22
2012
Keith Law, Sal Fasano, FanGraphs On Travis d’Arnaud, Park Factors, Defense
An article by 
Keith Law of ESPN answered a couple of questions about the Mets new catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud during his weekly chat this week.
Q – Do you see Travis d’Arnaud continuing at catcher longterm, or do the Mets need to think of him in the outfield or first base (possibly trading or moving Ike Davis). If he can stay healthy and at catcher, the Dickey trade was a no-brainer for the Mets, but if not…
A – D’Arnaud is a catcher. He’s not Posey where the bat might play elsewhere and still make him a star.
Q – Do you agree that d’Arnaud is a “scouting” prospect, as some have recently suggested? I’ve seen his numbers from the hitter-friendly PCL, compared unfavorably to Gomes and Jeff Mathis.
A – You largely have to discard hitters’ park numbers (it’s not the PCL specifically, but certain parks, like Vegas and Albuquerque) for top position players and focus instead on performance at other levels and the scouting reports. The main problem is that non-prospects can rake there, but top prospects still face a ceiling on their overall stats. A natural .250 hitter might hit .320 in Albuquerque, but a natural .330 hitter won’t hit .400. I’ve seen d’Arnaud, and I believe he can hit and he’s coming into some power. He needs to play more than 88 games a year.
FanGraphs took the subject of park factors and d’Arnaud head on and wrote:
Self-proclaimed wet-blanket Mets fans are really worried about d’Arnaud’s statistics from his time in Las Vegas. You know how everyone dismisses statistics from the California League(CALL)? Well, the league OPS in the PCL was higher than the that of the CALL in 2012 and d’Arnaud’s home park, Cashman Field located in Las Vegas, favors right handed hitters by nearly 20%… If you were to use Greg Rybarczyk’s “Home Run Tracker” in Las Vegas you would assume that there would be a lot of “lucky” and “just enough” home runs hit that would not go out in other parks. Those home runs are going to inflate the offensive environment in Las Vegas. However, they should not detract from those hitting “No Doubt” home runs.
Of course, the follow up question is, “Is d’Arnaud hitting ‘No Doubt’ home runs?” And the retort is, “that’s why professional teams employ scouts.” Newman placed d’Arnaud’s home run total in the 18-25 range, my colleague Al Skorupa called it above average in our Mets Top 15 Prospect list which he later clarified to mean 15-20 home runs annually. When I watch d’Arnaud the first thing that stands out is his strange batting stance… If you’re hoping for Mike Piazza you’re going to be disappointed, but Al and Newman both present reasonable above average outcomes.
Sal Fasano, who managed d’Arnaud in 2011, believes he could be a 20-25 home run guy and eventually a good defender behind the plate.
“He’s really got a knack of blocking the plate. Just like any young kid, he just needs more time to hone those skills so he can become the good defender that I think he can be. Because we all know he can hit. Everybody with Toronto was always worried about his defense.”
How will d’Arnaud ultimately handle New York?
“I don’t think he’s a very boisterous guy,” Fasano said. “And I don’t think he’s a David Wright. That’s really tough to compare anybody to, because David is such a friendly face and he always looks so good in the media. Travis is a California kid, and sometimes he looks like he might not …” Fasano paused, then addressed d’Arnaud’s seemingly laid-back approach.
That was a problem Carlos Beltran often dealt with in New York. A player can sometimes make the most difficult plays so effortlessly that fans think they might be too soft and sometimes dogging it when in fact they’re not. The silent types are also frequently labeled as not being leaders.
As long as a player delivers and gives his best effort game in and game out, I couldn’t care less how boisterous or how quiet they are in the clubhouse.
Anyway, this post is really about that kick-ass GFX I designed last night… 
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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Very good reports, I’m excited about the team future team Sandy is putting together while also trying to clean up Omar’s mess. Patience Mets fans. If I can find sanity and patience so can you.
Where’s the “steenking” orange?
Ha ha ha… Honestly, whenever I tried to throw in some orange, it didn’t pop like it did with the red. I was going to petition the Mets to change their colors, but I didn’t want Mets Police to issue a warrant for my arrest.
At least come Spring Training we will finally have photos of him in Mets gear to do even better graphics with.
There’s no such thing as a perfect prospect. Guys like Trout, Strasburg Harper are one in a million. Even the best prospects come with some risk. Hopefully by the end of 2013 we’ll know what we have in TD and that it’s all good.
Hi Joe
Just like Zack Wheeler, I feel bad for d’Arnuad because of the circumstances that brought him here and that he’s going to be caught in the middle of the highly contested Sandy Alderson debate.
You were absolutely correct when you wrote “As long as a player delivers and gives his best effort game in and game out, I couldn’t care less how boisterous or how quiet they are in the clubhouse.”.
Unfortunately, those principles do not apply to a front office when it comes to saving a buck.
