15
2012
MMO Mailbag: Is Carlos Beltran A Hall Of Famer?
An article by 
I received this email from one of our longtime readers who you all know as Markcomic1.
This question popped into mind as I was doing my usual joke writing, baseball reading and news trolling. Carlos Beltran is sneaking up on 2000 hits for his career, he has over 330 home runs and over 300 steals with a decent .280 plus batting average lifetime. Is he a potential Hall of Fame candidate and why? Also what five peers (same age/time of service, etc. would you say are comparable to him and are they HOF worthy as well?
Personally, if you ask me, he is on the cusp. The 300-plus in both steals and homers help and he was a plus defender until his knees started to go. But the injuries, and the Mets collapses hurt him a bit.
Also to me he has to have close to or over 400 home runs plus at least 2,500 hits to seal it. Though he does have one of the higher stealing percentages and a pretty darn good .360 OBP for his career. I just don’t know..
So I figured I would pose it to you guys, being that you’re my favorite site and hope you all get together and write about it and post what you guys think and feel on the matter.
Thanks,
Mark Anthony Ramirez AKA Markcomic1
I asked a few of our writers to comment and this is what they had to say.
Jessep
No – very good player but not an all-time great. At 35 years old he’s struggling for consistency in an entire season, and if he retired today he’d still fall short of Bernie Williams on the ballot and I don’t think Williams is a Hall of Famer.
His fielding was very good, but only good enough for 3 Gold Gloves – which isn’t enough to carry you into the Hall of Fame. Based on his 2nd half decline in 2012, I’d say next year will be his last as a starter. If that’s the case, his resume for the Hall will be roughly 2,200 hits, 350 HR, 1,330 RBI, and maybe 315 SB, 0 MVP, 3 Gold Gloves.
That’s a nice career and nothing to be ashamed of, but it’s not a Hall of Fame career
XtreemIcon
If Beltran’s career ended today, the no, he’s not a HOFer. Consider the following comparison of career center fielders.
Player: .297/.381/.477/.858, 287 HRs, 1257 RBI, six top-20 MVP finishes (two top-10), five AS games, four Gold Gloves, one Silver Slugger
Beltran: .282/.360/.496/.856, 334 HRs, 1243 RBI, five top-20 MVP finishes (one 21st place, two top-10), seven AS games, three Gold Gloves, two Silver Sluggers
Those numbers are about as comparable as can be. The player is Bernie Williams, universally regarded as a very good player, but not a Hall of Famer. If Beltran were to find a way for his knees to allow him three more years to hit 400 home runs, crack 1,500 RBI, but not drop below .280 average and .360 OBP, then I think he has a legitimate case, but that’s asking a lot of knees that have hampered him considerably already.
Mitch Petanick
Carlos Beltran is not a Hall of Famer – he was a very good player during his generation, but when I think Hall of Fame, I think of iconic players. Look at the list of some of the guys that are in the Hall and played centerfield – Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio Ty Cobb, Duke Snider. Seeing Kirby Puckett getting inducted makes one think that Beltran’s numbers are good enough to get him in, but Kirby Puckett should not have gotten in. I mean, I honestly feel like Eric Davis was a better player than Puckett and Beltran, and he isn’t in consideration for the hall. The next Centerfielder to join the hall of fame ranks will be Ken Griffey Jr, and then maybe Josh Hamilton after him if he can stay healthy and produce a few more years. I actually think Josh Hamilton gets in before Beltran does.
Ed Leyro
I remember writing a piece for Studious Metsimus on this topic before the 2012 season began (a piece in which you left a very complimentary comment – thank you so much), where I said that he’d have to play like Paul Molitor did after his 35th birthday to make the Hall of Fame. Well, he did just that in 2012, with his 32 HR, 97 RBI, 13 SB season.
I’m looking at his career regular season numbers as I type this: .282/.360/.496. He has 2,064 hits, 416 doubles, 334 HR, 306 SB, 1,267 runs scored, 1,243 RBI and is a 7-time All-Star and 3-time Gold Glove winner. I would think he’d need to finish his career with 2,500 hits, 500 doubles, 400 HR, 350 SB, 1,500 runs scored and 1,500 RBI, and perhaps another All-Star selection or two to be a strong HOF candidate. But if continues to be the dominant post-season hitter he’s become (28 games, .375/.488/.817, 13 HR, 23 RBI, 37 runs scored), he might not need to do much more to be a serious candidate. I mean, Beltran has reached base 63 times in 28 career postseason games (39 hits, 23 walks, 1 HBP). That’s insane! And he’s doing that in pressure-packed situations! Mets fans remember his NLCS-ending strikeout, but forget he had a 1.054 OPS in that same series, and that he only struck out three times in the entire series.
