24
2012
The Mets, The Outfield Market, And The Reality Of The Situation
An article by 
Buster Olney of ESPN Insider expects most teams to spend more than usual this offseason because of all the cash that’s coming in from the new an lucrative national and local TV deals that were recently signed. Mid to large market teams will be seeing a cash infusion between $25-$30 million more than the previous deals and free agents expect to cash in on all that dough this winter.
Among the outfielders that Olney says will cash in with big paydays he lists Angel Pagan and Ryan Ludwick.
Some say that the free agent market for outfielders is weak, but I disagree. Depending on how much you are looking to spend there’s quite a variety of options that can help you whether you’re looking for speed, power, average, defense or a combination of all those things.
The Mets of course can use anything at this point as their outfield situation is in complete shambles.But the big problem for them might be that most of those millions coming in from these national deals will be going towards operations and paying down the debt.
Sandy Alderson already warned that nothing significant will happen via free agency, and yet most of the questions I get from fans is which free agents we’ll be targeting. My answer is nobody that will actually change things.
But just in case you were wondering, here is a list of outfielders expected to hit the market in a couple of weeks. Those with asterisks have team options, but many of them are not expected to be exercised. To facilitate things for you, I even divided them all into convenient little groups:
These amounts are total dollars of a deal, not annual!
1. The Price Is Right – $2MM or less
2. I Wouldn’t Bet On It – $2MM to $15MM
3. Snowball’s Chance In Hell – $15MM or more
The Price Is Right
Bobby Abreu, LAD- Alfredo Amezaga, CHC
- Rick Ankiel, WAS
- Johnny Damon, CLE
- Matt Diaz, ATL
- Kosuke Fukudome, NYY
- Reed Johnson, ATL
- Andruw Jones, NYY
- Hideki Matsui, TB
- Xavier Nady, SF
- Juan Rivera, LAD *
- Luke Scott, TB *
- Ryan Spilborghs, TEX
- Reggie Willits, LAA
I Wouldn’t Bet On It
Marlon Byrd, BOS- Melky Cabrera, SF
- Jonny Gomes, OAK
- Scott Hairston, NYM
- Raul Ibanez, NYY
- Ryan Ludwick, CIN *
- Juan Pierre, PHI
- Grady Sizemore, CLE
- Ichiro Suzuki, NYY
- Shane Victorino, LAD
Snowball’s Chance In Hell
Michael Bourn, ATL- Curtis Granderson, NYY *
- Josh Hamilton, TEX
- Torii Hunter, LAA
- Angel Pagan, SF
- Cody Ross, BOS
- Nick Swisher, NYY
- B.J. Upton, TB
- Delmon Young, DET
Those are your options…
Any other outfield additions would have to come via trade. What we could get hinges on if the trade chip is someone like Josh Thole or Dillon Gee, or moving something with actual value like a Jon Niese or David Wright.
If you think there’s help on the farm, forget about it. Kirk is as close as it gets and you can count on 150 Ks from him to go with whatever else he can give you.
Things are very bleak. Remember the good old days when all we needed was a number two starter, a setup man and a second baseman?
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 27 | 18 | .600 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 23 | .500 | 4.5 |
| Phillies | 22 | 24 | .478 | 5.5 |
| Mets | 17 | 26 | .395 | 9.0 |
| Marlins | 13 | 33 | .283 | 14.5 |
Last updated: 05/22/2013
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You really think Pagan, Hunter and Young are making that kind of money?
No way. And Melky is not getting a big payday either.
Pagan will easily get a minimum of 3/25 and more likely 3/30, Young too. Hunter should get 2/20, Point is I’d be shocked if they didnt get more than $15M. Qualifying offers alone will be $12M+.
its per year, otherwise victorino wouldve been in the last section
No, actually Seligman got it right. It’s total dollars. And why would anyone give Victorino $15 million anyway?
if you were making a philly joke, you should have put a smily at the end. But seriously, victorino’s gonna get 2 years 25 mil at least.
Just as a head up for future reference for you or anyone else Heyman tweeted a few days ago that the official qualifying number will be $13.3M.
https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/259703583384166401
Wow, it went up more than 10% in one year. QO’s may be $17 million by end of this CBA. I think this is awful for small market teams. Like us.
Why not Sizemore? He won’t come with a hefty price tag
Given his age and potential, someone is going to give him a stupid deal, hoping for the next Nelson Cruz or Jose Batista
If Pagan ends up signing for $15M or more a season then that is just all the more reason to hold on to Kirk Nieuwenhuis who put up comparable numbers to Pagan during the same span while Nieuwenhuis was up this past season.
My projections are based on the total dollars of a deal, not annual. Guess that little tidbit might help.
