16
2012
MMO Mailbag: Should We Target Toronto’s Travis d’Arnaud?
An article by 
We received this email from one of our readers, doekie.
Let’s assume nothing will be done and the arbitration players will be back. Shoppach will be back and some kind of right handed OF. I liked your thoughts on the Rockies and Mets trade.
How about Toronto? Their lineup could use some lefthanded hitters. And they also need starters. So what would you guys think of a trade involving Murphy (as a lefthanded 2B and 3B back up), Duda (as a lefthanded 1B, LF and DH back up) Dickey and his personal catcher (who happens to be also lefthanded)? That’s 3 young and under control for a while.
Would Toronto give up D’Arnaud (who is obviously blocked by Arencibia), Marisnick (with Bautista, Rasmus and Gose) and Nicolino, Sanchez and Syndergaard?
D’Arnaud would solve the catching problems. Marisnick could be ready for 2014. And perhaps Den Dekker can cut his SO next year so you could end up with Marisnick, Kirk and Den Dekker as your 2014 OF.
So far the Mets got D’Arnoud for Thole, can try Valdespin at 2nd and replace Mejia for Dickey. And you save $5 million on Dickey. Perhaps you can get Hairston for 2 years for that money?
In July hopefully Wheeler and Familia are ready to go so you can do another trade involving Santana and $$ like the Mets did with Beltran getting an OF stud prospect.
My main goal here was to get an infusion of young cheap pitching depth. So you can start to trade away proven, young major league ready pitchers for even more prospects, preferable in July when the need is high for some teams and that would get more..
I appreciate the efforts here. The Hot Stove season is a great time of year because it inspires creativity and a lot of “what if” deals.
One of the easiest traps we fall into as fans is crafting deals that may not interest the other team as much as we think. You did your best to consider the needs of the Blue Jays as you see them.
First, I don’t see the Blue Jays giving up on Travis d’Arnaud for anything other than a frontline starter. Remember, they gave up Roy Halladay in the deal that brought him here. To say he’s blocked by J.P. Arencibia isn’t true in my view. If anything, the Blue Jays would look to trade Arencibia to try and get something of value and hang on to d’Arnaud.
Jim Bowden of ESPN.com said this recently regarding the two catchers
“Travis d’Arnaud, Toronto Blue Jays: The Rangers scouts love this top catching prospect the Blue Jays acquired in the Roy Halladay deal a few years ago. Toronto probably is more interested in dealing J.P. Arencibia, who might make some sense in a lesser deal if Texas can’t re-sign Napoli.”
Also, consider that d’Arnaud torn his PCL in June which knocked him out for the rest of the year. So I do think Toronto will be very careful with dealing either of their young catchers until they know how d’Arnaud heals from that injury.
I’m not going to sit here and pretend I know much about Marisnick, Nicolino, Sanchez and Snydergaard. What I do know is that you’re essentially asking the Blue Jays to give you their top 4 prospects and another top 10 in Sanchez.
Regardless of the package they are getting back – that’s a lot to ask for.
Your package that you’re sending out to me makes this potential deal far too one sided.
You’re offering Dickey, Duda, Thole, Murphy and you’re getting back 4 of their top 10, and their 9th best prospect.
I’d love to sit here and tell you I think our players are worth that – but I don’t.
For starters, Dickey’s value will vary from team to team. He could win the Cy Young this year, and there will still be teams that avoid him like the plague. Plus, you have to consider his contract situation. What is in it for Toronto right now to take Dickey and lose 2 starting pitching prospects?
Duda and Murphy I believe have limited trade value. They are both defensive liabilities in the grand scheme of things. Murphy shows little to no power, which doesn’t translate well in the AL (especially if you have a weak glove), and Duda proved to take a step back rather than forward.
Thole has absolutely no value, especially if his greatest achievement to date is being Dickey’s personal catcher.
Lastly, with regards to your Johan Santana trade value – I think that depends entirely on how he pitches and how desperate another team is for an arm like him. There’s no way you can bank on dealing him for anything of value until you see how he’s pitching in the early 2013
In the minor leagues, the Mets are in a position where the only untouchable is Wheeler. Based on his ceiling, and also the circumstances for which they got him. In the major leagues, the only untouchable is Harvey.
