19
2012
Nothing Is Decided In December
An article by 
Yesterday evening, GM Sandy Alderson insisted that his team can be competitive in 2013. I heard the calls, I’ve read the tweets, and I’ve seen the comments. It seems almost unanimously fans seem to think the opposite.
Some may say I’m a dreamer or some may say I’m an apologist for a general manager. I say nay. I am a Mets fan, and I’ve learned over the last few years that nothing is decided in the off-season.
Whether it’s the 07 and 08 Mets who were ready to break out and win a title, the 2010 Phillies who just got Halladay and were a lock to win it all, the 2011 Phillies who added Cliff Lee and now had the best rotation ever or the 2012 Marlins who added hundreds of millions in payroll because they were ready to be a contender.
I watched the 2012 Oakland Athletics trade away Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, and Andrew Bailey last winter only to have everybody write them off as a team that was almost trying to lose games.
Don’t remember what the “experts” said right before spring training?
Athlon Sports said, “The A’s have managed to win at least 74 games in the five seasons since their last playoff berth, and they’d probably be ecstatic to win that many this year. More likely they’ll be fighting to crack 70 victories.”
AOL Sporting News said, “Oakland could lose 100 games in its latest rebuilding season.”
Bill Madden of the NY Daily News predicted the A’s to lose 98 games.
Greg Johns of mlb.com said, “Coming off a 74-88 season, Beane appears to be punting the immediate future in an effort to line up his forces for if and when the A’s can get their stadium issues resolved in Oakland or San Jose.”
Albert Chen of SI.com said, “They’re not going to be playing meaningful games in July — but they’re better positioned for the future.”
Buster Olney of espn.com said “Early in the season, Oakland ownership gets word that the move to San Jose is a done deal, and the Athletics funnel all their efforts into building the team for 2015-16” after he predicted them to finish last.
And one of the greatest prognosticators of them all (no, not Punxsutawney Phil) Las Vegas posted the Oakland A’s over/under win total at 72 and their odds to win the AL West were +3,500. For those non-gamblers out there, that means if you went to Las Vegas and put $10 on the A’s to win the division you just won yourself $35,000.
After their June 30th win in Los Angeles, the Mets were 43-36, just 4.5 games out of the division and a half game back in the wildcard hunt.
Now I’m in no way going to sit here and tell you the Mets will make the playoffs. I am going to tell you that it’s not unreasonable to think they have a chance.
A lot of the Mets most recent critics are those who believe that baseball is about more than numbers on a piece of paper. I agree with them, but I find it inconsistent to assume the Mets are “punting,” based on pieces of paper.
The Mets still have work to do this off-season, nobody should deny that. They absolutely need a RF who can hit for power, and they undoubtedly need to identify arms for the bullpen whether through the farm or by any means necessary.
Much of the Oakland A’s and even Baltimore Orioles success was based on the unknown. The Orioles bullpen went from awful to incredible without changing a lot of personnel. The A’s went from trading Cahill and Gio to having a bunch of rookies who performed brilliantly in 2012.
When R.A. Dickey left, one of the key critiques was “how do you replace 20 wins?”
That’s a fair point, but can somebody tell me it’s impossible for Gee, Niese and Harvey to each win 15 games? If they can, then you just made up Dickey’s 20 games with Johan, another pitcher and possibly Wheeler to spare.
Let’s not forget about our two cornerstone infielders, Wright & Davis. Can any Mets fan tell me it’s impossible for Ike Davis to have an OPS higher than .659 after the first 81 games? What about Wright? Is it possible that he could have a better 2nd half if the games become more meaningful?
It’s very logical to think that by May or June, Travis d’Arnaud and Zack Wheeler will join this team if healthy. What impact can they have infusing more youth into the club?
I think with today’s availability to information has made fans of all sports pessimistic by default. It used to be “get em next year,” and now it’s “we’re punting.”
The Mets have talent. If d’Arnaud comes up and can be as good as the Philadelphia Phillies director of scouting says then the Mets could have one of the best overall infields in the National League.
“I hated to lose him,” said Marti Wolever, Philadelphia’s scouting director. “He can be the centerpiece of an organization for a long time.”
“He’s a very confident kid,” Wolever said. “People can take that the wrong way at times. But he’s confident in his abilities. Some people might misconstrue that as arrogance.”
“I’m happy for him,” Wolever said. “But I hope we figure out a way to get him out.”
If Matt Harvey steps up like Parker and Milone did, this rotation looks a lot different than it does on paper. If Ike Davis comes out of the gate strong, this lineup looks a lot different.
Sure, the word “if” is a scary word when talking about a team’s chances. But, that word still gives me hope. It still makes me DVR Opening Day avoiding all communication with the outside world until I get home to watch, it still gives me a feeling that maybe we can surprise people this year?
I believe the future of this team is 1-2 full years away, but I also believe there’s a possibility that we can witness something special in 2013. I’m not giving up on 2013. I’m not giving up on the Mets.
I don’t believe the 40+ men in uniform will report to spring training and say “we’re punting.” I think they will go there looking to win baseball games, and no piece of paper, expert, or fan is going to convince them of doing anything else.
