21
2012
MMO Mailbag: Twins Willing To Trade?
An article by 
With the Mets still on the hunt for an outfield, we received the following e-mail from Phil:
I can’t believe the Mets haven’t traded for Josh Willingham yet. After some injury issues he averaged .253/.350/.501 with 64 HRs the last two years. At worst, he’s slightly better defensively than Duda. I kept hearing the Twins would be looking for a #4 or 5 pitcher in return. Isn’t two years of Willingham worth a Dillon Gee? Or Familia + a mid-level arm? The Twins won 66 games last year so I doubt they’re too attached to a 33-year-old LF earning $14 mil through 2014. In Queens he’d ALMOST legitimize the Mets lineup. Should the Mets be as interested as I am?
First, I really like Willingham from the days he played in Florida. He’s not a spectacular player, just solid and consistent. Back in July, I even suggested that the Mets check in on Willingham. The problem there was they still had Jason Bay under contract.
Willingham turns 34 this February, and will be making $7m in 2013 and 2014. Despite his age concerns, he had a pretty solid 2012 season. Target Field isn’t exactly known for being homerun friendly, yet he managed to hit 21 HR at home (35 in total).
The problem as I see it is you’re still stuck with figuring out what to do with Lucas Duda. I think we saw enough to know that Duda is not a right fielder, the problem is, neither is Willingham. Willingham is a below average fielder and came up as a 3B with Florida. He was moved to LF for a few reasons, none of them were because he’d be a good outfielder. Including the minor leagues, Willingham has played RF 39 times.
Now, I want to be clear. I think he’s a better hitter than Duda. However, I am not sure how much of a drastic difference he can bring the Mets in 2013 and 2014 compared to Duda. I say this because I don’t think you can put Duda and Willingham in the same outfield.
When the Phillies acquired Revere from Minnesota CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury reported that the Phillies also tried to get Willingham in the deal but Minnesota wouldn’t make the move. So if a team desperate to win a championship in 2013 couldn’t get the right price for Willingham, what does that say about the Mets chances? That tells me that Minnesota isn’t looking to deal him right now.
The problem for the Mets with regards to the outfield is that next year’s free agent class is not too attractive. I like Hunter Pence, but is he the answer? I like Ellsbury, but he doesn’t solve the power needs in the lineup.
I’m not excited at all about the thought of possibly signing Scott Hairston to be an every day player. I think his numbers from last year prove he performed much better when he was not a starter. So if a free agent like Cody Ross is not brought to Citi Field, then I think the Mets need to look at 3 right fielders in the trade market.
Alex Rios – The right handed hitting White Sox outfielder is making $12.5m for the next two seasons with a 2015 team option. In 2012 he hit .304 with 25 HR, 91 RBI, and a .850 OPS. The problem with Rios is that he seems to go to the school of Mike Pelfrey when it comes to consistency. What I mean by that is, he has one very good year, followed by a stinker. 2012 good, 2011 stinker, 2010 good, 2009 stinker. He doesn’t play an amazing RF, but he plays an average RF.
Michael Cuddyer – Another right handed bat, Cuddyer is signed for $10.5m in 2013 and 2014. Cuddyer brings a little bit of versatility in the field. He’s by no means a good fielder, I’d say slightly below average. What he does do though is give the Mets an opportunity to play him at 1B on occasion or even at 2B or 3B if necessary. Cuddyer battled through injuries in the 2nd half of 2012. Most of his trouble stemmed from a strained oblique.
Justin Upton – I’ve been on the record more than a few time saying I am concerned that Upton’s offensive production is more a product of his friendly park than his own talent. His numbers since 2011 back me up. Or do they? 2011 was the first year that Upton’s name was seriously thrown out on the public trade market. 2011 was also the year the Arizona fans began to boo their starting RF. There have been claims that at times those boos turned into racial taunts – very inexcusable However, I doubt every night he got booed there was racial overtones involved. So his reaction by saying he “doesn’t care” what the fans think really concerns me when you talk about playing for the Mets.
For my money though, Upton is the best bet based on the market and availability of corner OFs. I think you’d pay a similar price for somebody like Rios based on Chicago’s season expectations, so why not bump the offer up a bit and go for the bigger reward? Perhaps a change of scenery and playing with a childhood friend can help Upton reach his potential? Offering something like Flores, Havens, Familia and even Den Dekker perhaps? I’m not sure if that gets it done? I will say one thing, if this were to happen (and I don’t think it will) you’ll see a drastic change of tone from a lot of Mets fans when talking about the future of this ball club.
Moving Forward – The Mets are stuck in the outfield right now. This is why you’re going to see stories about the Mets kicking the tires on somebody like Grady Sizemore. The corner OF spots were once thought to be an easy find, but if you look around both the Mets, Phillies and even the Yankees are stuck with little to no power in the corner. Figuring this out will be a truly big task for the Mets over the next year.
I’m not sure what the answer is right now, but I am pretty sure it’s not trading for Willingham which would give the Mets two poor fielding left fielders – with one of them forced to play RF.
Thanks for the e-mail Phil, and keep em coming!
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
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The issue with Willingham and Cuddyer will always be how much they want to invest in 1-2 year tied over guys that will have no part of the hoped for revival in 2014+. That includes money and prospects.
