19
2012
MMO Mailbag: Should We Target Detroit’s Drew Smyly?
An article by 
I received this e-mail from Hitman:
What do you think about the possibility of bringing in Drew Smyly of the Tigers? I’ve already touched up previously in a few comments about his great breaking stuff and if you haven’t seen a highlight video of his from the 2012 season on Youtube, watch it. You’ll be impressed in what you see. Alderson was talking about bringing in another starter that could win 10-12 games. This is the youngster for the job.
First, thanks for the e-mail! I think what we learned over the last few days about the Mets is that for starters, they aren’t going to tip their hand. Alderson said he didn’t expect many changes at all during a time when there was a Dickey deal on the table and nobody knew about it. Some call this lying, I call it being a General Manager.
Currently the Dodgers and the Tigers represent two playoff caliber teams with too much starting pitching. For the Dodgers, Chad Billingsley, Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly all find themselves in a competition for the 5th spot in the rotation. For Detroit, it’s Porcello & Smyly.
Looking at Detroit, they have Verlander-Sanchez-Fister-Scherzer-Porcello-Smyly. If you take a look at the Tigers needs, they need late inning relief, maybe a left fielder, and then obviously any prospects they can get.
When I look at the 6 man rotation they have right now, one thing strikes me as obvious. Smyly is their only left handed starter. So right off the bat, I think it’s more likely that they trade Rick Porcello than Drew Smyly unless they were overwhelmed by Smyly.
Smyly was rushed to the big leagues just like Porcello was. In 2011, he pitched in 22 games between A+ & AA ball and then last year he appeared in 7 AAA games before heading up to the majors.
Smyly struck out 94 batters in 99 innings of big league work, as a young starting pitcher, Detroit has to love those numbers. Smyly relies heavily on a 4 seam fastball, followed by a pretty good slider. He also has the ability to throw a cutter, changeup and sinker. So a 5 pitch starter is definitely intriguing, plus he is under team control for a few years.
If I were the Tigers, I would sell high on Smyly and I don’t think the Mets are in the business of buying high right now.
Lucas Duda would have to be the active player that gets sent to the Tigers, and he’s not good enough to net a 23 year old big league lefty. So you’d have to throw in a significant prospect in my opinion. Is Wilmer Flores that guy?
Flores right now is stuck within the Mets farm, but with the forecast of Harvey-Niese-Wheeler-Gee-Familia-Syndergaard (and others), is Smyly really the player the Mets need to go after if they trade Flores? I don’t think he is. I think if they are trading Flores, they need to net an impact outfielder.
Plus, if you are helping them out in the LF/DH department, you’re creating another hole in the Mets outfield.
I think the Mets are more likely looking at a short term solution in the starting rotation because they likely trust their young arms are good enough long term.
I think the Mets are much more likely to go after pitchers like Edwin Jackson, Shaun Marcum or Francisco Liriano depending on what the market is dictating for their contract.
And in Detroit’s case, I think they would much rather trade Porcello than Smyly.
I think if one of these 3 do not end up with the Mets, then I feel one of the Dodgers arms (most likely Harang, Capuano, or Lilly) are more likely to fit the Mets trade criteria and price than Porcello or Smyly.
I think Drew Smyly is a very talented young arm and I’d love to see him in a Mets uniform, but I just do not think it does enough for Detroit to make the move and I do not think the Mets are in a position where they feel Smyly is a must have.
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
57 Comments + Add Comment
Recent Comments
- Joey D.: on Mets Are Ten Games Below .500 – It’s Starting To Feel Like 1978: Hi Lanny, Expecting all to succeed in the...
- BadBadLeroyBrown: on Team Source On Wheeler: “He’s Ready”: Sims, He's a lifelongmetsfan they know EVERYTHING! Wanna...
- Djmurphy: on Mets Have Opportunity To Soar To New Heights: Pass
- BadBadLeroyBrown: on Mets Need More Time To Get Better Understanding Of Ike Davis?: Money ball and SABR go hand in...
- BadBadLeroyBrown: on Mets Need More Time To Get Better Understanding Of Ike Davis?: LMFAO!!!! @CARMINE the computer program VINNY FTW!!!!...
Need Tickets To The Mets Game?
Check Out These Great MLB Links!
Photographs From Gordon Donovan
5393 Fans Follow Us On Twitter!
1269 Fans Like Us On Facebook!
2341 Fans Read Our Feed!
1702 Fans Subscribe via Daily Email!
‘I think the Mets are more likely looking at a short term solution in the starting rotation…’
Have to agree with this.. I don’t think we’ll be targeting a front line pitcher to replace RAD. In fact, I think SA admitted as much when he said they’d be picking up another starter.
