20
2012
ESPN: Mets Slated For Most Losses In Majors For 2013
An article by Craig Lerner
Jayson Stark of ESPN, spoke with one of his colleagues Dan Szymborski, and polled some MLB executives and Vegas odds makers, to determine which five teams have most improved the most this offseason as well which five teams have least improved.
The consensus is that the Mets could tie with the Marlins for the most losses during the 2013 season:
As for what they had to say regarding the Mets’ offseason thus far, there is this:
Let’s just say there was massive competition for the final spot on this list. Among the teams that got multiple votes: the Rockies, Brewers, Mariners and Yankees. But the Mets sneaked in here, even though they got rave reviews for the return they got in the R.A. Dickey deal.
“If you’re asking are they going to be improved down the road, I’d say yes,” said one AL executive. “But if you’re asking are they improved next year, the answer is obviously no. I mean, you’ve lost your No. 1 starter, a guy who won the Cy Young Award. The bullpen looks kind of shaky right now. They haven’t re-signed Scott Hairston, so what’s their outfield? And I’ll go back to this: You’re taking away your No. 1 [starter], a guy who really impacts your club. That’s a big hit.”
Maybe, in seven weeks, we’ll have a different feeling about all of this. But that’s a discussion for another day. For now, that’ll do it for our offseason halftime show. Now back to the hot-stove action!
Not exactly the rave review one would want to see, but a totally understandable stance in the context of the 2013 season.
Incidentally, the Toronto Blue Jays was the consensus choice for the most improved team this offseason.
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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Any idea what last year’s list looked like?
In February of 2012, Jayson Stark had the Marlins tied with the Nats as the most improved team in the National League.
How did that work out?
well thats the vegas odds from 12.20.2012 , this projection will change at least every 10 days . No secret the mets are a “logical” 4th place , odds are the opinion of the majority , it changes as quick as you can look. some addition or a solid start, the majority of people will think the mets maybe get 78 wins, and so will vegas, so as of 12.20.2012 , these experts odds and projections are as good as any of ours
But at least we still have David Wright !
Im sure having less than 80 wins in a NY market wont affect attendance so long as FranchiseFace is still here !!!
or as long as jessup spews out every Alderson lie a thousand times over.
It’s done son, move on.
96 losses is as close to the 95 losses I figured them for since they dismantled the top of the rotation. Glad to see it was actual MLB execs being polled and not MMO posters who would have reversed the numbers. lol
I am not going to argue that the Mets won’t be that bad but Houston, Minnesota, Colorado and all of Chicago are going to be fighting in this zone as well.
Zips was used by Szymborski last year.This is the same projection system that pegged RA Dickey at 11-8 3.77 ERA with 114 strikeouts last year.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/spring2012/story/_/id/7581486/mlb-spring-preview-offseason-review
2012 version, Oakland finishes 3rd in AL behind Baltimore. #NailedIt
LOL, so you mean these guys are just talking heads and their list are most likely garbage?
And that is why they play the games boys and girls. There is 162 of them and they all count.
Marlins should lose more than us.
So some how accoridng to ESPN’s MLB execuiteve poll the Astros are going to go from winning 55 games in the NL Centra to 78 or more with a move to the AL West. That’s strange don’t you think?
Because the Cubs and Pirates offer stiffer competition than the Rangers and Angels?
I’m totally sure that a division where 90 wins gets you third place will be a cake walk for a team that finished dead last in a division with 2 100+ loss teams.
the 2013 new york mets will not win any less then 76 games, will not happen guys
ESPN used computer analysis to come to those conclusions which says something about the use of advanced stats – what, I’m not sure of.
If the data analysis is correct, does that mean it was wrong when Sandy started applying it to the Mets two years ago?
Reminds me of Spock’s recitation of the Liar’s Paradox (“Everything I say is a lie. I am lying.” Am I a liar or not?) that finally incapacitated Norman and, with him, the remainder of the androids.
“and polled some MLB executives and Vegas odds makers,”
The least you can do is read the post.
Hi Donal,
I was referring specifically to that computer projection. There were three separate perspectives and the results of each were independent of the other, not a combination:
1) The computer projection
2) The Vegas view
3) How baseball executives see it
By not writing about numbers two and three does not mean I did not read the post – it only means I was not addressing them, again being that each was dealt with separately by the author.
