23
2012
Shohei Otani And The Mets
An article by 
The young man pictured above is Shohei Otani – the flame-throwing high school phenom out of Japan. The story about this kid is that he can dial it up to about 99 MPH on occasion at just 18 years old, and because of this, he has drawn instant comparisons to Yu Darvish. Patrick Newman at NPB Tracker says it best when he says, “Otani also has a similarly live arm, though with a little more velocity and a lot less polish than Darvish exhibited as a high schooler.” (You can read that article here if you are interested. It is a nice scouting report complete with some video.) I came across the small blurb on MLBTR about two days ago and he caught my attention.
So now comes the matter of why this kid is so special. Apparently, he has been considering making the jump over to the MLB right away at 18 and skipping out on the NPB draft, which takes place in two days. This has basically been confirmed, but I do not want to jump on that statement. He creates a really interesting situation because of that. See, Otani is technically an International Free Agent if he jumps over right now, which means he would count against the new cap placed on IFA signings.
Now, while you hear the names of the Dodgers, Red Sox, Rangers, Orioles, and Yankees tossed around with him, it did not discourage me enoguh to pen a small piece on him. This is where it gets a little dicey because I am by no means an expert on the matter of IFA. Basically, if I make a mistake here, a correction and explanation would be great.
The cap resets on July 2nd of next year (2013) so if the Mets want to sign him, they have to use the money allotted for 2012. Becuse Otani is an IFA, he is limited to the IFA signing bonus cap, which I believe is around $2.9 MM. The Mets have already spent $1.75 MM on Amed Rosario (using the spelling BA released) – a 16-year old shortstop. I do not know much about the Mets IFA pool, but on average, we can guess they have about $1 MM to throw as a bonus to Otani. From there, he would enter the system as any other IFA would at the discretion of the team.
A team can go over the cap by up to 5% by paying a tax while going over any further limits the amount of money you can shell out to IFAs in the following years. Of course, this is the Mets, so you should not expect any overages…especially for minor league players, how crazy would that be? Investing over-slot type money for a prospect… The 5% would amount to about 3.075 MM, without including the 75% tax on the overage.
I expect Otani to sign before July of next year, but I am disappointed because I have heard basically nothing about the Mets trying to court this guy. I would honestly offer whatever money we have left in our IFA budget until next July to the guy. The reason I find myself so enamored with Otani is the fact that he would have the time to go through an MLB minor league system and develop as any other raw prospect would. If you all remember, just a little while back in 2009, the Mets had reps looking at Yusei Kikuchi, who decided to stay in Japan after much deliberation.
Bottom line, Otani could or could not pan out. He is raw, but as an MLB GM, could you really complain about adding a prospect for $2.9 MM who can bring at 100 mph? I wish the Mets could go after him, but in all honesty, all signs point to nothing. But go ahead guys, go off – How do you feel about the IFA SB cap or the IFA market in general? If we had all $2.9 MM free, would you spend it all on Otani? Lastly, where do you expect him to sign? The smart money is either on the Red Sox or the Rangers, I believe.
By the way, if you missed the last episode of MMO Radio, which features myself and Pete Shapiro discussing the 40-man roster and the 2012 AAA/AA seasons, you can catch it on demand/podcast right here.
About the Author: Satish Ram
I am a Senior Writer and Editor here at MetsMerized - where I specialize in Minor League coverage. I have been on the staff since 2007 and I am currently in my third semester of college in New York City. You can find me at www.facebook.com/SatishRam or @SilverHeatMMO. Feel free to message me - I love talking about the Mets or baseball overall with anybody.
63 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 28 | .600 | - |
| Nationals | 34 | 35 | .493 | 7.5 |
| Phillies | 34 | 37 | .479 | 8.5 |
| Mets | 25 | 40 | .385 | 14.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 47 | .319 | 19.5 |
Last updated: 06/18/2013
Recent Comments
- El Sid: on Mets Acquire Eric Young Jr. For Collin McHugh, DFA Cowgill and Promote Brown: They traded Montero for Eric Young Jr.?!? Oh,...
- BadBadLeroyBrown: on Mets Acquire Eric Young Jr. For Collin McHugh, DFA Cowgill and Promote Brown: leadoff TYPE
- BadBadLeroyBrown: on Mets Acquire Eric Young Jr. For Collin McHugh, DFA Cowgill and Promote Brown: He's a local kid hopefully he is...
