26
2012
Mets That Should Come Back In 2013
An article by 
When you scan the roster of the 2012 Mets, there are only a handful you can justify returning, and only fewer they should bring back. The following are the Mets you know will be back next year:
JOHAN SANTANA: I’d love for them to find a taker of his $25.5 million contract, but you know that’s not going to happen. Santana will go down as one of the Mets’ worst trades for what they got from him after signing him to a long-term deal. Never mind the prospects for they didn’t amount to much, but the salary became an anchor that dragged down the franchise, especially considering how often he was injured. The Twins’ asking price forced the Yankees and Red Sox to pull out, essentially leaving the Mets to bid against themselves, both in prospects and salary. He’s back because he can’t be unloaded. That’s the only reason.
R.A. DICKEY: I don’t know what it will take to bring Dickey back, but the Mets can always pick up his 2013 option and continue to muddle through negotiations. My confidence level of GM Sandy Alderson reaching a contract extension is low. Whether the Mets bring Dickey back to continue negotiations or to trade him is uncertain, but he’ll be on the Opening Day roster.
JON NIESE: He’s signed long-term, which is a smart signing by the Alderson administration. Young, left-handed arms are at a premium. The Mets could get a lot for him, but his real value is in building around him.
MATT HARVEY: He made such a good first impression that he’s already penciled into the Mets’ 2013 rotation, and hopefully will stay there for years to come. When teams call the Mets to talk trade they invariably ask about Harvey and are properly turned down.
DILLON GEE: The returns on Gee’s surgery are good and he’s expected to be ready for spring training. The Mets could find a veteran capable of giving them Gee’s production, but not at his salary. Gee has been a find, and if healthy, he’ll be a reliable No. 5 starter.BOBBY PARNELL: Parnell did not grasp the opportunity to be the Mets’ closer and struggled as the set-up option. However, when Frank Francisco went down and Jon Rauch struggled, Parnell showed improvement in the second half. Parnell’s fastball is overpowering and he’s continued to develop his secondary pitches. That he’s healthy and can throw a ball through a wall would make him attractive in the trade market. Considering his age, that’s also why the Mets should continue in developing him.
ROBERT CARSON/JOSH EDGIN: Opportunities are found in the strangest places, and Edgin and Carson found theirs with Tim Byrdak’s injury. The Mets blew out Byrdak’s arm, and desperate for lefty help in the bullpen, dipped into their minor league system for these two. Both struggled at times, but also showed glimpses of what they could bring to the table. Unless the Mets get lucky this winter, they’ll go into spring training with these two lefties in the bullpen.
FRANK FRANCISCO: He has another year on his contract – a foolish deal, agreed – which is why he’ll be in Port St. Lucie. But, if the Mets can make a deal for him they should as he really doesn’t add much to their porous bullpen.
JOSH THOLE: Both Thole’s defense and offense have regressed. Alderson seems pleased with the way he handles the staff, but he does get healthy. In a perfect world, the Mets would trade for, or develop, another catcher, but won’t as they have little to trade and little in the minor leagues. Thole comes back because the Mets have too many other priorities to address instead of their catching.
IKE DAVIS: Don’t listen to the trade rumors. He’s not going any where. A team void of power and is pinching pennies isn’t about to deal their 32-homer hitting first baseman. Not at his salary. Unless the Mets can get a boatload in return, what’s the incentive in dealing him? And, with Lucas Duda a question, why would they take that risk?
DANIEL MURPHY: It’s too bad Murphy doesn’t hit for power otherwise he’d be a keeper. Murphy played better at second to the point where the Mets don’t have a red flag waving at the position anymore. As with Thole, he’s good enough to stay at his position while the Mets address other issues.
RUBEN TEJADA: Tejada more than adequately replaced Jose Reyes and should be here for years. If he has another year like he had in 2012, the Mets should think of an extension to keep him away from arbitration and free-agency. Will he ever be as good as Reyes? Probably not, but he’s more than good enough.
DAVID WRIGHT: I don’t see him going anywhere. As with Dickey, if the Mets don’t get anything done they’ll pick up his option and see what they can get in the trade market. It’s harder to trade a player these days during the winter because teams have the free-agent option to improve. I believe the Mets will eventually work out a deal with Wright, who said he wants to be like Chipper Jones and play his entire career with the same team.
JASON BAY: Like Santana, Bay is back because they can’t deal that contract. His value to the Mets is staying healthy and having a strong first half so the team might be able to deal him. But, after doing nothing the previous three years, that’s not likely.