I don’t think Beltran is there yet, but if he continues to have a strong postseason and gives us another year or two similar to what he produced in 2012, then it would be hard to keep him out. He’s done everything well throughout his entire career.
Satish Ram
First off, Beltran is definitely somebody I would like to see in the Mets Hall Of Fame. There are a few reasons that I think he deserves, at the least, consideration for the Cooperstown.
Beltran is the 8th player in the 300 HR/300 SB, a pretty respectable club. With his career NOT over yet, you can see that he has over 2,000 hits and 400 2Bs. With 2,000 Hits, 300 Home Runs, 400 Doubles and 300 Stolen Bases, which puts him in a set of only six guys: Himself, Steve Finley, Willie Mays, Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, and Andre Dawson. His career SB success rate, with men with over 300 steals recorded, is ranked number 1 in history at 86.69%. Out of the six men above, the only one who has cracked 80% besides Beltran, is Alex Rodriguez. So Beltran has established himself as a respectable offensive model with a mix of nice numbers. His career split is .282/.360/.496.
He has right around 1,250 RBI and Runs scored respectively, nice numbers as well. Combine this with the fact that Beltran has been exceptional defensively throughout his career and has racked up 128 OF assists (showing not only speed, but an arm), and you find a player that is certainly in the discussion.
Although this is a short sample size, in 25 postseason games, he has 13 HR/23 RBI/9 SB v 0 CS/ and an average upwards of .350. Even just being a part of the 300/300 club, Beltran represents a borderline Hall of Famer who at least deserves the debate, and he’s showing no signs of slowing down.
Joe D.
I’m biased because Carlos Beltran has always been one of my favorite players even before he became a Met. When Omar Minaya signed him, to me it felt the same as when we traded for Mike Piazza, so that tells you a lot about my feelings about Beltran. And while neither of them led the Mets to a championship, they each left indelible marks in the franchise record books and in the hearts of many (but not all) Mets fans.
Beltran looks like he’s far from done and had the Mets tended to his knee injuries and diagnosed the problem accurately and earlier, this wouldn’t even be a discussion right now, Beltran would be a lock. But even so, he still has 4-5 years left which would easily be at least 600-700 hits and all the home runs, doubles, runs scored and RBI to go with those hits.
Beltran is also one of the greatest post season players the game has ever seen.
So yes, when all is said and done, I believe Carlos Beltran will make his way to Cooperstown. Players who have accomplished much less are already there.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
60 Comments + Add Comment
Recent Comments
- Alex68: on Mets Swept After Ike Davis Miscue In Ninth Ignites 7-4 Reds Win: Wright is a really, really good player,...
- Franklin: on Mets Swept After Ike Davis Miscue In Ninth Ignites 7-4 Reds Win: Wright is a really, really good player,...
- BadBadLeroyBrown: on Mets Swept After Ike Davis Miscue In Ninth Ignites 7-4 Reds Win: Ike Davis rope is so long you'd...
- Coach Mike: on Mets Swept After Ike Davis Miscue In Ninth Ignites 7-4 Reds Win: Sucks to get swept at home. Reds...
- Jerry M: on Mets Swept After Ike Davis Miscue In Ninth Ignites 7-4 Reds Win: David Wright is in a slump. He...
MMO Mets Chat
Need Tickets To The Mets Game?
Check Out These Great MLB Links!
Photographs From Gordon Donovan
5383 Fans Follow Us On Twitter!
1269 Fans Like Us On Facebook!
2341 Fans Read Our Feed!
1702 Fans Subscribe via Daily Email!
His numbers mirror Gil Hodges (always pick his name to use as a measuring stick ) and Gil is not a HOFer.
Gil Hodges and Bernie Williams too cant improve on their numbers, Carlos Beltran will surpass both of them unless he retires tomorrow.
True enough, plus I always thought Gil should be in but those that vote don’t agree
hey Kay – another player I have heard him compared to in terms of candidacy was Andre Dawson.
2,774 Hits 438HR 314SB 1,591RBI, 6 Gold Gloves in 21 seasons versus
2,064H 334HR, 306SB, 1,243 RBI, 3 Gold Gloves in 15 seasons
It took Dawson 9 years to get through to the Hall of Fame and he did it BARELY in 2010 with 77.9%.
Dawson won an MVP and was Top 10 4 times. Beltran was Top 10, twice and never won.
Some still think Dawson like others cheapened the Hall – that’s a totally different debate.
But if Dawson BARELY got in on his 9th try and he actually won an MVP – then Beltran should have a tougher mountain to climb since he was never the best player in the league right?