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 25 | 18 | .581 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 21 | .523 | 2.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 23 | .477 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 17 | 24 | .415 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 12 | 32 | .273 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/19/2013
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i totally agree , its not that dark people make it and its baseball folks, likely anything can happen to anyone, that includes our team , GO METS
especially when your “ifs” are more along the lines of guys playing up to their normal output or reasonable expectations. That is certainly not crazy (thinking Ike will have a solid year or Wright will be an all-star).
now, if you are counting on Kirk to be Mickey Mantle, then you are nuts!
Good piece. and you raise an important point where a lot of people seem to contradict themselves.
last year in Early July, when the mets were close, the feeling was they just needed a few reinforcements to stay in the race. And they actually got a huge one (Harvey). But, they faded.
so, how is the team that much different than they were 7/3 last eyar, to the extent of being a 100 loss guarantee? They lost Dickey, but will get some other reinforcements (and hell, bay was the ultimate addition by subtraction).
At least wait until opening day to see the actual lineup to pass judgement and “write off” the season. But even then, a lot of people will be way off.
Jessep,
Some people ridicule you, but it’s a distinct minority. I hated the years where one overpriced FA was taken in after another. My heart sunk when they picked up Bay for 4 years and a boatload of cash as I knew he was not going to live up to what he did in Boston (although, I did not predict his total collapse).
Finally, the strategy of the early 80′s is re-emerging. I like this piece and I like how you believe in this team and the direction on which they finally decided to travel. The trolls will keep bashing your bridge but hold firmly, keep on making this site worth reading …. and GO METS!
With the additional WC, anything is possible. On paper right now, we certainly don’t look like we’ll be much better than last season though.
We just lost our ace. We have to make up those 20 games somewhere, just to finish the same as last season. I doubt we’ll have another 20 game winner this season so we have to look elsewhere. Defense needs to be better than last season to start with. Our IF shouldn’t be a problem but right now our OF defense doesn’t look that inspiring.
Catching defense is a question mark as well right now.
Not only did we lose a 20 game winner in RAD, we lost a very good fielding pitcher who has one of the best pick off moves in the game for a RH.
If we can shore up the defense and add a little more offense, anything is possible.
well, on paper the 1993 club was not supposed to be 59-103.
and you really aren’t making up 20 wins. You are making up what Dickey realistically would have won this coming year. So, what is that, 17?
assume everything else stays the same in the rotation, other than pitcher A replacing Dickey. Assume that guy can win 11 (not crazy). that leaves 6 missing.
those fall out in the normal ebb and flow of a season. Neise might have a big win year and win 4 more than last year. The pen could win 2 more. That is your 6 right there.
Johan could realistically cover the six all by himself, and then some. Healthy ankle, one more year removed from the surgery, the motivation of a contract year. He won six games last year. Anyone think that he isn’t gonna win at least 12 games? I think that’s his floor.
And if he is even close to 10 wins the deadline guess who the next GOOD PLAYER traded for kids will be?
Another fine piece that I wholeheartedly agree with. I’ve never been a fan of building a team by bringing in aging superstars with bloated contracts with a win now mentality. It almost never works and the hangover, years with diminished production and ugly contracts that tie the hands of management, are ugly.
I don’t expect the Mets to challenge for the crown this year but neither do I expect them to be awful. And I’m really excited by the amount of young talent this team is assembling that will have years to play together, be productive and build a consistent winner.
-The A’s signed a highly Touted Cuban defector CF “Yoenis Cespedes”
-They traded an often injured Closer “Andrew Bailey & Ryan Sweeney” for a young promising OF prospect “Josh Reddick”(that the Mets were said to be interested in trading Beltran to acquire),prospect 1B “Miles Head” who is tearing up the minors.
- Also traded scraps pitchers Josh Outman & Guillermo Moscoso for a proven OF Seth Smith.
- Traded Gio Gonzalez for Brad Peacock, Tom Milone, Derek Norris and A. J. Cole. THREE MAJOR LEAGUE READY PROSPECTS & 1 prospect thats 2-3 yrs off…
-Traded Cahill &Breslow for Ryan Cook, Jarrod Parker, and Collin Cowgill…..Parker ranked as the 17th best prospect in the MLB by MLB.com….Cook a very good young reliever
Billy Beane made countless moves…..and improved areas of weakness by using his strength which was pitching….His main weakness was he had NO OUTFIELDERS now a year later his Outfield is a strength….He did a great job of not sacrificing pitching too much because he made sure he got back in return multiple pitchers with high upside and were major league ready are close….
Alderson IMO did a good job trading Dickey and getting back the return he did….They werent going to spend money to add talent around Dickey so he would be wasting away pitching for them.
WHAT ELSE WILL HE DO THOUGH?????
And NO….Dont tell me to be patient I dont want to hear it….I was told be patient the last 2 offseasons of Alderson and at the end he didnt do anything but add fringe players and HOPED one or two would pan out….No more waiting for Alderson he is under the gun
The A’s signed Cespedes in February of 2012 which would seem to bolster the argument that nothing is won or lost in December of the previous year. Reddick was acquired from the Red Sox after he had a cup of coffee in Boston. And it was in late December, after Christmas. We aren’t there yet. He was traded for a former ROY, the very thing you seem to be against with the Mets trading Dickey. Except Bailey is 10 years younger than Dickey and is now out until after the all-star break after thumb surgery. Opps.
And please, the murders row of Seth Smith, Jonny Gomes and Coco Crisp? They don’t none of them has the power production Duda.
