I can also describe myself as a political science guy having earned a degree in History and taken some graduate courses as well, along with studies and continued interest in sociology and psychology. Baseball is a human endeavor and thus to really understand and appreciate how it should be taught, played, and how teams should be put together one cannot get too over engrossed in stats. Equating statistical calculation to that of learned knowledge and observation creates a superficial knowledge of facts with no substance or meaning. Again, it’s more for the fan and for marking achievements by players in the record book but it is not the sort of thing professionals rely on to any great extent.

I’m also sure the subject of WAR doesn’t come up in contract negotiations or in arbitration – not with the owners and the agents.

I agree that the Wilpons are holding out in the belief that their long-term financial situation will compensate for the current financial losses they are taking to still own the team. But I suspect they too relied on financial data and projections and did not take into account the adverse reaction of the fans which cannot be appreciated by calculation.

Agree with you that for the moment, analyzing stats to death is the trend. But I think it is more the fan than the professional for understanding something to the umpteenth decimal is really the most useless pieces of information there is. Notice whenever those who play or manage the game talk about baseball in any manner, they talk in terms of talent, ability, trends, strategy, ways to pitch or be pitched to, etc. They hardly ever refer to stats but to what they’ve seen and analyzed from their observations, experience and astute knowledge of the game.

Stats are fun but cannot be used as the basis of forming professional opinions. As I’ve pointed out, the difference between a .300 hitter and a .260 hitter with 500 at bats is 20hits a season, or one more hit every seventh game. The same math applies to one with a .370 OBP compared to one with a .320 OBP with 600 plate appearances means getting on base 30 more times over the course of a season, or once more every fifth game. In both cases, doesn’t the higher stat appear more impressive than the actual difference?

Yet we have a general manager who wants to talk about PPA and how it related to less offense in the second half – when a few days later Gary Cohen pointed out that the drop Sandy was referring to meant one less pitch every 20 at bats. Again, my point about useless information in the sense of being practical – and we’ve seen the results of that mindset messing up players like Ike Davis and the team in general when opposing pitchers realized they could get quickly ahead in the count.

That’s what happens when we put an “observer” in charge instead of a baseball man.

The analysis is nothing new only the metrics being analyzed.

And the problem is that most new metrics are made by folks trying to promote (and prove out)a certain baseball philosophy that so far has not proven to actually be correct yet.

Stats are only as good as the components and weights of those components that create them.

Which is why WAR and wOBA fail miserably because the weights used are slanted towards a pre-determined outcome basically putting your hand on the scale to tip it in favor of the outcome you want.

Teams have used stats for over 100 years the problem is now that just about anyone has the ability to mash numbers together in a spreadsheet they can pick the stats they FEEL are more important than others, Give them more weight than others and do all this regardless of any proof or reality that those choices are actually as important as they make them out to be!

You are forgetting the height of the walls at the time in Citi Field which were not factors in Pittsburgh. A player would have to hit a ball much higher and deeper for it to get over the fence due to those heights than in Pittsburgh. And after the 2009 season, opposing players as well as the home team hitters admitted they hated hitting there. Take all those factors in consideration – and use one’s baseball instincts – and it isn’t difficult to determine that Citi Field would have engulfed Bay too. I personally felt he would hit no more than 15 home runs that year and would not be a good long-term signing for the Mets because of those reasons. Forget about the concussion, was I just lucky?

By the way, suggest you first investigate things before making accusations about not checing out facts. Sabers, including Bill James, predicted a good 2010 season for Bay, with at least 29 home runs.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/3/6/1359451/2010-player-projections-jason-bay

Also, what charts were used if not saber ones – Mike gave a very thorough description of the factors that went into it.

