The Search For Kirk: An Undiscovered Outfielder

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• darth minaya December 31, 2012 at 10:22 am

  He looks like a 4th outfielder to me. I don’t see the potential for “well above average centerfielder”…at all.

  Good guy to have on the roster, good for a start or two a week, not somebody you want to build around.

  And while I appreciate the Trek references, Terry Collins absolutely did the right thing by sitting him when he showed he was overmatched. No “prime directive” violation there.
  • LongTimeFan December 31, 2012 at 12:27 pm

    I don’t see the well-above average Centerfielder either. His warts began to show the more he played there. (questionable routes and jumps, misplayed the catchable) I think he’s better suited for corner but needs to prove he’s more than platoon type/4th outfielder. His plate approach is awful, his swing and stride, too long. his head, not on the ball. When he does decide to swing, it’s as if he makes that decision even before he sees the ball.

    That said, he has talent and I hope he maximizes it, and soars. .

    I can also see Sandy Alderson trading him as he tries to clean house of players he didn’t select.
• Metstheory22 December 31, 2012 at 10:25 am

  Would we take a Rick Monday type career from him?
  • darth minaya December 31, 2012 at 10:32 am

    Rick Monday made 2 All-Star teams and had a career .804 OPS over 19 seasons. So I’d say “hell yes!” I’m sure Kirk would lock up that career path right now, too, if you asked him.
• Mr North Jersey December 31, 2012 at 10:38 am

  Good read, other than this misrepresented notion of the hitting coach taking away aggressiveness I agree with many of your points made. Kirk was doing well for the 1st 2/3 of his season up with the Mets and I believe Kirk if given the chance can make the adjustments needed to be a key part of the Mets outfield in the future.
• Chicago Days December 31, 2012 at 10:42 am

  Kirk’s 2nd half swoon was very disappointing . i met some of his family at a Summer ‘cue. He was going well that point & they raved about him…as did i. i don’t think we give up on the kid. i agree that his aggressiveness is a key part to his game and he has to maintain it. i don’t think anybody can analytically demote him to 4th OF status…yet. His minor league stats do imply promise at the MLB level.
  i like the kid & will be rooting hard for him in ’13. i also agree that MDD, discounted by many as a 4th OF again, due primarily to K-itus, may surprise us.
  • darth minaya December 31, 2012 at 10:45 am

    To be fair, I demoted him to 4th OFer status before he ever played an MLB game, looking solely at his minor league splits and projecting him based on his age relative to league performance.
    • neekerbreeker December 31, 2012 at 12:24 pm

      .298 avg. a .908 OPS and a .403 OBP as a 23 year old in AAA and you write him off? Not when his glove in center is more than adequate.
  • Tommy2cat January 1, 2013 at 8:00 am

    That article was like reading “War and Peace”. But thank you, Kirk deserve a lot of attention. To boil it down, he needs to take a step back, make minor adjustments to his approach and he’ll be fine.

    Terry Collins should consider a CF platoon with Cowgill & Niewenhuis. It works to both player’s strengths – sort of like Mookie & Dykstra. I think both of those guys will get along and support one another because they’re similar ball players faced with similar challenges. That’s often how ball players learn.

    Kirk is very cool. He’ll have a great year if he’s given the opportunity. I love the way that guy plays the game.
• Hank December 31, 2012 at 10:52 am

  The problem with the “solution” proposed in this post is that it contradicts the new organizational approach. Now I’m all for organizational approaches and what we’d like our players to do. However, you have to also tailor-make approaches to do what is best for the individual player(s). That’s my biggest qualm with the Mets’ approach. If a player is better being more aggressive, you let him. Some think what happened with Kirk, explains Ike’s first half struggles as well.
  • Donal December 31, 2012 at 11:16 am

    Ike’s first half problems were not lack of aggression. He was swinging through first pitch breaking balls. Everybody and their mother knew he would chase the curve. If Ike had demonstrated more discipline and laid off the curve balls, perhaps he would have seen more fast balls to crush.

    and the change in his swing he adopted over the winter probably didn’t help.
    • LongTimeFan December 31, 2012 at 12:34 pm

      It was change in batting stance and less stride, that really got him going.He lowered his arms, hit from crouch, reduced stride, improved timing and pitch selection.

      What should concern us is late last season he said he wants to revert to his old mechanics in 2013 in that he’s more comfortable at plate that way.
  • taskmaster4450 December 31, 2012 at 7:27 pm

    A better reference than Ike is Duda….the Mets messed him up to the point where his confidence was shaken. I only hope, since it appears he will be in LF, that he gets it back. Sadly, I fear that whatever career might have been possible for him might be lost. With such poor defense, he only has a couple of months to show something with his bat.
    • Herb G January 1, 2013 at 12:03 am

      Sadly, I think that Duda doesn’t possess the competitive drive or the self confidence necessary to excel in the major leagues. He seems to have a laid back attitude, when a fire in the belly is needed. It shows in his lackadaisical fielding as well as his too frequent failures at the plate. He has great natural ability and lots of power. If there was some way to adjust his attitude he could be an exceptional player. That said, I am hoping that Lucas finds himself over the winter, that he gets mad at himself for not performing up to his capabilities, and that he develops the focus and intensity that has thus far been lacking. If he can get out of the gate strong, he can build on it all season long.
• Boomer December 31, 2012 at 10:55 am

  >>Personally I think it would be best to stop trying to get this kid to take pitches and let him be aggressive. Kirk has to believe in himself before anyone else will believe in him, but the coaching staff’s misguided attempts at fitting this square peg into a round hole is not the best approach.

  Ain’t gonna happen. This is not just a coaching staff philosophy it is an organizational philosophy from Alderson on down. It is the essence of sabermetrics which values OBP over everything.

  Walks and plate discipline are core to sabermetrics so for better or worse this is what we will be seeing from this organization as long as Alderson is in charge.
  • Donal December 31, 2012 at 11:02 am

    “It is the essence of sabermetrics which values OBP over everything.”

    Seriously? Its 2012, people. Let’s move on from this nonsense.
    • Boomer December 31, 2012 at 11:07 am

      Yes, its nonsense.

      Perhaps you could explain why its happening.
      • Donal December 31, 2012 at 11:13 am

        Because you saw it in a movie and think that is what happens in real life? I don’t know why you made a verifiable false comment.

        Sabermetrics are just a method of evaluating production. OBP isn’t even a sabermetric stat.
        • Boomer December 31, 2012 at 11:17 am

          Don’t be a clown. I live in Boston and have been watching the same thing play out with the Red Sox for years. Why do you think the Sox hired Bill James in 2003 and he is still there today? Just some super coincidence, huh?