I’m not sure how much, or how much the MVP should be part of the criteria for HOF. You can have a guy that has a great year, one year, yet is not necessarily over the course of his career worth of HOF, i.e. Kevin Mitchell, Jimmy Rollins……..
Like I said, I think (well clearly since he hasn’t retired yet) the jury is out. I think he’s a great defender and his post season numbers are crazy, but I think offensively he’s a typical streaky hitter.
Time will tell.
Part of the problem is Hall of Fame eligibility. We always think of the legends but there are quite a few guys in the Hall that are more than a little questionable.
Beltran does not get in without 500 HRs. He needs another 166. If he goes to the AL and DH’s when his contract is up he may make it.
400 home runs and 300 stolen bases are a lock. 500 homeruns alone is not a benchmark especially in the roids era.
Name one HOF CF with a .282 average, 400 HR and 300 SBs. Not even close at those numbers.
hey Old School!
See above where I compare Beltran to Dawson. Dawson played over 1,000 games in CF. So technically he’d actually fit your criteria.
I agree with you for the most part but – Dawson would actually hurt your argument
Lmao, of course he isn’t…
Why not – I think it’s very close.
Kay, too bad you didn’t sense the sarcasm in me.. I love beltran, but sure as hell when ask if he was a HOF my favorite writer jesseP said no.. as if i didn’t know he’d say that
To not care what he thinks you sure do.
Ohhh trust me.. i dont give a ______, however, i want others to really see this guy for what he is.. a phony and a guy who, doesn’t like certain kind of players…
Mitch, Ed, Tie Dyed and myself also don’t think he’s a HOF. What are you saying about us then?
Clearly you do care, otherwise you’d point out all the other names that said NO to the question. Who are you to tell people he’s a phony, that’s your opinion, people are smart if that was true people would figure it out on their own, no need for you to broadcast your personal opinion on someone that you don’t really know.
No, since there is no inflection on the internet, I can’t tell when you are and aren’t being sarcastic. Funny, almost everyone said no, so why do you care what Jessep writes?
Baseball Hall of Fame…No, excellent player but has to get to 500 HRs at least and he will not get there.
Mets Hall of Fame- Yes. Best CF we ever had and one of top 10 players we’ve ever had.
Short answer before maybe a long one. If he retired today, no. However, what he does from here will either leave him short or push him over.
Carlos Beltran is not a HOF but there is a BUT: In the next ten years on projected retirements and five year waiting period besides Piazza, Glavine , Smoltz, Jeter, Mario, Chipper, Bagwell, Griffery Jr, Pedro, Pudge, Hoffman, Vlad, Pujols, Halladay, then who. I am sure I forgot some but less only 14 players inducted in the next ten years, it appears its getting harder to get in on account of steriod and PED era
hotstreak: Good point here – they will eventually change their requirements statistically because if they don’t the doors will be shut for a while
Excluding steroids etc. Here would be my list of HOF discussions to be had. Not saying they are all locks.
2013: Bonds, Clemens, Biggio, Piazza
2014: Glavine, Kent, Maddux, Mussina, Big Hurt
2015: Delgado, Nomar, Big Unit, Pedro, Sheffield, Smoltz
2016: Griffey, Hoffman
2017: Vlad, Manny, Pudge, maybe Jorge
2018: Chipper, Vizquel
Then in players close to Beltran’s age you’d have: Jeter, Mariano, Beltre, Konerko, Soriano, ARod, Ichiro off the top of my head.
So really Beltran’s eligibility also has as much to do with who is on the ballot as it does his stats.
No Bagwell?
Sorry that was FUTURE eligibles. Didn’t include Morris, Bagwell, Lee Smith, Rock Raines, McGwire, Bernie, Edgar but you can toss them on there also
No Eric Davis? Lol
Eric Davis was eliminated from the ballot back in 2007
I’m joking…but he was easily one of the best players I ever saw. Paul O’neill still says ED was the best player he ever played with…and look at all the guys he played with during his career.
I figured you were but you never know
The problem for ED was he didn’t age well at all. 86-90 he was a pretty great player. He was a 30HR/90RBI/40SB guy.
You take his next 5 seasons and he was an average 13HR/46RBI/19SB.
Agree…his dominance was short lived due to injuries then cancer
Mitch, bagwell is a known cheater
He never tested positive, and I once read a player’s quote regarding that era stating that 90% of players were using PEDs during that time. If that’s the case we just can’t just single out certain players who we thought to be using and punish them.
Beltran is one of my favorite Met players of all time.
If his knees didn’t give out on the young side, I’d bet he be a lock for the HOF. Kind of reminds me of Moises Alou in that regard, tremendous talent but injuries cost both them extended time.