You said Fenway is only 310 (309 actually) and Citi 338 (335) but he hit more on the road in 09 and had no problem hitting them out of PNC which is once again deeper than Citi. Obviously the HR totals would go down but to think someone could’ve anticipated a guy that hit over 30 HR’s not only in a hitter friendly Fenway but in a cavernous PNC Park would not even reach double figures is total BS. BTW pro saber people were dead set against the J-Bay contract. Those flyball charts were not saber charts

He inherited a farm system that had Mookie Wilson, Hubie Brooks, Tim Leary, Wally Backman, Jeff Reardon, Jesse Orosco, etc. His first two drafts- or should I say Lou Gorman’s first two drafts yield Strawberry, Billy Beane, John Gibbons, Rick Ownbey, Jay Tibbs and Lloyd McClendon, Lenny Dykstra, John Christensen. Follow that up in 1982 and you get Gooden, McDowell, Floyd Youmans, Gerald Young and Wes Gardner. Names we look at now as who were they- but names that would be used to trade for guys named Hernandez, Carter, Ojeda, Teufel, and Ray Knight as well as smaller pieces like Bruce Berenyi and a washed up Tom Seaver. Obviously- Mookie, Straw, Wally, Orosco, Doc, and Lenny speak for themselves.

He did stupidly trade Jeff Reardon for Ellis Valentine.

While he was doing that- he needed to give fans a reason to watch the team- so he brings back Kingman for Steve Henderson. Removing a stain of the Seaver trade and replacing him with a guy who hits balls 500 feet. They resign Rusty Staub, and trade for George Foster. He didn’t expect them to win- but needed to put a product on the field.

Alderson has given no reason to go to games. The jury is still out on the draft picks.

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He inherited a farm system that had Mookie Wilson, Hubie Brooks, Tim Leary, Wally Backman, Jeff Reardon, Jesse Orosco, etc. His first two drafts- or should I say Lou Gorman’s first two drafts yield Strawberry, Billy Beane, John Gibbons, Rick Ownbey, Jay Tibbs and Lloyd McClendon, Lenny Dykstra, John Christensen. Follow that up in 1982 and you get Gooden, McDowell, Floyd Youmans, Gerald Young and Wes Gardner. Names we look at now as who were they- but names that would be used to trade for guys named Hernandez, Carter, Ojeda, Teufel, and Ray Knight as well as smaller pieces like Bruce Berenyi and a washed up Tom Seaver. Obviously- Mookie, Straw, Wally, Orosco, Doc, and Lenny speak for themselves.

He did stupidly trade Jeff Reardon for Ellis Valentine.

While he was doing that- he needed to give fans a reason to watch the team- so he brings back Kingman for Steve Henderson. Removing a stain of the Seaver trade and replacing him with a guy who hits balls 500 feet. They resign Rusty Staub, and trade for George Foster. He didn’t expect them to win- but needed to put a product on the field.

Alderson has given no reason to go to games. The jury is still out on the draft picks.

completely ignoring the fact that Sandy had 6 trade pieces when he took over this team in 2010 compared to the mets in 1980 ( who were more like the astros of 2012 )

Niese u can keep…

Ike on the other hand probably wont resign here…would u after the way they betrayed him?

Ike is going to be arb-eligible after this year….so he will begin to be in the unaffordable category pretty soon…

UNLESS you can sign him to a sensible extension and buy out a couple of free-agent years…cost-controlling 1B for the next 5 years…you def have to have Ike on the table.

Unfortunately, 2013 is probably about re-establishing his trade value…

Parnell, Murphy, Duda, Ike, Tejada all started their arb clocks….and are not in the cost-controlled section…until they are, u have to have them on the table

We are not getting 2nd generation contract guys with big cash…

if anything, we are getting guys in the minors or with less than 1 year service time

Even before I became aware of saber stats I too felt the signing of Jason Bay was going to be a bad move on our part – simply because of Citi Field. It was obvious power hitters were being short changed and we knew the psychological effect it had. He changed his swing to compensate, like Wright admitted he did in 2009, and just like it did to David, it would also affect Bay’s production on the road (as it did Beltran’s) – a serious factor learned from that first year at Citi Field which those stats – and Fonzie – failed to take into consideration.

