2
2012
Mets Have Many Needs, Too Few Viable Options
An article by 
They’ll start showing up today for the Winter Meetings, and when they do, the Mets will have a lot on their plate, but little hope of cleaning it.
Their first priority, now that David Wright is done, will be to extend R.A. Dickey’s contract. Dickey prefers three years, but would take two if the dollars are higher. You can bet Dickey’s agents will point to the $12-million, one-year deal the Yankees offered Andy Pettitte.
Although Dickey is the Cy Young Award winner, he’s still only done it for one season at a high level, while Pettitte has over 200 victories and is regarded as one of the game’s best postseason pitchers.
While they are trying to re-sign Dickey, the Mets will also be exploring the trade market for him. However, considering Dickey’s age, career productivity and that many still regard the knuckleball as a gimmick pitch, the Mets might not get in return what they’d like.
Any team trading for him would likely want the chance to negotiate an extension, but their apprehensions would be the same as the Mets. Dickey’s best option might be to take the most money he can in a one-year deal – which would still set him for life – and enter the market next year.
The Mets’ next priorities are to build their outfield and bullpen, and bolster their catching.
There are four name outfielders, of which the Mets have no shot at any of them. Josh Hamilton has the greatest upside, but also the most baggage. The Rangers won’t give him a five-year plus contract, but could offer substantially less and see if he’ll turn his life around.
The Braves won’t keep Michael Bourn now that they’ve signed B.J. Upton. Reportedly, Bourn is asking a lot, both in terms of years and dollars. Cincinnati, Washington and Philadelphia are the most prominently mentioned potential suitors.
Nick Swisher will price himself out of the Yankees’ plans, which means he has no chance with the Mets.
Shane Victorino might be the only FA outfielder the Mets could afford, but they’d have to break their budget for him.
Angel Pagan is seeking a payday and won’t want to come back. Who out there sparks your imagination if they don’t want to spend to keep Scott Hairston?
Rick Ankiel? Reed Johnson? Cody Ross? Xavier Nady?
Assuming the Mets don’t make an outfield splash – and that’s a reasonable assumption – they plan on entering spring training with an outfielder from left to right, of Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Mike Baxter.
The bullpen also requires a complete makeover, with Frank Francisco and Bobby Parnell, along with lefthanders Robert Carson and Josh Edgin, the main holdovers.
The Mets still don’t know what role they want to use Jenrry Mejia. They have to decide whether their other bodies such as Justin Hampson, Jeremy Hefner and Elvin Ramirez will suit them better than Randy Choate, Francisco Cordero, Chad Durbin or Mike Gonzalez.
Most relievers aren’t that pricey, but that their teams are willing to let them go should tell you what you need to know about how good they are.
About the Author: John Delcos
I am an active member of the BBWAA and have covered Major League Baseball in several capacities for over 20 years, including ten in New York working the Mets' and Yankees' beat. I covered the Baltimore Orioles for eight years and the Cleveland Indians before that. I currently serve as an editor and senior staff writer for Mets Merized Online. Follow me on Twitter @jdelcos.
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I seriously doubt any movement in the pen will take place during the meetings; however, I would not be surprised to see the Mets come out of the winter meetings with an outfielder. I truly want to dream about possibilities but have a hard time doing so given SA’s track record. Given SA’s past couple years I assume nothing will get done except a few more agents will become tired of his slow paced negotiations and double talk.
Well John I totally disagree….
There is nothing but thier own short sighted and limited thinking that is stopping them from addressing all thier problems.
No one but the guy they see in the Mirror is limiting this franchise from spending more than 100M on Payroll.
No one but thier own philosophy regarding holding onto kids and insisting the only deals that CAN be made involve kids coming in not going out is stopping them.
They have limited themselves to NO OPTIONS, not the MLB, thier MiL system nor any other entity regarding moves that could be made.
They have set the limitation on themselves and maybe they think they have a good reason and maybe they don’t feel they don’t have a choice.
But thats a problem of thiers that they need to work out and thier solution was to do little to nothing that has any major impact whatsoever.
They re-signed Wright to STAY in place not improve. It’s not a signing to get better but to not get worse… Treading Water
Re-Signing Dickey would be more treading water which I am fine with but it’s not really something that is going to make next season more promising than it was before the signing,
If we are better because of either of those signings it will only be marginal as how much better could Dickey and Wright actually get? 10 more HRs from Wright? 5 more Wins from Dickey? Sure could happen but if there vare going to be any significant changes it’s going to be from all those other guys around them.
