23
2012
Leading Off for the 2013 Mets… Jordany Valdespin?
An article by 
The Mets have not added a starting OF yet this off-season, unless you count Collin Cowgill, and with options dwindling, it looks like the Mets will have to look inwards for a lead off hitter, especially if the Mets bring in an OF that is a slugger not an on-baser. That means the Mets realistic options for lead off hitters for 2013 are:
- Ruben Tejada
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis
- Collin Cowgill
- Matt Den Dekker
- Jordany Valdespin
Tejada should really hit second. It’s not only where his game is his strongest, it seems to be where he is the most confident. Showing this statistically is interesting. Last year he hit .293 batting first in the lineup and he hist .292 batting second. His OBP batting leadoff was .334, his OBP batting second was .333. His SLG batting leadoff was .358, .333 batting second. So, it looks like from that perspective Tejada should bat leadoff, or that there isn’t a difference. However, when Tejada leads off a game (his first AB as the leadoff hitter), he hit .243 last season. He hits .303 when he leads off an inning. His OBP split is .282/.336 in favor of leading off an inning. Also in his career he has a .328 OBP batting lead off vs a .338 OBP batting second.
The same reason a lot of people discount Jordany Valdespin on the major roster, he didn’t prove himself last year, could really be applied to Kirk Nieuwenhuis as well.
I would have never really considered Valdespin to lead off if I didn’t see his Winter Numbers so far:
93 AB’s, 16 R, 26 H, 2 2B, 3 HR, 2 SB, 18 BB, .280 BA, .402 OBP, .800 OPS
Last year in the minors Jordany had 10 BB’s over 151 AB’s. Last year in the majors Jordany had 10 BB’s over 191 AB’s. Taking his small sample size from this winter, if he played the full 151+191 AB’s, he would have 66 BB’s instead of 20. That’s a large difference. That shows that he is developing the patience part of his game.
And for a comparison, these were his Winter Numbers in 2011:
107 AB’s, 11 R, 27 H, 3 2B, 3 3B, 0 HR, 10 SB, 7 BB, .252 BA, .304 OBP, .641 OPS
I recognize trepidation using Winter Numbers to project a player’s caliber, but comparing winter numbers to winter numbers is at least a statistical way of showing improvement, and Valdespin looks like a much better winter player in 2012 then he did in 2011.
Jordany’s impatience at the plate really held him back, however if he continues this winter show patience, getting on base, etc and continues that through the Spring, he has to be considered for the Major League Roster! Right now the OF is Duda/Kirk/(Baxter/Cowgill).
Compared to Kirk, Jordany’s walk rate last year was just 3% worse. They both stunk at getting on base. Kirk had moderate success last year batting lead off with a .303 OBP. However his OBP batting second was considerably higher at .351. Kirk also lacks that spunk/spark faster at the top of the lineup. I guess I still compare all lead off hitters to Reyes but I feel like Valdespin has more of a chance of doing something exciting leading off a game than Kirk only because of Valdespin’s streak of hitting pinch hit homers.
If the Mets are looking towards 2014 and 2015, then in 2013 they need to take a look at what they have. Valdespin has made an effort to up his walk game, and he should be given a chance to lead off. For Center and Left field, there should be an open competition between Kirk, Valdespin and Den Dekker. Den Dekker, if we really are taking stock in the future, should be on deck in May if Kirk or Valdespin don’t work out.
In short:
- The Mets don’t have a lead off hitter
- The Mets are really lacking in the OF this year
- The Mets are not spending money on an OF this year
- Valdespin has made improvements to his walk game this offseason
- Valdespin should be given a chance to lead off.
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About the Author: Elliot Teichman
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i disagree here, i am totally fine with ruben as our leadoff hitter . IF Valdy has improved, sure let him bat , but not as a leadoff . Also i am thrilled about what cowgill is made of . I am not saying he will be an all star , but he could bring us the stats from the outfield some of us so desperately screaming for all offseason long
Worst outfield in the Major Leagues?