SCOTT HAIRSTON: It is hard to say good-bye to 20 homers, but that’s what I can see happening with Hairston, who’ll likely get a better offer in the free-agent market while the Mets wait things out. Hairston, despite being a role player, what the Mets’ most productive outfielder. Whether as a starter or coming off the bench, there should be a place for him with the Mets.
LUCAS DUDA: He’s back not based on 2012 production but potential. Duda had a rough season, but he’s strong as a bull and the Mets need the power. Yes, he’s a butcher in right field, but I’d consider flipping him with Bay and playing him in left field.
About the Author: John Delcos
I am an active member of the BBWAA and have covered Major League Baseball in several capacities for over 20 years, including ten in New York working the Mets' and Yankees' beat. I covered the Baltimore Orioles for eight years and the Cleveland Indians before that. I currently serve as an editor and senior staff writer for Mets Merized Online. Follow me on Twitter @jdelcos.
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I don’t understand why the Mets don’t play Jason Bay in right if Duda can’t play RF.
Because Fred and Jeff said so
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=158
For the 100th time…
Johan is guaranteed to be paid 20 million next year, not 25.5…5.5 mil is DEFERRED
If Johan is throwing darts from April to July….he can be traded…
he will be owed 10 million from the midpoint of July to October
that means the Mets would have only paid him 10 million to that point….
the team that takes on Johan is responsible for the 3.5 mil buyout…
like most teams…they will count that against 2014′s budget…not 2013…
so it is possible…that Johan only will cost the mets 10 mil…
if the mets do a full salary dump…no prospects back for us
if the mets pay his 10 mil…the team trading for Johan gets an ace they dont have to pay for, but they must part with prospects
its that simple fellas…just b/c Sandy repeats a lie, it doesnt make it true
carry on
The $3.5M buyout (which is actually $5.5M; Bay’s is $3M) does count towards the 2013 budget because it has to be paid on 2013 if exercised. That is how the franchise is looking at things.
As for the prospect of trading Johan, I agree. If he is pitching well, there will be some team(s) that are looking to acquire him. He is a proven vet who can pitch in tough games down the stretch. One potential drawback at the deadline is Santana has a vesting option based upon 215 innings pitched. This is unrealistic since he only threw about 100 innings this year and the Mets most likely will limit his innings early. However, if he is around 130 innings by the trading deadline, that might be of concern to some teams.
JOHAN SANTANA: With sandy at the helm we will not move him out. Sandy has no idea how to unload a contract without actually releasing a player it seems
R.A. DICKEY: We should trade him now that his value is up. I can actually see him traded this year because he’s been the most vocal about the displease of the FO. we all know how SA feels about being corner.
JON NIESE: Ahh, YA!!!
MATT HARVEY:By may, He’ll be the team’s ACE.
DILLON GEE: Yea, he’s no cahill but he’s a good serviceable pitcher.
BOBBY PARNELL: At some point we should come to grasp that this guy is nothing more than a 7th inning guy; the mets have tried to put this guy is position to fail time after time. leave him be a 7th inning guy for us and that’s it.
ROBERT CARSON/JOSH EDGIN: I rather see these 2 kids in our bullpen than anybody else our genius GM brings in. Hope to God is that SA does not have a good day again trying to fix a bullpen he himself damage
FRANK FRANCISCO: He shouldn’t, but what other GM is stupid enough to actually get this guy? unless is in a package with wright or dickey, he’s somehow the mets closer next year again. Yuck
JOSH THOLE: well, what can i say? Is he better than that POC we just acquire through waivers?
IKE DAVIS: 35+ HR and 120+ RBI if surround by talent.. Since he won’t be 30+ HR 100-110 RBI will be the norm for this guy.. Hopefully SA and his goons are out of office so we can lock this guy long term
DANIEL MURPHY: Would’ve been the best pinch hitter in baseball had the mets kept reyes. He’s an ok player, nothing more nothing less.
RUBEN TEJADA: Well, he surprised everyone and i think he’d be better. Not sure why depodesta and SA drafted a SS with the first rounf pick this year when this kid is only 22? Then again, Every SS needs a back up so…..
DAVID WRIGHT:The notion about a player staying with the team all his career this days is over; If the greatest hitter of this era albert pujols jumped ships so can this guy. trade him NOW while his value is as high as it is. Fool a GM into getting him because of his WAR and hopefully they bite. His second halfs decline are a concern and his best years are long behind him
JASON BAY: At this point, I’m done with this guy. Biggest POS in met history. but hey, he hustles at every ground ball to 3rd he hits.