And the starting pitching staff, I wouldn’t have trade that for ours on a bet.
If you want to write the season off as a total waste feel free. Still plenty of time to see what else happens before the season even starts.
Jessep–I wish I could share your enthusiasm. I really do.
Your article is great reading and you have some valid points. Definitely worth thinking about.
I just cant share your enthusiasm.
Just seems like all the ‘IFS” have to go in our favor and all the if’s have to go against Wash, ATL and Philly.
The only comment you made that I really disagree with is when you mentioned:
That’s a fair point, but can somebody tell me it’s impossible for Gee, Niese and Harvey to each win 15 games?
I’m not sure but when was the last time the Mets had 3 15 game winners on a staff?
Believe me, I hope youre right and I’m wrong.
Just that after 40 years, ‘Ya Gotta Believe’ has become nothing more than a catch phrase for me.
I applaud your optimism
rob – The last time the Mets had 3 15 game winners on a staff was 1988
88 Cone 20, Doc 18, Darling 17
Since then they have been close 4 times
07 was close, Ollie P and Maine had 15. Glavine 13.
91 Cone 14, Viola 13, Doc 13
90 Viola 20, Doc 19, Cone 14
89 Cone, Sid, Darling 14. Ojeda 13
Me and Rob were brothers in another life. I dont think we’ve ever disagreed on anything baseball in all the years we’ve known each other.
Wonder why my comment is being moderated???? There is no strong language in there at all???
Could it be the name Brad PeaC.O.C.K anyone?
Facts are we havent addressed any of our “weaknesses”
We have essentially the same team minus Dickey our Cy Young winner….
Thole/Nickeas swapped for Buck
The Outfield our biggest weakness is a bigger weakness with the potential lose of Hairston….whom had a career year I dont expect a repeat
Other Big Weakness the past 2 years BULLPEN still havent fixed that Pig Pen.
Catcher I say is upgraded with Buck but he has to hit better than he did last year…D’naurd is a minor leaguer he will not start the season with the Mets.
So when will Alderson improve this ballclub….Billy Beane addressed his teams weaknesses and turned them into strengths he didnt wait…He had a plan and he executed and he didnt mortgage his teams future. He actually strengthen his farm and major league club at the same time…He did what Sandy said he would do when he was hired…..
Please dont compare the A’s and Beane to the Mets and Alderson….Beane is/was proactive…..Alderson is reactive….He waits and waits and waits…….
“Facts are we havent addressed any of our “weaknesses””
And mae a new one becae now with the money left over we haveto find a Starting Pitcher on top of all that OF we still haven’t signed and all those decent FAs we have ignored trying to get rid of a Cy Young Pitcher.
Leroy: I think the Mets are confident some of their own arms can be good in the pen. The truth is, we won’t know until we see it.
Burke, Carson, Edgin, Familia, Gorski, Hampson, Hefner, McHugh, Mejia (after Wheeler) plus Parnell and Francisco
They may sign an arm or two but I wouldn’t expect a big reliever signing
“He had a plan and he executed and he didnt mortgage his teams future. He actually strengthen his farm and major league club at the same time”
You say that NOW but what did you think in March when the A’s lost 28 pitching wins and 24 saves by trading Cahill, Gio and Bailey and replaced them with kids and also lost 26 HR and 98 RBI from Willingham?
They rebuilt their offense with guys like Josh Reddick who hit 7 HR in 87 games the year before and Brandon Moss who hadn’t played an mlb season since 2009 along with Cespedes who in reality didn’t replace the power #s of Willingham
They put a worse offense on paper on the field, a largely inexperienced starting staff and bullpen. Please, PLEASE do not act like everybody knew they’d be good.
What did I think when the A’s lost those pitching wins….
That in the end it would bite them in the butt and thats what happened as they fell short and probably would not have if they had that Pitcher in the Playoffs.
You don’t think a offense that put up a combined .194/.269/.284 and 2.2 runs per game had more to do with their losing to Detroit?
They added 2 HIGH UPSIDE Outfielders in Cespedes and Reddick……Youre right they were unproven……BUT he had backup
He acquired proven players in Seth Smith(via trade) and signed Jonny Gomes, Coco Crisp(re-signed) “THREE PROVEN PRO OUTFIELDERS”….He left “NOTHING” to chance
His pitching rotation included;
Brett Anderson
Brandon McCarthy
Bartolo Colon
Dallas Braden
Tyson Ross
Along with young prospects Milone,Peac.ock, Parker and the other high upside pitching prospects
They traded away Gio and Cahill 2 pitchers they couldnt afford….they wouldnt have been able to re-sign…So they traded them away for a bunch of high end prospects whom were almost all major league ready….Beane created so much competition and he used high end pitching prospects….
In short Beane left nothing to CHANCE!!!!
If you read your post you read a lot of “IF’s”….When you listen to Alderson he says a lot of if and hope this guy does this then we’ll be fine…which translates to CHANCE
Beane had a PLAN and a BACKUP PLAN!!! in place…
FYI when I use the CAPS im not screaming just emphasizing those words lol…”" are not as effective
“You say that NOW but what did you think in March when the A’s lost 28 pitching wins and 24 saves by trading Cahill, Gio and Bailey and replaced them with kids and also lost 26 HR and 98 RBI from Willingham?”