- Justin: on Mets Acquire Eric Young Jr. For Collin McHugh, DFA Cowgill and Promote Brown: Is this the MLB quality outfielder Alderson...
- Pitcher's Wins Matter: on The Future Is Here: Six Scoreless In Wheeler’s MLB Debut: Oh really? People who can work with...
Latest From Mets Minors
Check Out These Great MLB Links!
Photographs From Gordon Donovan
Fans Follow Us On Twitter!
1332 Fans Like Us On Facebook!
2341 Fans Read Our Feed!
1702 Fans Subscribe via Daily Email!
Pretty sure the Mets shot their load anf blew all their IFA money. First they gave that shortstop a record deal even though the top 5 IFAs available got much less. Then with whatever was left they purchased a small village of unranked Dominicans and Venezuelans that were mostly unheard of.
Why would they do that after they drafted Cecchini? They also paid Evans $500K over slot in 2011. This wreaks of DePo not having any confidence in his last two shortstop picks.
Or the philosophy that you draft CF, SS, C and P in the first round.
How does that philosophy apply to Nimmo, and whatever happened to take the best player available in the first round, and fill organizational need with the rest of your picks. This front office has never admitted to any particular philosophy. Their results in 2012 point to something else. You’re barking up the wrong tree.
What do you mean how does it apply to Nimmo? He played all of his games this year in CF. I am confused.
Nimmo was not the highest ranked CF, and if you include SS, P and C, there were over two dozen ranked ahead of him.
How would Jose Fernandez look on the Mets right now? He was selected, and was the highest ranked prospect, after the Mets took Nimmo.
Marlins are now considering him for 2013 rotation and he’s the number one pitching prospect in the game.
He should have been ours.
http://www.fishstripes.com/2012/9/13/3324510/miami-marlins-will-consider-jose-fernandez-for-2013-pitching-rotation
(I okayed leaving the link with Alex)
LOL,
I have no idea why they picked him over other guys that play that spot. It could have been cash or it could have very well been that their scouts loved the kid. What I am saying is that we could see an increase in the drafting of P, SS, C and CF with their top picks.
It’s difficult to believe that Mets scouts loved him because he didn’t play baseball in school. Most of the stuff on Nimmo that was available were showcase videos which he attended some of the top ones, and personal workouts. When the Mets selected him, MLB Network’s, Reynolds, Hart and Mayo, said “who?” They didn’t have any video prepared for the pick and about ten minutes later after two more picks were selected, they showed a video montage of Nimmo of showcase clips from youtube and reported what they could find out about him.
LOL, that’s hysterical.
Didn’t most, if not all, of the mock drafts have Nimmo going in that general pick range that the Mets selected him? How ESPN didn’t have footage prob. cost some intern their job. Poor, poor intern. But, prob. saved said intern from Steve Phillips…
I find it hard to believe that they didn’t know who he was considering that sites like this had this to say before the draft:
http://tampabay.sbnation.com/tampa-bay-rays/2011/5/31/2199013/mlb-amateur-mock-draft-rays-brandon-nimmo-cj-cron
or this from Mets360 before the draft:
“Other players linked to the Mets include pitchers Danny Hultzen (UVA), Taylor Jungmann (Texas), Taylor Guerrieri (HS/South Carolina), Jed Bradley (Ga. Tech) and Josh Stilson (Texas A&M). Other hitters mentioned in conjunction with the Mets are Javier Baez (HS/Florida) and Brandon Nimmo (HS/Wyoming).”
or this from Rubin before the draft:
“Paul DePodesta had extensive comments on the Mets and the draft in this piece I wrote: http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/20635/in-depth-depo-on-draft The Mets pick 13th. Keith Law told me: potential draft picks are LSU outfielder Mikie Mahtook, UCLA right-hander Trevor Bauer, Texas right-hander Taylor Jungmann and Columbia, S.C., high school right-hander Taylor Guerrieri. Baseball America recently did a mock draft and named high school OF Brandon Nimmo as the Mets’ pick.”+
or finally this one:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2011/2611735.html
1. PIRATES: Gerrit Cole.
2. MARINERS: Anthony Rendon.
3. DIAMONDBACKS: Danny Hultzen.
4. ORIOLES: Jed Bradley.
5. ROYALS: Sonny Gray.
6. NATIONALS: Alex Meyer.
7. DIAMONDBACKS: Dylan Bundy.
8. INDIANS: Trevor Bauer.
9. CUBS: Bubba Starling.
10. PADRES: Taylor Jungmann.
11. ASTROS: Francisco Lindor.
12. BREWERS: Taylor Guerrieri.
13. METS: Brandon Nimmo.
Translation: I have no Idea why they picked him but it was a great pick!
