Which is also no guarantee of anything in the future. Dickey had one outstanding year and is now 38. He could blow out his arm or shoulder, hell he could even break his wrist moving a couch.

There are no guarantees in sports which is why they play the games.

The bigger point is that there is no sure thing unless they’re already doing it. We’ll talk in three years about Harvey, and four to five years for Zack and this new kid and we’ll see how they turned out. Hopefully it will be great.

Dickey, on the other hand, is a 20 game winner.

The mistakes won’t happen again. Whether the luck changes – who knows…

Looking back at recent 1st round college pitching picks,
Matt Harvey (2010) looks highly promising – and could very well exceed the ceiling most analysts placed on him after the draft. He failed to make the BA Top 100 list prior to 2011 as there were doubts about him remaining a SP.
Brad Holt (2008) regressed after a promising debut and now looks like a journeyman. Ceiling not reached.
Eddie Kunz (2007) was considered a quick advancing reliever – but failed.
Mike Pelfrey (2005) was considered an elite prospect out of college – but failed to reach his ceiling, instead settling in as a solid # 4ish caliber SP.
Phil Humber (2004), the # 3 overall pick in the draft and considered a “safe” future # 2 SP had his arm shredded at Rice – like so many of his alumni there – and is hanging on as a fringe # 5 SP bouncing around from organization to organization these days
Aaron Heilman (2001) was also considered a “safe” pick who was bound to become a quality # 2/3 SP within short time – and eventually became a quality setup reliever for a few years.

So, if Harvey actually does reach or exceed his ceiling, it´d be the first time a Mets 1st round pick college P pick of recent history has done so in over a decade.

And since a lot of people seem to be going crazy over BOS RH Matt Barnes, a 2011 draftee, yes he dominated in 2012. However, he did it in Low A ball – at the same age as Zach Wheeler was performing well in Double A ball – and then pitched pretty well in High A ball, though with significantly less dominance than in Low A. He gets a lot of typical BOS prospect hype. But let him dominate Double A and Triple A. Another high BOS pick Anthony Ranaudo also has received a bunch of hype in recent years. He has yet to make it out of A-ball.

Any early favorites you have for the upcoming draft?

LMAO….Omar has a history of being one of the best talent evaluators out there…which is one of the reasons Sandy tried to keep Omar on his staff when he was hired.

” You have to think that on a good team guys like Kirk, Mejia, Familia, and even Edgin might not have to be on the team.”

Another funny comment…Lets say the players you mentioned arent ready and they wouldnt be called up on a good team…Who’s fault is that??? Who put this bad team together…lol…Not Omar

But, going back to generation K the first pitcher up was jason Isringhausen – like harvey he had a terrific first year: 9 – 2 record over 14 games 2.81 ERA 93 innings pitched. Back in 1995.

The next season he was hit with the dreaded sophomore slump going 6 – 14 with a 4.77 ERA in 27 starts. He also had a junior slump going 2 – 2 with a 7.58 ERA before he was knocked out with an injury and didn’t play at all the following year.

He did come back with another team and became a fine closer – but well after the Mets gave up on him.

Bill Pulsipher also came up in 95 – got injured and didn’t play again ’98 when he was traded.

Paul wilson – the number one drafter player – the next Tom Seaver – stunk from the start 5 – 12 with a +5 era before he was injured (1996) and he didn’t pitch in the ML again until 2000 – for another team.

So, when people bring up Generation K there’s a good reason. Nothing is sure and let’s put a three year mark on Wheeler, harvey and others before we start evaluating them.

They’re up out of nessesity because they’re cheap and there’s no better option. A great team and they’re still in AA or AAA where they belong. Either maturing or waiting to be called up do to injury. Duda, too, wouldn’t likely be a starter either. Lets not all of a sudden say Omar was a genius at drafts or IFA signings. He’s been average, basically about where the Mets have always been. Ike and Harvey, so far, are his gems. Tejada may prove to be really good too, but not yet. It just shows how long you really need to accurately judge these deals. Far too early for Sandy, and even Omar its still in question.

Rotation: Santana, Harvey, Niese, Gee, Wheeler – That’s a very competitive rotation. The bullpen will need some work, but it should look like this @ 7/13:

Bullpen: Francisco, Parnell, Familia, Mejia, Ramirez, Edgin, Carson/Laffey/Gorski – again, not terrible.

The line-up should have fewer false moves (I’m taking poetic license & signing Scott Hairston b/c SA in the stall adjusting his watch):

cf Niewenhuis/Cowgill
2b Murphy
3b Wright
1b Ike
rf Hairston/Baxter
c d’Arnaud
lf Duda/Turner
ss Tejada
Pitcher

Bench: Buck, Turner, Baxter, Cedeno/Valdespin, Kirk/Cowgill

We have fewer question marks entering this year than last, and much less dead weight.

Expectations:

1. Kirk will maintain last year’s early season positive performance in a platoon situation with Cowgill.
2. Ike will have a much more solid season.
3. Murphy will continue to improve in the field and at the plate.
4. Parnell will continue to improve
5. Turner and Baxter will have more active and integral roles in an outfield rotation.
6. Either Duda or Valdespin will be gone by spring training as part of a package for a quality reliever or bona fide OF prospect.

Issues:
1. Santana remains something of a question mark, as the issue is no longer whether he can pitch, but whether he can sustain his effectiveness. He was awesome early last season. Can he maintain it?
2. Can d’Arnaud remain healthy through a full season? We know he’ll start the year at AAA, but can expect an early call-up if he’s healthy.
3. Can either Duda or Valdespin achieve consistency at the plate?
4. What will Wheeler’s actual impact be?

I like the issues facing the team this year much better than last season. Last year question marks surrounded Santana, Chris Young, Wright, Davis, Bay and the entire bullpen. As stated earlier, we’ll have much less dead weight and a much better sense of the skills of our individual ball players and what will be necessary to elevate each ball player’s game.

I don’t know if it will be reflected in the standings, but I think this year’s team will be more competent. If Terry Collins has a talent, its that he knows how to utilize his entire roster, which derives from his knowledge of the Mets entire farm system & managing these guys for 2 years now.

I think we’re going to be a lot better than most people expect because we’ll be more consistent throughout the entire season. The ML squad is solid, if not spectacular, and the farmhands are more ML-ready.

That is the problem with judging GMs based solely on their immediate performance. The book is never closed on them until 4-6 years after they leave.

Would have won us the series vs the Dodgers and maybe they don’t play so flat the next two weeks.