12
2012
Can Ike Davis Crack The 40 Home Run Mark?
An article by 
Ike Davis rebounded after a slow start to his 2012 season to show us his power potential with 32 jacks
Ike Davis had a first half to forget in 2012. But he rebounded in the second half to produce high end power numbers.
Ike became the first Met player to reach the 30 home run mark since Carlos Delgado jacked 38, and David Wright hit 33 in 2008. Davis displayed the kind of power you hope to get from a future clean up hitter. Ike will turn 26 just before opening day in 2013, and will enter a year where he will be counted on heavily to provide power and run production.
Was what we saw from him in 2012 his ceiling, or is there more power to come from the Ike man?
I have said all along that Davis has 30 home run power. I believed all along that he could potentially be our cleanup hitter of the future. I wasn’t sold on it, but he had the potential to do it. His home runs are not cheap ones by any means. When he gets the barrel on the ball, it travels a long way.
So the question is, Does Davis have the kind of power potential that could lead to a 40 home run season?
I’m not saying he is going to, or ever will hit 40 homers. I am just simply wondering if he has it in him.
I believe that he does have the potential to do that. His strikeout numbers are a little high, but they are in line with some of the other sluggers in baseball. Ike struck out 138 in 2010, and 141 times in 2012. Both seasons he accumulation over 500 at-bats, and both years he had over 50 extra base hits.
You take the good with the bad with power hitters. If Ike can hit consistently over 30 home runs, and possibly approach the 35-40 home runs mark on occasion, the Mets will be in very good shape in the power department.
About the Author: Dan Valis
I am a staff writer for Mets Merized Online. I am a Mets team analyst with a focus on the minor league system, as well as the major league club. I am a lifelong New Yorker who was born and raised to be a Mets fan. The ups and downs of being a Mets fan is what makes following this team so much fun, but at times so frustrating. You can follow me on Twitter @BgAppleMetsTalk.
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Dan, so… i kinda don’t understand the article, are you saying he will but will he? With that being said if you ask me, i’d say without being hesitant that this is the guy that will lead the mets to the promise land. Instead of trying to sign certain overrated player the mets need and should try to build around this guy… This is a legitimate 280 40 125 type player who will play good to great defense at 1B.
After two weeks of very solemn times, I appreciate the laugh, you never fail me, really thanks….
“Instead of trying to sign certain overrated player the mets need and should try to build around this guy… This is a legitimate 280 40 125 type player who will play good to great defense at 1B.”
So after one complete year you deem Ike a legitimate 280, 40 hr guy, even though he hasn’t done that yet, and has a career .252 average and prefer him over an “overrated” guy that has hit actually 30 hrs, twice, and 29 once, with a career .301 and been to the ASG 6 times. Ok then…….
No, you’re not biased.
HAHAHAHA I needed that one.
I, prefer BOTH on the team, but hey that’s just me.
I think the question should be: can he crack the .250 mark? I love the idea of 40 HRs, but is it unreasonable to expect a major league hitter to have some success one out of every four times up?
I’ll have to correct one thing in this. saying success one out of every four times would mean that he has zero walks, considering if a hitter gets on base, it is a success. I’d say it’s a little unrealistic to think Ike is going to have zero walks throughout a season. So it’s really more in the 1 out of every 2.6-2.9 range, which is prob a pretty fair projection for Ike, taking his three seasons in the majors into account.
cue Alex68 and Metsie…
That’s just technical crap that mean absolutely NOTHING when it comes to winning. ANd that’s all i care about.
If Ike hits 240-280 that will be fine. He always had a pretty good eye so he’ll walk at whatever rate that suits him but i really don’t care about that when talking about Ike. His RBI production is what you should talk about not his friggin ability to walk. What will get him big money is his HR & RBI production and ability to get the big hits when it matters. The walk stuff is completely insignificant and is related to nothing.
About the article, I’ve been saying Ike will develop into a 35-45 HR since 2 years ago.
“If Ike hits 240-280 that will be fine.”
That’s a 40 point swing. Kind of significant, don’t you think?
“What will get him big money is his HR & RBI production”
Is it big money or winning that matters.
By the way, the RBI total will most likely be a bye-product of his HR total.
lol yup there we go.
Walks and OBP talk have ruined this site… Who cares about a walk from the middle of the order guys?? Usually those guys get paid to DRIVE in runs not to be on base.. The guy since june 12 had a 265 BA and a 345 OBP, what more do you want from the guy?? ohh, wait, that seems to be more important than the 27 HR and those 68 runs he drove in 100 games… Who CARES about OBP!? these sabermetrician are killing me… It took him a while to adjust, he had a bad month and a half due to his lack of baseball playing time the year prior. the man is due for a breakout year and to take the reign as the mets BEST player..
Alex the walk and OBP talk is so sickening and off the charts it’s taken the enjoyment out of baseball and this site. It is so stupid beyond belief and the lengths people go to to discuss this irrelevant garbage is why we don’t hear much talk about winning anymore.
Outside of just a few who still know what’s important nobody cares to talk about winning anymore, just walks and it’s enrages me.