Don’t get me started on us missing out on Courtney Hawkins, either…
I would say, that while his stuff sounds impressive, I’m not thrilled with the idea of investing a great deal in a Japanese pitcher. The track record of what is paid for them and the results are not consistently good. At all. Looking back on Dice-K’s contract… shudders. I’m not sure why that is either. Different style of training? Different style of game? No clue.
If the vaults were flowing with big bags o’ money, absolutely, go for this guy. But SP is about the one strength the team has. Now, if this was Cepedes or an Ichiro type, yeah, I can see the value in going after one of those.
HI Satish,
“but I am disappointed because I have heard basically nothing about the Mets trying to court this guy.”
A question – does the elimination of the pacific rim scout have anything to do with this or not?
Always a gamble.
The problem with a stand out kid is that he stands out. There is nothing to compare him to. Viewed through another lens: how many high 90s kids are drafted each year versus how many actually make it? Sure this kid is rather unique for Japan but there are many in the U.S. (and Latin America) who throw just as hard. If I am not mistaken, the Mets presently have a couple of prospects like this in Brooklyn. This kid throws hard but is he really a phenon?
If he is nothing more than a flamethrower, I say pass on him. For the same money, the Mets can sign three guys out of the Dominican who throw just as hard. Show me why he is special other than the fact that he is thinking about passing on Japan and going into the mlb system.
Sorry to make him seem like just a flamethrower. This is another sentence from the linked scouting report. “He featured a fastball ranging from about 145-152 km/h (90-95 mph), a slider around 132-136 km/h (82-84 mph) and curve around 125 km/h (77 mph).” The pitches were all impressive with movement, but he lacked command at some points.
I really have no opinion on this. However, I was upset the Mets didn’t make a move for Chapman or Cepedes.
No way do the Mets get involved with this.
I would assume that as well. Especially considering how many IFA they signed.
Pardon me for the link but NJ did a great job of compiling them.
http://realdirtymets.com/2012/10/15/a-look-at-the-mets-2012-international-signings/
HI TRS,
Thanks for the link, but notice the absence of those from the Pacific Rim. My question was whether or not we were hurting outselves cutting off possible resources from this area of the globe.
Joey, I have no idea what the impact is or what the norm in baseball is so I would be unable to comment.
I believe that the majority of Japanese players go through that pro league, and when they get posted finally they are normal FAs, not IFAs. So that would cut way down on the volume of kids from that country.
Hat tip to MNJ, this is supetb. I just wish I could put my hands on the money involved because some of these kids sign for barely anything. Either way it does seem unlikely that were going to sign all tiny anyway. Joey D, I do not believe the elimination of the pacific scout changed the way the Mets approached Otani, but i cannot speak as to the overall impact
Aside from Rosario they get paid room and board. lol
Promoting the desert much?!?!!??!
He’s welcome, as is any other Mets blogger, to post links here pertinent to the Mets. Back when it was taboo to do this in 2005-2008 and would get you banned elsewhere., a a fan site I always encouraged it. In fact, the Shoutbox, was originally intended to share links. Dave (Retire31), Christian, Sach, all reported links to other Mets news or blog posts. That was back in the good old days of the Shoutbox. R.I.P. Shoutbox.
I think for some reason the posters actually believe, some on both sides, that you and I or MMO and TRDM are at war with each other. That’s not the case at all. If you believed that I was actually here to promote my site I would have been banned long ago. LOL.
Both of our sites started as sites for and by fans so I encourage any links posted on my site that gives the readers what they want. In fact, I think this place as well as mine used to do a morning post linking all kinds of other Mets sites and current stories, at least I know we did.
Yes we did that. It was called Metsmerized Daily News.
Then someone started doing stuff with applesauce, so we stopped.