If you wanted to make a big splash in the trade market and fill multiple holes – you’re going to have to look at dealing Jon Niese, David Wright (extended), and then you look at kids like Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia, Wilmer Flores, Brandon Nimmo, Cesar Puello, and Reese Havens as potential prospects who could net you quality “now” talent depending on the opposing team’s needs and opinions on those prospects.
When looking for potential trade partners as a fan, it’s safer in my opinion to appear willing to OVER pay rather than UNDER.
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
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While I’m certain the proposed deal is crazy lopsided in the Mets favor, the framework should be OK. Toronto want’s a front line starter. Mets have Dickey. If you could pare this down to Dickey, Duda (considering Lind is on the way out) and a throw in for D’acatcher and an OF prospect/MLB ready type, I think that could work. And if not D’agastino, then JP and get a much higher OF prospect type. I don’t know the BJs prospects well enough (IE, at all) to know who is near ready and who is worth trading for. Might work.
TX – thanks for reading and commenting! I recently read that the Blue Jays may actually look to move Encarnacion over to 1B permanently. He played over 60 games there in place of Lind. So I’m not sure there “need” for a guy like Duda is really all that strong.
Agreed. He is nothing more than a throw in to about any other team except the Mets. He is best served as a 1B/DH type, and considering how much cheaper he would be vs. Lind, I figured it may be a filler piece that helps/fits. The true value here is Dickey.
Catching is so putrid around the league that any catching prospect that is considered a top prospect is going to cost an arm and a leg. I can’t see how they wouldn’t open discussions with either Harvey, Wheeler or Niese. Not saying it can’t be downgraded but they aren’t trading him for a group of misfits and a rental. Sorry
as always TRS, thanks for reading and commenting. I agree with you – you’re not getting a young catcher on the cheap. Nobody is going to just hand us a catcher. Remember D’Arnaud was who they wanted for Halladay.
David Wright and Dickey for d’Arnaud and whatever else they want to give us.
The pocketed $20MM can be reinvested in the team to upgrade the OF. At 3B, I’d keep Lutz or Satin for half the season in 2013 and then hand the job to Wilmer for good come July.
d’Arnaud, Ike, Murphy, Tejada and Wilmer is a great young infield. the $50MM coming off the books after next season is more than enough to fill any holes for 2014.
LOL, the Blue Jays are not trading for Wright to replace Lawrie and most likely have no intentions of trading for Dickey either.
I am intirgued by the idea of trading Wright if they can get a team to cave and give up a load back, and grooming WIlmer to come in mid season.
I think he is going to have a monster year in AAA (already starting in winter ball). I just hope it is not for some other team!
But again, people are barking up the wrong trees with him. I keep hearing Toronto, Texas, etc. Those places don’t work. They have no need for Wright and certainly wouldn’t trade talented players to get one year of him.
Think teams like Atlanta, Philly, Reds, Dodgers, Giants, Dbacks, and Angels. Did I miss anyone?
Boston? Or does the middlebrook guy play 3B?
Yanks have a corpse over at 3B, but I think they are stuck with him… And I don’t think even Sandy has the stones to trade Wright to the Stankees (FA, another story), evenif the Wilpons would let him.
Yanks are really stuck with Arod over there and will just sign a caddy like Chavez again.
Boston? I think they like Middlebrooks a lot.
White Sox depending on Youk’s option, Cleveland if Terry is lookin for a new identity there
A) I think you’re asking to get ripped off tremendously
B) I think you underestimate the value the Blue Jays think Brett Lawrie has to their franchise. They don’t need Wright.
but thanks for joining this conversation!
If the Mets trade Wright and Dickey they need to get back “boatloads of Federal Money”… I mean uh lots of players filing multiple spots. You aren’t getting that by trading them together.
I think the prime market for Dickey would be a contending team like Cincinnati, Texas, or California that could afford to part with 2 or 3 young players to get him, not Toronto which is almost as far away from winning their division as the Mets are and would certainly value their young players over Dickey..What do you think of Devin Mesoraco, Chris Heisey, and Logan Ondrusek for Dickey ? I ‘m not sure if the Mets would do that, but I think it is a reasonable expectation of the kind of offer they might receive if they let it be known Dickey is available.
Shoot for that Billy Hamilton kid if you are going Cincy’s way.
hey Barry, thanks for reading and commenting!