I expect a 1 year deal for a back of the rotation type starter, and/or a reclamation project.
It does seem like we’re going that way, so I’m hoping it’s Liriano.
Liriano would be a good fit. Low cost, good k numbers. Having a bigger park will probably help lower his HR rate. For him to come to NY and have a good year, he would be able to leverage that into a good contract.
I tend to agree here with the idea that they will try to get somebody on the cheap that has shown the ability to perform but been dealing with issues – just like when they signed Capuano. I’d prefer Edwin Jackson but I think I’m dreaming. So it’s Marcum or Liriano.
If we assume Johan is going to give us 20 starts then I think the Mets need a righty more than another lefty. Marcum is the guy to me.
Marcum dealt with elbow issues but then it was a half issue that sidelined him the longest.
He had Tommy John and missed 2009 but from 2007-2012 he’s averaged 27 starts a year and posted a 3.67 ERA and 166 innings of work with a 1.18 Whip. He’s very under the radar when he’s on the mound.
He is not as flashy as Liriano but he’s much more reliable. If the Mets are looking for a starting pitcher on the cheap, Marcum is the guy I hope they target
Jackson aint happening. He got over 10m last year and with all the dollars flying around this year, he will probably get close to that again.
Edwin Jackson is Mike Pelfrey that can hit. NO THANKS.
I don’t think it’s gonna happen either but for the record, Edwin Jackson K’s way more batters than Pelfrey (probably about 40+ per year) and if Pelfrey was to be the Mets 4/5 starter he isn’t a bad option. The problem was he was often pushed into the #1 role which was unfair to him. He’s not a #1 starter.
i would have LOVED to see big Pelf again in a mets uniform
I think he has the stuff but not the smarts to be a big winner. Plus as a Boras client, he was not staying here. Good luck to him
Capuano would be fine , and yes the mets should aim a Starter for 1 year only . Cant wait for the season to start . First six games are at home agaisnt the Padres and Marlins , looks like a good chance for a solid start . GO METS
Great question by Hitman and response by Mike. Aside from Wheeler, our best arms pitched in A-Ball or even lower in the case of Fulmer. Plus lefthanders are pretty sparse. If the price is right I’d take this lefty. He has a live arm.
Yeah, I don’t see Detroit giving up their only lefty starter.
I sure hope we are getting more than 20 starts from Santana, we got 21 from him last year and he’s now 2 years removed from should surgery. He’s also playing for a new contract so I expect him to give us a heck of a lot more than the 117 innings we got last year.
I could be wrong but I just don’t see a trade coming for a back of the rotation pitcher. It seems a lot more likely that we will go the FA route. If a trade is coming outfield help seems a much bigger priority.
i agree with you , we need Outfield help (everyday) and then some RP´s .
How about Matsuzaka or Lohse ?
I’d be floored if Lohse gets anything less than 3 years which doesn’t fit the Mets right now and Dice K has a lot to figure out and personally I think he may go back to Japan.
See how under the radar Marcum is? haa
so you think marcum would sign anything less then 3 years ?
considering it’s being reported that the padres are talking to him, yes – yes I do. Especially since he suffered 2 injuries last year.
how about sheets for a one year contract?
Sheets retired…
ouch
Angelo you need to get your Sheets together.
Yes Sir
Forget about Jackson and Marcum, they will cost multiple years and even at one year the price tag is too high. I think the pool includes Liriano and Chris Young (yes, that Chris Young) from the free agents, and Capuano or Harang from the trade pool. My preference would be Capuano if the cost isn’t too high followed by Young.
You want off the radar, I’ll give you off the radar. Javier Vazquez. He may not be interested in coming back but it would be worth a phone call.
1. He is affordable.
2. He wants to play on the east coast if he plays at all.
3 The last time he pitched in 2011 Buck was his catcher.
4. He pitched very well in 2011 and ate up a ton of innings.
5. If he does come back it will be for now more than 1 year.
still like to imagine Matsuzaka in a mets uniform
And lest you think I’m kidding about Vazquez, he is currently pitching for his hometown team, Ponce, in PR and will represent PR in the WBC in March. He’s only 36 and over his last 11 starts in 2001 for the Marlins he was 8-3 with a 1.62 era. He’s healthy and can chew up a ton of innings.