THIS^^^^^
We’ve been saying for over a year now, it’s getting a little crazy.. all of the sudden the people who never play the game can enter a conversation here as soon as they say OBP and UZR and WAR etc…. Pathetic!!!!
any evidence why obp doesn’t matter?
Find me where i say it doesn’t matter??? problem i have with it is that we shift the focus from producing run to get on base… While i know some of you cynics will say “Well you have to get on base to produce runs” I will also say you have to at some point swing the bat to drive in the runs too.. Ike davis is a run producer power hitter, what do you expect!? him to be a 400 OBP Type guy? NO, perhaps down the road he will become a better overall hitter, but his projections is the like of a 260-280 Type Hitter who will have 30+ HR 100+ RBI per season, and I for one can live with that, who cares about OBP as long as we are winning and he’s being the power hitter we need for years to come…
I mean I know what you’re saying… someone with a 250 obp and 50 home runs is better than someone with a 350 obp and 10 home runs. But obp is way more important than batting average.
don’t bother. they don’t want to believe that. even though there’s all the proof in the world for it, and none against it. It’s like Real Time with Bill Maher if anyone watches it. The “Fact Bubble”. These guys aren’t into facts.
Oh i’m into facts,
In Fred Lewis and Brad Emaus’ case then yes, OBP is more important than batting AVG because they can’t hit. They’re not major leaguers because they can’t hit but hey – they have a good OBP and these fools thought they can turn him into a major leaguer because they have a “philosophy”. I’ve been watching baseball all my life and saw many great championships being won without this “philosophy”.
You want to talk about OBP than fine, i can talk about it when it comes to a leadoff hitter and sometimes a number 2 hitter even though I personally prefer a good “bat handler” in a very versatile batting position such as the 2 hole. But you saber clowns who’ve never stepped foot on a diamond in any type of competitive level don’t know that so go enjoy your fantasy baseball.
If Ike Davis is to have a career and make millions of dollars he has to do 3 things:
- hit the ball out of the park
- Drive in runs because he’s a run producer
- Drive in runs in big spots
His OBP? I don’t care if it’s low when he hits 45 HRs, or high when he hits .230 with 15 HRs. As long as he’s hitting Hrs and driving in runs – for which is what he is PAID to do.
Bayonne – Good to see you’re safe after Sandy.
My issue with your statement above is two things:
“But you saber clowns who’ve never stepped foot on a diamond in any type of competitive level don’t know that so go enjoy your fantasy baseball.”
— You say this but you also knock guys like Billy Beane all the time. Billy Beane has seen more professional baseball than you ever have. So if he’s a “saberclown” as you put it, then doesn’t your theory of them not knowing the game kind of get thrown out the window?
Why can’t people just have different views of what they feel is important?
Secondly regarding Ike’s OBP v. AVG. He needs both. A “great” hitter isn’t a .310 OBP guy and he isn’t a .240 hitter either. Average is a nice benchmark, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Luis Castillo hit .300 in 2009, was he a great hitter? No… because when you look at his slugging percentage you can see that what he did with the bat had little impact. Yet, he had a .387 OBP.
When you get in a habit of looking at one stat and assuming it tells you what you need to know, that’s when you can get into trouble whether it’s a sabr stat or old school.
If Ike hit .218 average, .349 OBP, 29HR 85RBI on average over the next 5 years, would you be happy?
I wouldn’t. Those 29 HR and 85RBI don’t make him a superstar… they make him Carlos Pena.
I love the “never played the game” claim. As if the person who throws it out knows the first thing about the person they are attacking (because the actual discussion has gone beyond them).
Not to mention that plenty of people who have played the game, very prominent people I might add, are advocates of advanced stats.
It is also funny when people who never played beyond local high school attack act as some sort of sages with secret knowledge.
I know brandon mcCarthy and zack grienke use advanced stats, i’m sure plenty of other players do too.
To be honest, it doesn’t matter. Players are there to play. Coaches and execs are supposed to be analyzing the stats and making the decisions from there. The players don’t have to understand them.
Although, David Cone has said he wished a lot of that info was available when he pitched. He says things like pitch fx are very useful when preparing for an opponent.
Once again you’ve turned this into a OBP is all that matters thing. Don’t really remember saying anything of the sort. The dude said “successful 1 out of 4 times”. I simply said, yeah if he had zero walks. But since thats not realistic, it’s more like 1 out of 2.6-2.9 times. That’s it. If he hits the crap out of the ball in that 1 out of 2.6-2.9 times and drives in runs then great, even better. Geez if anyone has a hard-on for OBP it’s you guys.
so are we not allowed to curse here or what? every time i curse my post gets deleted.
Again, OBP for the mets the past 2 years have been the main focus.. Yet we have not had a single guy driving in 100 runs… I mean, come on…
This comment firmly displays your lack of understanding of how the game actually works, and why you think that we think that OBP is all that matters. Because if you knew, you wouldn’t be asking wondering why they didn’t have a 100-RBI guy.