          Moneyball was a book, not the philosophy behind it, which is sabermetrics and has been in use since Alderson started it with the A’s in the 80′s. It has since spread to other organizations.

          Just because you get your information from movies don’t make the stupid assumption that others do as well.
          • Donal December 31, 2012 at 11:33 am

            ” I live in Boston and have been watching the same thing play out with the Red Sox for years.”

            2 World Series?

            ” Why do you think the Sox hired Bill James in 2003 and he is still there today? Just some super coincidence, huh?”

            I have no idea what you are trying to say. Yes, the Red Sox recognized his work. Most other teams also have their own in house department for figuring out advanced metrics and applying them to player acquisition.

            “Moneyball was a book, not the philosophy behind it, which is sabermetrics and has been in use since Alderson started it with the A’s in the 80′s.”

            Sabermetrics is not a philosophy. It is a method of using advanced stats to evaluate production.

            ” It has since spread to other organizations.”

            Hey, you got something right. Good for you.

            “Just because you get your information from movies don’t make the stupid assumption that others do as well.”

            Wow, that reading thing is just not your forte. You are the one who says goofy things like “It is the essence of sabermetrics which values OBP over everything”. I know it looked like that in the movie, but that isn’t true.

            Again, it is 2012. Almost 2013. You and several others need to catch up to the rest of us.
            • BadBadLeroyBrown December 31, 2012 at 8:51 pm

              LMAO…..looks like Boomer put you in your place for making ASSumptions….
• Boomer December 31, 2012 at 11:51 am

  >>2 World Series?

  Yea, that would be 2 more than the Mets. So whats your point, the Sox system worked and the Mets’ didn’t? Brilliant.I have no idea what you are trying to say.

  >>Yes, the Red Sox recognized his work. Most other teams also have their own in house department for figuring out advanced metrics and applying them to player acquisition.

  Well then you don’t know nearly as much as you think you do. Theo Epstein was a true believer in sabermetrics and that’s why they brought in James. Alderson was reading and following James since the late 70′s and even had his own, less known stats guy, Eric Walker, who was all about walks and OBP. These were key to Aldertson’s philosophy then and they remain so today.

  >>Sabermetrics is not a philosophy. It is a method of using advanced stats to evaluate production.

  Gee, no kidding. That’s what I said in the first place which sent you on your juvenile rant.

  >>Hey, you got something right. Good for you.

  Again, what’s your point. You acknowledge that sabermetrics is a philosophy for evaluating talent and building an organization and has spread widely throughout baseball but then you throw a temper tantrum when I point out the guy who helped organize this revolution has brought this philosophy with him to the Mets? Have you already started drinking?

  >>Again, it is 2012. Almost 2013. You and several others need to catch up to the rest of us.

  Yes, because you have made such salient points basically backing what I said.

  I think I’ll follow my own opinion, it seems to be a hell of a lot more informed than anything I have seen from you.
  • Joey D. December 31, 2012 at 5:47 pm

    Hi Boomer,

    I think Bill James would be the first to say that many aspects of his methodology has been misused and exaggerated in importance with things attributed to him that he never said. From a web chat probably about nine years ago or so, for example:

    Jeff Bagwell:

    Q – It seems like a lot of people have either twisted or grossly misinterpreted your writing (e.g., Jeff Bagwell as a rookie will win the NL batting title). What mistaken impression about your work would you most like to clear up?

    Well, the biggest surprise about writing is how hard it is to avoid being misunderstood. Whatever you write, somebody will misunderstand it. But you know, I have to take responsibility for the MISunderstandings, too. If I didn’t want to be misunderstood, I should have been clearer to begin with.

    Which leads to other exaggerations or misconceptions about Bill James that is not of his doing whatsoever.

    Money Ball:

    Q – In your opinion, what is better, spending millions on a key posistion player or paying two or three guys less who can all share playing time?

    A – My honest opinion is that there is no systematic difference. 50% of the time option A will be better; 50% of the time option B will be better.

    On Billy Beane bringing revelations to the game:

    A -Do you think Billy Beane is going to revolutionize the face of baseball for years to come??

    Q – Revolutionize, no. He will have some impact in changing some things. But there is powerful inertia in front offices.

    The stolen base:

    Q – Can you please explain in this short space how a philosphy that includes the stolen base is futile, as so many of your contemporaries seem to suggest? The single base hit is more common than all extra base hits combined. So isn’t this risk vs. reward talk just a bunch of hooey?

    A – That’s a misunderstanding. It has never been my philosophy that including stolen bases in an offense was futile.

    Remember the article I posted that suggested it was James that wanted a closer by committee and that the Red Sox manager decided to go against it?

    Q – The closer-by-committee theory seems to have lost it’s luster as the Sox have given the closer job to Brandon Lyon. Do you still feel that this is a viable philosophy, or did the personnel in Boston just fail to live up to expectations?

    A – I have never advocated anything remotely resembling a closer by committee. Neither, for that matter, has anybody else connected with the Red Sox, as far as I know. It’s a straw man argument.

    Now, specifically regarding his professional baseball expertise, please note the following three.

    1) On his ability to judge talent:

    Q – who are the best talents in the red sox farm system? who could help the sox this year?

    A – My ability to answer questions about the Red Sox is limited, but Freddy Sanchez is tearing it up at Pawtucket. And he’s the real deal–an actual prospect.

    2) On trying to mold a player into one’s mindset.

    Q – The recent recognition of plate discipline as an important part of a player’s “make-up” has led me to this question: Is ability to control the strike zone a learned skill, an innate ability, or neither/both? Could you tell us your thoughts on this question and its possible implications?

    A – In pure terms it is no doubt learned. But it is learned so early, in my opinion, that, for major league players, it functions as an innate ability. I don’t think you can change a player. I don’t think that you can teach Ozzie Guillen to take a walk, any more than you can teach Doug Jones to throw a fastball.

    3) And having a statistician tell a baseball player how to play the game – in this case, specifically talking about taking the first pitch:

    Q – Have you spoken to Nomar about not always swinging at the first pitch or do his numbers speak for himself?

    A – Well, if YOU were Nomar, and Bill James started telling YOU how to play baseball, how would YOU react? Let’s not go there.

    Now Bill James knows the limitations of one going by statistical analysis and his responses to those last three questions are the complete opposite of what Sandy is taking it upon himself to do. James knew not to interfere in areas he wasn’t qualified to – should not Sandy – who admitted he knew nothing of the game when he came to Oakland (and learned through the study of James and others) heed the same advice?

    This is not to say that things can’t be learned by advanced stats – just that it should be not taken out of context regarding the PROFESSIONAL game. as Bill admits about himself in regards to judging talent – even minor league stuff – and telling professionals what to do. He certainly does not believe Billy Beane revolutionized anything, as many say he has.

