12
2012
The Dangers Of Being Prospect Drunk
An article by 
Prospect Wil Myers and others head to Tampa Bay for James Shields and Wade Davis.
In the past an as recent as Monday, I’ve referred to so many Mets fans being “prospect drunk”. What I mean by that is that they insanely go berserk for these overly hyped prospects who to a great degree never pan out. When the Royals traded Myers and and some other prospects to the Rays for two quality major league pitchers who are not number two and five starters in their rotation, many in the Mets blogosphere and twitterverse went ape shit. (pardon the phrase).
It’s as if they completely devalued the only two sure things in the deal; major leaguers James Shields (15 W, 3.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 223 K, 59 BB) and Wade Davis (2.43 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 157 ERA+).
Almost as if on cue, I came across this post by SNY’s Ted Berg on his blog Ted Quarters who writes:
This is as much for me as it is for you, as I’m as guilty as anyone of getting caught up in the hype around big-name MLB prospects. But most MLB prospects suck, and it’s important we not lose sight of that.
I don’t know why that’s important. Actually, it’s not important all you want. Continue overhyping prospects all you want. But before you start swooning for some dude with a cool name and a strong reputation that you’ve never seen play, you should probably check out this post from Royals Review last offseason.
Players ranked in Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects “bust” — i.e. contribute little to nothing at the big-league level — nearly 70 percent of the time. 70 percent! And Baseball America is awesome at what it does. It’s just that trying to figure out which baseball players will be good and which will suck is an extraordinarily difficult task.
Ever so eloquently, he makes my point and also links to a post that most Met fans need to read, if only to bring them back to earth on the subject of prospects and hype.
I’ve said this before, but I feel very bad for pitching prospect Zack Wheeler who seems to be the poster boy for this future Mets renaissance that is coming in 2014. Or is it 2016 now?
As if he already doesn’t have enough weight on his shoulders from the burden of being Sandy Alderson’s lone quality acquisition, and one that cost the team Carlos Beltran who has posted an .879 OPS as an ex-Met, the expectations for Wheeler keep piling up and up. Some already are penciling him into the opening day rotation if you can believe that.
We need to stop gloating over these prospects who essentially go poof in the night more often than not. The last two number one Mets prospects; Lastings Milledge and Fernando Martinez are now playing in the outer reaches of the Twilight Zone.
Lets temper those expectations and lets stop going cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs over other team’s prospects too. They bust equally as much as Mets prospects do.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 19 | .548 | 0.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 22 | .476 | 3.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 6.5 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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Joe, I said at the time if I was going to be angry for the Mets not being involved in the deal it might have been for the opposite side of the trade. I would have loved for the Mets to have traded prospects for Shields and Davis even with us being pitching rich. You could then trade Dickey to net back some of the prospects lost. Yes I would have even given up the highly esteemed Wheeler as part of that trade. I know we didn’t match up, which around Mets blogs seems to never enter the equation, but don’t think I wouldn’t have sent Flores, Wheeler and a prospect for those 2 pitchers.
I’d give up any of our prospects in a trade, if the return was worth it.
Funny, Joe D, you said the same thing most of us said, but of course, we were pegged as ha-ters just because the person who acquire wheeler. that is why i have not said anything negative in his regard. but i do feel this keep as good as his stuff is will have all the pressure in the world to deliver for mets fans is not even gonna be funny. once he comes up we’ll be thinking and talking playoffs because that is what is being made to believe, sandy alderson has done nothing for this team, yet his lovers keep mentioning wheeler as this great acquisition, all the pressure in the world will be upon him due to the lack of good players being acquire during sandy’s tenure and we’ve seen many players failed big time when the spotlight of NY hits them in the face. I do hope he becomes an ace for us, but i really feel he’s been put in a position to fail miserably without having thrown a single pitch in the majors..
You knocked it out of the park. Nice job.
Joe,
Spot on, grat post. Due to the shifting economics and value of those “potential” first six controllable years, everyone in baseball is overvaluing these prospects. Yes, the Mets need a young OF bat and C, but I don’t blame Alderson for holding out for two “top” prospects that are risky but perhaps carry a little less risk. For every Trout there are 100, maybe 200 guys that look like the “real deal” that don’t live up to the hype. I still think they will keep RA, and the risk of investing in him over the next 3 years is lower than taking a chance on a few lower prospects.
