20
2012
Davidoff Takes Logic Out Of Hall of Fame Voting
An article by 
Ken Davidoff has spent the last week or so getting attention, not for the quality of his work but for the shock value of his work.
Most recently, Davidoff published his Hall of Fame ballot. Davidoff goes through every player in detail and does an excellent job at that. Davidoff also does an excellent job at proving why he should not be voting for the Hall of Fame.
In my honest opinion, I believe he is leaving Mike Piazza off his ballot to get people to talk about his ballot rather than uphold the value of the Hall of Fame. I will give a few examples of why I believe this to be true.
Davidoff uses four statistics to measure a players Hall of Fame credentials. To quote,
I looked at every candidate on this ballot and ranked him according to both WARs, Baseball-Reference’s WAR7 (which takes a candidate’s best seven seasons by WAR, to consider a player’s peak) and Jaffe’s JAWS. I rewarded a player one point for finishing first in a column, two points for second, etc. — and then ranked them by lowest score to highest.
He justified this method because according to him, “these statistics have no emotions”. This to me is flawed because the statistics he used also do not have a brain.
During the era in which Mike Piazza played, two catchers dominated the position. Himself and Pudge Rodriguez. How Piazza compares to others on a ballot makes no sense. In fact, Davidoff admitted he takes the position into account when he justified Alan Trammell getting into the Hall of Fame.
Davidoff says:
From 1980 to 1993, an impressive run for such a challenging position, Trammell was as good as any shortstop in the game.
So clearly at times, Davidoff chose to take the position into account and also how that player compared to the players in his era at said position. But why did he choose not to do that for Mike Piazza? Why did he shift gears and use a different standard?
Why does Trammell get to use players like Tony Fernandez, Scott Fletcher, and Gary Templeton to improve his candidacy by showing how much better he might have been against players at his position, but then the same methodology isn’t used for Mike Piazza in comparison to his contemporaries Jorge Posada, Jason Kendall, Javy Lopez, and Charles Johnson?
Davidoff justifies leaving Piazza out of the Hall of Fame by using the process explained above:
Using this process, Piazza placed 14th on my list of candidates
So when it comes to Mike Piazza’s candidacy, Davidoff is choosing to compare him to a player like Edgar Martinez (we’ll get to that). That is as useless as comparing a pitcher’s credentials to an infielder.
Taking Davidoff’s own system (which is flawed) I looked at who I consider the best catchers of all time (warning: I left Campanella off because Davidoff’s formula puts an emphasis on longevity).
So I looked at, Bench, Berra, Carter, Fisk, and then added Pudge and Piazza. I also threw in Jorge Posada who would probably rank third among catchers during the era Piazza played, just to see how far ahead Piazza is.
Johnny Bench would finish first with 8 points, followed by Gary Carter with 10, then Pudge with 14, Piazza & Fisk would be tied with 16, then Berra with 21 and Posada with 27.
So Davidoff is not putting in a top 5 catcher in the history of the game, but he’s putting in Alan Trammell because of how he compares to the SS’s of his era?
Trammell using Davidoff’s own formula was tied for the 2nd best SS of his era with Ozzie Smith behind Cal Ripken Jr. by a margin of 6 points (Ripken 5, Trammell/Smith 11, Larkin 13).
Piazza, using Davidoff’s formula finishes 2 points behind Pudge Rodriguez to finish as the 2nd best catcher of his era by a margin of 11 points over Posada.
Yet, Trammell being “as good as any SS in the game,” gets him in, but Piazza doing the same behind the plate and posting impressive offensive numbers, does not?
Then there is Edgar Martinez. Davidoff uses players like Martinez to keep Piazza off his ballot because of how they rank against one another using his formula.
Davidoff justifies Edgar Martinez in the Hall of Fame by saying,
Martinez was such a good offensive player, putting together a .933 OPS and 147 OPS+ over 18 seasons.
Martinez (whom I think is a legitimate contender) didn’t have to play the field for the final 10 years of his career.
Prior to becoming a full-time DH, Martinez’ OPS was .851 and his OPS+ was 133. Piazza played the most taxing position on a player’s body and while doing so posted an OPS of .931 and an OPS+ of 145 (this excludes his final year in Oakland when he was only a DH).
Where would Piazza’s offensive numbers have gone had he not played the field since 1998? So Davidoff is rewarding Martinez for not being good enough to play the field, but penalizing Piazza for being a catcher in 1,602 starts.
These facts alone prove the flaw in Davidoff’s method and also prove why using four statistical measures that have “no emotion,” is greatly flawed.