We stopped because it is such a huge undertaking to weed through all the good and bad articles everyday.
I think for some reason the posters actually believe, some on both sides, that you and I or MMO and TRDM are at war with each other”
that’s like saying the canari island is at war with the USA
Touche, or that the Core actually exist. Both fantasies, right?
Well, the CORE has been here to stay.. copyrights reserve and all.. Meanwhile, your little desert attracks the same 3 or 4 bloggers who got nothing better to talk about than the posters who are here in MMO. go figure!
LOL, the Core, unicorns and the Battle of the 300, all great myths that come from legend.
Now I know you don’t read much at TRDM. There are some lengthy and very good debates that go on over there – especially in the off season.
Now I know you don’t read much at TRDM. There are some lengthy and very good debates that go on over there – especially in the off season”
Really???????????? between who?? out of the 7 people that blog there 4 of them are here 24/7…
I know it’s your purpose to bring the site down, I have no idea why. I also have no idea why I feel compelled to defend your hilariously erroneous statement. Again, most likely due to the hard work and effort my authors have put in for free over the last 3.5 years.
Well, the CORE has been longer than that and evey chance you get you take a shot at me and the group. also, don’t play the victim about me trying to bring your site down when you even said that because of me talking about it more people actually went and visit and even participating in it. if anything, you should be thanking the CORE for promoting your oasis.
And again, don’t play the victim role here, either you or your people always seem to take shots at us and talk about us, including you. the day that stop, we’ll stop too… Don’t pretend to be all sentimental now when we’ve seen how you LOL plenty of times when your guys/gal take shots at us or mock us
LOL, there is a difference Alex. TRDM actually exist and you can prove it exist. The Core? The only time anyone besides you even admits they are in it is when they find it convenient. It’s entire purpose is to divide and separate.
good for you…Like i said, if you care so much why you be here all the time?? Trying to debate anyone who doesn’t agree with your ideas and comments? You should be able to learn how to be more humble, for a guy that is supposed to be teaching kids you should learn that everyone is entitle to their own opinion. While the CORE is just a group name i don’t shamelessly like you plug it in another website if it was a blog.. Again, there’s a reason why you need to plug your site.. The same people i am sure blog there ALL THE TIME… must be kinda boring which is why you need to be here trying to engage with everyone…
Stick, SRT, TRS, MNJ, SALTY who else am i missing? Kingman, Probably wanny.. Who else?? Over and Over and Over the same group of _______ commenting .. BORIIIIIIIIIIIING!!!
Just because you only frequent one blog Alex, doesn’t mean the rest of us do.
I’m a regular poster at several of them.
Where’s this book of rules you’re reading from that if you comment on one blog regularly, you can’t comment on a 2nd or 3rd one?
SRT – It’s not his fault he only goes to one blog. The other ones keep banning him.
Same people commenting… BORING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I don’t tell people where they can blog or where they can’t. just as your leader can tell others to have their opinion once in a while right?? I mean, all the time is your leader’s way or the highway, but at least you guys stick together right??
LOL, Alex. The same people comment here everyday too. You do realize that people come to blogs other than to comment right?
I have no idea what you just said. LOL….
You seem to imply that those of us from the ‘desert’ that comment here daily, shouldn’t be – we should go back to the ‘desert’. My response was along the lines of I frequent several blogs and what’s wrong with that?
Yeah, big different to have more than 40 people come in here that the 7 or maybe 8 that comment there and kiss each other’s ___ all the time..
Hey, all you do is pretend to be best buddies and best mets fans you can be.. and meanwhile, you’re a big Defensive back who act like a bully, just because you don’t curse don’t make it ok, but you wanna shove your beliefs down everyone’s throat, that is why you wanna debate and argue with EVERYONE in here.. at some point can someone please have a different opinion than you without you butting in!?!? my god, dude, i get it, you’re right and everyone else except your oasis buddies are wrong..
And for that defensive back who took at shot at me because i got banned. been here since 2008 (first than you) and don’t need to go elsewhere.. I’m fine here with smart baseball people, too bad most of them have left because somehow Joe D has allowed your complains to ban a few of them and others just plain took off and left..
Hey you know what I always say about being a Defensive Back?
