22
2012
More On Matt Harvey, Teddy Stankiewicz Will Be Eligible For 2013 Draft
An article by 
Last week, the notable statistician and baseball historian Bill James, answered a few questions in a Mailbag Post for Baseball Think Factory. One question in particular had to do with own Matt Harvey, and I must say he isn’t as excited about Harvey as some of us Mets fans are.
Matt Harvey debuted this year and struck out 10.6 batters per nine innings and put up a 2.72 ERA in 60 innings. How likely is a pitcher with a debut like that at the age of 23 to become a great pitcher?
It’s fairly long odds. I identified all pitchers since 1900 who were 22-24 years old, made 5 to 15 starts and less than 25 appearances, had no previous major league history or very limited major league history, and who were at least +10 vs. the league in strikeouts (10 more strikeouts than a league-average pitcher) and positive overall performance.
There are only 29 such pitchers in major league history before Harvey (I had expected it to be more) but none of the 29 became a great pitcher.
The ten best pitchers in the group were Danny Darwin, Bill Doak, Barry Zito, Schoolboy Rowe, Whitlow Wyatt, Stu Miller, Bob Turley, Denny Lemaster, Eric Hanson, Arthur Rhodes and Dave Righetti (OK, that’s 11).
Most young pitchers get hurt. Most young pitchers who look like they might be great, aren’t great. Ten starts isn’t enough to get real excited about.
Not so sure I share his skepticism. I’m also not sure if he got to see Matt Harvey pitch in any of those ten games. What impressed me just as much as what he accomplished statistically, was Harvey’s presence and demeanor. The way he would bear down when he needed that big out after allowing runners on base. There was something right off the bat that was different about Harvey as compared to fellow first-rounder Mike Pelfrey when he first came up; Harvey knew how to get himself out of jams and didn’t implode. He has great composure and appears to have the savvy of a veteran instead of the jitters of a rookie.
Also, Baseball America are doing the Draft Reports Cards for all 30 teams. Regarding the Mets they made these notes:
The Mets added three solid up-the-middle players at the top of their draft. On the downside, however, Stankewicz was the highest-selected prep pick in the entire draft not to sign.
Best Pure Hitter: SS Matt Reynolds (2) has a short stroke and advanced plate discipline. His swing and approach should allow him to be a line-drive machine and post solid on-base percentages.
Best Fastball: RHP Matt Koch (3) shows the best pure velocity, running his fastball up to 96 mph.
Best Athlete: Cecchini’s sum is greater than his parts, as his tools play up because of his instincts and work ethic. He’s a solid athlete who can impact the game from the batter’s box, in the field or on the basepaths.
The One Who Got Away: The Mets never offered RHP Teddy Stankiewicz (2) the full value for his draft slot. Originally committed to Arkansas, he opted to attend Seminole State (Okla.) JC so he’d be draft-eligible in 2013.
Read the full article at BA.
I just learned something. If you may remember when I spoke about the Stankiewicz negotiations with Teddy’s dad and cousin, I reported that he would be going to Seminole and not Arkansas which was being reported. What I didn’t know and what I failed to ask them was why he made the switch. Now we know. Stankiewicz could be one of the first five picks in the 2013 Draft next year. You already knew my feelings on the Mets 2012 Draft, needless to say it keeps looking worse from my vantage point.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Mets | 27 | 41 | .397 | 13.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 49 | .310 | 20.0 |
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Knowing how often this FO flip flops it wouldn’t suprise me at all to see them take him in the 1st and pay him more than he would have gotten last year…
That’s assuming he’ll still be their at pick #13.
The Giants have never won a game 7, The Cardinals are like 11-4 in game 7s or thereabouts.
The Giants play The Cards tonight. Matt Cain is pitching against Kyle Lohse.
Same type of template. Interesting stats but they really mean nothing and translate into nothing. Matt Harvey’s progress is based on no type of history whatsoever but it’s fun to look at the comparisons that’s all.
If Lohse pulls off a big win tonight, he is going to get a nice boost to his contract negotiation this off season.
Joe D – 2 quick questions
-So Stanky was never offered his slot value right? Don’t you think there’s got to be SOMETHING with that? Out of curiousity, what did Matt Reynolds sign for?
