campaign was his own. And in his column explaining why he wrote what he did on Dickey, he makes that clear. Do the Mets sometimes bad mouth a player? Yes. All teams do that. But the most egregious instances (davidoff) are sometimes the fault of the media and theirs alone.
Can someone PLEASE explain this reasoning to me….
If we were not going to be competitive enough WITH Dickey in 2014….
Then what about THIS trade has made us more competitive WITHOUT Dickey in 2014?
Even 2015? I’ll even entertain 2016….
Please tell me why d’Arnaud without a Cy Young Pitcher makes us better faster than we would be with a Cy Young Pitcher?
This is just bad excuses being made not any reality that can be pointed out…
We didn’t get better or increase our chances of winning sooner…
We just got younger which means you might be able to compete LATER (not sooner) than we could have if we just kept Dickey and built around him!
The contributions of Niese and Harvey are going to be more significant, running through the whole season. . .at about midway through the season we will see Wheeler making an impact. Our starting pitching overall is likely to be better than last year with Dickey.
In addition, we will have solid defense and hitting coming from behind the plate which might result in more than 20 wins for the team. Our knuckleball catching defenders behind the plate were not really notable for anything. . .weak hitters and weak defenders, actually.
We are going to see a much improved team in 2013 is my guess, unless the Mayans were right.
In an ironic twist of fate, my new crocs arrived at home yesterday (and they are camoflage…so totally manly, right?). This is a clear cosmic sign how this trade is going to wind up. Namely, another nihilistic soul-sucking, karma-destroying move that turns the Mets into supposed contenders in 2020.
Blockbuster will depend on what happens with “prospects” Mets got back so right now Toronto looks good for the near future but Mets, eh!
Only the future looks good now for Toronto while Mets wait on “development” of acquired “prospects”.
Hi Metro,
Ike Davis, came up in 2010, 2011 started off well until injury but still 2012 was a struggle – two or three years. Lucas Duda broke in nicely in 2011and struggled in 2012 – two years. Jonathon Niese had his breakout year in 2012 after being called up in 2010 – two years. Dillon Gee has had two nice seasons to date but has still been inconsistent – two years. Bobby Parnell had a good sophomore year followed by decent 2011 and after a shaky start, a very good 2012 – four years. Johann Santana only came into his own in 2002 – his third year in the majors – three years.
So it doesn’t happen over night. I just named five (Santana being a veteran and only used to prove that point) and only one as of yet has developed into the key player one builds upon. The other four have shown to be good players with hopeful futures but have not developed into proficient major leaguers in two, three or four seasons – maybe this season will be their year. But the point is it that for most it takes a few seasons to establish themselves – the Bryce Harpers, Heywards, Strausbergs, etc. are the exceptions and not the rule. So to count on so many from the farm system to produce so quickly is unrealistic and that was not Sandy was saying. There is a difference between being competitive and being a playoff contender and that was the distinction even Sandy was saying.
And what does Stub Hub have anything to do with the way a team sets it’s ticket prices? Those setting the ticket prices on the secondary market are not the teams but the ticket holders who already purchased that seats and are now trying to sell them off. And just like the Mets, the Dodgers and Giants have to contend with the secondary market as well. So they all are in the same boat.
Finally, one cannot dismiss what Sandy said in Oakland and think he has since changed his line of thinking based on his public discussions on what the Mets can and cannot do in their financial situation and his actions taken throughout the organization – not just the payroll. And, if he was referring specifically to Reyes during that press conference in February of 2011 and if NOT HAVING THE MONEY WAS NOT THE ISSUE WITH JOSE, then why did he later on contest the Mets knew they could not meet his asking price EVEN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 2011 SEASON (those informal conversations with Jose’s agent, remember?) when the team had exclusive negotiating rights and long before Miami ever came into the situation? Does that mean Sandy did not have an idea of the market value Jose had coming into the final year of his contract when he made that statement?