The Prospect/Proven Major leaguer argument is 50/50….
I know we all would take back the Scott Kazmir for Zambrano deal.
We would do the Johan Santana deal today yesterday and the day after that.
How about the Doyle Alexander for prospect John Smoltz
Carlos Gonzalez for Matt Holliday
________________________________________________________________
Many examples of success and failure from both sides…the only difference is prospects usually have higher ceilings and bigger returns if they pan out….and coincidentally lower floors
The reason why Mets fans went prospect crazy is simple…Dickey is a “38yr old VET” knuckleballer and he will NOT be around when the Mets are a good baseball team the potential prospects that the Mets will get in return for Dickey WILL be around if they pan out of course….We are in no need to hold onto Veteran players especially since the Ownership and front office dont want to pay them. So the most logical thing to do is trade them away for young players with high upside under team control
I still think it’s in the could go either way with Dickey as what is best for the Mets which is exactly why they haven’t done either one yet.
The reason why Mets fans want prospects is they know that the organization basically has two at the moment that have any value to bring back players. Before Wright signed his deal, the Mets had 7 pieces to trade (Dickey, Wright, Davis, Niese, Harvey, Wheeler, and Flores). The problem with such a list is that most of the players, if they filled a hole when traded, opened up another. Look at the Blue Jays: they made the deal with the Marlins giving them a bunch of minor league players yet still have stuff to trade. The Mets…very little.
Somebody posted an article a couple of weeks ago showing the returns teams got back for reigning cy young winners. It was pretty pathetic. If SA doesnt feel he is getting a good return he still has the option to keep Dickey. If he gives him away for nothing useful then fans will really complain, wont they?
That is why an organization has to develop a ton of talent. It simply cannot get by with a few prospects trying to emerge every couple of years. Look at the Mets now…what do they have? Wheeler and Flores are the only two (maybe throw in one or two more) who are decent prospects at AA or above. Their AAA team has been recycled fillins for the past couple of years. Why is that? Because the organization brings in players who cant get past St Lucie. Why isnt Thole being pushed aside? Because there is no catching prospect near the ML level. What about a RH power hitting OF? Vaughn is the closest and he is stuck in A ball. Who is going to be the AAA OF this year? Den Dekker and a couple of 30 year old journeyman players. Hell, even Fred Lewis is gone-the Bisons best player.
If 70% of prospects bomb, which sounds accurate, a team better have 8-10 good prospects at the upper levels ready to attempt the jump to the next level. It is vital to remember other teams get “prospect happy” too but the Mets wont acquire any big league talent since they have no prospect base to tap into. Teams simply arent going to give up major league talent for a bunch of guys in A or rookie ball.
It is nothing more than a numbers game and successful franchises (with the exception of the Yankees the last decade) tend to have a ton of prospects moving towards the major leagues. The more a team acquires, the better the chances and a GM needs only to be right once in a while. How were the fortunes of the Braves changed by trading Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz? Every team is looking for the young gem and when they are ridding themselves of ml talent, that is what attracts their attention. But then again, the team getting the ML player is not assured of a win either like in the Roberto Alomar trade (granted the pieces sent to the Indians amounted to nothing but the Mets at least has Escobar to trade).
There is always a risk but when there are a bunch of prospects at the AA or AAA level, a team can make some moves. When the entire organization has 2 players at that level which will capture the attention of other teams, trades become almost impossible. And this is where the Mets find themselves.
Like him or not Cerrone has very good contacts inside the mets organization. This is his perspective:
Sandy Alderson’s top priority this winter is to acquire a young hitter. The easiest way to do this is by trading R.A. Dickey or Jon Niese. The Rangers and other teams are genuinely interested, and have the young hitters to trade, but (for now) they’re exploring other options.
Meanwhile, in case a trade doesn’t happen, or in case Niese is the one that gets traded, the Mets are discussing a contract extension with Dickey because they don’t want him to leave after next season. Dickey wants a deal, but the Mets can’t ink him to one until the trade market has played itself out…
In short, it’s a waiting game. Dickey is waiting on the Mets, who are waiting on the trade market. Dickey thinks he should be paid X, the Mets think he’s worth Y. Teams will give one prospect to get Dickey, the Mets would like two. The Mets will trade Dickey in the right deal, but they’ll sign Dickey if they don’t.