LoL, definitely helps.
That completely changes things. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Mets shell out $6 million or so over 2 or 3 years. Not likely, but wouldn’t be totally out of the question.
Also, I still think you are over estimating what Melky will get.
in that case, the numbers are really meaningless, since you have no clue how many years. it will be spread over.
I wouldn’t mind signing Ankiel, as a 4th OF type and backup CF. Would have to think 1 trade for RF, then Duda in LF. Does not make my stomach sit well writing that, though I don’t mind starting with Kirk somewhere in the OF opening day.
No offense, but what the hell was the point of this? We already know they aren’t signing any free agents. Besides, after this year, free agent markets will be permanently barren. We all know teams lock up young stars through their prime years.
What the Mets need is a creative front office that will make trades. They don’t have one, so yes, we are effed.
Well the point of it for me, was that I’d hope to curtail the email to the site asking me if the Mets will go after Bourn or what are the odds we get Pagan back. You see those questions Matt answers on MetsBlog almost daily? I get them too. Hopefully, people will understand the reality of the situation now. That’s the hope. Thanks for chipping in.
Ok…makes sense then.
Conversely, it should stimulate discussion about low-key trades that, hopefully, will make a difference over time.
IMHO our two prime targets should be Toronto’s Jake Marisnick and San Fran’s Gary Brown because they are near ML ready and obtainable. Both ball players are RH OFs with speed and power. We probably have something of value to acquire both ball players without depleting our resources or creating an unnecessary deficit at the ML level.
Worthy trade chips: Murphy, Valdespin, Familia, Mejia, Niewenhuis, McHugh and, in a larger package, Niese.
Sandy already said to not expect big FA signings, and that changes were likely to come through trades.
Just a thought, but why does one of the biggest market teams worry about money, Don’t we deserve a more competent owner then what we have. We should have an owner that realizes what he has. Shouldn’t MLB step in and fix this mess……….
Fix this mess = putting Sandy in charge.
fact is, the value of MLB teams is skyrocketing right now…partly due to TV deals…
in the past 5-7 years, we have seen:
the Cubs sell…
the Dodgers sell
the Padres sell
the Nationals sell
the Rangers sell
the Diamondbacks sell
the Athletics sell
the Astros sell
the Braves sell..
thats almost 33% of the league…
Now that the Boss has died…Fred Wilpon has been involved in owning a MLB club longer than any single MLB owner in baseball right now…yes was a 5% holder in 1980…but he was meddling even back then…it increased in 1986….even more so after he bought out DoubleDay…
we have been held captive by this creep and his underachieving son since 1980…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_principal_owners
the price of these teams has skyrocketed…
the mets however…have the HIGHEST deb/value ratio of any team in baseball
http://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#p_1_s_a6_
right now the mets are -69
now sort the list by operating income…
u will see the cleveland indians…a team with absolute piss-poor attendance…ranked number 1
they have a collapsed economy…only drew 1.8 mil fans…
and somehow they have a higher operating income than the yankees…
well…that operating income INCLUDES the money they all get from the pot…
if the mets cant contribute to that pot…they get new owners…
its really that simple…
u have to be able to afford ur seat at the table…
larry dolan is at +30
the steinbrenners are barely breaking even
the wilpons are at -69
AND THESE numbers were taken at the BEGINNING of this year…
remember when the wilpons were selling off chunks of the team…
16% of that was to their business partners in the SNY deal
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/adam_rubin_sny_bailing_out_mets
now here is something to make u vomit…
it turns out the Wilpons while crying broke about the MLB team…cashed in on 230 million dollars from SNY dividends…
Forbes did an article on how the Wilpons are personally profiting while crying broke
http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2012/10/06/mets-owners-may-pay-themselves-big-dividend-while-teams-fans-suffer/
237 million…
Reyes this year – 10 mil
Beltran = 13 mil
Pagan = 5 mil..
The Mets could afford to bench bay forever, put Duda in LF…Beltran in RF…Pagan in CF…Reyes at SS…Tejada at 2B…and they would’ve fielded a much better defensive and offensive team…
237 mil..
right in their pockets…
now go and tell me why i should invest even 1 dime into this franchise
THE PRICE IS WRONG!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QJiAK-s5a0
It’s depressing reading about the Mets these days… they’re not even pretending that they’re going to be very good next year.
you think Pagan and Swisher are getting 15mill+?
I think Swisher can land that annually from a dumb owner (hi, Jeffrey Loria!) . Pagan can probably rake that over 2 years.
O)h, how come the Mets don’t get all that dough???? Oh I get it stays with the Wilpons who have a staff of clones to tell us they are broke and hope all the lies stick and attendance doesn’t drop from 11th place to 16th place next year. Got it.