Remember, at first he was saying the Mets HAD the money to spend on Jose Reyes if they wanted to then later changed his story to saying that the Mets DID NOT HAVE the money to spend on Jose all along. So what is the truth? If they had the money why did Sandy say they later didn’t? If Sandy felt Jose wasn’t in the best interests in the Mets in the future, why did he say re-signing Jose was a priority? And finally, IF THE METS HAD THE MONEY TO RE-SIGN JOSE BUT DIDN’T WANT TO, THEN WHY WASN’T THAT MONEY NOT USED IN OTHER WAYS TO IMPROVE THE CLUB INSTEAD OF GOING BACK INTO THE COMPANY’S RESERVES? You still don’t think financial considerations dominated all that thinking? Don’t forget a month or so ago I provided a financial breakdown of how much the Mets actually spent after ridding themselves of the Beltran, Castillo and Perez contracts that were a part of the 2011 payroll. That even with the signings of Francisco, Rauch and a few others that along with the increased salaries to Wright, Santana and others their spending was flat – that they did not spend around the $12 million extra that they would have used for Jose.
Sorry for the CAPS – was not meant to shout as it was to emphasize that what you theorized did not reflect what had indeed occurred.
Ciao
Joey — Sure it doesn’t happen overnight, which is why I gave two-year time frames for those prospects. And something you seem to be missing. I don’t think any of those prospects you named was as highly rated as Harvey, Wheeler, d’Arnaud and Syndergaard. Not even Santana. Moreover, Ike was pretty much successful right from the start. It was the freak injury in 2011 that set back everything for him.
There is a difference between being competitive and being a playoff contender and that was the distinction even Sandy was saying.
Where did Sandy draw a line? Point it out because I never read anything of the sort. The line between competitiveness and playoff contender is very thin and very easy to move during the season. I think Oakland proved that this season. No one expected them to be even competitive this season, let a long make the playoffs.
As for ticket prices, it’s not just stub hub. The fact of the matter is tickets on the secondary markets can be had for cheap. And the Mets know it. So I’m not sure what you are complaining about. How can you say you’ve lost disinterest because of high ticket prices when secondary market prices are so low?
And, if he was referring specifically to Reyes during that press conference in February of 2011 and if NOT HAVING THE MONEY WAS NOT THE ISSUE WITH JOSE, then why did he later on contest the Mets knew they could not meet his asking price EVEN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 2011 SEASON (those informal conversations with Jose’s agent, remember?) when the team had exclusive negotiating rights and long before Miami ever came into the situation? Does that mean Sandy did not have an idea of the market value Jose had coming into the final year of his contract when he made that statement?
Wow. I’m having trouble understanding exactly what you’re trying to say. But let me try to reply anyway. The statement was made in the NYT’s article you linked to, right? It was said in the context of the upcoming Reyes extension. From what I understand, they did not want to extend him at the beginning of the season because they wanted to see him play for themselves. Alderson & Co. had never seen him play before for an extended period of time since this was their first year. So they wanted to get a feel for themselves. Then a few months into the season, they approached Reyes about an extension but he said he wanted to test the market. The Mets wanted to keep Reyes, but at their price which was pretty generous (around 100 million) so that’s why they didn’t trade him mid-season. They never thought anyone would go over 100 million but crazy Loria did. So they wanted to sign Reyes but were outbid. It was not that they couldn’t afford to pay more. It was that they didn’t think it was wise to overpay and go higher. And I think they made the right choice.
Alderson never said they didn’t have the money to sign Reyes. Never read that anywhere. Their intention was to sign Reyes but they were outbid. It happens. It happened to the Angels with Greinke. It happened to Texas with Hamilton. It happens all the time with teams.
And the money did go back into improving the club. They did spend money last winter but Alderson made bad bullpen moves.
You still don’t think financial considerations dominated all that thinking?
They did to the extent that they thought it would be grossly overpaying Reyes to go much higher. Every team puts a limit on how much they will pay someone. If they don’t go over the limit, it doesn’t necessarily mean they don’t have the money to do it. It sometimes means they made a business decision that it was TOO RISKY to do it.
Don’t forget a month or so ago I provided a financial breakdown of how much the Mets actually spent after ridding themselves of the Beltran …
Are you mistaking me with someone else? I haven’t been posting here long and wasn’t here when you posted your breakdown. Provide a link and then we can discuss. But initially I will say that I don’t recall Alderson saying he would put the money meant for Reyes back into the team. And how would you suggest they should have used it last winter?
I don’t mind CAPS, and use them myself. What I don’t like is the entire post in all caps, and there seems to be someone here that does that. I don’t even bother trying to read such posts.
The bottom line is all Mets fans will miss RA Dickey, however with his age and the knuckleball he is almost as hard to predict as a prospect. Bottom line because they were patient and stuck to there demands they were able to get it done. Just like with Beltran. Be patient Mets fans our day is coming and it wont take as long as every one predicts. Optimistic as always