-Why would opting to go to a JuCo increase his draft value? I get that going to Arkansas means he’d have to stay there for 2 years, but it also means he’d have a chance to prove he’s more big league ready as time goes on in college. Going to a JuCo where the talent pool is thin, may not trick Scouting execs in the way he plans?
I assume it means he really wants to get his MLB career started ASAP. though I thought going to 4 year college meant he was out for 3 years (until after Junior year?) not 2, but I don’t claim to be an expert on the draft rules!
though if he wanted to sign that bad, he could have taken the slightly below slot deal and already have money in the bank and a year under his belt.
Very odd from both sides, that neither one would budge over that small of a difference, especially if he is angling to get drafted again.
anyway, not sure if there is a real reason to expect he will jump from 2nd round to top 5 after 1 year of Juco.
College players become eligible after their junior year.
High Schoolers so long as they don’t play at a college and Juco can go whenever
I don’t know him from a hole in the wall but I guess my point is, if he was passed by so much in 2012, why do we jump to say he’d go Top 5 in 2013 simply because he’s going Juco?
I’d think he’d get more work at a quality baseball program like Arkansas. Why can’t he wait 3 years? That would worry me… I mean I get he wants to play pro ball, but technically he had his chance right?
So what will change from june 2012 to june 2013 that suddenly skyrockets his value to be a Top 5 pick?
“Very odd from both sides, that neither one would budge over that small of a difference, especially if he is angling to get drafted again.”
Makes me think that money wasn’t the issue. These deals are usually figured out prior to the draft itself. There was a rumor that Stankiewicz “adviser” tried to squeeze some money out of the deal at the last minute or did something to piss off the FO.
Maybe he got wind his “advisee” was going to skyrocket in value and went to sink the deal.
Or that is complete crap based on hearsay.
The front office did not call Teddy for the 14 days leading up to the deadline. They were told that they would consider the $60K and get back to him and never did. Lets not make this out to be more than what it is.
So, he did try to get more than the original agreed upon amount.
Yes, $60k is stupid to quibble over. Even when you are in extreme cost cutting mode, it makes no sense.
That is why I think there is something we don’t know.
Huh?
Donal read carefully I’ll simplify the best I can.
They wanted slot. That’s all.
The Mets offered $600K and they said it will take slot to sign.
The Mets said we’ll get back to you and never did.
That’s the entire negotiation for a player selected in the second round.
The kid was heartbroken, he couldn’t wait to put on a Mets uniform. His father said he was devastated. “Why did they select him if this was how they were going to treat him?”
“All we said was pay our son what the slot guideline is.”
Unbelievable. And this is coming from a orginazation that’s allegedly trying to rebuild. SMH.
Just screams of a previous meeting and agreement of taking under slot that backfired.
After all the bitching about us not going overslot enough in previous years, why the hell would any drafted kid take an underslot payment after being drafted in the 2nd round?
What were they trying to save the money for because it sure wasn’t the second half of the draft class.
Do you really believe less than the minor league minimum salary was the deal breaker?
Every player the Mets signed received slot or less and not a penny more.
As for Stanky look at the mock drafts, look at other past unsigned players like Price, Drew, etc. They already had the attention and now gain more experience to showcase the talents. Scouts already weighed in and loved him. What do you mean so many people passed him by? He was in everyone’s top 100 and considered the best prep pitcher out there. You think this will reduce his standing somehow?
In November, once everyone leans Stanky is draft eligible, lets see where the top Draft Sites have him in their mocks. I bet Top 10 and definite first rounder. Absolute certainty he’ll get more than the $680K the Mets could have gotten him for.
Reportedly Corey Oswalt, Tomas Nido and Chris Flexen signed over slot.
Corey Oswalt – Pool amount was $146,600 he reportedly signed for $475,000.
Tomas Nido – Pool amount was $136,900 he reportedly signed for $250,000.
Chris Flexen – Pool amount was $100,000 he reportedly signed for $374,400.
I understand perfectly. Same as most good free agents. He didn’t want to play for the Mets, especially if they’re going to low-ball him on their offer.
The Mets suits talk a big game about building the system, but the actions come up a tad short. Not signing the #2 pick, and losing the AAA musical chairs and winding up with Vegas are two BIG actions that contradict “the plan”.