Harvey being better and for a whole season…
Maybe Wheeler contributing in the 2nd half…
Ike Davis hitting for average…
Lucas Duda hitting enough to make his fielding bearable.
If they got off thier high colonic horse and signed a decent power right hitting OFer then that would be a signing to improve. All it could cost is a measly 10-18 Mil of increase in the Payroll.
In that case choices ARE limited but even the few options that were available were out of reach due limitations we placed on ourselves not because those players were not available.
They wish to solve problems and have options open to them they need to stp closing doors and options available to them.
The problem with saber and all these conditions like PPPA, making hitters all have the same approach, relying on OBP, strict rules on trying to get the SP out of the game, etc, new rules on when a guy is ready and when he’s not and all these beliefs is that it’s not organic.
These saber beliefs are rigid. Baseball like all sports or a lot of things in life is organic and to put restrictions or guidelines on what you believe should be done and working against the natural flow of talent, talent movement, and just letting things evolve as they do hinders what naturally should occur and when you do that you’re going to have a problem. I can’t believe that this team will ever have success if they continue down this path.
But like I said thats a decision they made for themselvs it’s not imposed on them by anyone but themselves.
Nothing and no one is stopping this team from solving it’s problems but they themselves.
They have put roadblock up across every avenue available to them.
Hi Bayonne and Metsie,
Both correct – it’s not only the small market financial attitude that is killing us but that method of play statistical mentality being enforced from the major league level down to that of A ball. Those attributes work fine in certain areas of business and law in which Sandy is well versed to handle but in the case of the Mets, Selig forced upon the Wilpons the work of an amateur better equipped to have stayed working for the commissioner instead.
Sabermetrics is the field of scientifically analyzing data in order to produce valid scientific knowledge. Well, original Met and winner of our first victory ever, Jay Hook, received a mechanical engineering degree from Northwestern. He was able to put down on paper the scientific dynamics of physics as to what enables a pitcher to throw a curve ball. OK, Jay had the knowledge of what causes the ball to curve – but had little success throwing it successfully himself.
Knowing why a curve ball curves does not mean one is qualified to either throw or teach it. Knowing a lot of advanced stats does not mean one is qualified to to be a judge on the game or teach it as well.
“Sabermetrics is the field of scientifically analyzing data ”
I find nothing scientific about it.
What I see is a bunch of folks picking thier favorite stats, mashing them together in haphazard and unrelated ways and calling it a Saber….
for example the OPS stat….
Take OBP add SLG divide by two (as if SLG is Equal in strength to getting on base) and calling it a metric.
A guy with high OBP low SLG is as good as a guy with high SLG and lower OBP?
Really? So a slap singles hitter or a guy who walks a lot is the same or better than a power hitter who by being such drives in more runs?
Both metrics are unrelated and only share a marginal similarity “a BASE”. Yet they are sabermetrically mashed and used as if they are scientifically derived? NONSENSE!
Thats not science it’s just making up math examples that have no relation to the real world in thier calculations and the only basis in reality are the variables plugged into it using real world data.
And whats worse is when a metric doesn’t display the player they think it should they rejigger the weights to favor them and get them on the list…
Hence the bad and 15 ways of calculating WAR!
Metsie, you’re just as ignorant and just as stupid as you were three years ago when I started reading this site. it’s sad.
first off, you don’t even know how to calculate OPS. It’s just OBP plus SLUG. there is no divide by two. I don’t know where that came from.
secondly, all that does is combine the two biggest factors in run-scoring to give you a quick assessment of the player’s overall offensive value in terms of producing runs. It really works best when it’s very high or very low. A player with a career OPS of .900 or above with a decent amount of plate appearances, I don’t care who he is or what his other numbers are, he is hitting third or fourth for me and is an all star. A player who has a career OPS below .700 had better be Ozzie or Yadier defensively.
anything in the .700′s, I will need to see more numbers to get a better gauge of who your are as a player. .800′s you will also probably automatically be in my lineup because you either get on base at an elite rate, or hit for power at an elite rate, or a little of both, all of which have great value in a lineup.
and to say there’s nothing scientific about metrics, I don’t even know where to begin with a comment like that. That’s one of the most ignorant statements i’ve read on here.
Please tell me the scientific principle that is being used on OPS….
A+B=C
What scientific principle is being illustrated there?