I believe Davidoff’s goal was to find a way to leave Mike Piazza off his ballot.
To weigh a player’s credentials versus an entire ballot and use four statistics that do not consider the position played is an enormous sign of willful ignorance.
Thoughts from Joe D.
To add to Mike’s well pointed and articulated argument against Davidoff’s ballot, let me add this.
To use some arbitrary statistics alone as your sole criteria in determining a players candidacy for the Hall of Fame, seems like a total jab at the sanctity and integrity of the process.
The reason the writers of the BBWAA get to select those players who are enshrined into Cooperstown is because it was assumed that they watched these players and saw them perform among their piers. They had the luxury of being paid to cover the candidates, and compare them to players in their own era or draw comparisons to former greats.
The measuring sticks that Davidoff uses aren’t indicative of the stats we use to measure which players were the greatest batters, or home run hitters , or base stealers. Instead he uses advanced metrics that are just flawed “catch-all” statistics that even the creators themselves can’t agree as to their computation or legitimacy in determining a player’s overall value.
If Mike Piazza does get selected into the Hall of Fame, baseball fans everywhere will remember that he hit the most home runs ever as a catcher and not because his JAWS and WAR7 ranked him with the immortals like Johnny Bench and Gary Carter.
If we wanted to use solely a statistical barometer to select players to the Hall of Fame, why have a vote at all?
Why not just develop the threshold for inclusion and get rid of the BBWAA and all their flaws altogether?
Too many writers use the ballot as a means to promote themselves rather than honoring the system and the institution they are supposed to protect and represent.
I have serious concerns about Ken Davidoff’s ballot, and wonder if he didn’t in fact use it to shamelessly promote himself – an act he accused R.A. Dickey of doing only days prior.
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
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I like Davidoff he will go out of his way to explain his positions if you write him, but he has not covered himself in glory this week that’s for sure.
Here is Piazza’s analysis straight from the JAWS mouth.
http://mlb.si.com/2012/12/14/jaws-and-the-2013-hall-of-fame-ballot-mike-piazza/
If you don’t want to read then (but you should it’s a great article), then at least read this one quote from it: “Factoring in playing time and productivity, Piazza has a very strong claim as the best-hitting catcher of all time.”
Jessep you are spot on that his article was just to get the clicks. If at his McGriff reasoning, he omitted him because his stats were weak as a first baseman in that era. I asked him on Twitter if he used position scarcity when judging Piazza and he said he did.
Mr. JAWS even tweeted Davidoff about it: @jay_jaffe – @KenDavidoff unless I missed something, your methodology seems to penalize Piazza for losing playing time like all catchers inevitably do
And as Joe stated above, it is not just about their statistics, and it shouldn’t be just about their statistics. And if it was then Davidoff would of had no choice to vote him in.
He just wants attention in this slow, off season, holiday time cause no is paying attention while getting ready for Christmas so only way to have people talk about you, get on TV, Radio shows is to be controversial and then try to justify metrics that shouldn’t apply to these candidates.
As stated you need to have seen them play; maybe he was watching Yankees run during 90′s and didn’t have time for Mets and just read the next day’s box score? Just saying.
Wow, 1st taking shot at RA, class person, then at next possible Met’s HOF inductee.
Shame on you KD.
Rosenthal’s a shill for his own overinflated ego. That says it all!
Lastly, look MMO is talking about him!
“Relative to the excellence of his hitting, even the worst of those estimates doesn’t cost him a lot. Despite his defense, Piazza is tied with Yogi Berra for fifth all-time in career WAR and JAWS among catchers behind Bench, Gary Carter, Ivan Rodriguez and Carlton Fisk; all of those players played in at least 208 more games. Piazza’s peak WAR of 40.7 ranks third behind only Carter (46.5) and Bench (45.9), more than a win per year above the standard (32.0). That’s not a borderline Hall of Famer, that’s an inner circle one.”
This taken from an article using JAWs on the MLB section of SI.
The other thing I failed to mention due to space is… everyone concedes (maybe except me) that Biggio is a hall of famer.
Biggio LEFT the catcher position after almost 500 games behind the dish. His numbers as a catcher only further prove just how hard it is to maintain offensive excellence while playing the position.
483 Games, 24HR, 153RBI .272 average, .710 OPS 104OPS+ was Biggio’s career behind the plate. He’s a shoe in for the hall I am sure – but that should only further show people just how impressive Piazza’s #s are
You carved him up like a Christmas Turkey, good!
This, coming after the asinine pieces on Dickey… Alright, let’s see what we’ve got here.