As far as that player whose name I forgot, Bowa said he would be pitched to as a lead off hitter and we would see how little he would get on base.

As far as the shifts, even as a kid in sandlot pick up games my friends knew how to play me defensively – just in case I actually got some wood on the ball!

Actually, advocates of sabermetrics said Bay was a bad signing for the Mets at the time for the very reason you mentioned. It is referred to as Park Factors.

” I forgot who the player was but Brian Kenny made the argument, based on the amount of walks he got as an eighth place hitter and high OBP (compared to his low batting average) that the one in question would be better suited for the lead off spot due to his ability to get on base. Larry Bowa and Mitch Williams dismissed that immediately citing he would not be pitched around and get those walks batting lead off. They cited how many times those walks were situational and the reason he was batting eighth was because he could not hit.”

You mean they used numerical data to prove their point? What a pair of nerds.

“With saber charts Kenny suggested each batter be played to an unorthadox shift unique to himself and Al Leiter countered that that would mess up a pitcher’s game by having to adjust for each individual shift and that is why extreme shifts can’t be used for every batter.”

Defensive shifts have been employed since long before Bill James began his work. In fact, pitchers adjusting their approach to hitters came long before that.

Shifts are complimentary to what pitchers are already doing.

If you said teams seem to be over using them, I would actually agree. They work well against overswinging power lefties because they get in front and on top of breaking balls. But, now teams are using them on guys like Murphy, who has control of the zone and spreads his hits around. that is counter productive.

But hey, if you want to do the name dropping game, I’ll see your Al Leiter and rasie you almost every manager in the modern era.

Citing saber charts to show Bay’s power is a perfect example of how saber stats are overblown and lack depth in understanding. Those who observed Bay knew his power came from pulling the ball down the line. Those who also know baseball would know that the left field line was only 310 feet away from home plate in Fenway while at Citi Field it was 338 feet. Bucky Dent proved how a short fly hit high enough could clear the green monster.

Also, with Citi Field’s vast outfield dimensions, he would be pitched to differently. With our own death valley in right (at the time) why pitch him inside? We also knew how Citi Field messed up David Wright and Carlos Beltran’s mindset.

Baseball cannot be understood in cut and dry analysis. I forgot who the player was but Brian Kenny made the argument, based on the amount of walks he got as an eighth place hitter and high OBP (compared to his low batting average) that the one in question would be better suited for the lead off spot due to his ability to get on base. Larry Bowa and Mitch Williams dismissed that immediately citing he would not be pitched around and get those walks batting lead off. They cited how many times those walks were situational and the reason he was batting eighth was because he could not hit. They even cited that he was an eighth place hitter even in the minors (something Kenny was unaware of).

With saber charts Kenny suggested each batter be played to an unorthadox shift unique to himself and Al Leiter countered that that would mess up a pitcher’s game by having to adjust for each individual shift and that is why extreme shifts can’t be used for every batter.

All teams employ statisticians but not to the point that the game has shifted. In fact, many GM’s said they rely on that statistical analysis not for themselves but to get a handle on other teams that employ it (i.e., intelligence gathering).

That doesn’t mean it goes out the window. It means it should be standard. It should be one of things every team has. It is true we are at a point were it no longer distinguishes you from the other teams, but that doesn’t mean you ditch it completely.

Look at this way: Most teams that enjoy success on the field do so because they have a good starting rotation. It doesn’t have to be great, but it is usually enought to put them in a position to win. Get your self a couple of guys who go out every 5 days and put you in a position to win and fill out the rest from there.

Now, since most teams know this and attempt to put together the best starting rotation they can, does this mean you turn around and scrap the idea of a good starting 5? Of course not. you may concede that you can’t, for whatever reason, put out a quality startng rotation and work around it, but you don’t say “we don’t need good starting pitching”.