7
2012
Justin Upton Could Be On The Move, D’Backs Engaged In Active Discussions
An article by Hojo's Mojo
Once again, the Arizona Diamondbacks are trying to trade right fielder Justin Upton reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
Major-league sources, however, say the team is again engaged in active discussions about Upton, and one estimates the chances of him playing elsewhere next season are “80-20.”
The Diamondbacks need a shortstop, and Upton possibly could bring them a player such as the Rangers’ Elvis Andrus.
Upton, 25, is signed for $9.75 million next season, $14.25 million in 2014 and $14.5 million in 2015.
His no-trade list last season consisted of four teams: the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs, but the list has since changed, a source said.
One can always dream right?
Original Post 11/5
Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com polled 22 General Managers and Assistant GMs on a variety of hot stove season topics, seven questions in all. Of the seven I found these two to be the most compelling.
Given a choice between these two speedy free-agent center fielders, B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn, which player would you rather sign?
Responses: Bourn 14; Upton 7; no opinion 1.
The outfield position is well-stocked this winter, with Hamilton, Angel Pagan, Torii Hunter, Cody Ross, Shane Victorino, Nick Swisher and Ryan Ludwick all readily available for the right price. Upton and Bourn make for an intriguing debate because they’re close in age, play a premium defensive position and provide different skills sets.
Upton, 28, has become a different hitter with age. Since 2008, his home run total has increased from 9 to 11 to 18 to 23 to 28. In that same span, his on-base percentage has taken a free fall from .383 to .298. According to FanGraphs, Upton swung at 15 percent of pitches outside the strike zone five years ago. Last season, the percentage spiked to a career-high 32.7. Although Upton’s power contributes to his allure, his streakiness and lack of plate discipline detract from the overall picture.
Bourn, who turns 30 in December, leads the majors with 257 stolen bases since 2008, and is second in the big leagues with 59 bunt hits and 175 infield hits in that span. This year Bourn hit .311 before the All-Star break and .225 after it, substantiating the notion that he tends to wear down in the second half.
Although Upton has one of the best throwing arms among big league center fielders, Bourn grades out significantly better in the new-age defensive metrics. He has led center fielders in Bill James’ runs saved rankings in two of the past three seasons.
The baseball people who preferred Upton believe his power tool will stand the test of time better than Bourn’s speed.
Justin Upton, James Shields and Chase Headley all have been mentioned as potential trade candidates. Which player do you think is most likely to get dealt this winter?
Responses: Shields 15; Upton 5; Headley 1. One respondent split his vote between Upton and Headley.
After a flurry of Upton trade speculation died down in July, Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick and club president Derrick Hall said Upton was unlikely to be dealt this winter. But Upton’s name has been bandied around twice now, and it’s resulted in some collateral damage that’s going to have to be mended moving forward.
Several people we spoke to said GM Kevin Towers is intrigued by the thought of moving Upton and getting a mother lode of talent in return. Towers is one of baseball’s premier front office “gunslingers,” and the rare GM with the chutzpah to move a budding superstar if he thinks it’s in his team’s best long-term interests.
“I think the Diamondbacks are motivated to move him and change the culture in their clubhouse,” an NL assistant GM said. “They have a ton of depth in the outfield and can improve their club immensely because they should be able to get two or three quality players in return.”
The Diamondbacks recently traded Upton’s good friend Chris Young to Oakland, but they still have Jason Kubel and Gerardo Parra on the roster and prospects Adam Eaton and A.J. Pollock in the mix. Towers also might look to add a young outfielder in any deal involving Upton.
Padres general manager Josh Byrnes pried three prospects and Edinson Volquez loose from Cincinnati in exchange for Mat Latos, and the expectations are that he would aim very high for Headley, who hit 31 home runs and posted a higher Wins Above Replacement (7.5) than Andrew McCutchen, Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Beltre and Yadier Molina in the FanGraphs WAR rankings.
Everyone expects Tampa Bay GM Andrew Friedman to shop pitching for offense, and he has lots of alternatives. Shields is reasonably priced at $10.25 million in 2013 with a club option for $12 million in 2014. Friedman also could move Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann. Or if he wants to turn the entire baseball world completely upside down, he could entertain offers for David Price.
Crasnick also asked his group to predict where Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke would land and for how much money, among other provocative questions. Click here to read the entire article.
Over at MetsBlog, Matt Cerrone suggested that the Mets should look to trading both Jon Niese and Lucas Duda for Justin Upton. He writes:
I have to think Upton is the kind of hitter that might warrant such a move. The Mets do not want to trade Matt Harvey or Zack Wheeler, who I imagine will intrigue Towers. However, the buzz in baseball is that Arizona is looking for established, major-league pitching, not a bundle of prospects. Niese is affordable, young and under contract, which is why it might make sense to move him for a young, under-contract outfielder.