SCOTT HAIRSTON: He’d be too expensive for SA and CO. Should’ve traded him last year, but hey, we wanted to keep fannies in the seat, so being that he is a big star and a guy who draws fans to the stadium we couldn’t afford to lose him
LUCAS DUDA:Sigh… Disappointing season after high expectations. Shouldn’t be back, but then again, will anybody we bring in be better.
….and FYI – Daniel Murphy was ranked the WORST defensive 2b in baseball…
my dude was practically playing in shallow RF to compensate for his lack of range…sorry…but we could use a stud SS, which moves Tejada to 2B and puts Murphy in the “who can replace David Wright at 3B” pool of candidates….
no team wins w/o strong up the middle D….no way u have Murph at 2B and still have strong up the middle D….
i like Murph’s grit, his fire, he is one of the most clutch bats on this team, even more clutch than David Wright
part of that is the fact that he doesnt have the weight of the franchise on his shoulders…
David has Delta commercials, and 100 other sponsors looking at him….when a pitcher is in a tight spot and needs to get David out….its almost a sure thing…
Murph on the other hand….has ice in his veins.
With a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs…he is batting .321
With a runner on 3rd and 2 outs…he is batting .429
With 2 outs and RISP, he hits .343
he actually gets BETTER when there is more pressure
David Wright wont be traded before season ticket packages go on sale….
the same way the mets started offering season ticket packages early last year before the reyes fiasco…
the mets are trying to rope in as many suckers as possible for 2013 before they push the button on David Wright
this probably means not getting the best possible package…
David Wright will be a 1 year rental for any team that gets him…
and depending on if the mets pay salary…the team that gets him could get him for FREE ( should they part with a BOATLOAD of prospects )
If the mets are TRULY rebuilding…they pay David’s 16 mil salary and demand 2 more top 10 prospects to the 2-3 they were already getting
at the end of the day, I want to see the mets get a Texiera like return for David Wright…not a Billy Wagner type return…not even a Carlos Beltran type return…
then we turn our attention to Dickey….
If Dickey wants to resign with us…then cool…we keep him…if he doesnt…then bon voyage…
get another 2-3 top prospects for him…
at the end of the day, I want to see the Mets have 5 of the top prospects in baseball out of these 2 deals…if it means having to give up a Kirk and/or Havens in the deal…then so be it…
Murphys defense improved throughout the season. Much if his poor ranking was because of the first 2.5 months when he was atrocious at 2nd. By the end of the season, Murphy struck me as adequate defensively at 2B. Nobody is going to mistake him for Cano or Phillips, but he can handle the job. Plus, Murphy has the one thing that it takes to improve on defense; the desire and willingness to work hard.
I agree with your assessment of his hitting. He is clutch. I am always amazed at all the “trade Murphy for anything; he sucks” crowd. Murphy is a proven .300 hitter. I dont know if people understand how rare that is. Sure the guy doesnt hit a ton of homeruns. But if I am managing and can write in .300 with 40 doubles to start the year, I will take a team full of him.
Hell the Yankees might still be playing if they had a guy like Murphy on their team who could hit with RISP unlike Cano (and the rest of the bombers).
What Murphy did was adjust his position by playing on the edges of the RF grass…the reason he had to do that was b/c he is not fast enough to cover 2B.
Put him at 1B and he is fine
Put him at 3B and he is fine
Put him at SS and he is not
Put him at LF and he is not
No one would call David Wright a bad defensive player if they put him in CF and he made errors…but the met fans constantly bash Murphy…
Fact is: the mets have been doing this to a variety of players..
Murph – 3B, 2B, 1B, LF
Valdespin – LF, CF, RF, SS, 2B
Duda – 1B, RF, LF
Remember when everyone made it a big deal that Reyes was going to have to learn 2B in 2003
well we’ve been doing that over…and over…and over…and over…
constantly putting kids in a position to fail and get booed out of town…
I think a stud SS moves Tejada over to 2B and Murph over to 3B…positions where their lack of range is masked
Hi John,
Have to disagree with you that Santana’s (along with the totlal of others) “salary became an anchor that dragged down the franchise”. Even $135 million, though perhaps not well invested, does not put a drain on a big market’s financial resources and if the team is successful yields a lot more in return. Not with SNY and merchandising brought into the picture.
The “anchor that dragged down the franchise” was dropped by Madoff with help from the Wilpons who were too ambitious in securing loans to buy out the Doubledays, finance a portion of the new stadium and create SNY all at once. Santana and Bay would only be considered as write-offs in the overall financial scheme.
Fred and Jeff also didn’t help their cause by assuming they could charge whatever outrageous ticket prices they want and the fans would still come. Even with the Mets doing well the first half of the past two seasons they did not draw well for even with the price drops, the added processing fees and cost of concessions made going to games either less affordable or just deemed by others as being too much to pay for simply going to a baseball game.