Why guys do not sign is often a mystery. There are always two sides to it. Perhaps the Mets not offering enough was the problem. Or perhaps he never really intended on signing once he was told he could become a high first rounder the following year. Also, as we all know, he might be one that got away or could be the multitude of picks who never makes it anywhere.
The baseball draft is a crapshoot no matter how much science someone tries to apply. There is no way to tell, but for a select few, who will make it. Did anyone see Edgin making the big leagues in his 3rd professional season when he was drafted in the 30th round. That means he was passed over 800+ times before the Mets selected him. And what about the other 800+ players who were chosen ahead of Edgin? Where are they now? A handful made it already like Harvey; some more will make it ensuing years; and the vast percentage will not see one big league inning. The teams that many like to cite as being good with their farms have had the following appear in the big leagues from the 2010 draft: Braves 1; Cards, Giants, and Rays 0.
By the way, the Braves had 2 players from the 2009 draft appear in the big leagues: their first round pick was Mike Minor and their 50th rd selection was Josh Edgin who obviously did not sign. So, thus far, it appears the Braves missed the boat on that one.
That’s true, but I spoke with the Stankiewicz family and I was told about how the negotiations went and that $60K was the deal breaker for the Mets. All they wanted was slot. I also asked the Mets if they wanted to add anything and they declined. That said, I have an interview with Paul DePodesta coming up and I expect to bring this up to him as well a few other things about the latest draft.
Joe D, rubin asked him about that and here’s what he said:
“http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/51156/mets-pass-on-signing-second-rounder
That’s not an explanation, just a summary of what happens as a result of not signing him.
So they didn’t sign this draft pick in order to improve their chances of signing better draft picks the next year? Is that what Depo said in Alex’s post?
Maybe after getting a 2nd look they decided that they would rather have next year’s pick?
It makes no sense that neither side would budge for 60K, there has to be more to the story.
It could very well be. The Mets have been known to go cheap when it comes to the draft. They also took that same approach when dealing with the international scene. Alderson stated that he wanted to change that and the $1.9M for Rosario seems to be showing that. But then again, this is the Mets and the Wilpons seemed to cut corners at times.
I agree with the above statements: for $60K its odd that they couldnt come to an agreement.
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I think it’s fascinating (actually sad and pathetic) that every time I ban someone from the shoutbox or get rid of it like I did today, there’s a subsequent attack on our server. I’m sorry for the inconvenience everyone.
I’ll just say Harvey = beast mode
Off Topic: As far as looking ahead to any Mets related news. Rubin tweeted earlier that “Jeff Wilpon, Sandy Alderson, Terry Collins, John Ricco, Jon Miller and Dick Scott will be in Las Vegas Thurs. to discuss new AAA affiliation”.
https://twitter.com/AdamRubinESPN/status/260448789901492224
Interview with DePo? Nice. Well I hope when you bring it up, you kindly ask why they never talked to the kid for two weeks. We’ve all heard their side as to why they didn’t sign him. Honestly, it had to be more about not having an extra 660,000 dollars despite plenty of allotment space left. Now, the question is why they even drafted the kid and wasted a year of development for the lad and why they never got in touch with him for 14 days.
The front office has done a fairly lousy job with the farm, aside from getting Wheeler and drafting Fulmer. Sandy pays plenty of lip service to the minors, but they don’t draft like they really want to improve.
Joey Gallo says “Hi”.
Don’t worry Joe, you’ll never get an explanation.
He may go in the first round that’s true, but he was not the best prep pitcher at all. Lance McCullers, Lucas Giolito, and Max Fried have that distinction. Plus, the Yanks first pick was a prep pitcher as well.
The Mets draft strategy headed into the draft was to draft certain players early that they felt they could sign for underslot including Teddy S. and even Cecchini, Plawecki, Reynolds and Koch for that matter to create extra $$$ to take some overslot shots on some young arms later in the draft- Chris Flexen, Corey Oswalt and Logan Taylor and Teddy S. was just a victim of that stategy. I also think after signing Flexen, who is fairly regarded and Oswalt and Taylor. the Mets just said ehh with Teddy S. Also, the Mets and Wilpons and now their new minority partners did lose over 23MM on Mets operations this year, so the Mets spent 800K less than their draft allotment. The Wilpons do have to account to their minority partners and don’t want them asking for all of their money back in 5 years.