Although I like Justin Upton, I like a young lefthander with a team friendly contract a lot more, so I would hesitate in moving Niese for him. I don’t believe the Mets and D’Backs match up very well for a trade. The pieces don’t seem to work.
About the Author: Rob Johnson
47 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
Last updated: 06/19/2013
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It is not happening.. Aim lower to start a conversation… trade Dickey and wright. Keep rebuilding since it’s no longer a secret and shoot for 2014.
Exactly…
we need to restock, rebuild…and teach the kids…
I would shoot for Jose Molina to be a backup catcher/mentor for Josh Thole ( or Juan Centeno )
Trading Niese for Upton just doesn’t make a ton of since on so many levels. If you could afford to take on the difference in salary why not just sign a free agent outfielder.
well, because what free agent outfielder is as young and as good as Upton?
I still believe the Mets match up well with Toronto! They have catching depth and outfield depth. They would definately be interested in either or both Dickey and Niese! Who knows maybe they would even take Bay if the Mets paid some of his salary?
how many more years til JP hits arbitration?
if the answer = 2 or less…its NOT worth it…
how many prospects would it take to get Travis D?
if ur gonna build around a catcher…he should be in his early 20′s…
I would love if the Mets made a list of the top 5-10 hitting prospects in baseball and decided to move Wright and Dickey in separate deals to bring in two of those. Let’s say Dickey and Duda can land you d’Arnaud and some other prospects. And then Wright can land you Middlebrooks. All of a sudden you’ve shed $20MM in salary that can be invested into the OF and possibly C, and you have added two potential impact cost-controlled young bats to a system that has ONE in Flores.
I believe that if the market is allowed to develop for Wright and Dickey, the Mets would do very well to restock the system with this kind of high-caliber young talent. A team in 2013 that loses Wright and Dickey…but adds Middlebrooks, d’Arnaud, other prospects and say B.J. Upton, and Ross is a team much closer to contention. Come 2014, you have more money coming off the books, another year of information on our own prospects and the ability to acquire premium players to fill whatever holes remain.
Trading Wright to bring in a top defensive young SS upgrades the mets up the middle in 2 positions…moving Tejada to 2B improves our defense EXPONENTIALLY…dude looks like Roberto Alomar in his prime compared to Murph…
Moving Murph to 3B negates his lack of range…and his semi-decent offense gives us a good stop-gap til Flores comes through…( for 400K a year…for 3 years )
We have a desperate need for defense in 3 positions…
CF
C
SS ( only to move Tejada to 2B )
No one is giving you a catcher unless they have a YOUNG stud already..I dont think JP in Toronto is that good….not worth trading for and Toronto isnt punting on Travis to keep him either…
If the Mets can get a TOP SS and a CF for Wright / Dickey…u gotta do that move…
At Catcher, we are stuck with what we got…i dont see any young stud catchers being traded unless we are giving them one in his prime
the only reason Montero was traded was b/c he didnt project as a C
the only reason Wilson Ramos was traded was b/c the Twins have Joe Mauer
We had to make a move with Cincinatti when they had 2 top catchers in their system at the same time…
we missed the boat on that one ( thanks Sand..err I mean Fred )
anything else out there is stop-gap material
maybe Geovanni Soto could be a fit …
I def look at Jose Molina as a backup vet to help groom the young staff….
we should be looking to groom young talent
lol at matt cerrone… The dbacks have the best starting pitching in the game, they would never trade for niese. Don’t even bother referring to MetsBlog, that site is full of morons.
That is why the Mets match up better with Toronto or SD. Than they do with AZ. Id ask Toronto for D’Arnaud Gose and Nicolino for Niese and Duda.
Why in God’s name would Toronto do that?
the twins too. They have Span, Revere, Mastroianni, Hicks, Willingham, and Arcia(all outfielders) and no pitching, so maybe they would give the mets two of those guys for Niese.
The Dbacks had the 9th best ERA in the NL. The closest thing they have to an ace is Kennedy . They need Starting pitching and are looking to strongly compete next year. As I have been posting here for weeks, they want to unload upton. Dickey would be a very nice fit for them. Upton and a couple of good prospects would work for both teams.
I know, but they have skaggs, bauer, corbin, and 2 or 3 more really good pitching prospects ready to step in to the rotation. With Wade Miley, Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, and Dan Hudson locks to be in the rotation they don’t really have room for another starter(unless they make some big trades).