I think a lot of consideration for Dickey in terms of a trade will be based on his contract. I imagine the Mets are making or have made calls to MLB teams to gauge interest in Dickey. So we won’t really know how others feel unless a trade is done. For me, the Reds don’t match up because first of all, they don’t need Dickey to win. Cueto-Latos-Bailey-Leake is good enough for them I think. They could go get a guy like Greinke and not have to give up prospects.
Secondly, they losing Ludwick in the OF and Rolen at 3B plus Hanigan behind the dish will be 32. I don’t know if they are in a position to deal young talent that they may need within the next 2 years for Dickey who is a wildcard.
Who knows though… some team could absolutely love Dickey.
Any trade proposal that includes moving RA Dickey is ridiculous! He was our best pitcher this year. He’s a leading candidate for the 2012 NL Cy Young Award and you want to trade him for some unproven catching prospect!? No way! I’m fine with trading Duda, and maybe Thole away for this catcher, but I’d consider RA Dickey untouchable if I were running the Mets. Heck, if I had Dickey on my Fantasy Baseball team, I wouldn’t trade him for anyone (except maybe Justin Verlander). If you want to move Dickey, talk to the Tigers about Verlander, or to the Giants about Cain or Lincecum. To me, RA is in that category. That’s the caliber of player I’d want in return for RA Dickey.
Javi – hey thanks for participating in the discussion.
The problem is Dickey is a 37 year old athlete who relies on an 80+ mph fb to make his knuckler most effective.
He’s not going to pitch forever, and unfortunately this isn’t fantasy baseball. If you called the Tigers or Giants for Verlander/Cain for Dickey – they’d laugh you off the phone and rightfully so.
Nobody is denying or taking anything away from Dickey’s 2012 campaign. But you have to look down the road and consider how long will he be as effective as he was in 2012? If you think the next 5 years he can replicate this year – you’d be in the minority.
If d’Arnaud didn’t kill his knee and the Blue Jays offered him for Dickey – i’d take it assuming the framework of the other parts made sense.
Dickey is very likeable and at the end of the day I feel he will be signed to a 2 yr extension with the Mets. But he cannot be untouchable based on age-repertoire being unpredictable.
OK, maybe I exaggerated a little bit with the great pitchers I compared RA to, but my point remains that he has been the Mets ace for 2 years now and is coming off a career year. Why would Mets fans want him traded? Would you like it if the Mets traded him and he ends up winning 3 or 4 CYA’s with his new team, while the guys we traded him for end up like J. Bay? I’m sure this blog would be full of livid Mets fans ripping SA if this were to happen.
I think the premise behind trading Wright or Dickey is how do you infuse multiple talented players into the roster quickly without trading someone that has trade value?
He’s a 38 year old speed knuckleballer who has had 2 very decent seasons and 1 spectacular season. The farm system’s strength is pitching and the club lacks positional talent. Dickey’s value is quite high, he’s very affordable for next year and he most likely isn’t going the route of Jamie Moyer (pitching until he’s 82 and a half). It’s the perfect sell high scenario. Trade from a strength to fill a weakness.
D’Arnaud is a nice prospect, but I can’t see Toronto dealing him. What about a trade offer of Jon Niese to Cleveland for catcher Carlos Santana?
Matt – as always I appreciate you reading and commenting!
I like where your head is at. I personally think the guy to trade is Niese. I value him tremendously, but I think if the Mets feel they have depth at SP then besides Harvey, Niese brings back the most value.
It’d be real hard to do – but if the price is right you could figure out a way to fix a few holes just by dealing Niese.
Yeah, I mean, we all know Santana would be tough for Cleveland to trade. But they need pitching badly and Niese would help them. Santana had a down year for him, but he is young and an elite catcher. I do like D’Arnaud a lot too.
I agree they would part with Arencibia before d’Arnaud.
Mitch, i’d thank you for responding and reading – but as you know we are sworn blogemies (blog enemies)
The Padres got Yasmani Grandal, Yonder Alonso, Edison Volquez, and another young relief pitcher for just Mat Latos. Grandal was a top catching prospect and Alonso a top first base prospect.
Yes, young catchers are at a premium, but even more so are starting pitchers. Young, controllable, cheap starting pitchers. The Mets should be able to get something damn good for a twenty game winner in Dickey. He ain’t young, but he’s cheap.