I was surprised they traded Gio at the time….and honestly when I saw what they got back in return I was one of the few that was saying if Gio is worth that Sandy needs to see what he can get for Niese. Bailey I thought was a good move by Beane a steal…Bailey is always hurt and I know Beane is good when it comes to finding replacement closers…plus I loved the thought of the crazy Aussie Balfour closing out games not to mention him cursing himself out on the mound. Cahill I was never high on him because of his low K-Rate…and I loved the return Jarrod Parker The 17th best prospect in the MLB at the time.
I also loved what Beane did early this year….as soon as the season ended he went out bought low and traded for CF Chris Young….I thought the Mets would do something similar and strike early but no not really….
As far as Willingham I knew they couldnt afford to bring him back and wanted the Mets to attempt to sign Willingham but no cigar…..Then when Beane signed Cespedes I was pissed he did and the mets didnt because while Cespedes was an unknown he was high upside and his Price tag wasnt gonna break the Mets…And more importantly he fit the criteria of what we needed at the time a power hitting Right handed hitter….In all fairness I wanted the Mets to target the other Cuban outfielder 20 yr old Jorge Soler…but no…
I dont want to go into another season hoping Baxter,Duda,Valdespin,Cowgill can turn into something….If I must go into a season hoping an unproven player performs….. it has to be a highly touted prospect or youngster not dregs like what we have…..
I got slammed on this site for loving the trades and the direction they were going with their pitching. But I am sorry if you expect me to believe that you saw anything more than 81 wins coming then I am going to have to see proof of statements by you on the record, because truthfully I do not believe you.
BBLB, I have to vouch for Mike here. In addition to what he writes here on MMO, we email each other all the time about what other teams do, and as those deals and signings were going down with the A’s he was not only praising them, but even felt the A’s would be a player because of them in 2012.
So, you want me to go back and find posts of where I state I like the moves the A’s made?
Yeah….Im not gonna put that much work time & effort into proving myself to you. If you dont believe me so be it…doesnt change a thing if I present proof or not.
81 Wins? FYI I never predict or argue wins & losses. I liked the moves didnt think they would be a playoff team so quickly in 1 year.
And because you were supposedly killed by some here for saying you liked the moves does not mean you were the only one who liked them.
>>Catcher I say is upgraded with Buck but he has to hit better than he did last year…D’naurd is a minor leaguer he will not start the season with the Mets.
d’Arnaud needs to spend 20 days in the minors to give the mets an extra year of control over his contract. He was slated to be called up by Toronto at the end of last year before getting hurt. He will be up before the end of May.
I can’t find a single major league executive who doesn’t think he will be a solid major league player at the very least both defensively and offensively. To say he’s not an upgrade over Thole is absurd. And yes, catcher was a significant weakness for the Mets last year.
And by the same token you can’t find a single GM in Baseball that thinks d’Arnaud will do more for the chances of this team winning something THIS YEAR than Dickey would have done….
You can’t?
Dickey plays in 30 or so games a year. If d’Arnaud comes up on May 1 he can play in over 100.
Is he coming up May 1st?
NOPE!
And even if he does you still have that little issue of him being the reason more than 20 games were won…..
Unless he wins ROY it will be very difficult to say he was as valuable as a Cy Young Pitcher would be.
And by the same token you won’t find a single baseball executive who think the Mets were going to be a team that will contend for a championship this year with or without Dickey. This is one of the problems that the gloom and doomers around here just do not get.
We can have a very completive team this year but the odds of us winning a championship are extremely small, and they would have been with Dickey as well. If they makes you angry then so be it. I want to play for a championship as well but it was never in the cards for this year. Too many holes, not enough cash. Those are just the facts and expecting any GM to have been able to overcome that is not dealing with reality.
So instead of keeping Dickey we turned him into two young players with enormous upside. Does it guarantee a bright future? Of course not. And there is no guarantee that Dickey, who had a career year last year, will have a year even remotely like it ever again. And he’s now 38.
The core of our team going forward is very young and very talented. They are going to be here for years. And I’m a hell of a lot more optimistic on where we are headed than I was with Dickey, Thole and Nickeas.
Yet here we are commenting on an article that says we COULD contend because anything is possible….
Go Figure!
“d’Arnaud needs to spend 20 days in the minors to give the mets an extra year of control over his contract. He was slated to be called up by Toronto at the end of last year before getting hurt. He will be up before the end of May.”
WOW! You know more about what the Mets will do with there prospects than the Head of Mets Minor league operations huh???
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
“Paul DePodesta On catcher Travis d’Arnaud:
I think we need to get our hands on him first before we start predicting where he’s going to play or what his timetable will be. Considering he missed the back half of last year and the fact that he’s coming to a new organization, I think the most important part of spring training will just be about getting back into game shape and learning about 25 new pitchers.”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I never stated d’Arnaud was or wasnt an upgrade over Thole. I think regardless Buck will get the majority of playing time next season. Obviously d’Arnaud is the future of the position for the Mets but im dealing with definite’s for next year.
You make it seem as if I said d’Arnaud was inferior to Thole.
Leroy: You probably do not realize this but the Mets can not publicly say they will hold d’Arnaud back in order to keep him for an extra year based on service time.