It’s not about ‘dragging feet,’ or disrespect, or spending or not spending money. It’s about exploring ways to make the overall team better, and eventually someone will blink. – quote.
This is what I have been saying too. Everybody wants to go bananas on dec 11th because nothing is done yet? its the day the mets lost all respect?
A little over the top, Isnt it?
“In short, it’s a waiting game. Dickey is waiting on the Mets, who are waiting on the trade market. Dickey thinks he should be paid X, the Mets think he’s worth Y. Teams will give one prospect to get Dickey, the Mets would like two. The Mets will trade Dickey in the right deal, but they’ll sign Dickey if they don’t.”
BINGO
Like him or not Cerrone has very good contacts inside the mets organization. This is his perspective”
You mean the same guy who has “sources” yet never, almost never is right? What exactly is he saying that we’re not seeing with our own eyes?? He’s nothing but a mets buttlicker to get his 2 minutes on air to talk about the “Pulse” of the mets fans, give me a break…
Well as much as you or I dislike the fact Alex, it is clear at this point he does have sources. Not saying he might not have an agenda with what of those sources he reveals but lets not pretend that most don’t do that. I will give him credit on one major one that kinda sealed his fate years ago. He guessed… uh sources told him the Santana deal and the Mets were still in it when others were proclaiming no shot. Since that point he has been at least right some of the time which leads me to believe he does have some sources. Are the Mets using him for propaganda? I am not sure. But considering they basically pay his salary, I would hope they would be using him to some extent.
what???????????????????? Were you watching ESPN??? Are you serious?? Tim K was all over that before the news broke out, come on dude.. credit? 5 years ago everyone knew santana was a met.. EVERYONE!!!
Actually I remember when everyone was saying the Mets were out of it Cerrone kept saying about rumblings, grumblings etc. Again, I am not going to waste time to research all of it but keep in mind that is exactly when he went from the top Mets blog in terms of views to megablog.
Actually, until it was announced that he negotiating an extension with the Mets, he was pegged for the red Sox. I had Yankee fan friends sweating to death because they figured he would all but guarantee the Sox a World Series. Some of them even called to thank me when the deal with the Mets was made public (hey sports fans are weird).
Alex,
Sorry to say this but you my friend are wrong on this one…..Cerrone has Contacts/sources…his main sources are….
1.Google search engine
2. MLBTradeRumors.com
3. Mets PR man Jay Horowitz…Cerrones boss who tells him what Mets propoganda to spew….and also tells him when to do a Mets fan confidence rating
LOL, you are right to some extent on that.
But #3 is certainly key. To say he has no baseball sources though at this point is just denying the obvious. Again, not saying those sources aren’t using him or have an agenda… but hell doesn’t every source?
LMFAO @ Leroy…….
Great post JoeD!
I think if anything Mets FO needs to focus on signing the draft picks you value and that you commit signing money to, price of doing business in baseball, instead of over hyped prospects on other teams looking for partners in trading them away.
Getting MLB ready players, Shields, etc, is more apt to turn out better for your team than waiting and hoping that that power RH bat can plug that hole in his swing.
Oakland can take chances like this since they really are not in big market with demands as fans in NY make of Mets.
Yes, I agree, getting MLB proven value for RA, if indeed traded, is best for this team not more prospects.
Come on SA, why can’t we be the one trading Flores, Niese and others to get Shields, Davis, etc.?
Bla Bla Bla, maybe the Mets should go spend some money like they did from 2006 till when Alderson took over and lose. Matter fact his first year the payroll was 140 to 150 mill off the top of my head. It is just false hope and half the fans will still not go to the games in August if they out of it. Baseball is different now, prospects and building a strong farm are essential to winning. Top prospects are like cigarettes in jail. You need them to get the pieces you need not just build your team with.You build a core around the ones he wants and use the others to get what you need in a trade and sign a free agent or two. It keeps payroll flexible from year to year and leaves the team with more options. Next year the Mets will have money to spend and prospects closer to the majors and on the major league roster, and they can use them as chips and for themselves. They can go spend 30 to 40 mill ” which I wouldn’t suggest” and still be around the same payroll they are now. Come On Man
Hi Joe D.
When it comes to what you just said, few would be able to distinguish who was writing – Joe D. or Joey D. – other than the give away of one coming across as a truly professinal blogger and a much, much better writing skills.
Right on target.
More important, have you had your surgery yet and if so, how ya doing?