I am sure that technically the Mets lost money these past few seasons just as I am equally sure that the Mets technically ALSO made money these past few seasons as well. All parent companies are able to juggle their books legally to create the illusion of losses for a few of it’s components for business and tax advantages. There is the selling of television rights which the Mets make and the dividends (even if due to re-financing) which SNY then creates which both go to the same exact source – Sterling Equities.
But Sterling Equties also invested that half-billion dollars with Madoff and ran off annual returns of approximately 16 percent on that investment which suddenly went up in smoke. So it is due to the Ponzi Scheme wiping out both the initial investment and the annual returns, the decreased revenue due to fans getting turned off and the loans that the Wilpons thought they would be able pay off by is why the revenue still beng earned has to be concentrated on paying off debt rather than being re-invested. And, there is still the question of Sterling Equties still making a bit of cash for it’s ownership in any event.
Excellent summary on the financial problems of the Mets right now. One I agree with 100%.
Hi SRT,
And imagine what the state of the team would be today had that not been so…
Though maybe not a post-season participant, we could have been a legit contender and though many would obviously second-guessing moves made by our general manager, nobody would be second guessing the motives behind those decisions. Don’t know if Omar would have still been our general manager but I am confident Sandy Alderson would have definately still been working with the commissioner.
I don’t know if the Wilpons realize how much long-term damage they caused themselves with the mistrust of the fans and the resentment over the arrogance with Sandy’s double-talk which is an insult to many a one’s intelligence. As mentioned before, when Billy Beane was asked if he considered signing arbitration eligible Gio to a long-term contract he was honest in saying:
“We had had some conversations last year, but not right now I don’t think, because of some other things more immediate, more pressing.”
After the trade, though he did talk in terms of of re-building, he also admitted:
“The fact of the matter is, for us to compete, we’re going to have to have a new stadium, and I don’t think there was a move we could have made that would put us in a position to compete with a club like the Angels or Texas given what they have and where they’re headed and some of those signings.
“You’re talking about two clubs in the division that are probably in the $150- to $170-million range, and we’re not a business that can put that payroll on the field.”
When he came on board, Sandy told us that 2011 would be a transition year due to certain contract commitments we would not have in 2012 and a few months later upon the beginning of the exhibition season – when news about the Mets needing that $25 million loan just to meet operating expenses became public – Sandy still said the Wilpon’s financial situation due to the Madoff situation had no affect on his operations.
Had he perhaps been more open as he is now, saying the Mets don’t have the money to compete (like Beane did) would have stilled the anger many of us have toward both he and the organization. If one chooses to cover-up for the owners, then he is just as guilty because of complicity.
Well Beane is also part-owner….has been part of the Oakland family for 3 decades now and has enough equity that he can say things like that..
he has proven over and over that he can win a mini-budget…
what people forget is that BEFORE sabermetrics…before the owner died in 1995….Sandy’s Athletics took a NOSE-DIVE after the WS. in 1990
this is why they traded off Dave Stewart in 1992
this is why they traded off Rickey Henderson
From 1983-1995….Sandy’s A’s had a good 3 year run…thats it…88-89-90
1995-1996-1997…these are the years Sandy had to run the team with a tiny budget…
the team was a disaster
these are facts.
Hi Joey:
I have which I believe is a legitimate question. Do you believe in rebuilding at all in the NY market. Omar Minya said NO. Look at the bad contracts. Yes he did good to with salvaging Dickey from the scrap heap. As you see in my posts I am of the philosophy of a strong farm and sustained competitve teams which the Mets franchise never had such as a ten year run of being competitive. FA cost valuable draft picks. Yes SA screwed up big time by not signing Reyes or trading him before the 2011 season begun. One more question please explain how to have a strong farm without rebuilding and just spending on FA. I know you say we got rid of three all stars. But how long could they carry us. The Wheeler deal wass the way to go. In the short rebuilding SUCKS big time but we need an adult in the room and delay gratification. Please do not talke that remark personally as the “we” means Mets fans in general.
Hi Hotsteak,
I certainly do believe in re-building when the situation calls for it. At this point, I believe it is in the best interests of the Mets to do so because the moves of the past two years has given us no choice. Two years ago before Sandy came on board and Beltran and Reyes were coming off of injuries I felt we were just two or three role players (not big name, just good ones) away. But instead of adding, we subtracted.
And yes, a team can focus on both the farm system and the major league club at the same time. Atlanta and St. Louis are two prime examples of that having remained competitive while slowly replacing older stars from within and making key signings over a period of two decades. And with the advantage of the resources the Mets have playing in the New York market they can financially pursue that dual focus quite more easily compared to other clubs.