REALLY!!!!!!! Wow…thanks for the insight Jessep…. similar to how they cant say…..”Hey Mets fans we are gonna suck again in 2013 but we still want you to come to the games and spend money”
None of us know what will happen…..Isnt that the message you were trying to portray in this post
>>>”nothing is decided in december”<<<
Well there is a semantical way of claiming d’Arnaud will do less than Thole would for us….
Thole would have started the season on the MLB squad, that is NOT going to be the case with d’Arnaud….
LOL
“Some may say I’m a dreamer or some may say I’m an apologist for a general manager.”
Most say your just consistently WRONG on these things….
Like the “Good Day” post from last year….
The issue you seem to sidestep here is IF you TRULY believe anything can happen to make 2013 a good year then you should have been dead set AGAINST the trading of a Cy Young Pitcher who would have been a big part of the reason and help to MAKE THAT HAPPEN!
If you think anything can happen then why take the stance we were NOT GOING TO (Definitive) win anything before his contract expired?
And if you think you couldn’t win WITH a CY YOUNG Pitcher what in the hell on gods green earth makes you think it’s possible without him?
Seems that you HOPE in regards to win or not win depends on your desire to make the team younger via trade and really nothing to what you feel is possible AFTER that trade….
It’s called Schizophrenia and you should have it checked!
LMAO!!!!!!!!
This is very true….very valid points
Jessep,
I appreciate your enthusiasm, unfortunately I see a team that will struggle to reach 20 games UNDER .500. I’ve been a Mets fan all my life and I’m getting on in years. I’ve seen the team go through this painful process before. Right now there are far too many ifs and not a lot of sure things. Matter of fact there are no sure things.
We all know that the Mets don’t have an outfield and they have a pathetic bullpen. We just removed a 20 game winner – and you say we can make up those 20 wins with other pitchers? Sure and that will still leave us where we were this year – low 70′s win total. Murphy will probably be traded because he is not a true second baseman and that’s a shame. He is a pure line drive hitter with 40 doubles power. The jury is way out on Ike and his .226 BA (with .228 in September). We will start the year with a catcher who hit around .200 last year.
It breaks my heart to see the shell of the team. What angers me the most is what I believe is the lack of responsibility of ownership for its team in the number one baseball market in the world.
None of the fans bought into a pyramid scam yet we are the ones paying for it. Fred should have done the dignified thing and sold the team once the scandal broke. But he had enablers in Selig and now Alderson. Jeff is a dunce.
Yes, it will be fun to see some of the youngsters grow – but how much more fun would it be to see a couple of youngsters inserted in a competitive team?
Raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens
Bright copper kettles and warm woolen mittens
Brown paper packages tied up with strings
These are a few of my favorite things!
Sorry, the trade of a Cy Young was in fact a referendum on the 2013 season. Better to face reality and wait to see what we actually got in return for Dickey. We’ll know by Christmas of 2014 if this was a great trade or a terrible one.
Opinions on the deal, optimistic or pessimistic, should all be put on ice until then. But as for 2013 and wild cards? I may have been born, but I wasn’t born yesterday.
Amaing that you wrote that! We just watched the Sound Of Music last night with the 6 and 7 year old! Too funny!
Joe D -
Do you know what R.A.’s combined record for 2010 and 2011 was for the Mets? 19 and 22. Inspiring, no?
Bear in mind that 2010 was his career high in wins before 2012 with a grand total of 11 wins. He tailed of just a tad in 2011 to record an 8 – 13 record.
What evidence, not the same old ‘Don’t you know that every knuckleball pitcher in recorded history got better after the age of 40″ nonsense, actually evidence, do you have that Dickey’s 2013 record will be more like his 2012 record than his previous career high of 11 wins?
Clayton Kershaw won the National League Cy Young in 2011 with a record of 21 – 5. He was 14 – 9 in 2012.
Boomer, stop looking at W-L. Most intuitive baseball folks I know and speak with daily, throw that into the trash and look at better indicators and barometers for evaluation. Go to Fangraphs and have a blast, or even look at the basics.
2010 – 2.84 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
2011 – 3.28 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
2012 – 2.73 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
I’ve spoken to R.A. a few times, we interviewed him seven times since he became a Met including an exclusive for MMO only at the MLB Fan Cave in NYC. I don’t need an R.A. Dickey lesson. I also worked with the producers for Knuckleball and was one of the few who got an advanced screening, plus the screener sent to me six months before the release.
Dickey is special and you can throw all the rules away.
If trading him makes you feel good inside, that’s great. People should do whatever they can to feel good about things. But lets cut it out with the doomsday scenario for R.A. Dickey in the next 2-3 years.
Make you a deal. You stop talking about the Cy Young, which is a subjective award based on baseball writers, and I won’t talk about won lost records which are actual statistics. Deal?
The vast majority of baseball executives think the Mets made a smart move with this trade. They understand where the Mets are, what their needs are and the value they got.
Nobody like trading a popular player so stop pretending everyone who thinks the Mets made a smart baseball (as opposed to emotional) move hate Dickey.
And no, Dickey isn’t special. He’s a baseball player and subject to the same issues of age and injury as everyone else. The Mets made it clear to everyone that Dickey was available. Only a couple teams showed any real interest and only one came up with a package that made the Mets move.
We will all find out in time who won this trade. But those against it aren’t possessed of some special knowledge.