I would bet that if we took a poll and asked all the folks who are prospect drunk how old they are, you would find all are under 30, Were not old enough to remember how players used to be valued before the internet and Sabermetrics came along, and have this idea that anyone over 30 is not worth having Due to some other warped statistical analysis that shows players decline after thier 34th Birthday.
What they don’t seem to understand about that research is the reason the age is what it is has more to do with the bust rate of YOUNG kids bringing down the average than anything real or imagined about post 30 player performance.
As for BA’s list I have railed against those who use it as some indicator of how good your MiL system is time and again…
Getting a 30 on a test is a fail in any subject you can think of…
Sure the payoff when it hits COULD be pretty high but it’s pretty much about as good a bet as snake eyes is on a crap table.
Kids are good to have but they don’t all have to be the next Superstar to get what you need out of them.
I would much prefer a conga line of average or decent kids every year who can come up and replace non-performers on the MLB squad than get the three good players once in a decade and having the rest of the kids useless to me.
This is why I have said that Dickey should be extended and only if the pakage includes two sure thing kids who have already proved they will make the MLB and fill a hole we currently have will I entertain making the trade.
I find it odd that people here suggest WHAT IF Dickey declines….
Well WHAT IF those kids never suceed?
History says thats more an even money bet than Dickey just losing it and forgetting how to throw a Knuckleball anytime soon.
As I started off, this Prospect Drunkedness is all about Moneyball and the arrogance of Youth thinking they can do thing better and know and perform better than people with experience.
And it just isn’t true, has never been true and will never BE true!
SOmething these folks will learn when they themselves become the OLD guy and and see how that youth bias cast them aside as useless and not worth having because newer kids were born to carry on thier dumb inexperienced and short sighted opinion!
“I would bet that if we took a poll and asked all the folks who are prospect drunk how old they are, you would find all are under 30, Were not old enough to remember how players used to be valued before the internet and Sabermetrics came along, and have this idea that anyone over 30 is not worth having Due to some other warped statistical analysis that shows players decline after thier 34th Birthday.”
Go back on your ritalin. You made sense for like a day.
“Getting a 30 on a test is a fail in any subject you can think of…”
Really? You can’t think of anywhere that a 30% success rate is something to laud?
Go back to your nipple…Infants never make sense!
Atta boy. It was only time, wasn’t it.
What great wisdom from the Pinhead we all know as Donal!
You were dropped on your head when you were born (about two weeks ago) right?
I find it funny you have nothing to add here except the snarky ramblings of a drunken irishman!
Your a disgrace to the rest of us Micks!
That’s it, keep proving me right.
Yep I’m proving something….another forward to JoeD on the way!
I said something about baseball here…have you?
And I will play your little snark game until JoeD comes in and deletes the entire bit you started and then what will you have accomplished?
Showing JoeD something thats for sure!
Who is the ass who deserves a banning even more than Bayonne does!
Cause your actually worse at least he sprinkiles in some baseball when he berates and attacks fans something your brain is too feeble to master apprently!
Better get a big donation saved up to contribute to the Site because truth is we all know thats the only reason why you haven’t been banned here yet!
Excuse me? That is insulting to myself and Joe.
If I do donate money to the site (not that it would be anyone’s business but myself and Joe), it is because I like it here and want to see it continue as it is. And I sincerely doubt Joe would sell off opportunities to act like a sociopath on his site.
And no, responding to your insults, personal attacks and lies with some facts covered in humor is not as bad as threatening a person or their family. It is not as bad as ganging up and making personal attacks on someone just because they enjoy the same thing as you in a different way.
Yep you go right on trying to twist your startg of trouble into something I did wrong!
Every time your allowed to post here Joe is losing contributions that might be made if people thought this was a nice place to be if only they didn’t have to deal with A$$H0LE$ like you!
Whatever. You said something stupid, got called on your nonsense, and then tried to derail the conversation with something even worse.
Yep and you said something insulting which in most cases gets you banned around here….
The Masses are waiting to see your teflon suit removed and sent to your room as others have and you learn your lesson that rules apply to ALL not just the ones who don’t contribute!
You started this and I reported it!
Joe has failed to act on it so I am working on the premise he WANTS these types of conversations on the site….
And if he doesn’t he will delete all the posts that are not baseball related or contain insults which will leave my original post up and send your where they belong…IN THE GARBAGE!