I actually think Wheeler will have way more pressure than d’Arnaud. Wheeler has to be the saving grace in a rotation that is losing talent and veterans. d’Arnaud should have vets all over the field and in the lineup. I see it like this, it will be a long while if ever…that d’Arnaud will be expected to be our best pitcher. Wheeler better be an ace much much sooner than that.
Hi Hank….
“I see it like this, it will be a long while if ever…that d’Arnaud will be expected to be our best pitcher. Wheeler better be an ace much much sooner than that”.
That’s assuming Harvey hasn’t taken over the ace role already…….always thinking positive here
Hi Joey D……
Are you serious??? Do you really believe that d’Arnaud’s performance will be affected by Alderson and FO debate’s amongst rabid fans on blogs?? PLEASE……give me a break here. At this juncture, d’Arnaud can still be be a bust, dependable catcher for years to come, or even an all strar at his position. But PLEASE, don’t let your feelings towards Alderson and the FO, and debates about it, lead you to believe that he’ll be negatively affected by it. Thats just rediculous!
Also, you quoted Joe with “As long as a player delivers and gives his best effort game in and game out, I couldn’t care less how boisterous or how quiet they are in the clubhouse.”….which I agree with 100%. I’ll even cite an example…..Mike Piazza had to play with the least amount of visible emotion or passion for the game then most players. He was the furthest thing from a leader. But he produced on the field. Then you go on to say:
“Unfortunately, those principles do not apply to a front office when it comes to saving a buck”.
I have no idea what you meant by that or how you applied it to this d’Arnaud thread. SMH
Hi Watch,
Both players being prospects who were traded for established players isn’t the fire they will be stepping into – it is the intense, angry divide between fans and between those in the media regarding the question of those moves and the motives behind them. They are going to be put under a microscope and no doubt going to get caught in the middle. That would put pressure on any youngster. We’ve seen where many a veteran couldn’t deal with the pressures of playing in New York – this potentially could compound it.
For all we know they might thrive from the extra pressure being put on them, however, that doesn’t take away from the fact that they are going to be subjected to that additional pressure – unlike (for example) Matt Harvey for he was not being drawn into something bigger than his own performance.
And if you don’t understand what I meant by the front office thinking in terms of the mighty dollar when it came to this particular deal, there are probably twenty or so million answers to that one. The whole legacy of Sandy Alderson so far has been based on that.
Hi Joey D…..
With all due respect to you, after reading the gist of all your posts……I just feel you’re looking for another excuse to disparage the FO with this one. Let me ask you this: do you think d’Arnaud is the first young prospect to be traded for an accomplished veteran? Its done all the time. It would be foolish for a team to refrain from building a depleted farm system for fear that the acquired young prospect won’t have the intestinal fortitude and mettle to overcome the pressures of such a trade. Thats not a valid reason to retard the plan of rebuilding.
And as far as the almighty dollar you refer to as it relates to this deal….you’re in the minority with this one Joey. This deal was heralded by most all experts.
Hi Watch,
No problem that we disagree on things – it makes for good talk.
But you did notice that I said both players are being placed in a middle of a bigger issue than of themselves. I included those like myself as being guilty of them being placed in the middle of a crossfire, even if it is not our intention to do so. Others in MMO have also expressed concern about the fan pressure of trying to produce in to prove the trades were worth it. Look at all the comments both pro and con about d’Arnaud already – notice how so many of those are directed more at Sandy one way or the other?
And we saw how coming under the microscope affected Torres and Ramirez – it was obvious they were pressing too much.
If I’m wrong on any of this, it’s due to my concern for the added pressure due to such build up.
As far as the Dickey trade, there are many in MMO who have questioned the wisdom in it, despite on paper it seeming like a good move.
All I’m saying is that:
A) I don’t think the controversy of any debating here, or at any blog sites will affect d’Arnaud or Wheeler’s performance…..you’re giving us way too much credit…..lol. I’m well aware of the types situations you’re refering to. They usually are when the acquired player is expected to be a savior, or to carry the team on their backs, and I don’t think that’s the case with either Wheeler or d’Arnaud. So don’t feel bad for them
and
B) I don’t think that this concern should ever affect a teams decision to make such a move.
I really doubt being under pressure made torres and ramirez suck, their previous team won the world series 2 years ago…
i feel like the possibility for D’arnaud and Syndergaard to keep up with the pressure and live up to the hype is way more likely than Dickey being a dominate pitcher throughout his 40′s.
They are going to be put under a microscope and no doubt going to get caught in the middle.
Only by the few Joey, that’s where we lose a lot of discussion. You average fan doesn’t even read any blogs,maybe Metsblog and maybe beat reporters. They watch ESPN and MLBN and maybe read an online paper. They know RA is gone for prospects but thanks to the things they do read know how highly ranked they were and MOST of them even understand why.
Keep in mind this “growing split” between the two groups of fans is like extremist on both sides. Most like me fall right in the middle maybe slightly off center one way or another. Sounds like politics huh?
