6
2012
Another View Of Why The Mets Are Unlikely To Trade R.A. Dickey
An article by Barry Duchan
Readers of this blog and all of the other Mets-related sites have been speculating on what kind of return would make it worthwhile for the Mets to trade RA Dickey at the peak of his value. Some suggest one “super-prospect”. Others suggest a package. I had my own thoughts that Dickey should bring back the kind of almost-major-leaguers-but still-prospects such as the Padres got for Mat Latos. But the more I think about it, I’m convinced the Mets won’t make a deal. Here’s why.
Those of us who read the posts on this site every day or in many cases, multiple times a day, are not the typical Mets fan. Think about it. In any office or group situation, you’ll have some people who have no interest in baseball at all, and then you’ll have those who say they are baseball fans. Of those who claim to be Mets fans, there are probably a handful who, like us, think they know about almost every major league player or potential major leaguer who might help the Mets. Then there are those who are fairly knowledgeable about baseball, but have never heard names like Wilmer Flores or Jeurys Familia, not to mention Wil Myers or Travis d’Arnaud. Another group could probably only name about ten or so, players on the Mets, if that, but certainly know the names R.A. Dickey and David Wright and most of the “prominent” players on other teams.
How would those last two groups of fans react to a trade of R.A. Dickey for a player or players they’ve never heard of? To most of us, that shouldn’t be Alderson’s primary concern, but unfortunately, I think it is definitely one of them. Just recently, the Mets sent out a fan survey asking which promotions would have the most appeal. I’d think that most readers of this site had little if any interest in that kind of survey and would have preferred a survey that asked “what is most likely to get you excited about the upcoming Mets season” with choices such as “signing RA Dickey to a long-term deal”, “Trading Dickey for some top prospects” or the likely most popular choice “Hearing that the Wilpons are putting the team up for sale”.
Trade Dickey, don’t trade Dickey, just show me that the Mets are making an effort to put a contending team on the field and I’ll be satisfied. So far, nothing’s happening to make the team better and I think ALL Mets fans can agree on that.
About the Author: Barry Duchan
I've been following the Mets since 1962. Have to admit I was a Yankee fan as a kid, but I found it to be so much more interesting to see how a young team could build itself up rather than following a team where the season didn't really begin until October. I remember them all - Casey, Marv, ChooChoo, Don Bosch, The Stork, etc. As the years went on, I became more and more of a Mets fan, and a Yankee hater once Steinbrenner and Billy Martin entered the picture. After retiring, I relocated with my family from Long Island to Chapel Hill, NC in 2005. I spend a lot of my time now checking out all the various Mets blogs. Fortunately, I still get to watch almost all of the Mets games (except those that are blacked out here).
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In the blog world everybody is an expert GM. When your team finishes 4th four times in a row you want a makeover to some extent. The days of team loyalty to players ended when players left for greener pastures. NY is a sophisticated sports town. Winning is everything.
Speaking of which…..what the Yankees are doing – or more to the point not doing – is almost unprecedented this off season so far. Articles are saying Cashman is getting frustrated at the budget figures the Steinbrenner sons are holding him to. It was well documented that they were trying to get that payroll down to $189 MIL for 2014. Now it appears they’re trying to stay under that number for 2013.
Well not quite, they did offer Youk a one year 12M deal but I wonder if that is just an offer to make an offer, what many accuse our GM of doing.
I imagine teams also have several options for Starting Pitching at this point in the offseason. Once January rolls around that may change and Dickeys trade value may go up.
Dickeys value went up yesterday when joe blanton got a 2 year 15 mil deal from the angels comi ng off a year where his era was almost 5 !!!
Which is why Dickey is so worth 26 MIL for two years.
That’s just a stupid deal for the Angels. Seriously, Blanton?
Speaking of insane money spending, have you taken a serious look at Grienke’s numbers since is CY. He’s a mid to high 3 ERA pitcher. This is why I am so opposed to trading Niese. Good pitching costs a freaking ton right now. Heck even mediocre pitching is stupid expensive.
Agreed.
I should have also put in that Niese has done it as a kid in NY. Grienke would most likely have to wear brown pants pitching in NY.
I really think that baseball is in a transition faze from big hitting back to something like the late 80′s. I haven’t flushed out the particulars yet but looking at the Giants it was good pitching and a ton of mid tier position players. The days of ALL-Star line-ups I think are gone. The pool is shrinking and teams like ours need to get ahead of it. Keep Niese and go out and grab some decent outfield bats. Most would be surprised at the outcome.
Do we have any idea at all how much $ Dickey is asking for? Dickey is making 5 Million in 2013 so… Dickey is 38 yrs old; throws a finicky pitch that by it’s nature is unpredictable. Dickey has to be smart here if he insists on a 3-yr deal I say trade him for the best you can get.
However if Dickey is willing to allow his value to be judged not as that of a pitcher coming off a cy young 20 win season but as a very good knuckle-ball pitcher with the potential to win 15 games over the next 3 years then sign him to a 3-yr 30 million deal. The question is, are the Wilpons willing to pay 10 million dollars a year to a 15 game winner?