Cause no one is worse at garbage posting than the high and mighty DANAL!
The irony of the Core calling out a reasonable and level headed poster for being that particular insulting name (or doing what you are accusing him of) is astounding.
You must be confusing me with Alex….
Truth is DANAL starts more argumets than Alex and Bayonne combined!
I dare you to post one nugget of baseball wisdon DANAL has ever posted….
No link will be proof you can’t find one!
Are you saying players do not decline past their 34th birthday?
Maybe in the steroid era they didnt but look pre and post that time frame and you will see they do. That doesnt require statistical analysis just observation.
No moreso than players who get past thier 25th Birthday do….
More KIDS decline and bust than Post 35 Players do because the players who remain in the league that long are all pretty good players while most kids are just entering into the league at 25!
This notion that all old players are not as good as kids is just rediculous!
Cause the ones who are still in the league when they are old are STILL better than most 25 year olds in the game!
Something lost on you kids and stat geeks!
Thank you for calling me a kid.
BUT, that does not omit you from being factually incorrect. Take 100 major league starters at the age of 25 or 26 and compare that with 100 major league starters are 34 and tell me which are still in the league in 5 years.
Post steroid, most players go to crap at the age of 35 or 36.
Just choosing some Mets off the top of my head:
Hernandez severe drop off after 33 out of baseball at 36
Alfonso last good year 31 out of baseball at 32
Strawberry last good year 29
Ventura decline started at 31 productive through 34….35/36 terrible and out of baseball
Seaver Terrific years at 39 and 40
Koosman Decline started at 37
Torre Decline at 33 last year 36
McReynolds last good year 31. out of baseball at 34
Mitchell terrific year at 32 nothing the next two years…out at 34
Dykstra great year at 30…so so years after that…out at 33
Wilson good year at 34 out of baseball at 35
Out of this list, arbitrarily chosen, most were nothing after the age of 34. Their drop off was immediate and the last couple years were usually limited roles.
Still in the league has no bearing on HOW you produce while your there!
Is a kid who hits .220 for 5 years better than a guy who hits .300 for 3?
NOPE!
Exactly. And most of those all time Mets were absolutely awful past 34. They were just hanging on in most instances. Their production was gone. Most of the list didnt have even one good year after 33.
Hernandez 34 .276 35 .233 36 .200
Straw 34 .262/11/36
35 .103/0/2
36 .247/24/57
37 66 AB
Torre 34 .247/6/35
35 .306/5/31
36 54 AB
And the rest didnt make it that far.
Still not seeing the wonderful production post 34.
Yep you take Thole I’ll take Piazza at 35!
I get more in one season than you do in 5!
Compare that to the 1981 Mets (another arbitrary choice)
Lets look at the 24-26 year olds that made it to 30:
Brooks Yes
Mazzili Yes
Wilson Yes
Valentine Basically no (had a 40 game stint with Tex at 30)
Ed Lynch Yes
Greg Harris Yes
Orosco Yes
Charlie Puleo Yes
Searage Yes
Reardon Yes
Not exactly a list of all stars or even very good players yet most of them managed to make it to 30 in the majors while the above 34 crowd fizzled out quickly.
Again maing the dumb comparison as if years you play has anything to do with what you contributed while you did!
Guys who make it to 35 in many cases are guys who eventually get selected to the Hall!
All your doing is saying I can keep younger guys longer…
So go ahead keep Thole for as long as you want…
I’ll take Piazza at 35 and in one season get more production than you will if Thole makes it to 30 in all his seasons combined!
You are the one making dumb assertions. I randomly chose the best mets off the top of my head. Nobody is saying that a thole compares to a future hall of famer.
The dumb argument is the idea of singing guys at 34 and stating more of them will remain in the league than guys at 25 or 26. It isnt true. Skills decline at 34 and that is a fact. You sign a bunch of 34 year old guys and they will be out of the league by 36 in most instances. Again take 100 starters at 25 versus 100 at 34 (if you can find that many) and see how many are productive.
And by the way, Piazza was a steroid era player which negates any legitimate argument since everyone is under suspicion of at least HGH.
Prove Piazza took roids….
Avoid your problem all you want but Piazza at 35 is better than Thole at 25-30 and you KNOW it!
Which blows your YOUNG IS BETTER claim right out of the water!
Now you try and make unsubstantiated accusation to get out of it!
hence DUMB ASSERTIONS!