OBP is not the biggest factor in run scoring. Only 23% of OB ever results in an RS.
SLG may have some important because the higher it is the more bases you get per OB and therefore might drive in more runs per hit but your “SCIENTIFIC” principle counts both as EQUAL!
There is no science in OPS whatsoever you could just as easily add BA with SLG and get a much more accurate metric since SLG only applies to hits and OBP counts walks and HBP.
That would be a lot closer to scientific than that crap you guys think is a metric.
lol.
Hi Metsie,
Remember when we got to college we (hopefully) went from memorizing facts to understanding and questioning their validity? Sounds like the same with those advanced stats as well – memorization without quantative understanding.
Know many claim they went from from memorizing traditional stats to questioning their validity to formulate their opinions as well. Understand the point many make, that by focusing on advanced analytical statistics they got to better understand why things happen. But I also feel many have not taken the next step after that and asked themselves how valid are these when it applies to knowing how the game is played, especially when seen in the context as how to what seems sound on paper does not play out as well when on the field because baseball is not a controlled substance but the outcome of human endevors that often contradict all logic.
Two things going on here Joey…
1 – Some metrics are created badly by guys trying to prove a theory and having to create a biased metric in an attempt to make a point that can’t be proven without metric meddling…
2 – Folks spouting Metrics they know nothing about, how they are constructed, and read off an Internet spreadsheet and were told tells a story they don’t really tell.
It’s kind of like String Theory in a way….
They take the KNOWN Equations and then throw in a few made up calculations to fill in the holes of the Physics equations they don’t know with things they can’t prove to balance the equation and call it an answer….
String Theory was dead in the water for awhile because they couldn’t get it all to add up until they decided Oh Wait there aren’t 10 dimensions lets add an 11th and then the Math works out….Doesn’t mean there are actually 11 Dimensions and the fact you can’t prove there isn’t doesn’t mean it does!
Sure it could be the answer to something but since they don’t really have a clue as to if those made up fillers actually correspond to reality in any way shape or form it’s really just balancing an equation with made up stuff that can’t be proven (or disproven) which means it could all be just a load of bunk.
Maybe it’s the theory of everything and if not its the theory of NOTHING!
Sure it uses real world known variables…and quite a few made up variables that could be untrue as well.
Until someone finds out that Theory of everything things like a true WAR metric are impossible to get right. Thinking OBP is more important than something else is just closed minded claptrap!
And to think getting on base and adding it to how many bases you get per OB EQUALLY is a good way of judging players especially ones who are hyper good in one area and bad in another is just hiding the story both OBP and SLG tell you and are significant in determining exactly what player your going to get!
Metrics like that work great in a stratomatic or computer simulated ball game but it never works on Grass!
Even avoiding the mashup and focusing on one stats does not bring the desired results.
Take Oakland who were all about getting high OBP players and in doing so had thier OBP decline year after year!
Poor string theory it sounded so cool in Hawkins book.
LOL the problem is even if it actually turns out to be correct no one will ever be able to prove it until someone uses it to figure out how to get to the 11th dimension to prove it exists.
Hi Metsie and Salty,
I actually thought the String Theory was exemplified in Superman III when Richard Pryor himself put in the missing ingrediants to make green kryptonite and it became red krptonite instead.
Of course, red kryptonite made Superman be something he wasn’t, so kind of the same thing with saber stats when taken too seriously…
Wow I can’t believe you went all Supeman 3 on us.
Hi Salty,
Well, when Metsie spoke said….
“They take the KNOWN Equations and then throw in a few made up calculations to fill in the holes of the Physics equations they don’t know with things they can’t prove to balance the equation and call it an answer….”
….. I couldn’t help but think of Richard Pryor sitting in front of his computer monitor when he only got about 99 percent of the component breakdown of kryptonite – he was so perplexed and determined to re-create it that he just threw in his own stuff to make up for what the formula lacked. The picture of somebody sitting in front of his or her modern PC having the same problem with a saber formula was just so strikingly similar in my mind that it even went down to the dumbfounded expression on Richard Proyer’s face.
Hi Metsie,
Scientific perhaps in other areas but not in baseball is what I meant but more to the point, the philosophy that scientific analysis beingthe end-all in controlled circumstances being applied to something completely non-controllable as the human element.
“They re-signed Wright to STAY in place not improve. It’s not a signing to get better but to not get worse… Treading Water”
BINGO
Well said Metsie they do this to themselves.If they actually Cared about winning they would fill all their needs, plain and simple.