The Mets future all comes down to how good the young pitching will be and how quickly.
Matt Harvey, Zach Wheeler and to a lesser degree Jenry Mejia, Jeurys Familia, Josh Edgin, Colin McHugh, Darin Gorski and to an even lesser degree Robert Carson and Elvin Ramirez could see a lot of action for the 2013 Mets. They are a black box.
Matt Harvey could go 195 IP over 31 starts and go 15-7 with a 2.88 ERA and almost replace Dickey himself. Zach Wheeler could do what Harvey did last year, plus make up for the IP lacks behind Dickey and the Mets´ rotation suddenly is as good as in 2012 – and better if Johan Santana and Dillon Gee both make more than 25 starts each and Jon Niese repeats his strong 2012 showing. In that case .500 seems like a very realistic projection with an even moderately improved bullpen (with Edgin, Familia and others for a full season).
At the same time, Harvey could get hit by the sophmore jinx and Wheeler needs more time at AAA than planned and they pitch more like Isringhausen & Wilson did in 1995. In that case, 95+ losses seems quite realistic as well.
Fact is, except for the Infield (with the exception of Ike Davis), Niese, Gee (if healthy !) and Parnell, the Mets have a lot of unknowns in the equasion. Which could turn out good or bad. Or somewhere in between.
And, of course, a lot also depends on what moves are being made between now & April 1st.
Let´s say the Mets sign Francisco Liriano or re-sign Chris Young or re-acquire Chris Capuano for a 2nd tier prospect, re-sign Scott Hairston, sign Jose Valverde or Francisco Rodriguez and sign Tom Gorzelanny or another veteran lefty as free agents for a combined 18 to 20 million $ for 2013, i.e. most of the amount of money saved on Bay & Wright in terms of cash flow saved by deferring to future years, suddenly the outlook isn´t nearly as bleak any more. Not saying that something like that will happen – but there´s a lot of time to improve the roster short term without hurting the longterm plan.
It doesn´t make sense to trade key young players or prospects right now or sign some of the bigger free agents – say Kyle Lohse or Michael Bourn.
But shopping in the free agent outlet center could help
you just almost covered it all, good job, i had fun reading this, lets hope it turns out to be a .500 season, or near that with some obvious improvement from the young staff, i´ll take that, for 2013 ill take anything other then a complete disaster , and in 2014 i wanna see results
good pitching is one critical component, however the mets will go no where until they stress DEFENSE from Rookie Ball all the way to the majors.
We had the worst or one of the worst defenses in the majors in 2011 + 2012 + 2009. Unless u have 5 Nolan Ryans, your great pitching is NEGATED by bad defense.
True.
The catching defense will be improved with Buck replacing Thole and eventually D´Arnaud joining.
Daniel Murphy was much-improved at 2b over the 2nd half – albeit from “terrible” to fair (about neutral UZR in 2nd half).
The outfield remains to be seen. Cowgill should be an improvement over Bay. Duda will be terrible regardless of where he plays – but possibly less worse in LF than in RF. Other than that, I have no idea how is going to be in RF – Baxter ? Valdespin ? Nieuwenhuis with someone else in CF ?
Going forward, the outfield seems like the easiest position to make major improvements for this team – both offensively and defensively. This off-season probably isn´t the time for any bold moves. However, it doesn´t hurt to at least try.
The Braves Circa, 1988 the definition of Rebuilding
They had Dale Murphy winding down career and Ron Gant getting started.
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teamstats/roster.php?y=1988&t=ATL
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/1988.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/1988.shtml
Smoltz 2-7
Glavine 7-17
YES, We will suck BIG TIME this coming season….But I doubt the Marlins and Astros finish with better records…..and thats not saying much but its reality.
If youre a Mets fan you take this with a grain of salt, but what you should acknowledge is the fact that we havent IMPROVED this ball club.
Yes we have pieces for the future but they are not guaranteed…..anything can happen injury or they can be busts. Rebuilding doesnt mean collect draft picks and prospects and wait. Thats the formula that the Royals,Pirates used for years and they dont have anyhing to show for it but terrible teams. And lately with the TV money blitz they have started to add talent to go with their prospects. They actually sign established Vets/PRO’s now, who can groom these prospects when they come up. Making their transition to the big leagues that much easier on them.