Truth – Thanks for your views, always welcome here.
Let me ask you this:
Mat Latos was 24 years old when the Padres dealt him. He hadn’t even started arbitration yet. If young, controllable pitchers are at a premium then why would Dickey get the Mets similar value than the Padres got for Latos? Also consider Dickey is a free agent after 2013. So control-ability is an issue no?
That’s where I get confused by your response.
If anything your valuable info regarding the Latos trade makes a better case for trading Niese.
So let me ask you this: Would you trade Niese for the exact same package the Padres got (just based on the talent alone)?
Does anyone know how serious D’Arnaud’s PCL tear was, or just how serious a PCL tear is? Never know what effect it might have on the everyday squatting rigors of a catcher in the long term. Afterall this is the Mets we’re talking about. Wouldn’t be the first time they got damaged goods.
MetsWatchman – hey thanks for jumping into the chat!
I read that d’Arnaud did NOT require surgery which is always a plus. He did it while sliding into 2nd.
Both the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) and medial collateral ligament (MCL) avoided any damage – so because of that Toronto was optimistic that he’d be okay. Obviously anything can happen but it was the best case scenario for that type of injury.
At the end of August the Blue Jays said his rehab was going just fine and they were pleased with his progress. He was performing baseball activities but not game ready… originally they said he’d go to AFL but he is not on the roster as of now.
Personally,I believe the rumors that Ike Davis will be traded as ludicrous, you don’t replace his power production,and is one of the more defensively sound first basemen in the league… As for trading w/ Toronto, I’d like to see Mr. Arencibia be a Met next season, I’d have no problem letting go of Duda and maybe Mejia. It’d be worth it.
Richard – Your participation is highly appreciated today – thank you.
I agree with you on Ike. Unless you’re getting a big haul for him, I can’t really see why they’d trade him. I cannot agree with other people who say the reason to deal him is to keep Duda. Duda is not as good as Ike.
I am not against trading Ike if you tell me the ends justify the means but I doubt it will happen to be honest.
Thole played 798.1 innings…had 18 WP…18 PB…and a good portion of them were catching a knuckleballer…
JP had 800 inning…had 9 PB…and 31 WP….
JP allowed the 4th most SB in the AL…
JP had the 3rd highest amount of PB in the AL
JP allowed the most WP of any Catcher in the AL
Offensively, JP did have some pop…but he hit .233 and had the 3rd highest amount of strikeouts in the AL…
Sorry…but i think u draft for talented catchers and properly groom them…no one is going to give u a stud catcher in 2012…
Wild Pitches are the catchers fault?
some probably are, in that a better catcher will actually block many of them.
same as errors on a throw. If you have a stone hands 1B, your 3B will have a lot more throwing errors than if Keith say is over there scooping everything out of the dirt!
Why is Juan Centeno not considered an option?
http://mets.scout.com/a.z?s=228&p=2&c=1219590&ssf=1&RequestedURL=http%3a%2f%2fmets.scout.com%2f2%2f1219590.html
Met fans are absolutely hilarious..now every catcher has to be Mike Piazza…
Yadier Molina had no power in the minors…
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=molina001yad
I say give Juan Centeno a shot
Your link tells you why:
” Even though he is still not ready for Citifield, B-Mets manager Pedro Lopez and hitting coach Luis Natera both believe Centeno is the most improved player on the team.”
Also, using the handy dandy Minor League to MLB conversion tool you could EXPECT:
.217 .261 .257 .518 with 3 extra base hits in 288 AB.
Again, not saying the guy is trash but he certainly isn’t a current option.
http://mlsplits.drivelinebaseball.com/mlsplits/mlecalc
Centano seems to be the new poster boy for the debate on if you can carry a defense only /no hit catcher, like teams used to in the old days (probably when you also carried no hit SSs!)
But even those guys who are defense only can get their OPS above .600. That’s putrid. Again, I got high hopes for the kid but those offensive stats are currently not anywhere near MLB level.
I don’t think anyone expects that kind of bat (Piazza) but there needs to be some middle ground in between Castillo/Thole and big Mike!
Fan base just shell shocked after watching so many black holes I guess.
I would say if you could “guarantee” he would put up roughly Murphy #s (.280/10/60 or so) with playing solid D and keeping the pitchers happy, fans would do cart wheels.