Hi Trs,
Agreed, we cannot tell if the pulse of the average fan is represented by those of us who post on MMO and other websites along with those who call up FAN – however, even in casual conversations with those I know – just the average fan – it has been negative – not to the passion many of us have, but negative nonetheless.
But I guess the bottom line on how fans feel is reflected at the box office – and that has not been a point of pride the last two seasons. Even with that dynamic pricing allowing fans to wait and get tickets at a less expensive price hasn’t worked. And there is something to consider when free weekend tickets had to be offered in order to get a sellout on opening day.
Yes, it’s possible that no single prospect is going to be picked out as the focal point of this discontent, however, I’m sure they are also going to pick up on what is being said in the media and the internet to some degree.
So it’s just a concern of extra pressure being placed on these particular prospects, no more. Might be over nothing and that is fine with me for it’s only an apprehension But we know how cruel the usual boo-birds can be in general even if they don’t have a web browser.
I didn’t realize until reading this blog that Omar inherited this Ferrari of a team and made a mess if it. What was the mets records prior to Omar taking control? Who were all those great holdovers he inherited? That’s what I thought. We are in year two of our Nats and Rays game plan. Only 6 or 7 losing seasons before we are back. Thanks Sandy
He inherited the young and cheap David Wright and Jose Reyes. Then he was pretty much given a blank check to go out and buy whatever he wanted. That’s a pretty good situation to walk into
So there’s already doubt about d’Arnaud, ay? LMAO So we’ll be lucky if he’s the 2nd coming of Todd Hundley instead of Mike Piazza? The Mets history book on great trades is rather thin, so let’s see what happens……
Crap Pirates just traded Hanrahan to the Redsox for the player I wanted the Mets to target Jerry Sands….Supposedly its a 6player deal…boston will get 2 players Bucs 4
It sucks being a Mets fan…No hope…and I dont Believe
I feel the sake way… it’s so frustrating to be a fan of this team. It’s amazing how Yankee fans are always so calm and laid back. With the Mets, you never know what’s going to happen.
Pirates though are consistent at least with always trading off. Why did they bother to sign a few more players that are “win now” types, to turn around and trade away their closer?
With Hanrahan now in Boston, I’m hoping Bailey or Bard becomes available. Either one of them would be a huge step up closing despite their recent shortcomings.
If TD is hitting .170 after a month in the bigs, it’s gonna be fun to read this blog.. Can’t wait..
Maybe we should just keep Duda, Valdespin and Kirk in Vegas for a season….
Then we can trade each of them for a Cy Young winner to replace Dickey.
In regards to what JoeyD said (not to be confused with JoeD) what we fans think will not affect him….
Even if d”Arnaud is a bust it won’t be his fault that this deal didn’t work out what is concerning is even if he reaches the projections on him its difficult to say he was worth what we gave away until he does it for a number of years or if Dickey winds up in AAA….
It’s obvious he needs to work on his Defense and 20-25 Hrs is nothing to sneeze at but he still has to do it on the MLB field.
In the end I don’t see him being able to produce enough to justify trading Dickey away but let him prove me wrong on that.
I’ll judge the deal after I see what d’Arnaud and Dickey do from here on out…
But barring a WS win this year if we manage to fall just short of the playoffs and Dickey pitches well enough to make having him be enough to have put us over the top and get us in I don’t care what d”Arnaud or Snydergard may or may not do later on in life….
It will have COST us what it is we think we are working on for 2015 but could have had NOW!
So you do not agree that Dickeys 2012 performance was a once in a lifetime season??? really ? i mean at least outdoors? Look , spare me your negatives during the season when d´aurnaud is ( obviously ) still in the minors and dickey is having close the same season like the last , BUT IN A DOME . Dont act like a fool and not weight in that fact , oh, and the supporting cast he now has . please dont do this . He has a WAY better chance to get close to 20 wins again in toronto then he would ever had for the 2013 mets . He now plays in a dome AND most of the hitters didnt see RA´s nuckler yet , its different in the NL East wouldnt you say ? So please spare me your thoughts everytime Dickey gets a win
jeez D´anaud is under high pressure already if he ever reads such comments like yours
Nope I don’t!
Because Dickey has gotten better just about every year and ADDED to his arsenal to get guys out.
If he adds even more this year he could repeat as Cy Young considering how good of a team everyone is predicting he has to work with now.
And if he does repeat it’s going to take an awful lot from d’Arnaud to make this deal look like a good one!
he does (IF) repeat with the 2013 BLUE JAYS for god sake and not with the 2013 mets with half of his games in a dome and as a newbie to most AL hitters , you gotta be kidding me right here if you then try to hold his acclompished up like he would have easily done that with the 2013 mets and different circumstances , YOU HAVE TO BE OUT OF YOUR MIND THEN
Uhhh NEWSFLASH…..
Dickey JUST DID IT HERE!!!!!!
And if he does it in Toronto then only a nut job who roots for a GM instead of a team would believe he would NOT have done it for us!