You still need to make savvy major league acquisitions…some vets, pro’s
When David Wright was came up in 2004 he had veteran guys like Zeile, Piazza, Cliff Floyd, Mike Cameron,Leiter,Glavine….So there was no pressure on him to perform or try and carry a team…Same goes for Harper and Trout there is no pressure on them to perform out of the gate and be depended on as rookies….Arod had Griffey,Edgar Martinez,TIno Martinez,Luis Sojo, even Vince Coleman
lol…hehehe….
My Point is the worst thing you can do to prospects is to have them come up and have to depend on them. And forced to perform to fans expectations….a la Generation K
I dont want to go into another season with Sandy saying IF Duda, Valdespin,nieuwenhuis….none of those guys have a full season under there belts why are we depending on them to protect Wright and Ike Davis in the lineup??? Its ridiculous…
And no i dont want Alderson to spend big money on big money free agents but i would like to see him acquire some solid Pro’s/Vets a .280 15HR 65RBI major leaguer is perfect….whenever youredependent on 2 or more rookies in your everyday lineup youre playing with fire.
you should be right , though a “possibility” that THIS roster can improve is given, for sure i would like a vet or 2 on the team, no question
Saying u need good pitching/offense while ignoring defense is like saying u need good linebackers and quarterbacks but neglect the offensive/defensive line.
u can have great pitching, but bad defense will always bring down a club
u can have a great QB/RB/WR, but a bad offensive line will negate them.
That wasn’t a list of the teams projected to have the most or fewest wins in 2013, but a list of the teams with the most and worst projected *improvement* over the winter. Can’t speak for the execs, but I still have the Astros by far the worst, at 53 wins – and Jayson said he’d take the under even on that!
How can you predict wins or who had the most improvement when the off season isn’t even over and a couple big name free agents are still available?
People just filling space.
Projections change, obviously. The actual projected amount in your 401k will likely change wildly over decades, but that doesn’t mean you hold off seeing where it’s at and what you need to plan for until you turn 59.
The holiday period is the biggest lull in the busy part of the offseason. It strikes me as a perfectly reasonable spot to review what’s happened so far.
Well that does it — why even play the games? Who needs a baseball season? Just give the crowns to the Angels and Dodgers and move on to Hot Stove 2013. Afterall, there is nothing beyond fantasy baseball. BTW – The As didn’t make the playoffs last year. I predicted that they wouldn’t and they didn’t.
that is true. Look how it worked out giving the top spots in the division to the Phils and marlins this past season.
This article isn’t showing which teams will have the most losses. Rather, it’s showing which teams projected wins have changed the most between the end of the season and now. The Mets were projected at 72 wins before the offseason and are now projected at 66 wins. Who’s to say that the projection for some other teams aren’t lower than 66 but aren’t on this list because they didn’t change as much as the top 5 did. Misleading headline to this entry.
In fact, in the article, it specifically says, “Houston Astros – Fortunately for the Astros, it’s hard to argue they’ve gotten significantly worse. Heck, they didn’t even make Szymborski’s least-improved list — but only because their projected win total (now set at 53) was so low to start with.” Boom. Astros are “predicted” to have the most losses in the majors, but were not on that list because their projection hasn’t changed much between the end of the season and now.
Hi Alex,
I just hope Houston is good enough not to challenge our .250 winning percentage from 1962. There are some records, even bad ones, that one wants to hold onto dearly.
But being in that AL West – boy that is going to be brutal for them. Look for Seattle to possibly finish at .500 with 18 games against the team once known as the Colt -45s.
yes!! these guys dont know nothing if it was that easy to predict then baseball wouldnt be the great game that it is espn can kiss my arce.
i really think the more they put us down the better things are. LETS GO METS!!!
As Bob Dylan said, ‘The times, they are a-changin’.
Just 3-4 years ago, we were all here debating/discussing if we could knock off the Phiilles.
Now, 3 years into the Alderson regime, we’re comparing ourselves to the Cubs, debating who will have more losses.
It is hard to disagree with that assessment right now, but there is still a long way to go before the first pitch on opening day. This discussion is premature.
“You play to win the game. Hello? YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME.”
-Herm Edwards
Yawn. I could care less about predictions/projections from execs, “experts”, fans, and the like.
mets are headed for disairter no fans showing up for 2013 we are not kc pirates brewers etc