What I would like to see though is at least guys that can play real defense if they are bringing someone in.
Upton though, he at least is signed long enough and is young enough to be considered a foundation piece.
at this point, if they can at least find a decent glove RH hitting platoon partner (big splits welcome!) that would be a huge boost.
At this point, it makes very little sense for the Mets to give up significant pieces in a trade for Willingham – who is signed to a very friendly contract.
I suppose he´d cost at least Mejia, Duda and one of the better A-ball arms like Montero, Tapia, Fulmer or DeGrom. Don´t think that´s such a bright move considering where the Mets stand right now.
Again, while patience is tough to endure, for now, it doesn´t make a lot of sense to invest in any sort of dramatic shortterm upgrades – be it financially or in terms of parting with young talent.
First you need to get young talent such as Harvey, Wheeler, D´Arnaud, to a lesser degree Nieuwenhuis, Mejia or Familia established in the majors (in 2013), then you trade for missing pieces. Not make major moves, as boring and uninspiring as it may be.
A year from now, you can either sign free agents like Choo, Ellsbury and others or trade for a Justin Upton, Carlos Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, Josh Willingham or whoever is available once you have a much better idea of where you stand.
Dr Dooby – I appreciate the comment. I think with teams like Philly, Atlanta, and even the Yanks involved – if you want Upton, you better get him in 2013.
His contract even makes more sense than what it’d cost to sign lets say Ellsbury.
As much as I question Upton’s validity away from Arizona as of late, I can’t deny that he could make a world of a difference for the Mets
Sure, but to get him, you´d probably have to sacrifice Niese & Wheeler. Which would be very counterproductive to what the goal is, i. e. create a strong pitching staff.
It´s still too early for the Mets to make a major move to add shortterm talent (even if Upton certainly qualifies as medium term, being under contract through 2015).
The Phillies & Yankees probably don´t and won´t have the talent needed to acquire Upton at any point over the next 12-18 months. And while the Braves may, I´m not sure they´ll have space for his 14+ million salary. They have a very hard cap around 90-100 million $ annual payroll and don´t seem to have a lot of flexibility.
You think so? I’m not sure about that honestly. It would totally depend on how much or how little they value a kid like Flores along with somebody like Familia. Those are two very strong prospects in my eyes that are 1-2 years away rather than 3-4. If you pair them up and build a deal around them, I don’t see it as that bad of an offer.
Flores and Familia is not getting you Upton. They have been asking for the Moon and the Sun for Upton (from other teams), if it’s not Wheeler and Niese, then they’ll ask for Niese, Synderguard, and Flores. Not worth it if you ask me, not even close,. I much rather give up that package for Mike GianCarlo Stanton
I know his defense is lousy, but what would it take to get the Cubs to eat most of Soriano’s salary in a deal? His road splits are pretty good and he is right handed with power.
If we could send Duda and a mid level prospect, we’d be in a slightly better spot.
Who’s gonna pay that salary? The Wilpons?
That is my question. How do we convince the Cubs to eat most of it?
Donal, we often are in sync. Not regarding Soriano: the man is aging too quickly. His fielding sucks. He’s a K machine. He sure has power, but I think he’s in twilight of career and would give us next to nothing. Would never want him as an everyday player.
Meh, just throwing it out there. Trying to address the issue from another angle.
Donal if he was free, I would certainly take him. And by free, the same amount Omar paid for GMJR.
Believe it or not, Soriano’s actually been a pretty solid performer the last few years. Not $18 MM a year, but pretty solid.
No its not worth it, not even close to worth it.
Willingham won’t happen. Hairston’s not awful, but a .299 OBP is definitely below average for an everyday OF. There was a lot of all or nothing with him.
Cody Ross may end up being another bust, but he is the most straight-forward route to getting a RF. Although, he’s a gamble at $10 million a year as he only hit .232 away last year (thinking Jason Bay here). However, he did hit .303 at Citi Field and .281 over the last 3 years with runners in scoring position.
So should the Mets’ lon FA be Cody Ross? Does 2 years $15-18 million sound attractive enough to get him?
Not yet anyway. He’s looking for a 3 year deal comparable to what Willingham got.
Just baseball, Wow.
Ah the Alderson free help… alaways distracting real fans by trying to get them to think the Met front office will get a guy making some dough. Wake yup and be your own person. You’ll sleep at night when you want not when this clown allows you to.
Familia and Flores are nice prospects, but nobody is trading proven major league talent like Upton for them. You need prospects that rank within the top 20 in baseball, not guys who rank withing the top 20 on the mets…
Familia is a bullpen arm, Flores can’t play any position well. You’d have to give up Wheeler to get Upton.
Lets just sign Hairston despite him not being an everyday outfielder, I would rather do that than trading prospects, giving up draft picks, or over paying for old declining players. Signing Sizemore could work in addition to Hairston since he would be coming back mid-season and thats usually when the mets have needed an infusion of new blood and haven’t gotten the last two seasons (under SA). Call me dilusional but i like our current outfield with kirk and duda, its not stellar but functional. Give kirk a full year and lets see what happens better yet hire a better hitting coach, lol.