Bro, listen, you have no idea what you’re talking about.. you’re one of those who are so hung up with numbers that think OBP is what measures a player…. You really think i’m concern with davis OBP if he’s hitting HR and driving in runs?? The other idiot is comparing ike davis’ situation with luis castillo… Different players, different mindset when it comes to an at bat… hitters are measure by where you are in the lineup, castillo got paid for his defense, speed and ike davis i am sure will get paid for producing runs with Power and for his defense as well…
right on cue.
“Walks and OBP talk have ruined this site”
Well, yo uand Bayonne are certainly welcome to not engage in them. I hate talking about the ‘pons financial situation. So, guess what: I stay out of those discussions.
It would probably work really well for you two and several others since none of you seem to have a clue as to what you are talking about when the subject is broached.
“The guy since june 12 had a 265 BA and a 345 OBP, what more do you want from the guy?? ”
Decent productivity the other 2 months as well?
“these sabermetrician are killing me… It took him a while to adjust, he had a bad month and a half due to his lack of baseball playing time the year prior. the man is due for a breakout year and to take the reign as the mets BEST player..”
Actually, the divide over sending Davis down wasn’t advanced vs voodoo. It seemed to come down to the individual making voicing the opinion. I myself was in the “whatever Collins and Hudgens think is best” camp.
Somebody really needs to edit your writing. I have no idea what the heck you are talking about in the second half of your post. This is something I’ve come to expect from Metsblog, but not on MMO. Everybody is entitled to a bad day, but you need to fix this entire portion:
I’m saying he is going to, or ever will hit 40 homers. I am just simply wondering if he has it in him?
I believe that he does have the potential to do that. His strikeout numbers are a little high, but they are in line with some of the other sluggers in baseball. Ike struck out 138 in 2010, and 141 times in 2012. Both seasons he accumulation over 500 at-bats, and both years he had over 50 extra base hits.
You take the good with the bad with power hitters. If Ike can hit consistently over 30 home runs, and possibly approach the 35-40 home runs mark on occasion, the Mets will be in very good shape in the power department.
Yep, that’s pretty bad. Lets see how long it takes for them to fix it.
Ike can hit 40. Like was mentioned making more contact is important but so is going the other way. The last game in Miami showed he can go down the LF line and bank some HRs. If he starts to drive the ball consistently to the opposite field, 40 is a reachable number.
In almost any other park I would say 40 homeruns would be a walk in the park for Ike. But I dont see him doing this in Citi. Davis has proven to be a very streaky hitter (even before the injury and in the minors). He has long bouts where he looks awful, but when he’s hot he’s dangerous. 40 homer hitters have to be more consistent and so far Ike Davis has proven to be very inconsistent.
Ike can hit 40 dingers. The park doesn’t matter. However, he may whiff 200 times trying. We know he has the power, but we need to see Ike do 2 things at the plate – 1. hit lefties and 2. show better situational hitting (take a walk, go other way, single up the middle for big run on 2b). Hitting 4th he needs to produce runs, mostly RBI. If he improves in these areas and hits 25 hr we’ll all be happier.
I also wonder about him hitting 50 homers and will say someday that he might hit 40 homers, but will he and if so will he? I’m not saying he will but am saying that maybe he won’t, can he? 40 homers, I saying. What are you saying?
…Dan, did you go to the Yoda school of journalism?
With a guy like Ike you have to take into account the Citifield park factors. True for anyone who is a HR hitter as well.
Looking at his 2012 Splits you see he could easily hit 40 HRs if he played somewhere else for half his games.
2012 Splits
Home – 271PA 45H 4D 11HR .188BA
Away – 313PA 73H 22D 21HR .262BA
And those were compiled in a pretty down year for Ike.
So can Ike be a 40HR guy?
Sure just not in Citifield and I doubt any 40 HR guy will ever hit 40 in Citifield.
This is kind of the reverse of what is true about Upton. Upton is better where he is.
Trade Ike and he could turn into a monster that no matter what you get in return for him will pale in comparison to what Ike will do once he gets into a park where hitting HRs isn’t like curing cancer!
Unless you are a chick with an eye for Ike, don’t worry about his HR totals. Worry about run production from the clean-up spot, whether it comes by HRs, doubles, walks, sac flies, HBPs, whatever.
Chicks dig the longball, hitters dig the hits, sabers dig the walks.
Well it’s very possible that his ceiling may be higher than 40. I like his ability enought and with his average home rum being 420 feet that 45 HR and multiple seasons is possible baring a career changing injury. He is the player David Wright wishes he was and will never be again.
I like OBP too. I love walks. But I value contact. And it is true that some stats like runs scored and runs batted in are heavily dependent on what kind of a lineup you happen to be in. I just feel that Ike has a lot of holes, and I like to think that when my guy is up with a RISP and the game on the line, he is not going to be a piece of meat for a good reliever. I will take the homers, but I would probably bat him 6th in a decent lineup.
There is no question in my mind that Ike Davis can and will hit 40 HRs in a season in the near future…the more impressive feat for him would be to bat above .275 per season consistently.