Thole’s minor league stats: .288 .375 .381 .756
Juan Centeno minor league stats: .266 .323 .323 .646 through just AA. Again, just not ready offensively. In fact promoting him could actually crush him.
thats a bit misleading
Centeno sucked from age 17-18-19…
age 20 – he hits .320
age 21 – he hits .318
age 22 – he hits .285
his manager calls him the most improved player on the entire roster and says he isnt ready YET
I think a commitment to the FUTURE would entail having a veteran catcher start and having a young catcher learn under him.
The Nats did this with Wilson Ramos and Pudge in 2011
The Yanks did this with Girardi and Posada in 2000
The Mets sorta did that with Barajas and Thole in 2010
I believe the Cardinals did this with Molina as well in his rookie season…
We are NOT going to be winning the WS and we should STOP pretending we are…
Commit to the future…put people in the best place to grow and MOVE FORWARD…
this half-ass method of trying to appear committed to winning 81 games and teasing fans with a 2nd wc spot will just keep us shooting for 3rd place til the day Romney’s kids are running for President
I could live with the weak bat if he improves our up the middle defense and does a good job shutting down the opposition..I think in time he can learn to hit…
again..im not saying GIVE HIM THE JOB…I’m saying a spring training invite and a chance to make the roster
Another Question:
Is Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy and some of the other defensively challenged mets playing Winter Ball this year ?
did not hear about those guys, but most players with that level of ML experience don’t. They just work out on their own.
Jesse
I never said Dickey would get a similar package
As for Niese, yes, in one second. We immediately replace Niese with Volquez, Thole with Grandal, Davis with Alonso. Then I trade Davis.
Why in God’s name would San Diego ever trade Yasmani Grandal?
Enough about the Mets catching prospects guys. Truth is, they don’t have any. Cam Maron is Josh Thole II. Centeno can’t hit. Plawecki is overrated.
I cringe when I read posts about Flores being the next 3rd baseman. I think the player development staff already know he’ll be too much of a defensive liability at 3rd. I’ve watched him play many games in his 2 and 1/2 years at high A St. Lucie and saw him transition from SS to 3rd. Haven’t seen any of his games at 2nd though, but thus far he’s posted his best fielding pct. at 2nd base, if that means something. I think he’ll wind up at 2B or possibly 1B. One thing is for sure, he’s going to play somewhere probably real soon because the kid can hit.
Plawecki is a legit prospect. I went to several Cyclone games. I really like the way he presents behind the plate. Plus, he has such a mature approach at the plate: patient, short stroke with some pop. He needs to be more aggressive when the count is in his favor – but he sees lots of pitches and hits the ball hard to all fields.
Love him. But in the best case scenario he’s 3+ years away.
The other possible Mets catching prospect is Tomas Nido, though he’s far (FAR!) more raw and even further away.
Like I mentioned previously, I’d rather make a play for Carlos Santana. The Indians are in complete disarray and need pitching in the worst way.
Stumbled upon this while searching for Jays talk and I thought I could help shed some light on Blue Jays prospects since I’m a die hard. It is true, D’arnaud is going to cost an arm and a leg like mentioned and the Blue Jays are extremely high on him. The problem for the Jays is that Arencibia has developed such a leadership role within the clubhouse, which makes it very difficult for them to trade as well. My guess would be Arencibia would be moved before D’arnaud. Also, D’arnaud was actually not the main target when we acquired him in the Roy Halladay deal, it was Kyle Drabek we were after. Kyle Drabek has had some set backs with Tommy John but is projected to be a front line starter within a few years. D’arnaud was just bonus when he broke out with the Jays since the trade. Also, I would find it very difficult for Toronto to let go of Nicolino, Sanchez or Syndergard since these are our main/top pitching prospects. I could potentially see the Blue jays packaging 1, maybe 2, of these pitchers along with arencibia for front line of the rotation help
Thanks for commenting. I know you may not know a lot about Mets prospects but What do you feel would be a fair deal from the Mets for either catcher and do they even Have anything that would interest a Jay’s fan?
Jays do need more left handed bats in the line up and first base is still some what of a question mark for us so Lucas Duda is a potential player the Jays could target. I know last year the Jays were also interested in Niese as a middle of the rotation starter so there are some potential trade chips we could deal.