    And that is the point many of us have been making about Sandy’s lack of professional expertise – and something Bill James has no problem recognizing in himself. Thus the questions about Sandy’s qualifications and the credit attributed to him for the past. Bill James has NEVER been a general manager or an assistant general – only a special assistant – so there are limitations to what he can and cannot do (as admitted above).

    I don’t think it’s a case of Sandy going beyond his own mentor, either.

    Attached is that fascinating web chat so there can be no question by others about me making up things.

    http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/3503
    • Met Maniac December 31, 2012 at 8:40 pm

      Great info contained in that comment, Joey. I guess James isn’t as ridiculous as those who misinterpret what they think he’s saying. Geeks will always be geeks. Baseball purists will always have deeper understanding of the game and that will never change. Sorry kiddies, it’s true.
      • Joey D. December 31, 2012 at 10:02 pm

        Hi Maniac,

        It’s because what so much of everything that WE ALL READ (including myself) comes from second hand sources I felt it was important to address the issue. I’ve done it before but this is the first interview (an old one at that) in which so many topics were addressed that focused on James himself speaking so bluntly in terms of what what has been misrepresented as truth. The stolen base, the closer were just a few examples.

        As to what extent his own limitations were, being a statistician I thought it was most revealing when saying he was not the best individual to talk about the farm system and would not dare tell a batter how to hit or trying to change a player’s ways.

        And what many might not realize is that Bill James is way more than just a statistician – he is a renowned baseball historian with an astute knowledge and appreciation of the game from it’s beginnings to the present day. He KNOWS about the game. He is not one to be educated but an educator.

        After reading his answers to those questions, does anyone believe Bill James would come on television and use PPPA to explain why run scoring went down? Would he be so simplistic? Is that the type of person one wants in charge of putting together a major league baseball franchise?
      • Sloatsburg Mets Fan January 1, 2013 at 9:02 am

        “Great info contained in that comment, Joey. I guess James isn’t as ridiculous as those who misinterpret what they think he’s saying. Geeks will always be geeks. Baseball purists will always have deeper understanding of the game and that will never change. Sorry kiddies, it’s true.”

        Why? Because you said so? No one or one system has the market cornered on successful talent evaluation or building championships. The FACT is every team in tn the MLB uses a mix of both disciplines. In fact, I believe the Mets were one of the last to implement this blend of philosophies.

        As for the taking pitches approach, it’s insane to think that it is wrong to have a sound philoshical approach like being selective at the plate or showing plate discipline and making the pitchers work. Do we really think that the FO is in the players ears telling them when to swing and when not to? Come one the examples we are using are Duda, Kirk N, and for the opposite Jordany Valdespin, not exactly Ted Williams, Joe DeMaggio, and Babe Ruth. Could it possibly be that these guys just need some further development or perhaps, they’re just not good enough? I know it doesn’t sound as juicy as someone is trying to turn these player into drones to carry on their evil plan to break every Met Fan’s heart.
      • Boomer January 1, 2013 at 10:19 am

        Joey-

        >>Now Bill James knows the limitations of one going by statistical analysis and his responses to those last three questions are the complete opposite of what Sandy is taking it upon himself to do. James knew not to interfere in areas he wasn’t qualified to – should not Sandy – who admitted he knew nothing of the game when he came to Oakland (and learned through the study of James and others) heed the same advice?

        ………

        >>And that is the point many of us have been making about Sandy’s lack of professional expertise – and something Bill James has no problem recognizing in himself. Thus the questions about Sandy’s qualifications and the credit attributed to him for the past. Bill James has NEVER been a general manager or an assistant general – only a special assistant – so there are limitations to what he can and cannot do (as admitted above).

        With all due respect, the problem is not with Alderson, it is with many of you who frankly haven’t taken the time to understand what is happening with the Mets or in the case of some would just rather rage than look at the facts.

        As I mentioned up above, Alderson admits to reading and approving of much of what James wrote but he never hired him or said he based his philosophy on him. Indeed, I said that Alderson hired his own stats guy, Eric Walker, who put a premium on OBP as a key to success.

        Far too many people misinterpret that to mean that all Alderson cares about is walks. That would be, stupid. Not to mention wrong. Do you want proof? Okay, proof you get.

        One of the first moves Alderson made when he got to the Mets was to install Dave Hudgens as hitting coach. Do you know where Hudgens got his start as a hitting instructor? Under GM Sandy Alderson of the Oakland A’s in 1991. And his philosophy was to “hunt” for your pitch and not swing at pitchers pitches. Guess what, it works and the players by and large like it.

        >>“Hunt your pitch,” he tells his players.
        “We want to do damage in the middle of the plate.”
        “If he doesn’t give you that pitch? We’re walking to first base.”

        >>In the first year of Alderson’s reign, the Mets offense raised their collective on-base percentage 21 points from the year before and vaulted from 14th in the National League to second in that category. They went from the team third-most prone to swing at a pitch outside the strike zone to the second-least. Both Alderson and manager Terry Collins had lauded Hudgens for his influence.

        >>In the process, the team established the sort of offensive identity lacking in years prior. The misconception about improving on-base skills is the process relies on passivity, on cowards willing to pass on pitch after pitch in search of the almighty walk.
        Hudgens shakes his head at that notion. He traffics in aggression. His players verify this.
        “We never sat down and had this ‘Moneyball’ discussion, like we’re going to walk and we’re going to take,” outfielder Jason Bay said. “It was never brought up.”
        Instead, Hudges looked to train hunters. One day recently, a reporter mentioned the practice to second baseman Daniel Murphy.
        “Hunt? Is that what you said?” Murphy’s eyes almost twinkled. “That’s a very good description.”

        http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2012/03/mets_hitting_coach_dave_hudgen_1.html

        As the kids say, read it all. Its interesting and unlike a bunch of guys arguing on the internet, factual.

        What’s even more important, this approach is being spread throughout the Mets organization, from A to AAA ball. For the first time in a long time the Mets are taking a consistent approach on to prepare their players from the day they enter the organization right through the majors. This means they don’t constantly have to redo their approach as they progress through the system for each new manager and by the time they hit NY they are well groomed in the approach and need to concentrate only on executing. As we have seen year in and year out, many players are overmatched when they get to the bigs because they have to learn a new approach as well as a new league. Not anymore.

        >>Here is a chart of all non-pitching prospects that were ranked in the top 25 of the Amazin’ Avenue Preseason Top 50 Mets prospects, mapping 2012 BB% versus their 2011 figure. Note, players who have appeared in less than 40 games were not included:

        >>Of the ten hitters, nine have improved their walk percentage thus far through 2012. And what’s more, that list includes many known free-swingers (e.g. Valdespin, Flores, Lagares).

