18
2012
Jon Niese, The Improbable Ace
An article by 
Dave Cameron of FanGraphs wrote a report for ESPN Insider, and listed Jon Niese as one of three left-handed starters that is developing into an unexpected ace.
“Niese shares are a lot of similarities with a young James Shields. His average fastball velocity is around 90 mph, and to balance it out he leans heavily on his cut fastball while also working in his curve and change. If he can get his home run rate down, then Niese could be in for a breakout season sooner rather than later.”
2012 SEASON REVIEW
Although Niese fell short of 15 victories, he continued to make strides to become one of the Mets’ most reliable pitchers. Satisfied he was healthy, the Mets signed Niese to a $25.5 million contract extension with team options for 2017 and 2018. Largely unproven, the Mets were banking on Niese’s potential and at the time GM Sandy Alderson said he was the type of player the club could build around. The contract enables the Mets to avoid arbitration and Niese’s first shot at free agency, which is paramount in cost control. Niese tied his career high of 30 starts and logged 190.1 innings. Niese, like most Mets’ starters save R.A. Dickey, suffered from a lack of run support and bullpen collapses. Niese responded from a combined 4-5 in July and August to win this final three starts to finish at 13-9 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Niese had an impressive 155-49 strikeouts-to-walks ratio and worked into the seventh inning or longer in 17 appearances. He only had two starts in which he did not work at least five innings. Niese did miss a start after he was pulled for a June 3 game with a rapid heartbeat.
LOOKING AT 2013
Although Niese did not have a re-occurrence of the rapid heartbeat in the second half, he did undergo an oblation procedure at the Cleveland Clinic to alleviate the problem. It is considered minor surgery, but anything involving the heart can’t be thought of as minor. Figuring he will make a full recovery, the Mets expect him to build on 2013. Considering his age and salary, he would be in high demand on the trade market, but a pitcher of Niese’s potential is exactly what the franchise needs. Niese’s overall numbers were good and assuming he receives run support – the Mets failed to score more than three runs in 17 starts – 15 victories and 200-plus innings should be reachable. Niese would enter next year as the No. 2 starter behind Johan Santana barring any additions.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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“Niese would enter next year as the No. 3 starter assuming everything works in the positive with Johan Santana and R.A. Dickey.”
I am guessing this was written before the trade.
Dang…you mean we didn’t just get those prospects AND keep Dickey?
“In addition to throwing with his left hand, Niese shares are a lot of similarities with a young James Shields. His average fastball velocity is around 90 mph, and to balance it out he leans heavily on his cut fastball while also working in his curve and change. And, like Shields early in his career, Niese has a problem with allowing home runs, which may be the only thing keeping from being a front-line starting pitcher. From 2010 to 2012, 11.7 percent of the fly balls hit off Niese have left the yard; of the 24 NL starters who have thrown 500 or more innings over the last three years, only Bronson Arroyo has a higher HR/FB rate, and he pitches in a much more hitter-friendly ballpark.
In K/BB ratio, Niese actually grades out ahead of guys like Anibal Sanchez and Johnny Cueto, but his propensity for giving up the long ball has kept his results from matching their numbers. If he can get his home run rate down — and HR/FB rate is far less predictive than things like walk rate or strikeout rate — then Niese could be in for a breakout season sooner rather than later.”
When Niese has that Hammer Curve of his working it is something to not be missed. Really looking forward to watching Niese progress.
That curve has to be top 10 in baseball. Do they have lists like that?
Pitch f/x. He’s top ten in baseball behind guys like Zito, King Felix, Wainwright (don’t remind us) and Wandy.
Wandy huh? Was never really impressed the few times we see him against the Mets. Dont remind me about Wainwright, but glad to see Niese is in good company. Thanks, X.
I should clarify that the list I looked at was based on movement alone. If Wandy has trouble controlling it and therefore doesn’t throw it much for strikes, that’s a whole different ball of wax. But the actual pitch falls of a table.
Joe D…..
Appreciated this very positive analysis on Jon Niese. I love the guy and believe he just may be the ace of the staff some day. The break on his curveball reminds me of Koufax, and from the right side Bert Blylevin. Just keep in mind, how many years did it take Koufax to become the lights out, dominant pitcher of his time? It wasn’t overnight. Koufax’s career was a work in progress and I’m hoping Niese is following that same path.
SideNote: Cant wait for SNY to continue throwing potshots at Dickey ( the same way they did Reyes )
Mark my words….2013 will have a ton of lil darts thrown at RA
Surprised you are not saying they wont throw pot shots at Dickey because he is white. Are you evolving?
New York Mets @Mets
RHP Frank Francisco underwent surgery today to remove a bone spur from his right elbow.
I think I saw somewhere that KRod is still available.
Were they booked solid in October and November?
LOL. Good one.
Seriously though, this just came out now? I’m not thinking so. I can only assume they started some rehab and it wasn’t working.
FF as our closer next season is just scary. I had some hope he’d be better than last season as he would be healthy. Now, I guess it’s anyone’s guess.
Let me clarify that…’by coming out now’, I meant he and the doctors didn’t know before this week he had bone chips in there?
They would have required an MRI and X-Ray to determine bone spurs and usually news like that leaks out. Guess they can keep secrets when they want to. lol
Well didnt he stop pitching due to elbow soreness in September. If the recovery time is not that long, I don’t get why they didn’t do it during October.
New York Mets @Mets
Francisco is expected to begin throwing in 6 weeks and is expected to be ready for Opening Day of the 2013 season.
Well scratch KRod off that list again.
If, big if, but if Santana is finally fully recovered and Gee comes back to his former self we have a pretty decent first 4 of Santana, Niese, Gee and Harvey. With Wheeler and now Syndergaard in the future, our starting pitching is looking pretty damn solid for years to come.