Boomer – you wrote:
“The vast majority of baseball executives think the Mets made a smart move with this trade. They understand where the Mets are , what their needs are and the value they got.”
Yup – and if I may repeat what you wrote – They understand where the Mets are…
The vast majority of baseball executives understand that Wilpon desperately needed cash and two years ago appointed Alderson slash the payroll and salary dump – basically gut the team. In doing so, Sandy has made having a 20 game winner irrelevant. So, in that way, yes it makes sense to the vast majority of baseball executives – all of which must be overjoyed that they are not working for the Mets.
As far is this trade is concerned the Mets I believe sent Dickey’s 2013 commitment of $5M to Toronto along with what Thole would get in arb and in turn they have taken Buck’s $6M payroll commitment for 2013 with no money coming back to the Mets at least none I have seen reported so that I would think cancel each other out.
As far as R.A. Dickey and his extension offer just going by what Dickey himself said he believed it started at either 2 years $14M or $16M. It then went up to 2 years $10M but that was never put on paper. Which would come out with the $5M due in 2013 to either a 3 year $19M, $21M deal or an (informal) 3 year $25M.
Some reports suggested Dickey was seeking a 2 year $26M extension which would come out with the $5M due in 2013 to a 3 year $31M deal.
Dickey signed with Toronto I believe a 3 year $29M contract with a team option for a 4th year at $12M that comes with a $1M buyout bringing the total to 3 years $30M guaranteed.
Looking at all this I don’t believe the Mets traded R.A. because they could not afford to either pay an extra $6M, $5M or $3M a year in 2014 and 2015 depending on what offer you want to choose.
That should read “went up to 2 years $20M”.
Jersey -the numbers sound correct.
I’m not saying that Dickey was traded because the Mets couldn’t afford him – I’m saying that because the team was already gutted and non-competitive for next year and the year after that – they didn’t need him. So if they were going to save 30 million for the next three years in the process why not trade Dickey and get a potential stud catcher in the process.
It’s just a shame that it’s come down to this.
Yes but they would not had traded R.A. had he either (A) accepted the offer on the table or (B) a team gave the Mets what they wanted. The suggestion that they did it to save $30M cause they were going nowhere does not fit in my opinion when you take this into account.
Had they settled for less than what they had always been saying it would take all along to trade R.A. I could see your point but they didn’t.
I do though think that they may have considered if they could trade R.A. and get what they wanted in return that they could always re invest the money that would of went instead to R.A. had they agreed on an extension toward another player.
Apologies again that should read “(B) a team did not give the Mets what they wanted. “
Tlagee! They weren’t competitive before he gutted the team and he really didn’t gut the team, he moved 4 pieces they could no longer afford because of their salaries and the fact that they weren’t drawing with those guys because they sucked. 4 pieces before Dickey that is. If they were winning 90 games every year and he broke it up then I could see the constant whining about what’s going on but he’s doing what is necessary to build a long term contender as opposed to the one hit wonders we’ve been watching for 25 years.
hey Fonz!
three of those four piece that you talk about, I assume, are Bletran – the best CF we ever had, K-Rod – who holds the ML record for most saves; and Reyes, who is the most exciting offensive player we ever had and at the time was wearing the batting crown. Not to mention a host of other players.
And, after all that they trade the reigning Cy Young winner. See a patern?
So that’s not gutting the team?
ok – we’ll have to disagree on that.
Your numbers are right, and that’s exactly how it went down. The only thing Mr. North Jersey is that “A” was never really an option. They made him an offer that they knew would be rebuffed and it was. The last offer was never really an official offer it was more leak than offer, but it sounded like they would make it an official offer had they not got blown away with trade offer.
I agree with you regarding Dickey not accepting (A) and even Dickey himself said it was more of just an offer to get things started. The thing is though had no team met the team demands in a trade that informal $20M offer may have become formal and the option exists that he may have accepted the offer.
Oh I missed the “but it sounded like they would make it an official offer had they not got blown away with trade offer.” part. So in essence we agree.
It’s a deal, but let me correct you on something. The Mets never shopped Dickey, never. I know that from three sources and I know that from the GM and front office themselves.
They were only listening to offers that teams approached them with and wouldn’t make a deal unless they felt they got an offer that blew them away.
The Toronto talks died in Nashville because Alderson held out for d’Arnaud. It wasn’t until they decided to include him that things got hot and they started talking and in fact negotiating.
So dont think the lack of teams involved was due to lack of interest, it wasn’t.
That said, every AL East team checked in, every California team checked in except the Padres, plus the Phillies, Tigers, and Nationals. Can Josh Hamilton say that?
Oh please. It was widely reported that the Mets were looking for Texas to pony up Jurickson Profar, a guy with 9 games of MLB experience and a whopping .176 batting average and Texas said he was off the table. Simalarly, the Angels made it clear that Trumbo was untouchable. He has less 300 at bats in the majors and they wouldn’t even entertain a trade for Dickey. These not so secret conversations were in the news for weeks. I’m not making this stuff up and they aren’t exactly secrets.
And your flat wrong about the deal dying in Nashville because d’Arnaud wasn’t on the table. He was on the table for over a week. The deal didn’t get done until Synergaard was included in the deal.