I also cannot say that the Mets put less emphasis into building from within and focused on more on a year to year basis when the finances were there. Look at the many players the farm system has produced so far: Davis, Neise, Gee, Parnel, Duda, Murphy, Tejada, Kirk, and Harvey along with potentially good ones in Mejia, Familia, etc. 2011 and 2012 could have been much different and we still would have had our future ahead with us.
If the Mets were an aging club ready to collapse – let us say like the Yankees are now (with too many holes to fix just due to age alone, that being third base, short stop, left field, and a rotation that includes Petite, Kuroda and Garcia, plus a first baseman who has gone down hill three straight seasons, a catcher who can hit just .211, and part time players that includes a 35 year Jones and 38 year old Suziki) then it would seem time for a changing of the guard and one or two years wandering in the desert as the kids grew and matured. But the Mets problems after the 2010 season were nowhere the ones being faced by the New York Yankees today. The only difference is that the Yankees will go out and buy some replacements and go year to year and I think that is going to hurt them now more than help them.
you certainly can do both if you are smart and have a LT operating plan (as atlanta and STL do), but it does take a while to prime the MiL pump.
Nice article, John. Santana has not produced as expected except his first year but to call it one of the worst trades in mets history? Its not even close. This is an organization that traded Nolan Ryan for Jim Friggin fregosi and Tom Seaver for 4 nothings. too bad he cant stay healthy. The team was doing great when he and Dickey were the co-aces the first half.
You can find a taker for Santana provided your wiling to pay A bit more than half his remaining salary. The more you pay the more you get back in kids.
He has to show he is healthy so it won’t happen before Spring Training but is still possible to do,
I have to disagree with Santana being a terrible trade and sign. No matter what he was able to break the Ryan curse and he gave us a legitimate ace when he has been healthy. I have not looked at the percentages but Pedro was probably hurt for the same percentage of his contract but he is not looked at as a bust. I agree with Parnell, why can’t this organization play to their players strengths and leave it at that. Parnell has been jerked around alot. When they put him in the rotation during his rookie year it optimized the ridiculousness of The Mets development strategy.
i think parnell finally showed some promise when they let him close games at the end of the year. short sample but we can hope.
he actually has a nasty curve ( I believe Izzy/K-Rod were grooming him last year )
if he can get movement on that FB, he would be a top closer in the league.
thats the thing with Bobby…he is either gonna be a top-notch closer..or a bum…there is no inbetween with him…and for the meager price we are paying him, it is well worth a chance
Worst trade in Mets history? Rusty Staub for Micke.y Lolich
Nolan Ryan for Jim Fregosi?
I know Nolan Ryan was very wild when here and his future was unsure, but………..
I disagree on both the Murphy and Ike points. I STRONGLY disagree on the Johan point.
I like Murphy but I do not believe he is a long term solution at 2nd base. I view him more as a somewhat supersub. The guy can really rake but his lack of speed, power, and athleticism
combined with his poor defense make him a player that can easily be replaced.
I would rather we keep Ike, and I believe he can fix the holes in his swing and become a legit power threat for the Mets. Although this year was sub par by his standards, Ike has the potential to be an excellent defensive firstbaseman. I think that having missed nearly an entire year really hurt his game this year and that he will bounce back. That being said, he is perhaps our most tradable chip and I think we could get some high quality prospects. So while I don’t want to trade him, I believe Sandy owes it to the franchise to at least listen to offers for Ike.
Johan being one of the worst trades in club history is one of the most ridiculously untrue statemants I’ve ever heard on this site. I understand he has missed time every year and that he is now well beyond his prime but the man but he has been a true ace for us and an absolute bulldog on the mound. He has been a mentor to many of the younger pitchers on the staff, pitched the first (and I know that it is a highly contested) no hitter, and has shown incredible toughness and grit in coming back from his surgery. He has had a winning record and good era every year he’s pitched, combine all of that with the fact that we gave up ABSOLUTELY nothing to get him makes the statement flat out UNTRUE!
Sloatsburg — “The guy can really rake but his lack of speed, power, and athleticism ….”
Murphy just might be the fastest runner in the Mets infield. Certainly faster than Ike. Faster than Wright in the windsprints they ran in 2008 spring traning. Faster than Tejada.
Des, I’m in Murph’s camp but I never heard of murph being faster than Wright that is interesting. I certainly don’t see it in the field but that doesn’t mean its not true. I wonder why he is so station to station then? He’s pretty smart baseball wise so I figure he could learn to get a read and take a jump now and then if he had the foot speed to do it.