        >>Even more enlightening is that same split, viewed on the team-wide level. For example, in 2009 the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons walked a grand total of 335 times. This season, as they prepare for All-Star festivities they’ve got 339. And they’re not the only ones.

        You get that? The Bisons walked more times by the All-Star break than they did in all of 2009. That’s incredible. In fact, if you go to the link you will see that the Mets minor league affiliates from A ball on up have all increased their on base percentage dramatically. That doesn’t happen by accident.

        http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/7/9/3144890/mets-minor-league-walk-rates-on-the-rise

        Now you can argue that this is a bad approach and you don’t like Alderson’s approach. Fair enough. But to say he doesn’t know baseball, at least not as well as bunch of knuckleheads like us arguing on the internet, it absurd. He built one of the most iconic franchises in the last half century in the Oakland A’s and also enjoyed great success leading the San Diego Padres. He has been in MLB for nearly 30 years and been has been voted as an Executive of the Year for his success in Oakland.

        Alderson’s focus on OBP is just one, albeit a very big one, of his desires. He also brought in some big hitters and stud pitchers in Oakland to augment his teams. Of course, they had money and as we all (hopefully) understand by now, we do not.

        But you have to start somewhere and almost any player can learn to be more patient and selective at the plate. Those that do become better players for the most part. Those that don’t will probably not stick around.
        • Joey D. January 1, 2013 at 12:07 pm

          Hi Boomer,

          Happy New Year to ya.

          While we of course differ in the way we see things please know much I appreciate how you present your side of the debate and understand where I am coming from without calling me a liar, a manipulator and pathetic – which I know you would never ever do!

          But I do believe you are under-emphasizing the impact of Bill James on Sandy, who has been coined by many as the “grand father of sabermetrics” as well as the financial situation which has been well documented.

          Both trying to tell hitters how to hit and Alderson emphasizing a certain approach goes directly again what James believes. Whoever is correct one could argue, but the fact is that Sandy is doing things his mentor wouldn’t. Has Sandy evolved beyond James? It’s possible too.

          But we must take into account that Sandy is also instituting an organizational mind-set instead of letting his coaches and minor league personnel concentrate on the unique characteristics of each hitter. Terry and Hudgens told Ike to go back to his aggressive style of first pitch swinging when wanted to – despite whatever his first pitch swinging stats might show (they were presented and though my recollection might be wrong, I think it showed he was a poor first pitch hitter compared to others) the point is allowing him to go back to his aggressive type of hitting allowed him to be more comfortable and confident at the plate in his overall at-bat – it wasn’t what he did on the first pitch but how it got him to feel. I won’t get involved with the Kirk issue because I am only an “observer” and don’t how much of what has been said is from knowledge or innuendo – but that, along with Ojeda’s emphasis on how the Mets were telegraphing to the opposing pitcher they were not going to be aggressive on the first pitch – I believe shows a misunderstanding of what James through his statistical analysis wanted to show – which is what causes things to have happened but not an athletic training primer on how to get that to happen. He said, each individual is different.

          That is different than being taught plate discipline – to be able to distinguish as best as possible those deceptive pitches that are going to drop out of the strike zone – or even fall in – , etc. Your guess is as good as mine but I think better minor league coaching throughout the system in that form of batting eye discipline could very well be the cause of the increased walks – not a team methodology.
          • Boomer January 1, 2013 at 12:39 pm

            Joey-

            Well you and I are just going to have to agree to disagree on a couple things. No, I do not agree that James is in any way Alderson’s mentor. I believe that Alderson took a couple of statistical ideas from James and incorporated them into his philosophy of how to evaluate talent, mold talent and build a team. But there is much more to being a GM than just running a spreadsheet. Hell, it would be a lot cheaper to just higher James or better yet his spreadsheets if that was all there was to being a GM. Clearly, its not. And Alderson does have a record of success that also incorporate ideas that are not part of the James philosophy.

            And I do think you are misinterpreting Hudgens’ hitting philosophy. Yes, as part of instructional batting he teaches his hitters to take pitches including not swinging at breaking or off speed pitches early in the count. But the idea isn’t just to teach them to take pitches for the sake of taking pitches. It is to teach them plate discipline with the idea of going after hitters pitches and not going after pitchers pitches.

            For example and from the article I linked to earlier:

            >>On Monday night, Daniel Murphy offered at a 1-1 changeup on the outside. The pitch was probably a strike. No matter. When Murphy came back to the dugout, Hudgens pulled him aside for a refresher course in “the one area he needs to make progress on.”
            “He will get some hits on that (pitch) — because he’s a good hitter,” Hudgens said. “But he’s not going to do any damage on it. And early in the count, 1-1 is early, you want damage.”
            Some hitters, like Ike Davis and Lucas Duda, practice patience at the plate with ease. Others hack with abandon. The goal is not to remodel every player. Hudgens’ job is to nudge everyone in the same direction: Isolate a hitter’s strength — a location he likes, a pitch he prefers — and persuade that hitter to focus there.

            Some player adapt to plate discipline much quicker than others. Free swingers like Kirk can find it more difficult because they are used to hacking away. Often, guys like this have success at the lower levels because the pitching is not as good. But when they get to the bigs they struggle with pitchers who have much better accuracy and better off speed stuff. The only way he will be a consistent major league hitter is when he learns to be patient enough to swing at his pitches. Easier said than done and not every player learns to do it but if Kirk is going to be a major league player he needs to learn to be more patient, one way or the other.

            Finally, I do disagree that teaching plate discipline is not an organizational goal. Look at the stats I provided you showing you the improvement throughout the organization since Alderson took over. That is not a coincidence, it is a strategy. Alderson is not just in charge of the MLB team he is in charge of the entire organization and it makes no sense to say that he is focused on plate discipline at the major league level and it is just a coincidence that it is happening at every level and with every manager he has put in place.

            In any case, Happy New Year to you as well.
          • what January 1, 2013 at 12:47 pm

            Joey, Bill James isn’t some diety that all sabermaticians look up to. He’s just the first person to come up with some of the concepts that influenced advanced stats. In fact, most of his ideas are outdated. Every baseball person I know recognizes this, and I’m sure sandy does too.

            if you really want to knowledge up on this stuff, baseball prospectus is the way to go. Even if you don’t, baseball prospectus has articles for everybody so you should read it anyway. Easily the best baseball website out there.
            • BadBadLeroyBrown January 1, 2013 at 1:31 pm

              “Easily the best baseball website out there.”

              No my find THIS is the best baseball website out there.

              Sabermetrics IMO is just an over complication of baseball…and gives some whom love math or have advanced mathematics skill a false sense of baseball knowledge….