Hard for me to say until his career is finished. IMO, if his career ended today, he would probably miss HOF consideration. Let’s see what he does with the rest of his career.
Agreed.
He actually had a strange year statistically. All of his hard shots evidently were HR. LOL. His doubles percentage decreased significantly.
Heck maybe he just decided that being that he couldn’t run well he would just hit it out. Very rare for a guy with 32 HR to have a SLG % of less than .500.
Very rare for a guy with 32 HR to have a SLG % of less than .500.
It’s not that rare, I looked and 18 players have done it in the last three seasons.
I’v wondered this, too.
Beltran has spent much of his career in, or near the top tier, of players, in the game.
But I just dont see him in the HOF.
His career stats are indeed impressive. Not great…but very very very good.
However, the one thing against Beltran, in my opinion, is that he played during the wrong era. If he’d played in the 60′s or 60′s, he should definitely been enshrined. But because he played in the sterois era (although he never was involved) his numbers seem less impressive.
30 HR’s means something different today–or in the 70′s–as opposed to the steroid era where EVERYONE was hitting 30.
Are all of you forgetting that Beltran used to be one of the best defensive center fielders of the era? He doesn’t get in right now, but if he has another couple of good years than he makes it.
I agree he was very good defensively but the guy won 3 Gold Gloves in his career: 06, 07, 08.
Edmonds, Druw Jones, Bernie, Griffey, Torii Hunter, and Ichiro were above him in terms of recognition for outstanding OF play during his time.
His defense isn’t enough to put him over the top for the HOF.
outside of Ozzie, how many guys actually got in because of their defense (or defense overcame #s that were below the arbitrary bar?)
Aparicio also, I did a post on Vizquel here – you could argue both Ozzie and Luis got in for D first.
I actually forgot to mention, at this point beltran pretty much has the best numbers in playoff history.
I think Beltran’s numbers are high enough where you have to at least consider him but if he qualifies for consideration I’d say Bernie Williams does as well and to a lesser extent Bobby Abreu.
How about Mo Vaughn, Jeff Kent?
How about Damon?
I was naming previous MVP’s Nah to Johnny Damon
On a side note, if Beltran is a HOF right now then Jim Edmonds is a stone cold lead pipe lock!
No doubt
The problem here is that all of you are acting as though Beltran’s career is over. Have you seen him this post season? Does he look like he’s dont to you? Who ever made the Bernie Williams comparison? Foolish comparison, Beltran has already surpassed him and he’ll blow by him after just one more season. You want a comparison that has mimicked Beltran through age 35 season, try Hall of Famer Dave Winfield. So far Beltran surpasses him in every way. And he wont have to play seven more years to reach Winfield’s career marks either, he can do it in four more seasons of similar production to 2012.
So you would also agree that Edmonds is a lock?
Edmonds is my favorite non-Met of all time, and I’m telling you he’s not a HOF. He was an amazing defensive CF but offensively he just didn’t do enough.
I still think Dawson is a better comparison for Beltran and I think Dawson has a better resume and BARELY got into the HOF.
For me – a player doesn’t earn a HOF spot because of what he does after his 35th birthday. Yes a guy will get his 3,000th hit maybe after that, but that’s a different story. Beltran won’t hit that milestone.
Dawson has 2,600 more AB’s than Beltran to this point. That’s five more full seasons.
Dawson played till 42. Beltran is 35.
Expect Beltran to surpass him in just about everything, if he plays as long.
Also, Beltran has done what he has as switch hitter which should put his final power and production totals amongst the elite in that category should he stay healthy enough to play another 4 or 5 years.
Right but Dawson didn’t get voted into the HOF because of accomplishments after age 35.
All you can do is judge them NOW.
Dawson through age 35
2,201Hits–1,130Runs–396Dubs–346HR–1231RBI–300SB–.283AVG-ROY–8 GG–1MVP
Beltran through age 35
2,064Hits–1,267Runs–416Dubs–334HR–1243RBI–306SB–.282AVG–ROY–3GG-0MVP
Who’s resume is more impressive?
And the fact remains Dawson barely got the vote in 9 tries. I agree with you that Beltran may be better in his older age but only time will tell. The question is right now is he a HOF?
Also consider this: For me, a player doesn’t get into the HOF because of what they do after their prime years. Guys like Blyleven to me accomplished something great with 287 wins, but that doesn’t mean he was an all-time great. It just means he hung around long enough.
Put it like this: There’s a huge difference between Blyleven winning 287 and Bob Gibson winning 251.