Better than being an Foolish Uneducated Childish Kid-Under Pressure like yourself
Un huh… think of it as you will, for somehow who’s a teacher of a school, you sure have a funny way to act about other people’s thoughts… for once it’s good to laid back and let people comment w/o having a DB like yourself come in and tell them how they’re wrong.. this is MMO, where everyone is entitle to have their own opinion, if you want everybody to worship you and buddy buddy on every comment you make then that’s what the sahara is for..
Sweet, I flew in under the radar!
LOL, don’t start this again Alex. I would have posted MB, AA or MMO itself if the link applied.
Joe D, i was playing with the guy… Noted the big LOL he replied with? Jeez…
Alex, it’s a little bit of a sore spot for me considering that you and Metsie went on your campaign of saying the only reason me or any of my authors were here was to promote my site and started barking something about Google results with no idea how it’s actually calculated.
Hey, as joe D said, you’re allowed.. I just toild you straight up how is just shameless promotion to be here 24/7 and applying your blog to your name by just clicking to it.. But if the owner allows it then who am i to judge otherwise? Go on with the desert as you wish..
Ah so you haven’t changed your opinion and are still on the thought process that we only come here to plug the site that has existed for 3.5 years now. LOL. OK Alex. So in fact you weren’t kidding.
TRS, i was kidding.. I was just pointing out how i said that to you at the time.. but i have since moved on from.. It’s none of my business what you do or don’t do in MMO regarding the plugs of your site..
Correct me if I’m wrong, but the bonus money is just that; bonus money. Just because the Mets may not have as much bonus money left as some other teams, doesn’t mean they don’t have a shot. There are other factors that indicate they won’t get involved, but I digress.
If the Mets have $1 mil left in bonus money, but enough disposable income to offer a huge contract (remember, I digressed), they could still put together a better offer than a team with all their bonus money left, but not as free-spending contract-wise.
Because Otani is 18 and needs to be put through the minor league system, I think after the signing bonus he just joins the teams set of ifas. So I’m under the impression all any team can or will offer him is the signing bonus. A contract would dictate MLB terms, like Cespedes or Chapman. This is by no means my area of expertise, though.
That makes sense.
This makes more sense to me now. I believe you are correct on that bonus money.
I dont trust these Japanese imports. They are always expensive and they are always hit and miss. With the Mets is always miss. Please pass.
I like the idea of the kid, but I think some of the “throw money away” types are kicking themselves over losing out on Cespedes and Aroldis.
Everywhere you go you see Yanks & Dodgers looking at this kid.
Now, I wouldn’t mind him despite the history of japanese pitchers in MLB, the reason being – he is expecting to go to the minors. That means the teams own pitching coaches etc will get to work with him before he hits the big leagues. So you’re getting a package with potential – not a player who has to be on the big league roster in 2013.
There’s also no posting fee since he’s not on any Nippon roster
I’m not an expert but – I believe next year the Mets get more $ to spend in IFA right? I’m pretty sure the 2012 totals were evened out and then starting in 2013 worse teams get more $ than the better teams. Also pretty sure that $ is tradeable as well. IE Mets traded $1m in IFA cap room for manager John Farrell
The kI’d is definitely an intriguing case. But I believe that I would be smart for the mets to go over the IFA tax here. The rigour that high schoolers go through in Japan is compassable to that of some US college. It cannot be denied that he has great stuff. Also, who knows when another young arm out of Japan will do this again. The mets have taken risks with big league talent in the past, so why not take one in the farm system.
[...] Shohei Otani And The Mets | Mets Merized Online Shohei Otani And The Mets "The cap resets on July 2nd of next year (2013) so if the Mets want to sign him, they have to use the money allotted for 2012. Becuse Otani is an IFA, he is limited to the IFA signing bonus cap, which I believe is around $2.9 MM. The Mets have already spent $1.75 MM on Amed Rosario (using the spelling BA released) – a 16-year old shortstop. I do not know much about the Mets IFA pool, but on average, we can guess they have about $1 MM to throw as a bonus to Otani. From there, he would enter the system as any other IFA would at the discretion of the team. A team can go over the cap by up to 5% by paying a tax while going over any further limits the amount of money you can shell out to IFAs in the following years. Of course, this is the Mets, so you should not expect any overages…especially for minor league players, how crazy would that be? Investing over-slot type money for a prospect… The 5% would amount to about 3.075 MM, without including the 75% tax on the overage." [...]