              WTF is war,fwar,uzr pure non-sense…it is impossible to determine how good a player is defensively using statistics lol….trajectory of the ball lol…ever heard of wind? Or playing in a little rain, wet grass, sun in the eye on a fly ball(with glasses)…

              I have nothing against GM’s utilizing some stats when deciding whether to dole out a ton of money to a player….But this SABR business is overkill and for the most part useless
            • Joey D. January 1, 2013 at 1:59 pm

              Hi Boomer and What,

              Looking forward to more friendly disagreements on this subject – should be fun. I think that is what Joe D. wants MMO to be – not something resembling the Hatfields and the McCoys!

              Oh, and I agree it was more than just Bill James – in an article I posted a few days back Sandy also spoke about studying psychological methods and began determining how they could be used in sports along with other areas of analysis from other writers as well when he first came on board in Oakland. Bill James was the foundation for his attempt to learn cause and results and we all know that sabermetrics has since been tremendously expanded by others since that time and Sandy has been a part of that. That’s why I referred to James more than to sabermetrics since I was referring to Sandy’s roots.

              But James was the one that planted the seed that Sandy and others have expanded on – though I do think one should also heed his warnings about the limitations of its usages which I think Sandy is guilty of not doing.

              As far as the Mets minor leagues, remember, Sandy said he wanted to hire a manager that fit into his mindset – and that was Terry Colllins. But don’t also forget that Terry was the Mets minor league field coordinator – hired by Omar Minya no less – in 2010 and it was what Sandy saw that Terry was doing as the field coordinator that made him want Collins at the helm. So the changes in the way the Mets approached their minor league system began with the arrival of Terry in 2010 – not Sandy.

              I don’t think Omar, however, deserves credit for hiring Terry as that was more the result of being forced to fire his former former vice president of player development.

              http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101122&content_id=16173778&c_id=nym

              http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2010/05/qa_with_mets_minor-league_fiel.html
    • neekerbreeker December 31, 2012 at 10:34 pm

      “In pure terms it is no doubt learned. But it is learned so early, in my opinion, that, for major league players, it functions as an innate ability. I don’t think you can change a player.”

      The quote by Bill James above is precisely what I was trying to get at by saying.

      “They say by the time a prospect gets called up to the majors there is little room for development, their tools are what they are, sink or swim, you can’t make radical changes whether it be batting stance, mechanics, or approach at the plate. Now I don’t know whether this is true (I think it might perhaps be less true for younger more impressionable prospects), but I suspect that the Mets’ somewhat overblown focus on taking pitches messed with what got Kirk to the majors in the first place, namely his aggressiveness.”

      I do believe there is an organizational philosophy that emphasizes patience at the plate and strike zone discipline, but I’m not sure this is Alderson’s brain-child. I have a hunch Alderson has a lot less to do with daily baseball operations than we think he does. I believe he is more the administrative lead and he lets his baseball minds do the legwork in so far as implementing organizational philosophy. There is something to be said for having a uniform approach top to bottom, I think organizations that demonstrate cohesive and consistent tenets and execute accordingly set themselves apart (and perhaps above) their competitors. It doesn’t even necessarily need to be OBP, it could be anything, but uniform application of a particular competitive aspect gives you a leg up on organizations who lack uniformity in their approach. Alderson created the structure, the “lattice” so to speak, upon which his baseball minds (DePo and Ricci) cultivated a uniform focus on a particular skill set. Do we know what that skill set is? Do we know it is simply OBP? Nooooooooo … honestly we are taking wild guesses when we try to decipher what precisely DePo and Ricciardi are implementing. It’s the last thing in the world they would want their competition to be privy to. If i had to guess I’d say OBP is certainly part of it, but I am all but certain it’s far more involved.
      • Joey D. January 1, 2013 at 1:51 am

        Hi neekerbreeker,

        Happy new year, first off.

        Doesn’t really matter if Sandy is more the administrator than calling the shots – for if he isn’t he still brought over people who think in his type of manner which is his privilege being captain of the ship and thus the moves being made are still reflective of the way the one on top wants them to be.

        He brought up the lower PPPA to indicate a correlation with a drop of run production which I think is indicative of the mindset he seeks in his people – that and the fact that those who know him agree that when he’s on the job, everyone knows who is in charge. He is firm in his beliefs that he understands the game enough to have it done his way.

        Unfortunately, so does Jeff Wilpon.
    • BadBadLeroyBrown January 1, 2013 at 12:32 am

      So Sandy and company has created there own pseudo-moneyball….

      I think deep down Sandy doesnt like the fact that athletes get paid more than Harvard grads and Mathematicians…lol….
• Hank December 31, 2012 at 12:18 pm

  Best quote ever…

  “Fred Wilpon resolves to continue living his oxymoronic existence as the impoverished owner in a sport that prints money.” – Jeff Passan on the lie the Wilpons keep selling.
  • The real cactus December 31, 2012 at 5:43 pm

    Loria is cheap and abusive to his home market / fans.

    Wilpon spent too much on non-prime players.

    His choice was to throw good money at bad money and be a middle team. Or rebuild the system and go for potential young star talent.

    Which path would you take?
    • BadBadLeroyBrown December 31, 2012 at 8:53 pm

      Which Path is EXCLUDES the Wilpons???
• Metsie December 31, 2012 at 12:50 pm

  What Kirk went through most young kids do…Even ROY players do it’s just that they adjust quicker than Kirk MIGHT have…

  Ike Davis had a horrible midddle of the season the year he came up Hitting .214 in July.
  They left him in (had to pretty much) and he ended on a .330 BA in Sept/Oct

  This is the problem with Kids they will get figured out by the experienced Vet Pitching and they will have to make an adjustment.

  We didn’t let Kirk stay long enough to make the Adjustment, Didn’t give him regular playing time by platooning him with the also light hitting Torres and in general just gave up on him and sent him back down where he got hurt.

  Developing young talent requires development at more than just the Farm.
  You have to develop them once they get to the MLB as well and have the vets and Hitting Coach on the MLB team help him to see what Pitchers are doing to him and how to protect against it so they stop.

  That didn’t happen here….

  I won’t say Kirk will be our regular OFer for years to come, But he is probably better for us than any of the slouches Sandy has waited so long for that they are all that he can get.

  If he can cut his K’s in half he would be in the area of .280BA/.350OBP and thats more than good enough for a corner OF getting League Minimum.
  • Hotstreak December 31, 2012 at 8:26 pm

    I resepively disagree Metsie.

