12
2012
Putting A Price On David Wright’s Future
An article by 
A year removed from the departure of fan favorite, Jose Reyes, the Mets find themselves with yet another set of complicated personnel decisions. With the futures of David Wright and RA Dickey on the line this winter, the Mets must weigh all options. Of the two, the most lengthy and certainly most expensive will be the retention of David Wright for what could be the remainder of his career. As a result, this particular set of negotiations appears to have appropriated taken precedence early on this offseason.
With news that the Mets are set to offer Wright a deal worth an estimated $100M that will keep him in Flushing through the 2020 season, it appears the Mets are in fact ready to deal for their all-star third baseman. Unfortunately though, such numbers only begin a set of complicated negotiations that hinge as much on the talent around him, as it does the terms of the deal itself. Yes, it appears by all accounts that $100M will not be nearly enough to ensure that Wright stays put, but where do the negotiations go from here?
Trying to quantify what Wright brings to the table is a pretty easy task. During the 2012 season, which was admittedly better than those that immediately preceded it, David Wright ranked fourth amongst major league third baseman in batting. He posted top ten power numbers at the position and although he posted ten errors on the year, Wright ranked third amongst his peers defensively at the hot corner. So while he may not be the best all-around third baseman in baseball, he is certainly amongst the best. As a result, Wright would find himself as a hot commodity on the open market. Such a situation, at least according to ESPN’s Adam Rubin, could find Wright in line for an eight year deal worth between $160M and $180M. So exactly how much is this going to cost the Mets?
An initial offer of $100M is a decent starting point. Its enough to indicate the Mets are serious while at the same time not too little to be considered a low ball. As I mentioned above, Wright is amongst the best at his position and will need to be compensated as such. Rubin hypothesizes that at a minimum Wright’s deal will have to exceed the six year extension that will ultimately net Nats’ third baseman Ryan Zimmerman $126M over eight years.
Often compared to one another due to their days playing together as youngsters, Zimmerman appears to be an appropriate comparison to Wright. Both hit for average (with Wright’s career numbers slightly better) and decent power (with Zimmerman’s career numbers slightly better). That said, the fact that Wright is two years older should certainly factor in as well. So where does this leave us?
As a result of Wright’s age, I think he’ll find himself saddled with a seven year extension worth and estimated $130M. I chose that number for a couple reasons. The seven year deal will carry Wright through the winter of his 38th birthday and into the onset of his retirement. The price tag, which again I figure to be about $130M, does two things. First and foremost, when combined with the $16M Wright is set to earn next season, it put him in line to earn $146M over the next eight years, thus easily dwarfing the deal of Ryan Zimmerman. Secondly, and maybe most important from a nostalgic stand point, a seven year deal worth $130M will make David Wright the highest paid position player in Mets history.
Such an extension, while certainly not without risk, isn’t so over the top at an average of $18.57M annually that it decimates the team’s ability to add talent around Wright. This should be paramount for Wright in his pursuit to win a championship. Also, in making Wright the highest paid position player in team history, it solidifies him as a sure team hall of famer and appropriately rewards not only his contributions to date, but equally important, his loyalty going forward.
Follow me on Twitter at @RobPatterson83.
About the Author: Rob Patterson
Ultimately, I owe nearly thirty years of Mets related torture to my mother, who is the reason I became a fan. I was too young to remember the 86 run, but hope to see one I'll be able to recall much sooner than later. I enjoy writing about the team and welcome your feedback on my posts. Oh..and I am not with 28!
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 41 | 28 | .594 | - |
| Nationals | 34 | 34 | .500 | 6.5 |
| Phillies | 33 | 37 | .471 | 8.5 |
| Mets | 25 | 39 | .391 | 13.5 |
| Marlins | 21 | 47 | .309 | 19.5 |
Last updated: 06/16/2013
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Nice job here but I must point out one thing. Why should David Wright’s deal dwarf Ryan Zimmerman’s? Zimm is two years younger and you could make a case that he’s better defensively and offensively. I think giving Wright anything more than a $90 million five year deal would be a big mistake that could have unfathomable consequences for the franchise.
Your speculation is more in line with what Wright has in mind, I’m sure.
Don’t think he’s going to settle for 100 MIL.
However this winds up, I hope they get it settled sooner rather than later.
The ownership owes it to him and the fans. Let him lead this team to the next championship. With the amount of young pitching coming up. And the right trades this team will be ready to contend in 2014,maybe next year if Harvey pitches the whole year like he did at the end,and Wheeler doesnt struggle on his promotion. He is an inspiration to all the young players,with his work ethic,and his charactor. those intangibles are part of why you make him a Met for life. Then like every other organization you can put up a David Wright statue.
“The ownership owes it to him and the fans. ”
Why?
Steve, what right trades could make this team ready to content in 2014? Who do you offer for what players? Do you offer Davis, Murphy, Tejada, Niese? Or do you offer the farm in Fulmer, Montero, Flores, Wheeler?
What scares me is that this so called $100MM offer is just a starting point. That should be a take it or leave it offer, not a starting point. And if he doesn’t take it lets start pitting teams against each other in what I hope will be a wonderful bidding war for Wright’s services this offseason. Followed by the announcement that we got a package close to what the Rangers got when they traded Mark Teixeira to the Braves and possibly even more.
Teixeira was traded in July to a team with needs to get to the play offs. So those situations can get you more in a trade.
But a package of some nice prospect who could fill needs for 2014 would be great!!
you can offset that by the fact that in the off season, many more teams are likely to be in the mix (competition is a good thing here!) Plus, a team that gets him now can at least get compensation picks if he leaves as a FA at the end of the year. They don’t with a deadline trade.
also the risk that he decides to have a lousy 1st half instead of just a 2nd half, or he gets hurt (like Reyes) in which case his value plummets.
I have said before that they need to either sign him quickly (if that is the way they want to go) or get aggressive with trading, because I really don’t want to hear about this all winter, and sure as heck not dominating the discussion into next season!
so whatever they do, git ‘er dun ASAP so we can move on.
Seven years of guaranteed money is too long for any player in any sport. The liklihood of injury or significant deteriation in performance level is so high, that there is almost always a huge amount of wasted money. Money that ultimately comes from the fans pocket one way or another.
But since we seem to be stuck in a culture of guaranteed money for as yet unknown performance, I would say five years max, heavily front loaded, with a chance to play for one more contract.
Wishful thinking I know…