Mets GM said today they have talked to some teams that may have some pitching becoming available. Could it be the Dodgers?
Really? Bet money it’s the Tigers. They’ve been talking to teams about shopping Porcello and Smyly.
Yeah, I’ve heard a lot of buzz about Porcello too. He doesn’t really blow my skirt up.
His words when asked about how they were going to fill the void left by R.A. dickey if by free agency or trade was,
“I’d say more likely free agency but we have talked to some clubs. We do know that some starting pitching may become available because a team may have signed a free agent or two and have extra pitching.”
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/audio-on-demand/mets-audio/#
Just what I thought. It’s the Tigers, because they just brought back Sanchez, so it’s either Porcello or Smyly for the last spot in the rotation. While Porcello may not “blow your skirt up” Boom, keep in mind, he’s still 23 (24 in about a week). Still time for time to turn it around. The Tigers horribly screwed with his development. However, Smyly has caught my attention watching a video of what he’s done this season. The break in his pitches reminds me of Niese and would be a good back end starter.
Porcello and Smyly have been rumored on the block on and off all Winter, so yes, it could be one of them. Too bad we traded Thole then we could of had Smyly pitching to Dopey.
LOL. I wonder what Detroit would want for someone like Smyly.
Well I’m inclined to think the Mets are more likely to look at a FA pickup at this point. The cupboard is pretty bare when it comes to trading chips at this point.
I would mention Duda, Murph, and a young minor league starter (Mincone?) as potential trade chips for Detroit since they would respectfully fill spots in DH, 2B (I know about Infante, but he wasn’t doing so hot since he was dealt to Detroit) and a young starter Detroit could shoot through the system (like they tend to do).
who would play 2B for the Mets though? and you know i’m eagerly waiting an email right? i am very curious
Easy peasy Reese Havens.
I just sent the email your way.
Why would we give up Murphy for a number 5 starter? Murphy is a .291 career hitter with occasional pop and while he is often an adventure at 2nd base he was starting to show improvement before he got hurt and I don’t see anyone else in the organization ready to step in and play 2nd.
True. Originally, I was thinking about pulling a Davey Johnson and say give the kid Flores a shot at 2nd base. If he’s blocked at 3rd base now, might as well shift him to 2nd like the Mets previously have done to Edgardo Alfonzo. They brought him up from AA (ironically at 21, Flores’s age) and he never looked back, shuffling him between 3rd, short, and 2nd.
For a bonafide starter, I’d move Murph in a package. If the starter was good enough, I’d live with Valdy at 2B.
Gah! Valdespin completely slipped my mind. Yeah, Valdy would be a decent option until Flores is ready. From what I’ve seen of Smyly, he has the makings of being a bonafide starter IMO.
Hmm. The reply button is acting a little funky so I’ll leave this one here.
I’m not ready to pencil Valdespin in as an everyday player just yet. He’s still too much of a loose cannon for my taste and he has a lot to prove about his plate discipline. With all of the pitching potential we have on the horizon I’m also a little leery of trading away positional talent.
I’m pretty resigned to the fact that we aren’t going deep into October this year but we aren’t that far away either. Trading positional players right now doesn’t seem to further the cause.
Although that pinch hit home run off Papelbon was a thing of beauty.
Dodgers have Capuano, Harang, Billingsley, and Lilly likely all competing for the 5th rotation spot behind Kershaw, Greinke, Beckett, Ryu…
I’d take Billingsley in a heartbeat. If he were to put up the kind of numbers he did last season, most specifically in the 2nd half, he’d be a huge plus. Also, he seems to be a lot better away from Dodger Stadium. Just saying.
Okay to mention Wheeler as 2013 option, however Synderella wont be at the ball before late 2014 under the most optimal conditions.
This.
Yeah, thats where the “for years to come” thing comes in. I should have been more clear.
For all the hand wringing that has been going on about the Mets they are putting together the foundation of a solid young team. Yes, there are missing pieces, there are always missing pieces, but there are also reasons to be very optimistic about where this team is headed.
Too bad we couldn’t pry away Gose who we could have used immediately as an everyday outfielder. Would have rather gotten him than a pitcher. Especially with Robles, Fulmer, Tapia, DeGrom, Montero, Mateo all on the way.
*cough* Kirk *cough* Nieuwenhuis
lol, we’ll soon find out.
Tonight’s comments are sponsored by Walt Disney.
I would expect the Mets to pick up a vet who can win some games for them. I dont know how they will go about it although it seems there is a fair bit still on the market. Clearly we are not talking #1 types but someone to eat up some innings.
Zambrano, if his attitude doesnt suck, seems like a good risk. He always was an inning eater and could win the tough games. The flip side is he can be a nightmare in the clubhouse and hasnt pitched well in a couple of years.
Pass on Zambrano. Hasn’t been able to pitch 200+ innings since 2007, 150+ since 2009.
I was thinking Harang as soon as I saw Dickey gone.
Anthony Reiber of Newsday said today that the Mets infield of Wright,Murphy,Tejeda,&Davis has a potential stellar of Major league hitters. So why trade Murphy
Put Mejia at #5 and use all your starters on 5 days rest. 2 have health issues (Santana and Gee). 2 are rookies (Harvey and Mejia) and Niese did very well on 5 days rest in the 2nd half of last season.
I rather have those starters go deeper into the game then relievers like Acosta take the 7th.
For now,Neise is a solid #3 guy,with progression,he could become the ace we need,but I think it’s unfair to Jon to throw pressure on him by saying he’ll be an ace at this point in his career. Anyway,along the line,I think Harvey will become a young ace on this staff in 2-3 years.