I agree that they will not make any big splash. they will probably want to give kirk another chance in CF to see if he is the answer, same with Duda in left. I seriously doubt they will go with baxter if RF. I think they will try to fill this spot and catcher for sure. Same with the pen. I dont see any big signings here, they will see what the kids can do first. I still say the most likely move is dickey or Niese being traded for the RF (justin upton) and a good catching prospect which the dbacks have.
bite my tongue. that would be a pretty big splash. We shall see.
Look at the Knicks
Rather than spend all the available money on Mr. Marketable Jeremy Lin
They built a strong team around The formerly Greedy, Immature and Selfish Carmelo Anthony…
What the Mets did was essentially sign their version of Allan Houston with absolutely no plans of surrounding him with all-star talent.
Now Raymond Felton is performing better than Jeremy Lin for a fraction of the price
and the Knicks have one of the best teams in the league
The Mets will be a 24 + 1 team with David Wright being the superhero hitting .250 in the 2nd half of the year
With met fans blaming it on Omar for signing Castillo in 2007
or something silly like that
The Mets will trade Dickey, Murphy & Familia, to KC for Cain, Zimmer, Venture, Bonifacio & DeShields, Jr.
Duda, Mejia, Thole to Boston for Salty & Nava.
The Mets sign Cody Ross to a 3-yr deal.
Kirk is our CF.
SP Rotation: Niese, Santana, Harvey, Gee, Hefner.
The Mets make the Playoffs.
disagree about Dickey (and don’t quite follow one part).
He was extremely good 3 years in a row now. 2012 was the best, but the 2 years before were excellent on their own. So he is not some kind of 1 year wonder.
and JD seems to be saying Dickey will just go for a 1 year deal? unless it was an oddly worded way of saying he will not look for any kind of extension, and just play out on the $5 mill he is already due next year?
and replacing 3 guys while returning 4 is quite a bit short of a complete makeover. They really need to add 2 strong back end guys somehow, since the 3rd addition will be the long/swing man, and that is not hard to find.
and the odds of them adding no new OFs is very low.
of course they may not add LT up and coming stars at every position of need, but they also aren’t going to return the same team. It is very likely they will end up with 2 platoons also in the OF, but the 2 best years they ever had were built around platoons at at least 4 spots.
I was just going to post this. I don’t think even mets fans know how good Dickey has been the last three seasons. Zack Greinke who’s about to sign for a bazillion dollars with the Dodgers…Dickey has been much better than him over the last three years. The numbers don’t lie, heck, whether you like at the old school numbers or new school WAR, Dickey has been better.
If I’m the Mets, I only trade Dickey for a top ten in all of MLB prospect. He has been that good. Coupled with his price for the next 2-3 years ($5MM 2013, maybe 10-12 MM for the next two) and what other pitchers not even close to him will be getting THIS offseason, he might be the best value in baseball for pitchers.
Forget how good he has been….
While everyone else is working on the assumption that once you hit the age of 30 your numbers decline…
this 38 year Old Pitcher has been improving EVERY YEAR since he turned 36!
Just look at the Bell Curve and you see he is getting better not worse and while people think winning a Cy Young might be as good as you can get as a pitcher will if 20 Wins on a team under .500 gets you that, how many would you win if you solved the problems of the HOLES by buying what you needed and keeping that guy and let him go for 30 Wins!
All this talk of trading Dickey is just people trying to find something the mets MIGHT do so they can beat thier chest later on how they picked it as opposed to talking about what the Mets SHOULD do which is keep Dickey, Go get the best Power RHB they can find and spend some damn money!
The Mets dont have too many needs. Re-sign Dickey, sign Hairston and Ross, get Soria, lets go to the post season.
And yet, the bullpen isn’t fixed. Soria isn’t just gonna cut it.
Personally, I’d take Soria over every doosh rocket reliever Alderson ever signed, traded for or pillaged. Shocked, you don’t like him actually. I think he’d be a nice improvement.
Too many idiot Met fans that like to make things more complicated than they are. All they want to do is keep trading their top shelf players for prospects or letting them walk. Who does that?
well, the Rays and A’s for starters. both of which have had more playoff trips than the Mets in the last five years.
Mets haven’t even made the playoffs in the past 5 years lol its so sad. We should have went in 2007 or 2008 but we collapsed. Why are we such choke artists?