    A corner OF can be a loaf like Duda as long as Duda hits 35 hrs. Duda hits lefties so much better than Kirk. Kirk in CF can get away with 15 hrs and .300-.260 splits as a starter CF as long as he steals 30 bases. Kirk is a 150 s/o guy which really marginalizes him. Its ironic that you are willing to give Kirk a chance and not raw prospects. Kirk when he had that great start last year had a .420 something BABIP. He always struck out but his hits were falling in. Duda could develop further and I would give him 2013 to prove himself. He has tto forget about PPPA and be aggressive tat the plate. By the pitches per plate appearance is another SA fiasco to show I am balanced.
    • DrDooby January 1, 2013 at 8:39 am

      Nieuwenhuis certainy deserves another chance. He’s far less experienced than Duda and 1 1/2 years younger.
      The ceiling pretty much is Nate McLouth ( in his prime).
      A solid 2nd division starting outfielder or a very good 4th outfielder.
      The other two OF spots are of much bigger concern for both 2013 and going forward.
• neekerbreeker December 31, 2012 at 1:08 pm

  There’s a fine line between imposing sabermetric principles organizationally and letting a talented young player find his own way. There has to be enough flexibility in your development structure to allow for players who don’t necessarily mesh with a particular philosophy to nevertheless reach their potential. It’s up to the coaching staff to recognize these traits and not force their methods on players for whom it would be counter productive. That doesn’t mean you abandon your philosophy, it merely means you tailor your approach to players who aren’t perfect fits. I don’t believe this was done in Kirk’s case. A lot of Met hitters took a lot of good pitches last year. from Thole to Kirk to Murphy, to Duda, there’s certainly a cast to be made that the pendulum in 2012 swung too far to the “patience” side triggering adjustments by opposing pitchers who poured in strikes early in counts.
• Joe December 31, 2012 at 2:08 pm

  Rangers are now saying they are looking for a DH/1B to replace Napoli’s numbers.
  How about a 3 team deal w/Duda going to the Rangers, Craig Gentry going to the Diamondbacks and Jason Kubel coming to the Mets ??
  • Herb G January 1, 2013 at 12:32 am

    The D-Backs don’t need another outfielder and I’d rather not add a defensively challenged lefty hitting outfielder like Kubel to our lineup, despite his career high 30 HRs last season. If I were dealing with the Rangers, I’d try to add someone like Familia to Duda and ask them for Leonys Martin. My preference would be to deal directly with the Diamondbacks, but go after Adam Eaton, and if they wouldn’t give up Eaton, I’d ask for A.J. Pollock. Either of these two stellar young outfielders would be an upgrade for the Mets.
• ray sadecki December 31, 2012 at 4:55 pm

  what did mr. spock find when he went to the bathroom on the bridge of the enterprise?
  …………the captains log

  Happy New Years !!!!!!!
  • Joey D. December 31, 2012 at 7:22 pm

    Hi Ray,

    We all know there was no bathroom on the bridge of the enterprise – at least on camera or when the boom microphone was on. Besides, how many times did we see Kirk suddenly rush from the com to the turbo-lift?

    But talking about the captain’s “log”, one time the enterprise went through a magnetic storm and it had a profound effect on Mr. Spock’s Vulcan physiology. He said “Captain, I am experiencing a physical sensation I am not familiar with, I think you humans refer to by using the word “horny”. I request you let me take leave of my duties”. Kirk says “Yes, Mr. Spock, indeed. Request granted”. Before he leaves, Spock turns to the captain and asks “Jim, when you get off duty, can you meet me in my cabin?”.:)
• taskmaster4450 December 31, 2012 at 7:36 pm

  I like Kirk as a player and hope he develops into a solid player. I dont fear his defense believing that he will be adequate in CF (although most are correct in that he is better in RF or LF). He will not make anyone forget Beltran or Cameron defensively but he wont be the worst out there either.

  The Ks are the problem and if he can cut them down, he will be a successful major league ball players. He has above average speed, power, hitting for average, a decent arm, and can catch the ball. While I admit he doesnt excel in any one aspect, he is good enough overall to stick around awhile. However, if he keeps striking out like he did, his career will be spent between AAA and a short term fill in at the ml level.
• gorgeguy December 31, 2012 at 7:43 pm

  Totally agree that the coaching staff was much to blame with this guy. Their incompetence was on full display when they were determined to **”Byrdak” Josh Edgin.

  This article segues in nicely with the “Should the Mets re-up with TC?”: Answer is NO. The whole staff needs to replaced before they screw up some of the other guys.

  **[Addition to Webster's 2012] To Byrdak is to have only 1 left-handed reliever in your pen. As the only lefty, your goal is to use him in a minimum of 100+ games, and usually just to get any left-handed hitter out (even pitchers … from the AL). Usually results in arm trouble and surgery; see Pedro Felciano, 2009 or the NY Mets Bullpen, 2012.
  • ray sadecki December 31, 2012 at 9:33 pm

    george, wouldnt that be the fault of the front office for sticking the team with only one lefty reliever then?
    • gorgeguy December 31, 2012 at 10:00 pm

      Let me preface my argument: I don’t think SA was doing a good job at his position, especially as he blabbed about being buyers then sat idly by watching the ship sink.

      In regards to your question, to a certain degree … yes the GM and ownership have responsibility … however, the Mets coaches knew Justin Hampson was available and was doing well at Buffalo. They finally brought him up in late June, briefly, then sent him down in early July after facing 8 batters total in 3 games. Shortly thereafter, Tim Byrdak ended up pitching 8 times in 10 days! This was a coaching decision.

      I’m fairly certain that if the coaches wanted another lefty, they could have had him. They chose to pitch Byrdak, and pitch him … and pitch him until he was fried.
• matthew balasis January 1, 2013 at 3:44 pm

  A sort of adjustment / clarification:

  A friend correctly pointed out that Kirk’s K-rates, month to month in 2012 and even comparing his minor league K-rates to his major league rates, really don’t give us much information (they’re fairly steady), and that I’d have been better off looking more closely at his batting average relative to pitch count. Namely, how Kirk hit .125 after working the count to 3 – 2 (for the season), he hit .138 on 2 – 2 counts, and (perhaps most telling) on the ultimate hitter’s count, 3 – 1, he hit a measly .231. On the other hand, he hit .417 on 0 – 0 counts, .611 on 1 – 0 counts, and .522 on 1 – 1 counts. Clearly this is not a guy you want going deep into counts. There is no getting around how poorly this kid does when he takes a lot of pitches and how good he can be when he’s aggressive early in the count, and it does fly in the face of SA’s presumed “obp edict” so there was no help for him on the coaching end in Flushing. Kind of sad when you think about it considering it’s a MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL TEAM!
• matthew balasis January 1, 2013 at 3:48 pm

  Oh, and Kirk’s BABIP went from .453 in April, to .396 in May, to .283 in June, to .200 in July. So maybe he wasn’t striking out more, but his attempts at walking more (especially in June when he had his highest walk rate & biggest dip in avg. for a full month) resulted in a ton more soft BIP outs.
  • Boomer January 1, 2013 at 4:22 pm

    I think you are misinterpreting Hudgens’ approach. The idea is not to take more walks, it is to be more selective in the pitches you swing at. This can increase walk rate but that is a by product not a goal.