Piazza is a Hall of Famer, he’s not the standard. Piazza at 35 is better than 99.9% of every catcher at every age.
Do you understand why taking a once in a generation player and trying to pass him off as a typical example is dishonest?
Thats right slappy!
Most guys who go into the Hall do so based on what they do past 35 not what they do up till then!
Thats exactly the point I made you two are feebly trying to argue against with your age discriminatory slant.
Guys who are still in the league at 35 are pretty damn good players already better than any average kid who comes up and is playing before the age of 30.
But you guys want to get rid of them out of fear and dumb RULE you think exists that ALL PLAYERS decline at 35….
Well I showed you one that didn’t haven’t I?
Some of you folks are mixing things up here:
# 1 Individual prospects are highly overrated in today´s game. It´s been going on and been a lasting trend for quite a while. Pick any Baseball America Top 50 list in Baseball between 2000 and 2009 (i.e. a time when most if not all prospects on those lists should have reached the majors by now). And you´ll see that about 10 out of 50 prospects on these lists become true stars, i.e. players to build a team around. Another 20 out of these 50 become solid major leaguers, say “Mike Pelfreys”. Not stars but longtime performers at league average levels. And the remaining 20 flame out in some sort of way and struggle to even reach the majors or establish themselves there in any sort of way. So, basically, the “bust” potential is roughly 40 % while the true “star potential” is about 20 % with the other 40 % becoming valuable solid average performers.
# 2 The importance of having a DEEP system is a lot bigger today than it used to be 10 to 15 years ago. With escalating salaries, platoon players getting 2 year, 15 million $ type contracts and average regulars getting 3-years, 39 million, plus most stars getting signed to longterm deals before they hit arbitration and weakening free agent classes, building your team through free agency is becoming less & less of an option. Unless you go LA Dodgers crazy with a 220 million $ payroll and won´t hesitat to sign middling setup relievers like Brandon League to 3-year, 22 million $ type contracts. You either need to develop players for your own team. Or you need to develop them to be able to trade for other teams´ players still under contract and in their prime.
# 3 The Mets currently have a very deep system at the A-Ball level and below. Their pitching depth at those levels is deeper than that of pretty much any other organization in Baseball. To a point where it´ll be tough finding enough rotation spots for everyone.
Fulmer – Tapia – Montero – DeGrom – Verrett – Pill – Panteleodis – Mateo – Robles – Ynoa – Matz – Koch are a dozen arm of good to very good promise that should open 2012 in a full season A-Ball rotation for example. None of them is a top 50 overall caliber prospect (yet). However, several have the potential to become above average major league pitchers going forward or reaching a high prospect status on their way.
The Mets also have a 1st wave of young pitching already closing in on the majors:
Harvey – Wheeler – Mejia – Familia – Edgin – McHugh – Gorski and a few more 2nd tier arms such as Carson and Elvin Ramirez. All of them will open 2013 either at Las Vegas or on the Mets. And basically the quality of this first wave will go a long way in determining how good the Mets will be in 2014 and 2015 until some of the pitchers from the “2nd wave” figure to join.
Most of the positional prospects remain in the lower minors as well. Nimmo, Cecchini, Evans, Aderlin Rodriguez, G.Gomez, Plawecki, Lupo, Rosario, Reynolds and others will open 2013 in A-ball or even only short season leagues and remain at least 2-3 years away from their debut.
At the upper levels the Mets only have Flores as a legitimate position prospect with Puello, Den Dekker, Ceciliani, Vaughn & Lagares all showing some promise but a lot of question marks too. So, eventually, it figures the Mets will have to trade pitching for offense. Which is basically why the RA Dickey sweepstakes are going on. And why David Wright had to be re-signed – no impact free agents on the market and the odds of getting another Wright via trade being less than 20 % (i.e. the star level performers out of top 50 prospects).
# 4 The prospect depth in the Mets´ system, thanks to the plethora of pitching, is better than it has been in over 25 years. The positional talent level remains low though promising at the lower tiers. And before you start moaning about the current lack of “Top 50 overall hitting prospects” in the system, I´d rather have 5 hitting prospects in the # 51 to # 200 range than 2 hitting prospects in the top 50. Because for every David Wright & Jose Reyes, there are several Fernando Martinez, Lastings Milledge, Jay Payton or Alex Escobar type players. Depth is the key here. Not “prospect luster”.