Sometimes, I really feel like an idiot about baseball. This is one of those times. I can see no reason why Tejada is not leading off and Murphy batting second. I must be missing something. Ruben has a good OBP and Murph hits doubles and has good bat control. Yes, neither is a SB threat but no one is on this team. Last year I seen Tejada, Murph, Wright, Davis as the front four and to me this has not changed. If no additions are made I would chisel this into granite and hand it to Terry.
Trade Valdespin, Puello and cash to the Marlins for Justin Ruggiano.
Ruggiano is not a lead off hitter, but he is a good upstart with some solid #s.
AVG HR RBI OBP
.313 13 36 .374
This kid has potential to be a decent player and Valdespin seems to be club house cancer with his cocky attitude.
Valdy’s a hack hitter. A nice power hitting pinch hitter. Nothing more. Lead off? No way.
This. Not unless he’s improved on hitting ML hitting over the winter.
And how is Valdys hitting style any different than Kirk Nieuwenhuis or Den Dekker….Honestly Valdy has more upside than both. He has shown improvement throughout his whole career.
And I wont kill him for last year because it was his 1st go round in the pros and he played sparingly. He never received consistent playing time last year and on top of that he was asked to switch position to the Outfield. A position he has never played in his career not to mention having to pinch hit….Any major leaguer will tell you toughest thing to do is come off the bench cold and be asked to make something happen and he thrived doing that.
Before you judge what u think a prospect is give him an opportunity 1st. Not comparing the 2 but Mike trout was terrible his 1st go round with the same OBP as Valdy with a higher SO % than Valdy
Don’t realized you were related to Valdy. Sorry for offending.
And who compared him to Kirk or MDD?
I hope you are right and I hope he turns into something decent, so he can be traded for an actual OF player.
both those guys are qualified to play CF in the majors though.
Another factor with Valdespin is his maturity, or, more precisely, his lack thereof. Despite the Mets glaring holes in the OF I doubt Terry Collins or Sandy Alderson is willing to consider Valdespin for a starting OF role until he grows up and proves that he deserves an everyday role. If he were 20 or 21 you could call his attitude and actions just youthful ignorance. But he’s 24 years old, an age when most professional athletes have matured emotionally (most, but not all of course). This act of his has been a trademark since the day the Mets signed him and the fact that it hasn’t abated very much has got to be a concern. He certainly has the talent to be an everyday player, but there have to be serious questions as to whether he will ever mature enough to meet that potential.
thats a good point here
But Ike stays out late and is not coachable.
Which is exactly why he needs to be packaged up with some others for a legitimate OF or decent BP/closer type.
Disagree on Valdespin. He’s an even worse option than Cowgill. We dont have a leadoff hitter. The one we used to have plays for the Jays now and has never been replaced.
I desire to protect the completely new yu gi
oh yea cards u was questioning if baseball handles work because my very own local store solely has snowboarding card sleeves.
Their not necessarily too big or maybe too small or even anything
proper? Cheers.
Thanks for that thoughtful analysis of the situation. It certainly puts everything intro proper perspective.
To preparation h for eyes: Thanks for that thoughtful analysis of the situation. It certainly puts everything intro proper perspective.
“That shows that he is developing the patience part of his game.”
Or that the pitching in Winter League is not as good as it is in the Majors…
Most Pitchers who play in Winterball aren’t very good and are working on something to get better.
So any statistics he gets there are pretty much useless to judge him on.
But I do agree if he can cut down on the K’s that Valdespin would be a better candidate than anyone else we have to leadoff.
But He needs to win the job in Spring Training and show he is ready and has solved his issues first.
Walk rate in June-July: 1.1%
Walk rate in August-September: 9%
Seems legit
If you think Walks are the goal when you walk up to the plate…..
I’m not a big fan of Valdespin. He has a big problem with authority and marches to the beat of his own drum which never works well in the clubhouse. We just got ourselves an exciting prospect in baseball named Colin Cowgill and now is his time to shine. Oakland has a great farm system and we just grabbed one of their top prospects for a bag of donuts. I have a hunch we have a Mookie Wilson type player here and another core piece to go with Ike Davis and David Wright.