The media would run poor Justin Upton out of town though…
we would get flooded with stories of Justin being superbly physically gifted, but lacking some “intangible”
either he doesnt hustle…is not an intelligent player….etc..etc…
dont believe me?
Steve Phillips went on a rant in May of 2009 when beltran was hitting .360….
On a Sunday night game he went off for 10 minutes on how Beltran was not a leader, threw to the wrong base, didnt come through in clutch moments, wasnt a winning player…
“While he has that great talent, there are times when he doesn’t play the game and make plays.”
Steve Phillips
Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/05/19/carlos.beltran/1.html#ixzz2BOdlN6gD
Then to make matters worse…a few days later fan on ESPN disagreed with Steve and on a chat session, this is what happened
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/26554
Steve: “If the Mets don’t make the playoffs, I firmly believe they need to reconfigure the core of this team. While Beltran does have talent, I just don’t see him as a winning player. Even after my comments on Sunday night, Beltran let a fly ball drop in between himself and Angel Pagan in the Dodger game.”
If you didnt see the game…u wouldn’t have seen Angel Pagan call off Carlos Beltran and then back off the ball…
Beltran gave Pagan the ONLY DIRTY LOOK after the ball was thrown back in…
this is why i say…
the media…and esp the NY media…has this weird way of shaping public opinion and creating villians that dont exist…
this is why people said Beltran was under-appreciated….thats b/c the media over-criticized…
same thing would happen with Upton…
Steve Phillips said Beltran’s not a winning player? LMFAO.
To be fair…alot of met fans and journalists were picking on beltran from 2005-2010
Yeah, I happened to recall all the backlash/grief the fans gave Beltran when he went to get his knee fixed up. Still, it’s stupid things like that Phillips says that it doesn’t shock me nobody has called him for a FO spot.
yup…
i remember when the media + ALLLLL the met fans that called Beltran selfish in 2010 for getting surgery in January..
I remember when the media + ALLLLLL the met fans that said Beltran just wanted to miss the 2010 season and was lazy…
I remember when the media + ALLLLLL the met fans that said Beltran was the reason the 2010 season went in the tubes when he came back in that LA series
I remember when the media + ALLLLLL the met fans that said Beltran was not a real American for not going to Walter Reed in 2010
I remember when the media + ALLLLLL the met fans that said Beltran was soft because he didnt slide into home-plate ( even though the batter in the on-deck circle never gave him the slide sign )
then I remember when the media + ALLLLLL the met fans that said nothing when their fearless leader David Wright showed his camel toe the day Ruben Tejada got suplexed by Chase Utley….who retaliated ? The guy with the broken knee
There have been many Beltran detractors, without warrant, but there are also many that respected him as a top flight player when health and a classy individual.
In KC…he didnt have these detractors
In Houston…he didnt have these detractors
In SF…he didnt have these detractors
In St.L…he didnt have these detractors
only when he comes to NY does he become lazy, selfish, aloof, etc
and people tend to pre-judge…
if someone told you a particular burger looked nasty and came from a place that had infected cows…even before you take one bite…it is going to affect your experience…
this is the same with sports journalism…
fans make up their minds about who certain hero’s and villians were w/o ever having 1 single experience with that person…
people constantly said the same thing about luis castillo…
the media said one thing…people like sheep repeat it…but the only people who never said those negative things were his managers and teammates…aka the people who interact with him
the fact that the narrative seems to always play along the same stereotypical lines is a whole nother topic for another day
This is stupid, First you said they have the best pitching. Now you say thier rotation is set. There is nobody on that staff that is better than average. Skaggs had an Era of 5.83 in 6 starts. They have the offense covered. they have some decent pitchers. The last piece for them is an ace.
I agree that they could use an ace. But the four pitchers I mentioned are definitely all better than average(i’m not gonna bring up the stats). I just think they would be much better off letting their young pitching fill their rotaion gradually, filling other holes and starting a playoff run in 2014 or 2015. Most of their position players are young and signed for the next few years, so they’re not in any rush to give away talent to compete next year.
Also, 6 starts with a 5.83 era doesn’t mean much. And I didn’t mean ready as in to begin the year, but by the end of the year they should all be in a big league rotation somewhere. And like I said they’re in no rush to bring them up early because they’re in a good position to compete for a few years.