    >>In the process, the team established the sort of offensive identity lacking in years prior. The misconception about improving on-base skills is the process relies on passivity, on cowards willing to pass on pitch after pitch in search of the almighty walk.
    Hudgens shakes his head at that notion. He traffics in aggression. His players verify this.

    >>In 2011, for example, Hudgens gave succinct instructions to free-swinging shortstop Jose Reyes: Don’t chase high fastballs or breaking balls in the dirt. Blessed by mostly good health, good luck and his own freakish athleticism, Reyes recorded the highest OBP of his career, getting on base at a .384 clip. He did not do so by taking walks. He attacked fastballs.

    http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2012/03/mets_hitting_coach_dave_hudgen_1.html

    Kirk’s problem appears not to be trying to walk to much but swinging at bad pitches. In fact, I would love to see a stat on how many Ks Kirk took last season that were actually balls.

    >>Hitting coach Dave Hudgens noted teams have exploited Nieuwenhuis by putting breaking balls in the dirt, then throwing high fastballs above the strike zone that Nieuwenhuis was prone to chase.

    >>”He chased some a little bit. He’s got to learn to lay off that fastball up,” Hudgens said. “It’s a ball for the most part. They’ll try some soft stuff down, and then they try to elevate the fastball. It’s just an adjustment he’s going to have to make. They try that on a lot of guys, and you’ve got to be disciplined. It’s tough, because you see that ball so good. It’s close to your eyes and you see it good, so you react. You just have to learn to lay off it, because you can’t catch up to it.”

    http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/52904/kirk-demoted-for-baxter-return

    Guys like Reyes, a notorious free swinger, Wright, who got off to the best start in his career in 2012 and Beltran all thrived under Hudgens instruction. Let’s see what Kirk does this year before making any calls.
• matthew balasis January 1, 2013 at 5:55 pm

  Yeah but Reyes was a great contact hitter which was never Kirk’s strength. Hudgens didn’t seem to have the right tool in his bag of tricks to help this particular kid and this particular kid’s skill set. I saw Kirk early in the season fight off that high inside pitch and bloop it into left, not so in June / July. Thole and to some degree Duda who are both far more selective didn’t seem to do much better. Wright got off to that incredible start then he really fizzled in the second half with a big jump in his k’s & a drop in BB’s. Pitchers adjusted by attacking the strike-zone early and the Met lineup had no answer for it — even Murphy’s walks dropped while his K’s went up from July on (Tejada’s K’s went from 25 in the first half to 45 in the second). Really, just about the entire team (Ike was the only exception) did worse with more K’s & fewer BB’s in the second half. Consider for a moment team OBP month by month: Mar/April .341, May .327, June .321, July .312, Aug .303, Sept .294. Kirk’s swoon was an extreme version of a problem that was endemic to the entire lineup. Whatever approach or philosophy Hudgens instituted worked wonderfully when it was novel but as it became familiar it turned into a liability.
  • Boomer January 1, 2013 at 6:36 pm

    Yea, but it really shouldn’t have. It’s not a trick or some sort of subterfuge, it’s merely a tool to get hitters to be more selective and swing at their pitches. And Hudgens has been teaching this system to ML hitters for decades so it would surprise me if pitchers just started catching up to it in the middle of 2012.

    Again, taking strikes early in the count is not part of Hudgens philosophy. Taking pitches to get to your pitch is. No system is perfect and adjustments probably have to be made on both sides but there is no denying that every hitter has hot and cold zones even in the strike zone. All Hudgens system is designed to do is break down where each hitter’s hot zones are and have them attack pitches when they are in that zone regardless of the count.

    Guys shouldn’t be fighting off high inside pitches, they should be taking them because they are balls. Kirk hasn’t been the most patient of hitters and was always known to hack away. Sometimes you get away with being undisciplined for a while but it catches up to those who aren’t gifted hitters like Reyes.

    As to the team’s OBP going down, no doubt. But I also attribute a lot of that to the players and not the strategy. The Mets finished the year with a team OBP of .316. Position players below .316 include Kirk, Ike (who had a really rough start to the year and while his power numbers came around he still wasn’t the hitter he was before getting hurt), Hairston, Thole, Nickeas, Valdespin, Bay and a handful of others who had spot duty.

    The Mets, with a much more potent and healthy lineup in 2011 finished second in the NL in OBP at .335. As of now I’m writing off 2012 as an aberration due to a young lineup and one full of injuries and frankly, bad players.

    But as always, the proof will be in the performance going forward.
• Joey D. January 1, 2013 at 6:09 pm

  Hi Boomer,

  Thanks for the attachment about Hudgens but remember one does not usually get the pitch he wants to hit – its the job of the pitcher to make sure that he doesn’t – but in my case it wouldn’t have mattered even if hitting off a tee-ball.

  But being selective is something I’m sure the batting coach would admit isn’t a new idea – it’s being able to teach it properly and the ability for the player to learn – based on each individual’s strengths and weaknesses. When that article referred to Ted Williams, it reminded how he was able to turn Ed Brinkman (a shortstop for the Washington Senators) who couldn’t hit even .190 in three of his last four seasons (and had been in the majors for six years) into a .266 hitter. That was 43 years ago.

  Which comes to another important point.

  Hudgens was absolutely correct when he said, better discipline would naturally result in getting on base more often and getting on base should be the goal. But what is so new about that?

  I’ve attached this many times before, however, if one looks at OBP over the course of many decades, the range in percentage over that of simple batting average has been relatively steady. For example, look at 1969, when the strike zone became smaller and the height of the mound decreased by six inches as it is basically now, compared to 2012. In the year of our Miracle Mets the league batting average was seven points lower than this past season which meant less hitting yet the OBP for that season WAS ACTUALLY ONE POINT HIGHER than this past one. 43 years ago and the players of that era who didn’t produce the hits players today are were managing to get on base a lot more ways other than a base hit than those today.

  If one looks at the OBP there have been no big jumps the past three decades other than the steroid era and that the highest percentage range of getting on base above batting average actually was for a small period between the late forties and early fifties – more than sixty years ago. The lower range in the mid-sixties was a result of the enlarged strike zone which was unfair to hitters.

  This is what many of us are trying to get at and which even Bill James hinted in that interview – too many are getting crediting for revelations in the game in which there has been no revolution.

  So I think fans of sabermetrics have to remember that the game wasn’t invented a few decades ago and neither was the way it should be played and taught. OBP – considered so important today – was seen as part of the game. It didn’t need to be drummed into players as much as it was the fans so they could better appreciate the finer aspects of the game.