Cowgill never was one of their top prospects, and never projected to be anything more than a 4th outfielder:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/1/9/2693999/oakland-athletics-top-20-prospects-for-2012
“10) Collin Cowgill, OF, Grade C+: Acquired in Cahill deal with Arizona. Good balance of skills, should be a fine fourth outfielder.”
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2012/2612847.html
He wasn’t even rated in their top ten by BA.
There’s nothing that excites me about a 27 year old ‘prospect’ that has accomplished next to nothing in the majors.
Here is the hope I have with Valdespin…..
I hope he does well enough that he can become one of those guys we trade in a problem for problem deal that turns out as good as Hernandez did, or at least a key cog in a deal like his nearest comparator Milledge to get the next Piazza!
Other than that I don’t see much of a Met Future for him….
something like him for domonic brown
I honestly wouldnt mind Dom Brown but he has his own issues.
According to those whom follow the Phils
Pros:
-Cannon for an arm
-Patient hitter will work counts
-Athletic
-Good Speed
-Potential Power
Cons:
-Defensively takes bad routes on balls(can be fixed)
-Late on Fastballs….could be the results of allowing the ball to get to deep in the zone before loading. Or a timing thing since the Phillies switched his batting swing(hand placement)when he made it to the pro’s. He wasnt comfortable with the change so he switched back and could. Or it could just be adjusting to the ML…HE didnt have a problem hitting FB’s in the minors where he dominated and was once ranked the 4th best prospect in all of baseball by BA.
-Hasnt shown power at the Major league level. Hand Injuries could be the reason for that. Brown has suffered four injuries to his right hand. He has broken his hamate bone, which required surgery, sprained his thumb twice, and broken his pinkie finger.
I’d take a shot at Domo if he was available to the Mets which I dont see happening. hard to see Mets and Phils swing a deal.
James K.
Cowgill was never really an A’s prospect nor was he ever a top prospect….Ignorance is bliss lol….
and if you think Cowgill is the key to success….then, “I want what he’s drinking bartender”
Comparing Kirk to Spin though you have to factor in defense. Kirk is at least a good to very good OF. Spin, though is a work in progress at best.
big picture, unless someone comes in that is an obvious starter, all the spots should be up for grabs in ST
Trade Him and his Marlin’s hat as far from here as possible. His plate discipline is bad, his baseball instincts are terrible and the only thing worse than his defense is his attitude.
Alex,
Did you change your name to Hotstreak?
Cowgill should lead off vs lefties as of now and play center, Tejeda vs righties as of now although he is better suited for hitting second. Captain Kirk should play center vs righties but he strikesout to much to lead off. Obviously the Mets will probably make a move or two more in the outfield so as of now that is the most likely scenario. Unless Valdespin is your everyday second baseman then he comes in off the bench, I would have him in the minors working on his attitude more than anything else which is probably what happens.
Every spot should be up for grabs on this team….Anyone with warm blood and can play the OF should get a shot.
The 2013 Mets have pretty much nothing to lose.
While Den Dekker should spend the summer at AAA to work on cutting down K´s as his defense alone could make him a very valuable player, Nieuwenhuis & Valdespin should be on the major league roster.
Captain Kirk getting a chance fulltime in CF – maybe he´s a 2nd Nate McLouth.
Valdespin ideally serving as a “super-sub” who gets to play the corner OF spots and 2b – plus serve as an emergency option in CF & at SS. He certainly has the highest ceiling from the returning suspects. And probably the lowest floor, i.e. not a real major leaguer.
His maturity & primadonna style probably mean he won´t get too many chances. But at this point, what is to lose with playing him extensively ?
That said, Tejada or (vs. RH) Nieuwenhuis should leadoff, imho.
What about Murphy leading off? Sadly, he’s the Mets’ greatest threat to steal a base, other than Wright.