I’ve read anywhere from 26 – 29 MIL for the two years.
I just can’t see Dickey having the same kind of year again. 12-15 wins sure, but another 20 game winning season? I don’t know… certainly if I were the Mets I wouldn’t exceed an offer of 3yr-24 million or 2 yr-18.5 million. If I were Dickey I would take the 24 million and be set for life…
But WTF Joe Blanton got paid!!!! soo…… who the heck knows what the market is for a 38 yr. old cy young 20 game winning knuckle ball pitcher is..?? I certainly don’t.
Yeah, the control and strikeout rates that he had last year were phenomenal no one can expect that level. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 15-18 wins for sure. Keep in mind that not only was he that dominant, he goes deep in the game and provides quality starts almost every time.
You forget though, he got 20 Wins on a team that was under .500…
27% of our Win column was when Dickey was Pitching.
4 of his 6 losses came after August when the Offense abandoned us and in 3 of them they scored just one run.
With a better team and offense he could be flirting with 20 wins even if he loses 4 or 5 wins of performance he had last year…
I disagree the reason they won’t trade him is because they will not get what he;s worth(in their minds or ours)If that’s the case they should keep him, he will be easier to trade in July if he’s signed and doing well, guys don’t win 20 games on 70 win teams by accident
With the new CBA rules though, I’m not sure how much easier it will be to trade him in July.
Unless the team acquiring him offers him arbitration, they won’t get any draft picks if he walks.
So knowing that going in, wouldn’t that lessen what we’d get back?
Unless you’re Sabean…..
The acquiring team will get nothing regardless unless he starts the year with that team, arbitration or not based on my understanding. Which is why no doubt his value should be the highest in a couple of weeks after ZG has signed. That being said, Beltran was a dead pickup as well and we still got Wheeler.
Ah…didn’t realize they would get nothing, even if they offered arbitration.
So based on that, his worth will go down once the season starts, unless we’ve signed him for 2 more years, then deal him in a trade in July.
Yeah, I think Dickey wanted some type of no trade assurance before signing the deal according to reports.
Dickey is an odd case, he is arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball right now. He is 38 years old and only has two and a half years of work to show what he has done. However, this work compares well with the likes of Grienke and other top of the rotation guys. If a team is not willing to trade a top prospect for him then it is not worth it to trade him. Just look at the money handed out to guys who perform to the same level. Right now the Mets would not be able to sign any of these guys. Re-sign Dickey and compete. IF Sandy is a Moneyball GM as he has been dubbed than Dickey is the best moneyball pitcher in the ML’s.
You know I think all this trade talk should have died the second they extended Wright because if they think he is worth having and that they could be contending in the next few years once the bad payroll comes off the books then the same feeling should be compelling them to keep Dickey in the rotation as well.
Sure they might solve some other problem if they get what they have been insisting on in a trade…
But what will happen if those players they get actually do make us competitive?
Answer: Sell the farm or give out another Monster FA contract (that could backfire) to go buy more pitching cause they think they are close enough!
I say the best thing they could do is keep Dickey hold onto Wheeler as an untouchable and be willing to trade all the rest to get the OF they seem to need.
If that means a Flores, Mejia, Familia and Nimmo in a Package then so be it!
I think people need to get off the notion that any kid we trade for MUST be a top prospect, that any OF we get MUST be a potential ROY.
Get your Power RH OF bat in FA, Trade some kids for a decent CF (MLB or Kid) who can possibly hit leadoff and thats honestly enough for now.
Forget the catcher there is nothing worth trading for there just some guy you want to replace a little less than Thole…
As for the Pen well if you don’t trade Familia or Mejia they are your internal options and once Wheeler comes up you can always turn Santana into a reliever where he can pitch fewer innings and greatly improve what we have out there.
Think the Mets got more out of the the money they have paid Johan or RA ? Granted we all know Johan was one of the best Pitchers in the game but even Johans’ 3 best years only netted 1 more win than RA and has been on a steady decline .It is not unreasonable to think to get 40-45 wins over the next 3 years out of RA . Not to mention the many different looks the Mets starting pitching can bring . Gonna be real tough RA/Harvey/Niese/ Wheeler /Johan .
Gotta keep RA My 2 cents
Your whole article is based on a guess that Alderson is worried about the fans’ reaction to a trade. But that supposition is contradicted by the fact that the survey they sent out DIDN’T ask fans opinions about things like trades. More than that, the overwhelming perception most fans seem to have is that the team doesn’t give a damn about the fans-that’s one of the most common complaints. So your statement “I think it definitely is one of them” isn’t supported by the rest of your article, let alone the prevailing opinion in Metsdom. All indications are that it’s never even occurred to him. After all, he traded Beltran for someone most Mets fans had never heard of, but that didn’t stop him. You’re either lying to yourself about what you really think is going on in Alderson’s mind, or you’re lying to the readership. This has got to be one of the most dishonest and self-serving blog posts I’ve ever read. Some people like to hear themselves talk-you apparenly just like to read what you’ve written, even if it doesn’t make sense.