14
2012
Trading A Starting Pitcher Would Be A Mistake
An article by 
With the Cy Young Award being announced tonight at 6:00 p.m. EST, and R.A. Dickey the favorite to win the award, I feel now is a good time to address the ongoing speculation that the Mets are looking to trade one of their starting pitchers. It’s clear the team is weak in certain areas (catcher, outfield) and does not have much money to spend in free agency, so the only sensible way to improve would be via the trade market. However, there are two reasons why trading one of their regular starters to fill those needs would end up hurting them more than helping them.
Lack of Depth
Many are calling the Mets staff a “strength,” but that might be overstating it. As of now, the 2013 rotation would most likely be: Dickey, Jon Niese, Matt Harvey, Johan Santana, and Dillon Gee. This is a good rotation, but there are still concerns.
R.A. Dickey is amazing. He should win the Cy Young Award, and his success in 2010 and 2011 shows that 2012 was no fluke. That being said, I’m not sold on him as a true #1 starter. He’s a great #2 starter and I think the Mets can get by with him as their ace this year, but a rotation with Dickey anchoring it is not ideal for a team hoping to contend. If the Mets were to trade Dickey, though, that would leave them with virtually no top-end starter for 2013. Harvey certainly has the stuff, but let’s give him another year or two before we annoint him an ace. Niese is a formidable #2/3 option, but he’s not a #1. Gee is a #4 starter at best. Finally, 2013 Johan Santana is not 2008 Johan Santana. In fact, I wouldn’t even count on him being first half-2012 Johan Santana. Nor would I count on him being healthy all season, so immediately you need another viable starter to take his place.
If the Mets were to trade one of their current starters, that would leave a spot open for one of the following: Zack Wheeler, Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Familia, Jeremy Hefner, or Collin McHugh. As much promise as Wheeler has, he’s most likely going to begin the year in AAA so he’s out. The more things play out, the more it seems both Mejia and Familia are destined for the bullpen. That leaves Hefner and McHugh. I like Hefner and think he is a fine long reliever/spot starter, but there is no way I want him making 10-15 starts. As for McHugh, he showed last year he still has some work to do.
Of course it is possible for Sandy Alderson to sign a cheap back-end starter, but can you really expect to get anything of value given the team’s finances? And sure, there’s always a chance someone could include a back-end starter in a trade for Niese or Dickey, but would they include anything of note? I wouldn’t think so, seeing as any team acquiring a pitcher would be doing so to improve their depth.
The Future
While there is hope for 2013, the Mets best chance for success probably starts in 2014. So with that in mind, let’s look ahead.
For the sake of this piece, let’s say the Mets are able to re-sign Dickey to a multi-year extension and don’t trade any of their other pitchers. Their 2014 rotation would look like this: Harvey-Wheeler-Dickey-Niese-Gee. If that doesn’t get you excited as a Mets fan, then you’re probably either dead or in a coma. This rotation has the potential to be great. And since we’re peeking into the future, let’s take a look at a bullpen that includes Bobby Parnell, Josh Edgin, Mejia and Familia. Those are some nice power arms that can dominate the late innings if all goes well. On top of that, everyone (aside from Dickey) will be under team control for the next 4-7 years. Maybe I’m being overly optimistic, but I think they can easily build a contender around those guys.
There are some enticing names on the trading block, and in order to get talent in a trade you have to give up talent in return. But when discussing trades involving assets like Niese or Dickey, you have to look at things in both the long and short term. Dickey could bring back some nice pieces for the future, but are the Mets really that far off from contending for a Wild Card next season? Though it’s not deep, their current rotation should keep them competitive, and all they really need is one guy to step up offensively and give David Wright and Ike Davis some help in the middle of the order. And while Niese may bring in that piece, what will they do to replace a 25-year-old left hander with a career 7.54 K/9 total? The Mets have a good thing going with their pitching. It would be a shame to see them break away from it.
We want to welcome Adam to the MMO Community, where I am certain his insights will make for plenty of interesting debates on our threads. We are happy to have his talents here at Mets Merized Online. Welcome Aboard, Adam.
About the Author: Adam Rossi
I graduated from Siena College in 2008 with a BA in English and a minor in Writing. I was brainwashed at birth by my grandfather to become a Mets fan, and have been following the team since my youth. While they've driven me mad over the years, I still do my best to try to keep things in perspective. Follow me on Twitter: @aj16ross
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Adam, good article… Welcome to MMO. with that being said, i kinda disagree on dickey a bit, he’s still 38 years of age and while he’s proved to be great for us in back to back years, i believe the mets should sell high on him NOW that the got the chance and acquire more top prospects to have in our minor league system or ready young talent at the pro level.. i really like your set of the bullpen to be honest “Bobby Parnell, Josh Edgin, Mejia and Familia” I think mejia and edgin can be our 8th and 9th inning guys while parnell and familia can do well in the 7th inning spot.. I think with wheeler, harvey, niese the mets can have 3 very good formidable threesome (
) for years to come and they can focus in positional players to bring in or acquire to help ike davis..
Adam,
Excellent article, you nailed it, and I agree. I’m only dealing RA to someone that will overpay with a boatload in return, and Niese for even more.
This.
Only I wouldn’t trade Niese right now. If Dickey goes, we’ve got:
Santana: health one big question mark
Harvey: Still basically a rookie even though he looked good after his call up
Gee: health concerns as well
Wheeler: unproven at the ML level as yet.
SP is our only strength right now.
If they’re going to trade SP for other holes, it shouldn’t include Niese.