>> Travis d’Arnaud had been part of trade proposal for 10 days. Alderson did not accept until Noah Syndergaard was included. Anthopoulos said he understood, because when he was shopping Roy Halladay years ago, he wanted multiple blue-chip prospects back, not solely relying on one primary prospect.
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/59514/conference-call-recaps-on-dickey-trade
That doesn’t disprove what I said. I said he was NOT shopped. Teams came to the Mets made offers and Mets countered. You are wrong about D’Arnaud, it was the deal breaker in Nashville because Mets wanted him with Gose, they balked. When things heated up it was because they agreed to part with D’Arnaud but not Gose and Mets were still willing to listen. Enter Syndergaard. Then it was on. Angels and Rangers tried to get in, they were told what it would take and they balked. I see you only get your news from what you read? That’s nice. I certainly don’t.
I’ve been following this thread and I thought this may help. While listening to Anthropoulos break down the timeline here are the highlights of what he said with my added attempt to retrace the dates.
Anthopoulos said he 1st had a chance to speak to Alderson at the GM meetings (Nov 7 -9) during a 20 minute shuttle ride back to hotel about Dickey. Alderson said his goal at that time was to still sign Dickey and didn’t want to engage in trade talks at all.
Anthopoulos said Alderson told him he needed until Thanksging (Nov 22) before this gets resolved.
Anthopoulos said about 3 or 4 days before the Winter meetings (Dec 7-11)he made one big push to try and get something done before the meetings but it didnt get done. Anthopoulos talked again a couple of times at the meetings but not real seriously.
Anthopoulos said when they got back from the meetings they engaged again pretty seriously.
Anthopoulos said the deal was completed Thursday (Dec 13).
Anthopoulos said d’Arnaud was key for Mets from beginning. Anthopoulos tried to do it without including d’Arnaud in the deal. Anthopoulos tried a lot of different versions of the deal but Mets were pretty adament that
d’Arnaud was the guy the Mets needed to have.
Anthopoulos said when they finally put d’Arnaud on the table he was on the table for about 10 days but that wasn’t moving the deal at all.
Anthopoulos finally asked Alderson what would get the deal done and Alderson said Syndergaard. Anthopoulos talked with his people internally said it was a steep price but he felt Dickey was a piece that could put the team over the top.
http://pmd.fan590.com/podcasts/pts/PTS-2012-12-17-6-pm.mp3
AA didn’t include the Gose aspect of the deal which was definitely there initially and was stalling things until they switched him out for Syndergaard, but yes, this is the lowdown.
You’re playing with semantics. Everybody on the planet knew Dickey was available. Whether the Mets made the call or just said they would entertain offers is irrelevant, they put Dickey on the market and as Alderson said repeatedly it would take a young difference maker to pry him loose.
And no, I’m not wrong. If anyone is wrong it is Alderson and Adam Rubin’s wrap up of the conference call with Alderson. I just showed you the quote, one that hasn’t been denied by Alderson or Anthopopoulos, that d’Arnaud was on the table for 10 days before Synergaard was finally added. That happened in the middle of last week, a week after the winter meeting wrapped up.
You stated quite clearly that Alderson held out for d’Arnaud in your post above. He already had d’Arnaud at the winter meetings. He held out for more and got it.
And no, Josh Hamilton can not say that every team checked in on him. The reason is because he was asking for an enormous contract. The Mets were asking for young prospects and only one team, Toronto, came through. That is the market value for Dickey and the overwhelming consensus from baseball executives is that the Mets get a great deal.
You’re free to disagree but you are in the minority.
I dont care if I’m in the minority, that’s not why I do this. I know the deal was for Gose and D’Arnaud and it stalled. I know it from a very high ranking team source. GM’s dont usually mention the players that ultimately don’t get dealt. It would create bad feelings for the player and team. We’ll leave it with you believe what you read, and I’ll go with what I was told. In the end it’s silly to argue about it. The deal is now a matter of history.
Ok, you believe what you want to believe and I’ll believe what I want.
But as Mr. North Jersey has posted, Anthopopoulos also says that Gose was never part of the deal and Alderson wanted d’Arnaud all along. Anthopoplous has absolutely nothing to gain by saying this. In fact, he would have looked a hell of a lot better saying he held the line at including Gose and looked like a hard bargainer. Instead, he looked like he rolled over.
In the end, you’re right, this deal is history and I’m happy with it. I wasn’t all that excited about yet another left handed hitting outfield prospect when we had a much bigger need a catcher, the single most important position player on the team.
“But as Mr. North Jersey has posted, Anthopopoulos also says that Gose was never part of the deal”
AA never said that that I recall during the interview. In fact he did say that he tried many versions of a deal so it is quite possible that Gose may have been in 1 of those versions.
Joe – The one thing you have to give him is Dickey went from good to exceptionally special overnight.
3.08 ERA 192 innings, 119K 48BB 184Hits 16HR 1.20 Whip is a fine average year prior to 2012 but it in no way leads to the year he had last night.
Can he replicate 2012? Of course he can. But is it more likely he replicates 2012 or replicates 2010/2011? That’s the gamble.
Because if he goes back to his 2010/2011 ways, that may very well be good enough for Toronto being surrounded by the roster they have – but it wouldn’t be good enough for the Mets.
Even though he won a cy young and gave us a season to remember he still has to prove it was a sign of things to come rather than just a really great year.
