Dec
17
2012
17
2012
Sickels: Mets Top 20 Prospects, D’Arnaud Goes To The Head Of The Class
An article by Craig Lerner
Travis d’Arnaud jumps to the top of the Mets prospect list..
John Sickels of Minor League Ball, has updated his Mets Top 20 Prospects for 2013, and assuming the trade goes through, look who jumps to the head of the class.
- Travis D’Arnaud, C, Grade A-: Should be acquired from Jays in the R.A. Dickey trade. He’s not perfect, but D’Arnaud is either the best catching prospect in baseball or the second-best behind Mike Zunino. Could use a bit more polish with his throwing and his plate discipline and immediate stardom is unlikely, but overall he’s the complete package. Don’t expect him to be Mike Piazza, but he should be a long-term solution.
- Zack Wheeler, RHP, Grade A-: Aside from some control wobbles in Triple-A, he had a terrific year. Projects as a number two starter. Can he duplicate what Matt Harvey did? It’s possible.
- Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Grade A-: Acquired in Dickey trade. He’s ahead of where Wheeler was at age 20. Strong sinking fastball, good changeup, breaking stuff coming around, solid command, good body, good makeup, strong sabermetric profile. Just needs to stay healthy. I like him more than many people do, but I really like him.
- Wilmer Flores, 3B-2B, Grade B+: I am impressed with the progress he made last year developing his power, and he’s still just 21. There are still significant questions about his defense and how his bat will fit into a lineup, but progress is progress.
- Michael Fulmer, RHP, Grade B: Strong performance in Low-A, impressive fastball/slider combination. Development of changeup, command, and durability concerns over cross-body mechanics lead to some questions about future role, but he could be a mid-rotation guy eventually. Another guy I’m laying a bet on. Maybe a bad idea when it comes to pitchers, but I’m operating on very little sleep tonight.
- Jeurys Familia, RHP, Grade B-: Another hard-thrower with command issues and question about his role. I’ve been in the starter camp but am now leaning towards the bullpen. Even slight command improvement could make him significant contributor in 2013.
- Luis Mateo, RHP, Grade B-: Love the arm and he blew away the NY-P, however, he is in the age cohort of a college senior at age 22 so take the raw stats (2.45 ERA, 85/9 K/BB in 73 innings) with a grain of salt. That said, he throws quite hard and if his changeup comes around he is another mid-rotation arm for the future. If he repeats this at higher levels, he’ll zoom up the lists quickly in ’13 and this grade could look too low.
- Brandon Nimmo, OF, Grade B-: Very patient, showed some pop in the New York-Penn League, but his athleticism and speed weren’t as good as advertised. Will need more power if he has to move to an outfield corner.
- Gavin Cecchini, SS, Grade B-: Baseball rat type, 2012 first rounder, good polish on defense, but hitting in rookie ball wasn’t as good as I was led to expect when he was in high school. Young enough to get a lot better, of course.
- Rafael Montero, RHP, Grade B-: Another product of the Mets pitching pipeline in Latin America, thrived in Low-A and High-A. Good command of low-90s fastball, and has a solid slider and improving changeup, throws strikes. Another potential mid-rotation starter.
- Domingo Tapia, RHP, Grade B-: Here’s another one, gets up to 98 MPH, erratic but promising in Low-A, needs a better breaking ball to remain a starter, but another high-ceiling guy.
- Cory Mazzoni, RHP, Grade C+: Inconsistent after promotion to Double-A and long-term role is uncertain, but could be another mid/back-rotation or bullpen candidate within the next two years. Low-to-mid-90s, good slider, but splitter wasn’t completely effective.
- Jake DeGrom, RHP, Grade C+: Older prospect at age 24 due to lost Tommy John season, but has a nasty sinker, an athletic body, throws strikes, and was sharp statistically with a 2.43 ERA and 96/20 K/BB in 111 innings in A-ball. Significant sleeper prospect.
- Kevin Plawecki, C, Grade C+: Purdue catcher is a skilled contact hitter with a very solid glove. Didn’t post eye-popping numbers in the NY-P, but I think he has growth potential. Presence of D’Arnaud means Plawecki won’t have to be rushed.
- Matt Den Dekker, OF, Grade C+: Offers left-handed power, can steal a base, and a fine glove in the outfield, but excessive strikeout inclination will likely preclude a good batting average and OBP. Should make a solid fourth outfielder.
You can check out the rest of the list here as well as all the near misses and honorable mentions.
It looks like Brandon Nimmo has dropped down from the top of most of these lists from 2-3 to anywhere between 8-10 by the looks of it. On the plus side Michael Fulmer is rising fast and we’ll get a better look at him as St. Lucie where he is expected to begin the season. Luis Mateo is also on the rise while Jeurys Familia still hangs onto his place in the 5-6 area. I think Familia will figure into the Mets bullpen plans and could head north with the team when camp breaks.