I agree they shouldn’t trade Neise, but it is hard to see Dickey as part of the long term future. Selling high may not be the worst thing in the world.
The fact is, starting pitching is probably the one place they have depth. If they are going to deal, they have to deal from there.
It’s not so much that the Mets have so much starting pitching depth, its more that the Mets have more than a razor thin supply of major league talent among it’s roster of starting pitchers. Trading from any other unit will create a giant hole. The offense is so devoid of talent that there just isn’t anyone meaningful to trade. So trading a starter is the only way to jump start the process of accumulating a more broad base of talent across the roster.
So, if the Mets trade Dickey there is at least a conversation to be had about who could replace him in the rotation in both the short (Hefner, Mejia) and long (Wheeler) term. No such conversation can be had about say first base (or more importantly, 32 HRs) if the Mets were to deal Davis. Reminder: Duda broke his wrist moving furniture.
As much as we need all our starters, we also need outfielders and a catcher. I also think that with Dickey, you need to sell high. At 38 and only having this kind of year once, we need to take advantage and trade him for as much quality as possible. Either we get either a top notch outfield or catching prospect.
Nice job on a perfectly presented article. You laid out the case on why we shouldn’t deal a Niese or a Dickey, and that is we have no depth. McHugh and Hefner are not replacements for either of those two. Wheeler and Harvey are a part of our future. We play in Citi Field. Pitching should always be our strength as well as speed and defense. Look at the San Francisco Giants as a model of how to win in a huge pitcher’s park.
Winning starts with quality catching. Until we have that we are just spinning our wheels. I would be willing to trade a starter to get catching.
Agreed, but I feel they can acquire a decent catcher to platoon with Thole without giving up anything significant. Toronto and Boston all have a plethora of catchers, none of which should require a lot to trade for.
Catching is a huge commodity. Salty or Arencibia will still cost. But I guess that one of them will be a Met target.
Everyone should be available and a GM should listen to offers about anyone. The problem with talking trades in this context is there is no context. Fans want to say trade this guy or dont trade that guy. None of that means anything until it is put into context. For whom is the big question. Arguing about the merits of trading Ike, for example, are crazy. Why? Because there is no basis. Would you trade Ike for McCutchen straight up? Anyone with half a brain would. But Ike fans say dont trade him. Well if you replace that piece with someone who fits better and gives you more, then you do it.
I give Dickey a 2 year extension max. I dont like having a 38 year old hard throwing late developing knuckballer tying up big money for 5 years (4 after 2013). To many question marks. If you cant get his signature on a sensible contract, deal him for players who can help.
Agreed, there really are no untouchables and even if there were there’s only most likely one of them on the current MLB team in Harvey.
I find myself in complete agreement. We need to build and keep a solid pitching core. It needs to be stocked like it was with Seaver, Koosman, Ryan, Gentry and Gooden, Ojeda, Darling, Fernandez.
I agree to an extent but in trading Dickey with Wheeler and others in the wings it might be the only way to actually score a run for the pitchers. Even San Fran needed some offense.
If Wheeler had only shown that his control problems are not a recurring annual thing, I would say trade Dickey. But Wheeler still has the same bouts of wildness and command issues that prompted the Giants to trade him in the first place. We have to keep Dickey, and in fact I’d trade Wheeler to get a catcher before I would Dickey.
Uh, sure he needs to improve on his control but Harvey had a 3.5 BB/9 in 2011 and Wheeler was at 3.6 for 2012. Not sure it’s that much of a concern.
His walk rate was 4.4 in Buffalo and he had 12 HBP in 2012. The Giants traded him after he put up a 5.5 walk rate to lead the minors and majors in 2010, and then was still at 4.8 when they unloaded him. He is a huge risk and he needs to improve quickly like all pitchers with his command issues.
He had 6 games in AAA.
His total for 2012 was 3.6.
Harvey’s total in 2011 was 3.5.
Cherry pick all you want.
Yea, those 6 games he had 2 good games, 2 mediocre games and 2 were he got absolutely BOMBED!
Yup, thanks for the recap.
K Maxx, i said this kid will remind us of oliver perez due to his wildness and i got hammer here… Even though i posted similar minor league numbers to compare the 2…
Well I agree Adam….They should keep Dickey!
Santana is done after next year, Wheeler will replace him and Dickey would serve as the Vet leader of the pitching staff.
Trade him and your 2014 rotation consists of Niese, Gee, Harvey, Wheeler, and your back to starting guys like Schwinden and Hefner evey 5th day. We have seen how that works.
By keeping Dickey around for another 3 or 4 years you buy some time so you can properly develop another young starter to go with Harvey and Wheeler without having to rush someone.
Unless mejia or Familia all of a sudden find themselves as a starter there is very little to go to in the Minors to fill that rotation spot.
And more likely both will wind up in the pen.
Even if some other kid emerges you can THEN trade Dickey for something without hurtuing yourself and who know maybe even Gee is worth a package of something good.
You can’t have enough pitching and that deficiency has always been what has held this team back.
We look on the verge of having a staff that could be as good as the 86 rotation and giving it away just seems dumb and shortsighted.
Hello? Pitching as a strength is reative to other positions We have NOTHING in the outfield. What are we going to do, convert Zac Lutz to the outfield?
What to do? Easy!
Stop trying to build on a shoestring and go and spend another 10-15 Mil on a good hitting OFer and then if you want trade three of the 6 who will be fighting for an OF spot they are unsuited for to get another OFer.
Thinking you can fix a team while limiting yourself to a 100Mil budget is what is dumb…
Trading away great pitching to get an OF that can’t win without good pitching is just as dumb!