Are you seriously gonna judge Skaggs after a small sample size like that? Did you judge Niese the same way when he started out and had an ERA of 7?
kennedy had an ERA a little over 4. the rest are in the mid to high 3s. Upton is excess. They have 2 super prospects in the OF that they need to clear space for. Yes they have young arms too. they are stacked. They could take Dickey for one year and 5 mil and not even care about giving him an extension. if they make this deal , they get rid of upton. who they are not that happy with and his long term contract. they get thier ace and forget about waiting. If I was thier GM I would do it in a heartbeat.
the only problem is that the 2 super prospects in the OF are more like slightly above average prospects. You’re talking about Adam Eaton and A.J. Pollock right?
Eaton hit .381 with 38 steals. maybe you should looks at stats before you post Pollock hit .318 btw.
I do look at stats before I post, but according to real scouts those guys have average tools that they won’t be able to overachieve with in the majors.
Justin Upton is average at best outside of Arizona. the Mets only play 3 games a year in Arizona.
Anyone see where I am going with this?
This has BLOCKBUSTER written all over it.
Once again, I do not understand the reasoning behind Arizona trying to deal Upton so badly. Still, if an opportunity presented itself and the D-Backs and Rangers were willing to do business when it comes to Andrus and Upton, I can’t see why the Mets can’t jump on this, especially now with Bay gone.
According to MLBTR, now the D-Backs are (officially) putting Trevor Bauer out there.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/diamondbacks-will-listen-to-offers-for-trevor-bauer.html
Trevor Bauer is the single most overrated pitching prospect in the game. No thank you.
I really want to hear an explanation on how he’s so overrated….
I don’t understand trading Niese, a MLB-proven, young lefty, who is affordable, with upside, when he is the only lefty SP in the organization. The return needs to be overwhelming, and while Upton is intriguing he doesn’t overwhelm me. And he gets very costly in 2014 and 2015 at $15 mil per, reducing flexibility. Let’s keep Niese as a core player, and let’s investigate the market for trading Dickey. If Dickey can’t net a player that will fill a need for several years (Trumbo-type), then let’s keep the pitching and use some of the $$$ saved by deferred Bay’s payout on filling the holes.
Too bad no likes here. You excellent post makes alot of common sense and dollars too.
+2.
Beltran was a wonderful player that happened to get hurt a lot. The thing is, when there’s players that seem to always get hurt and others who never do, people start wondering if the hurt player is soft or unwilling to play through injury. I think Beltran never really got the benefit of the doubt.
Was it deserved? I don’t know, but there are players who sit if they get chapped lips, and Beltran was on the DL a lot both with the mets and his two latest teams as well. Also, I don’t hold that horrible collision with Cameron against him.
Concerning catcher, there are zero obvious choices in house because their best young catchers are years away. The only player even close to ready is the unproven and woefully minuscule Juan Centeno. There’s definately defensive ability there, but he’s never had more than 300 minor league AB’s at any level and quite frankly is destined for a career backing up better prospects in triple A or as the starter in a independent league. Sorry, a .370 average in Brooklyn doesn’t mean anything when he didn’t even have a seasons worth of at bats in a short season league. This 5 foot 7 inch workhorse has a lot to overcome.
And Beltran not going to Walter Reed was classless. No amount of excuses or stats defends that and nobody cares how other fans from different teams treat their players. When you negotiate for the bigs bucks, you should expect that we expect results. Dont cry and need to be pushed out of the dugout by a fifty year old for a curtain call. Thanks for Wheeler and I honestly wish you were back, but your not and that’s that.
“And Beltran not going to Walter Reed was classless.”
Beltran knew ahead of time he had a previous engagement scheduled at the same time as the team visit so he went to Walter Reed prior to the team. On his own dime.
“Dont cry and need to be pushed out of the dugout by a fifty year old for a curtain call.”
He wasn’t crying, he’s just doesn’t express himself the way people apparently expect him to. It doesn’t mean he’s a bad guy or a bad team mate or a bad leader.
I like J Upton, but he’s not a fit in NYC. Add to that the fact that you’d have to overpay and it is a total “no go”.
Because Matt said so.
I know the Mets need a catcher badly. Isn’t Miguel Montero a free agent? Last year he batted .286 with 15 hrs and 88 rbi’s. We need an offensive catcher. Why is he not being mentioned for next year? Is he asking alot in salary?
He signed an extension with Zona. Not a free agent.
Oh that’s not good. He would have been perfect
Indeed. Hence why Arizona locked him up.
With the way Towers is putting people on the block left & right, Montero may not even be exempt.
Possibly not, but I think he’d be the last to go. Or at least would have to be heavily overpaid for.
Because when you have a walk rate over 4, you aren’t the frontline pitcher some say you are. But go back to your “Jon Niese for Travis Darnaud and Jake Marisnick” trade proposals. And you say the idiots are at Metsblog eh?