Bay/Duda, Captain Kirk, Baxter/Torres …………. yes that’s your 2013 Outfield …………. get over it!
They might as well go with that. If the Mets are only willing to bring in guys who they can pay $1.5m-$2M, why waste the time. They are better off going with what they have. Players in this price range are usually nothing more than 4th outfielders. Unless they are willing to put in some money towards the OF, go with Kirk, Duda, Valdy, Bay, and Baxter. Who knows? Maybe one or two will surprise.
I’d happily take a veteran like Coco Crisp and his $7mm salary off the A’s hands for the 1 more year he has left on his contract, he has a little pop, solid cf and can get majority of playing time in cf while Kirk can play all 3 OF positions.it won’t totally break the bank. I’d rather get a righty but I’m not nearly as comfortable just handing cf over to an injury prone inconsistent Kirk who does have promise and flashes of good play, without any real backup in cf. We would have to get a righty hitting catcher to balance the lineup but with our strong starters and the addition of a veteran presence in of , an upgrade at catcher and a couple of bullpen pieces and possibly a mid season trade, I don’t think we’re far off from potential playoff berth. I honestly think when we were 8 games over .500 last season we should have taken on salary and some vets but Sandy didn’t want to mess with the ‘chemistry’ and paid the price as Citi field was empty for last 2 months of the season
From MLBTR:
The GM doesn’t intend on moving any of the club’s other outfielders after acquiring Young and reiterated how important Coco Crisp is to the team, tweets Casey Pratt of CSNBayArea.com. Beane believes that the club can find playing time for all of their outfielders by rotating them and utilizing the DH spot.
Yeah, disappointed by that. I thought there could have been a match there.
He says that now though. We all know if he gets the right offer, he’ll be changing his mind.
True but in that case what is the right offer and could the Mets even offer that without overpaying?
Where’s Joel Youngblood on that list??? It feels like 1980 all over again…The Magic is back!
Hey Joe, you should have just left it at the “price is right” list and slung the rest into Snowballs chance…
I almost did that, lol.
“things are looking bleak. Remember when all we needed was a starter, a setup man and a second baseman”.
I remember those days Joe, but I doubt most readers of this site are old enough to recall the 1968 offseason. Not even sure about you!
MAKE SOME MOVES!!!!!
*Send over Murphy and Hefner to Colorado for Chris Nelson (2b)/ and Ramon Hernandez (C) to back up Jaso…
-Nelson is gonna be a great hitter.. (is already) young has pop and hits for AVG with some speed..but total upgrade.. better fielder…
*Send Neise/Mejia/Duda to AZ for Upton(RF)
-locks up a 5 tool RF for next 4 years UPTON is a great move..
*Send over in a monster trade Ike Davis/Parnell/Nuienhuis/McHugh for Alex Gordon and Billy Butler..
*Send over Gee/Valdyspin to Seattle for Jaso (C) and Wilhelmsen (closer)
-Jaso is a young good catcher Seattle is deep there and Wilehmsen is a closer we need and Jaso is a great C
-they will need another SP so Gee slides in nice.
**Sign Grady Sizemore (LF/CF) no brainer here…he will get 2 yrs 5million .. $ its a steal he is 30yrs old and is auto upgrade with high level of potential coming back.. DO THIS PLEASE!! Resign Harriston as well and can swap in out as needed with nueihuis in the OF and bats off bench
*Sign Hisashi Iwakuma SP He is a great 3 SP or 4 and has #2 stuff .. he will be reasonable valued and could get for 3 yrs 20mil$ he never walks guys goes 6+ always and is steady as hell …
*Sign Gavin Floyd SP he is a great SP .. he will be less than he is gettin now which is 9mil a yr.. but the guy could ask for 7mil a year for 3 yrs… he is 6+ inning 6+ K guy each time out…
*Sign Mike adams for bullpen.. he is just so solid and sets up the pen for the season with young old mix we have
SP:RA Dickey
SP:Harvey
SP:Santana
SP:Iwakana
SP:FLoyd
**SP:With Wheeler/Familia knocking on the door when one goes down ….
RP:Whilhelsen/Edgerin/Rodrgiguez/Rauch/Carlson/Adams(Pelfrey perhaps as well)
1.Sizemore(CF)
2.Nelson(2B)
3.Wright (3B)
4.Butler(1b)
5.Upton (RF)
6.Gordon (LF)
7.Jaso (C)
8.Tejada (SS)
9. PITCHER
DO THIS !!!! lol Monster young team !!! love it sll under 30 with wright/sizemore like 31 and some older SP’s but with Familia and Wheeler on the way