The only real question is does he want to comeback.
he might be a fit , whatever, but this looks like pretty useless
“He’s only 36 and over his last 11 starts in 2001 for the Marlins he was 8-3 with a 1.62 era”
i mean the WTC were still there back then
Yea, that was a typo. Should have been 2011. He took 2012 off, but it wasn’t because of injury. He wasn’t sure if he wanted to play anymore. It now looks as if he is considering a comeback.
well, a solid FO like ours should have him on the radar at least, lets hope for the best .
You might get Liriano or Marcum on short term deals, and they have the ability to pitch better than what they get. They have some upside so I would like to see that materialize.
I really like the thought of taking a chance on Liriano because he fits well against the NL East line ups, particularly the Braves. Plus he might benefit from Santana being there, maybe Santana works on the change up with him, and has some influence on him to that takes him to another level, maybe throw more change ups and throw more strikes. There is upside if you think of it in that manner. He might be what we have seen the past few years but to me it is worth a shot because he already has the stuff. The fastball and slider are great. One year 5 or 6 mill is worth that risk.
I agree. Liriano is a perfect fit as he can add a little to the rotation for now and pitch out of the pen when Wheeler is ready… assuming no injuries before.
lariano is certainly an interesting possibility if they can get him on terms that fit the budget. Maybe even sign him with an option year in case he relaly rebounds.
I’d certainly go after Smyly. I’m not worried about Familia or Syndergaard making the rotation at all. In fact , I’d include Familia and others in order to get him. A cost controlled Lefty with a Hugh K rate? It will cost for sure, but I think it would be worth it and considering we have no clue what Santana (or Gee) will give the team, so how do you not go after him? And losing Duda is not creating a hole in the OF. There already is a hole there with him in the OF.
I just don’t get why they are trading him and what on earth we would have to offer them in return. Unless they think Parnell can be their closer.
well losing duda would mean you cut the teams HRs, and its not that we hitting lights out . Sure thing Smyly is the men to get , but at what cost? I would give them pitching prospects though. But no field player
Flores, Mejia and Duda? Flores, Familia and Duda? And in Tapia?
I don’t truly understand either. Porcello wouldn’t be horrible, but I’d over pay for Smyly.
how about flores ,mejia and a handshake? i would not give up familia or duda
I would too, but no way Det does that. I’d prefer to keep Famila over Mejia too, but Mejia can’t be high on people’s radars, based on size and injury history. And Duda is a horrible defensive outfielder who has bad splits. He should hold up no trade that would make this team better.
you have a point with Duda´s defense, but it would be another hole to fit . Smyly yes, overpaying or creating holes on the field, no.
I see your point, though I would argue that Duda already is a hole…
well hard to arguee with that, i have to much memory of him playing Double A defense , awful . So Duda, Mejia and Flores for Smyly? And then a short FA solution for the outfield?
Man I am having Dejavu…
Anyway based on what I have read, they are only going to trade him IF they can get a top SS and we don’t have a match there. They aren’t looking for prospects as a win now team.
Flores plays SS…
Sure he did.
Oh and I brought this up too. Maybe they would view Parnell as a potential closer. So perhaps something like Parnell, Mejia and uh?
Do that and then target Hanrahan and Tabata? Tabata’s power sucks, but he plays ok in the OF and his splits aren’t horrible. Just slapping crap against the wall at this point.
Zucchini plays SS and he was the 2nd rated player in our system, per that one report. I’m just killing myself this morning…
Yup but he’s not ready.
Scanning the comments, I don’t see any mention that Smyly, Capuano or Lily would give the Mets 3 left-handed starters. Sure there are some great left-handed hitters that they could be tough against, but there are far more right-handed hitters in MLB.
I think Harang would be better than the other lefty options. He’s not too expensive ($7 million) and he’s only on contract for this season with a $2 million 2014 buyout.
Come to think of it, maybe they just use Mejia or Familia, or suffer through the cannon fodder foremen we saw last year (McHugh and Hefner) until Wheeler is ready. We’re talking way cheap and as short of term as the Mets like.
You are assuming Johan is there past start #2.
considering the suprise box you have with santana , i would say its better to have one more lefty then one less
plus i love Niese but i dont see him on a top level yet
Also guys like Cap and Liriano can slide to the pen if Wheeler becomes ready and there are no injuries.
yes Capuano would be a good choice considering what you have to do to get him, i would like that
I guess I missed where the blogfather said
“Yesterday on WFAN, Sandy Alderson said free-agent LHP Francisco Liriano is on his list of pitchers who he would consider signing to join the Mets and compete for a spot in the rotation.”
Again, IMO would be a great choice if reasonable.
I’d be OK with that too.
off topic but definetly MMO related
dont miss the show guys
http://metsmerizedonline.com/chat/