  And maybe that is why Sandy Alderson placed so much emphasis on how OBP formulated his thinking in his early years as a baseball executive – he came across something that might have been seen as a revelation for him but something those inside the game already knew.

  http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml
  • Boomer January 1, 2013 at 6:57 pm

    Joey-

    A couple things.

    First, I’m not a fan or a non-fan of sabermetrics. I was just acknowledging that Alderson has been along with a fan of other stats when evaluating talent trying to mold a team. Second, I think a lot of people misunderstand sabermetrics. It was not intended to reinvent the game, it was just designed to help people look at statistics differently when evaluating players.

    I agree, there hasn’t been an appreciable gain in OBP over the years. But what there has been is a significant increase in how that stat is evaluated and ranked as opposed to other stats such as RBIs and and BA.

    And your absolutely right about Williams. Not only was obviously a lethal hitter but, and this is the part that so often gets overlooked, he was deadly patient hitter. Rarely if ever did he swing at a pitch that was out of his zone and that as much as anything made him great. And that is at the heart of Hudgens system. No, its not new, Not much in the game is with the exception of polyester. But that doesn’t mean its not a good system.

    And, if being patient worked for arguably the best hitter of all time, a guy who opposing pitchers feared to the point of abstraction, how can anyone make the case it can’t work for a guy like Kirk who pitchers aren’t exactly having night sweats over?

    Anyhow, the flu is starting to kick my butt so have a nice night. I’m out.
    • what January 1, 2013 at 7:17 pm

      “In the year of our Miracle Mets the league batting average was seven points lower than this past season which meant less hitting yet the OBP for that season WAS ACTUALLY ONE POINT HIGHER than this past one. 43 years ago and the players of that era who didn’t produce the hits players today are were managing to get on base a lot more ways other than a base hit than those today.”

      That’s because pitchers also became aware of the importance of obp so they countered the hitters efforts to increase it.
      • Joey D. January 1, 2013 at 9:09 pm

        Hi What,

        “That’s because pitchers also became aware of the importance of obp so they countered the hitters efforts to increase it.”

        Does that mean before then pitchers felt those who got on base due to a walk had less of a chance of scoring than one who got a hit? Or that hitters thought those who get on base more due to a hit had a better chance of scoring than if they got a walk? Or that batters would rather record an out and see their batting average go down than take a few pitches for a free pass?
        • what January 1, 2013 at 10:33 pm

          well yeah. I know it doesn’t make any sense. But apparently people back in the day were too stupid to realize this, because everything i’ve seen leads me to believe that people only cared about batting average, also home runs, rbi’s, and stolen bases.
          • Joey D. January 1, 2013 at 11:10 pm

            Hi What,

            I understand what you’re getting at – and indeed appreciate pointing out how the game was portrayed at the time so influenced your perception. That is an indication of how the game was seen by the media and the fans and also how the owners tried to publicize their stars to the max (kind of Jeff Wilpon when he referred to that deep right field being exciting because it could create inside the park home runs).

            That was, however, not reflective of those inside the game of course. Far from it.

            For example, fans came out to see Sandy Koufax strike out everybody in sight but Koufax said strikeouts look good in the record book but a pitcher is better off throwing less pitches and letting his fielders do the job – and that the strikeout was deemed necessary in certain situations only. In fact, I believe he said there was only one time when he was actually trying to strike out batters for purposes other than that reason – that being the last inning or so of when he was going after his perfect game back in 1965

            Kind of like watching a football game – how many of us really understand the complex strategy behind those plays and notice the little things that make them work?
    • Joey D. January 1, 2013 at 7:25 pm

      HI Boomer,

      Most important is that I’m sorry you came down with the flu – what a way to end one year and start the next one. Rest it and don’t try to get back to doing things too quickly. We all know what you’re going through.

      Did you know that a rule on walks was changed as a direct result of Ted Williams? At the time, to qualify as a batting leader one had to accumulate a certain amount of at-bats – not total plate appearances. With Ted’s great eye and pitchers just wanting to walk him in any event, he was leading the league with walks and thus often would fall short on the amount of at-bats to qualify in the official leader records.

      What you said about sabermetrics is completely correct. it helps people look at statistics differently when evaluating players and what causes what to occur during a game. Same with fans appreciating other stats as opposed to other stats such as RBIs and and BA. It is a primer for fans but not a continuing education unit for professionals. And to apply such stats to validate new approaches in the game really shows a superficial knowledge of what the game is all about.

      That is why I gave the example of Brian Kenny contesting an 8th place hitter with a poor batting average but with an extremely high OBP would better help the team batting leadoff. Larry Bowa and Mitch Williams explained to him no way that batter would be pitched the same way batting lead off as he is batting eighth and getting on base anywhere near the way he does in the eighth hole.

      Advanced stats are something that professionals need limited reference to as was the case decades ago when all teams still had a statistician on the payroll. Yes, it helps in evaluating the opposing team but that is also the reason for advance scouts – and if it found that a guy is suddenly having trouble with an inside breaking pitch that is of more importance than any stat can reveal. All the stat does is show he is in a slump – not the reason for it.

      Take care of that flu!
      • ifthevansrockin January 1, 2013 at 8:08 pm

        my take on the purpose of SABR is that the society (the S) was looking to translate the raw stats into the only things that really matter in BB, runs and Wins. really a very simple concept, that is incredibly hard to do, and takes a ton of analysis (number crunching).

        I also look at it as trying to settle the age old debate of which player at a position was “better” when you are looking at different eras, or type of player.

        so, I googled and this is on the Wiki page, which seems to agree:

        “sabermetric measures are usually phrased in terms of either runs or team wins. For example, a player might be described as being worth 54 offensive runs more than a replacement-level player at the same position over the course of a full season, as the sabermetric statistic VORP can indicate.
        Sabermetrics is concerned both with determining the value of a player or team in current or past seasons and with attempting to predict the value of a player or team in the future.”
• sarge69 January 1, 2013 at 8:59 pm

  I think his numbers in AA/AAA are probably what he will be in majors and possibly better when he learns to stay away from the slow inside and down stuff and the high and away fastball.
  He has the speed and has shown that he can cover CF and is a tough dude, giving his all on every play.
  I hope that in ST Hudgins works with him on this hole in his swing and as to the avg when taking more pitches, I think the philosophy adopted by SA and Hudgins/Collins needs to be tweaked and stressed to younger players that if you see “your hitable” pitch, swing and only work the count later.

  I think that Cap Kirk can be our long range solution in CF, he has awesome opposite field power also, just have to fix his swing and then he can be one of the OF anchors many years for Mets.