If you judge Beltran from start to age 35, was he an all-time great? If Dawson needed 9 tries to get to 77% and Dawson had a better resume — then I can’t say Beltran is a HOF.
If Beltran gets to 3,000 hits then sure – but that ain’t happening.
And don’t forget this was how the voters looked at Andre Dawson.
2002 BBWAA (45.3%)
2003 BBWAA (50.0%)
2004 BBWAA (50.0%)
2005 BBWAA (52.3%)
2006 BBWAA (61.0%)
2007 BBWAA (56.7%)
2008 BBWAA (65.9%)
2009 BBWAA (67.0%)
2010 BBWAA (77.9%)
9 years to get in and to get in at 77.9% does not bode well for Beltran right now if through age 35 Dawson was BETTER than Beltran.
Jessep he had an OPS over .900 for 17 seasons. I can’t agree.
Beltran: .282 .360 .496 .856 122 OPS+, 3 gold gloves
Edmonds: .284 .376 .527 .903 132 OPS+ , 8 gold gloves
I’d love to tell you you’re right but nobody even close to his era has been inducted with that few amount of hits. I think Edmonds was one of the greatest fielding CF of all time, had great power (393 HR) but his resume is light
0 MVP, 2 Top 5 MVP, 1 Silver Slugger, 4 time AS
Pair that with 1,949 hits over 17 years and I think you have enough reasons to just call him a great defensive player who had HR power – not an all time great.
I am not saying that he is a HOF, Jessep. I am saying that if Beltran is a lock then he should be as well.
Edmonds a lock? Why would I think that? Beltran already has more RBI and Runs than Edmonds.Edmonds never even reached 2,000 hits, Beltran is already beyond that. Are you saying a lock ala Ozzie Smith? I still say no.
See above, Beltran has him in counting stats but Edmonds has him in ever average stat.
It is not a race. It is not about if Beltran will beat Williams next year or not. It’s about taking a look at a career as a whole and trying to see if what said player has done is Hall Of Fame worthy.
If right now Beltran is worthy than it is not like his career is head shoulders above Williams where then Williams is not even a consideration.
Beltran is a Rookie of the year winner, 7 Time All Star, 3 Gold Gloves and 2 Silver Sluggers
Williams is a 5 Time All Star, 4 Gold Gloves and 1 Silver Slugger.
Beltran over 15 years is a lifetime .282 hitter with 2,064 Hits, 334 HR’s, 1,243 RBI’s and 1,267 Runs scored.
Williams over 16 years is a lifetime .297 hitter with 2,336 Hits, 287 HR’s, 1,257 RBI’s and 1,366 Runs scored.
Finally to compare Beltran to Winfield is fine but Winfield in his prime was a 12 Time All Star with 7 Gold Gloves and 5 Silver Slugger Awards. He then at the age of 40 won another Silver Slugger making the total 6.
If Beltran can continue to produce for another 3 years at an All Star level then obviously his Hall Of Fame eligibility will become MUCH clearer. Until then If his career ended today (God forbid) I believe he is for now at a point where he can be considered.
Beltran has already surpassed Williams in a number of ways including more than twice as many steals, 4x as many 30+ homer seasons, all star selections, 100-RBI seasons, home runs, triples.
He’ll soon surpass him in a whole bunch of other categories – including Doubles, RBI, Runs, Hits, Total Bases. The only thing he won’t surpass Williams is in BA and OBP.
A few more good seasons, and Beltran I think is a lock. His manager just needs to give him adequate rest so he stays consistent throughout the season. He played in 151 games in 2012 – I think too many. 140-145 probably makes him more productive overall.
If he has two more years of 30 plus homers and a maintains his career average, I say yes. While Beltran was never looked at as a dominate player in the regular season, he has been in the postseason. As Mets fans our view of him is cloudy because of the strikeout, but he was that teams horse all season, we would not have been to game 7 of the NLCS if he didn’t play the way he did.
Most of you are overlooking some very important points – his prowess as switch hitter and majority of career as five-tool Centerfielder makes him a lock with a few more good seasons bringing his stats to 400 homers, 1,500 rbi, 2500 hits, 300 steals, plus bevy of All Star selections and 100-RBI seasons, great postseason stats, best stolen base % in history.
As it is, he’s the only switch hitter in major league history with 300 steals and 300 homers, and a great teammate, consummate professional who works hands-on to make them better. And 400 homers, 300 steals puts him in rare territory. If Beltran stays healthy for a few more seasons, he’ll achieve the above threshold, and likely beyond – amongst the most productive switch hitters and primarily CF in MLB history, a player who did everything well and looked smooth as silk doing it. When all is said and done, Hall of Famer and I think likely first ballot one.