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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Kind of surprised Sickles didn’t at least wait until the trade is official.
That’s a ton of pitching in the top 15.
Interesting that he put D’Arnaud ahead of Wheeler when, from what I read, everyone is ranking Wheeler top 10 (between 5-7) with D’Arnaud just outside it (11-13).
Mateo is finally getting some respect which is great to see. I love what I’ve seen from him and I’m very excited at how good he could be. I always felt he had better stuff than Tapia and Montero who always seemed to be ranked ahead of him, but now all is as it should be IMO. No matter what, we got a great surplus of arms on deck.
One more thing, because Flores numbers were put up mostly in the pitching friendly FSL and then he actually got better in Bingo, I still would have kept him as the Mets top hitting prospect. Bot I’m sure once Flores gets his chance in cozy Las Vegas the entire country will be foaming at the mouth to get their hands on him. I still say he’ll be in left field and now Baseball America is finally agreeing with me on that.
I am sorry, Cechinni ahead of montero and tapia??????? Based on what??? If nimmo and cecchini are our top 2 hitting prospects after Flores, we are in serious trouble down the road…
The plus side of that it, a lot of pitching and power arm.. If these kids don’t turn out to be good as starters, the bullpen can always be an option….
What are you talking about Alex? Cecchini had a great year like Brandon Nimmo. They both batted .240 and Cecchini had a very impressive .300 OBP and .320 slugging.
Plus lower level stats dont count. Hasn’t anyone ever told you that? Only when they fit the narrative.
By the way, don’t pay attention to Courtney Hawkins and Jose Fernandez. The players I wanted instead of those two. Just ignore their stats and their awards for minor league player of the years at their levels.
Ahhhhhhhhh….. Maniac, thanks for commenting, Yes yes… Since their numbers STUNK it’s ok to use ceiling and upside to shove both of them down our throats. Funny, when Flores struggle in a friendly pitching park he was a bust and noone mention that it was because of the stadium, but when nimmo struggle, it was everything else BUT nimmo, Agenda much?
Actually, most people who follow the farm and aren’t trying to sign this year’s big name all mentioned that Flores was playing against guys 3 years older than him.
Many of the same people you two attack personally said “he’s only 19″. So, ya, never let facts get in the way of a rant, right?
Not that it matters, but I wanna know:
When was the last time the Mets had 3 Grade A prospects in their system?
probably a long time. maybe when Wright and Reyes were close, though not even sure Reyes was rated an A, or if they would have had a 3rd guy at the time.
Generation K..
A much better list than Baseball America’s, which had Cecchini and Nimmo much higher…..
Baseball America’s individual team lists are no longer a consensus list of five editors including Callis like it used to be. Every team is covered by one guy and the guy who does Mets is a major Fangraphs and Amazin Avenue geek. At least when Adam Rubin made the list for BA he was objective and mostly spot on. Rubin is still the best for Mets minor league coverage and the most insightful.
Eventually they will have to move some of the pitchers for offense, that is the whole point of building a strong farm,keep who you want and trade the other with another wave right behind them. That is how you prevent long term losing, which is why the Dickey trade is so good. Mets are just gonna turn real good real quick and we will not even expect it.
agreed. too many people overlook that fact that having a strong farm and extra prospects at a positin is not about fielding an entirely home grown team, it is having depth to cover for injuries, and having plenty of the currency that you need to get other players (prospects being the currency).
If you have 1 wheeler type, not likely to trade him for a bat. But if you back up 5 of them, then yes, you can spare a couple to get what you need.
hopefully they can follow the Braves model, and from that list of live arms, keep the rotation strong and have extra to build a top notch BP for of low cost power arms.
If you are going by Cecchini’s results in Kingsport, then Miller Diaz and John Michael Gant deserve mentioning on the “others” list at the least. Diaz was the Sterling winner there and Gant had a good season and was untouchable for a month and a half. I’m not saying they are top 15 prospects but they had every bit as good a year as Cecchini.
I love this list. d’Arnaud ahead of Wheeler is a preference bit, but you have to respect it because of positional value. Wheeler is a tremendous prospect, but a RHP with ace potential doesn’t top an all around catcher. I’d go Flores at 3 because of his accomplishments at a higher level than Syndergaard. Then again, Noah is a year behind Wilmer on the age scale so that evens it out. Again, another preference bit.
All the pitching to come means that it is growing into a long-term organizational strength capable of filling out our rotation or bullpen, or trading for additional pieces.
Am I missing something? What about Mejia?
Is he no longer a prospect? Because he sure isn’t a perennial major leaguer.
Has too much MLB service time lost eligibility