Essentially, Dickey reinvented himself. As a knuckleballer, this was just his third season in the majors. Most pitchers that I see ramp up during their first 3 years of their development in the pros. Why would Dickey be any different?
I get that. I do and I promise you I hope to see Dickey pitch Toronto to a World Series so long as it doesn’t impact the Mets.
But your example ignores a massive jump in performance.
If I asked you to name the best 3 young starting pitchers in baseball you’d probably say Price, Kershaw, and King Felix
All 3 of them gradually got to the point of 200+ strikeouts for example, which the K’s are what made Dickey special.
Price: 188, 218, 205 (Cy Young)
Kershaw: 185, 212, 248 (Cy Young)
King: 175, 217, 232 (Cy Young)
Dickey: 104, 134, 230 (Cy Young)
Those numbers are DRASTICALLY different compared to the best 3 young pitchers who got a cy young within 3-5 years of pitching in the bigs.
He has to prove that he’s a 200+ strikeout guy because it came out of nowhere. The other guys worked their way to that # in a natural progression, they didn’t increase their K’s by almost 100.
But Dickey already had the experience and savvy. 20-21 year olds usually dont. It builds with time. Failing was the best thing every to happen to Dickey. When he reinvented himself it all cam together. Everyone is trying to pigeon hole Dickey. You can’t. He’s a very unique case and the standard rules do not apply.
Your stuff is your stuff though. Dickey could easily be a 170K type pitcher in 2013 which is nothing to look down upon but I still think he just had an exceptionally special 2012 and banking on such a thing is dangerous
Mr. North Jersey – Having trouble with the reply button so I’ll drop this here.
>>AA never said that that I recall during the interview. In fact he did say that he tried many versions of a deal so it is quite possible that Gose may have been in 1 of those versions.
Fair enough. Here’s exactly what you did say.
>>Anthopoulos said d’Arnaud was key for Mets from beginning. Anthopoulos tried to do it without including d’Arnaud in the deal. Anthopoulos tried a lot of different versions of the deal but Mets were pretty adament that
d’Arnaud was the guy the Mets needed to have.
In no place in that quote is the name Gose mentioned. In fact, it is stated quite clearly that d’Arnaud was the centerpiece of the deal from day 1 and nobody named Gose or anything else was.
>>Anthopoulos said when they finally put d’Arnaud on the table he was on the table for about 10 days but that wasn’t moving the deal at all.
Yes, I agree and already mentioned this.
>>Anthopoulos finally asked Alderson what would get the deal done and Alderson said Syndergaard.
Again, Syndergaard, not Gose. He could have asked for Gose but he didn’t. He asked for the best pitching prospect in the Blue Jays organization, one who is widely acclaimed as a top 1 or 2 starter, and he got him.
Now maybe Alderson did ask for a package of d’Arnaud and Gose and AA made him “settle” for d’Arnaud and Syndergaard but if he did then it would seem only logical that he be making that claim. It would make him look like a stronger negotiator. Instead he looks like he gave what the Mets demanded.
But again, I’m happy with how things turned out.
This is the problem with peoples logic with regards to rating pitchers on wins. Dickey did not “Give” us 20 wins. He gave us amazing opportunities to win those games with his 2.73, as he did in 2010 and 2011 with his 2.84 and 3.24, respectively. Just because the offense couldn’t produce in his starts to add to his W column, does NOT take away from the fact that R.A. Dickey has probably been the 2nd best pitcher in baseball over the last 3 years, behind only Clayton Kershaw. Your final statement claiming Clayton only won 14 games in 2012 is unbelievably deceiving in the fact that he had a 2.53 ERA, you CANT discredit that.
Nobody is discrediting anything. Dickey had an outstanding year. But the fact all the anti-trade people have been saying here since the trade was made is that Dickey is the current Cy Young winner. He won that award based on wins and loses as does virtually every Cy Young winner. Nobody was making an era argument until just now.
Kershaw had a better era than Dickey last year, should he have won it? He did get 93 votes so it’s not like some people didn’t think so. Kershaw even beat Dickey in Wins above replacement. But in the end it went to the guy with more wins and loses.
And to use your logic the same thing could happen to Dickey in Toronto. He could have another great era and end up with a worse record than he did this year. Happens all the time. And thats the point.
The same people who hate this trade are going to judge it by how many games Dickey wins in Toronto, not his era, vs, how the Synergaard and progresses and d’Arnaud plays.
You want to talk logic, here’s some logic. Stop using the Cy Young award when it suits your purpose as part of the argument and then jumping to other issues when its inconvenient. Dickey had 2 outstanding years for the Mets. When he was very publicly shopped, he had no more than 3 serious suitors and only 1 who stepped up with a deal worth taking.
Make any argument you want about his value. The market decides a players value and the value the Mets got for Dickey led one American League executive to say that Anthopoulos was “out of his mind” to make that deal. I agree.
Boots and Joe D. win this argument hands down.
Pitchers get the W’s but not unless the team wins for them.
The individual stats like ERA+, WHIP, OOBP, OBA, ERA tells the real story.
Other stats like K/9, BB/9, GB%, GB/FB, etc. tell you a little about how they achieved the first set of stats.
BABIP and FIP tells you how much luck was involved.
When everyone learns that, there ill be a lot less arguing about who’s the better pitcher or how good a particular pitcher is.
Last three years, R.A. Dickey = Elite