Davidoff himself claims that he has no care in the world towards the usage of PEDs… and that was literally the ONLY argument against Mike Piazza. And it was an allegation, nothing was proven…
Besides my other little quibbles with him, like what might be a good debate over Fred McGriff… Here’s something I find interesting.
“I’m not a big “magic numbers” guy, particularly not with hits or home runs; to me, you’re best defined by how you match up against your contemporaries.” This taken from his argument for Biggio…and it is well known and proven that Piazza is one of the top catchers in history. Top 5 for sure, I’d debate him up to top 2, even.
I feel like this whole piece screams hypocrisy, and kudos to you Jessep, for tackling it. Damn good case.
Well if I was a Jury Member, I could see his reasons for not taking PEDs into account for players who had been suspected of taking them before testing and rules were set to stop them….
I can make a fair and decent argument to support that by stating if 90% of the league was using at the time you can hardly call it cheating, more like keeping up with the joneses…
And if there were not really any rules specifically banning them (debatable as the using a foreign substance for advantage could be extended to include PEDs) it’s difficult to say they broke any rules since they did not specifically exist at the time.
Guys who got caught after rules and testing were in place would be banned from the ballot and a seperate wing in the Hall for guys from that era could be made with a big plaque that read “Players inducted here all played in the Steroid Era before testing was done!”
Difficult to say a guy broke a rule that didn’t exist…But that said…
I just don’t see how Piazza gets a no after that?
On a lighter note…
“And I think the best way to determine a Hall of Fame ballot is without emotions.”
“This marks my seventh year as a Hall of Fame voter, and I’d rank this ballot as my most fun. Not heart-wrenching. Not sleep-losing. Not difficult. Fun.”
Admitting to having fun means Davidoff had emotions during this ballot…so by twisting his own words and using my weird logic, I can prove that Ken himself basically said he did not vote in the best way possible. Lol.
“If we wanted to use solely a statistical barometer to select players to the Hall of Fame, why have a vote at all?
Why not just develop the threshold for inclusion and get rid of the BBWAA and all their flaws altogether?”
You’re being facetious, aren’t you?
With a .308 lifetime batting average–pretty damn good for anyone–pretty darn GREAT for a catcher–he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. Everything else is just gravy. The guy’s an idiot.
Jessep,
All you had to do to prove Davidoff is an idiot and doesnt deserve a vote was to mention that he chose Kenny Lofton over Mike Piazza….Which is retarded….Lofton was a hell of a player but not even in the same atmosphere as Mike Piazza
I chose to use better Hall of Fame arguments to enhance my case for Piazza.
I would vote for Edgar and I don’t think Trammell is the worst HoF argument. I get what he is trying to do with Lofton, but Lofton doesn’t sniff the HoF until/unless Raines does. Not together.
Why not just let the Writers NOMINATE people to the Hall and then let the current members of the Hall vote on who actually gets in?
And if someone who used PEDs gets exposed simply throw them out and strip them of the honor?
Nice job, jessep. I don’t understand what happened to Davidoff. He used to be a respectable writer when he worked at Newsday. He gets to the NY Post and then — poof! — all integrity goes out the window. Coincidence? Perhaps not.
Well, I’ll be the dissenting voice. I didn’t agree with some of Davidoff’s conclusions and his method seems facile and poorly defended.
But think of how many HOF voters don’t bother to explain themselves, and may well be engaging in a reasoning process even less defensible than Davidoff’s. At least he makes himself accountable — as he did when responding to critics of his article on Dickey, by the way. Yet a lot of people here start questioning his motivations and attacking his good faith.
And what sportswriter doesn’t want attention paid to his writing? The guy is required to put out copy, even if it’s a slow news day.
A lot of the arguments here against Davidoff’s conclusions seem persuasive. What I don’t understand is the vitriol and assaults on character. Attack the reasoning, not the reasoner.
“Attack the reasoning, not the reasoner.”
Oh good luck with that around here….
99% of the arguments (and Bannings) around here are due to that practice!
every award voted on by people is useless.
the guy should use stats, but he is using them wrong. piazza is a first ballot guy, no question.
Good job by Jessup here.
And I may be the only one with this opinion but I believe Davidoff just went way out of his way to justify the real reason he didn’t vote for Piazza…which is he believes he doesn’t deserve to get into the HOF on the first vote/eligible year. Especially since he goes on to say he’ll probably be voting for him next year.
That’s twice this week Davidoff went way out of his way to explain his thought process and twice this week – IMO – he failed to do so.
Jessup – good work.
Piazza deserves to be a hall of famer in his first year of eligability.
You can use statistics to argue anything – with Piazza people should just use their memory.