Oct
30
2012

Alderson Must Use The Moneyball Principles That Landed Him Mets Job In The First Place

An article by Hojo's Mojo

Ken Davidoff of the New York Post says that due to lingering payroll flexibility issues the Mets have no margin for errors like the Angel Pagan trade and the Frank Francisco signing. he also points out that their is a lack of organizational depth to execute a significant trade without impacting the major-league team nor the dollars to compete with the big boys in free agency.

Davidoff adds that it’s time for the Mets to start applying the Moneyball principles that have yet to be seen and was why Alderson was brought here in the first place. He says that they need to look at players like Melky Cabrera, Randy Choate, A.J. Pierzynski, Shane Victorino, and Marco Scutaro as players who would give the Mets production and value.

MELKY CABRERA

Yup. Let’s go there right at the start. The Mets need to be creative, take risks and buy low. Who better illustrates these values than the man whom the Giants loathed so much they essentially declared, “We’d rather lose without you than win with you”?

We can’t know precisely what sort of player Cabrera will be now that he has been suspended for a positive test for illegal performance-enhancing drugs. We don’t know when he started using them. We won’t know whether he’ll try them again.

So why go after a guy with so many unknowns? Because there is a paucity of quality outfielders, Cabrera’s price figures to be reasonable (perhaps one year at $3 million, The Post’s Joel Sherman reported) and he’s a switch-hitter with New York experience who played extensive center field — to mixed reviews, admittedly — as recently as 2011.

Moreover, given his experience in Web design, maybe Melky could help out the Mets’ IT department as a bonus.

RANDY CHOATE

Since the Mets presumably won’t be players in the Rafael Soriano market, and given Frank Francisco’s shaky first year in a Mets uniform, the club should go forward with a “closer by committee” plan and tell manager Terry Collins and pitching coach Dan Warthen their job is to get folks like Francisco, Bobby Parnell and Josh Edgin to buy into this.

The Mets have a young lefty in Edgin who has displayed the potential of succeeding against right-handed as well as left-handed hitters. Adding a second lefty would give Collins another weapon, and Choate, 37, is as good and durable a lefty-killer as anyone else out there; he pitched in 80 games for the Marlins and Dodgers last year and limited lefties to a .158 batting average, .243 on-base percentage and .218 slugging percentage. He started his career in the Yankees’ organization and likes New York.

A.J. PIERZYSNKI

The Yankees’ Russell Martin might be too expensive for the Mets’ tastes, so Pierzynski, 36 in December, might be a better financial fit. His excellent 2012 (a career high 27 homers) looks like an outlier offensively, yet even if he regressed to his 2011 numbers (eight homers and 29 doubles), he’d represent a significant upgrade over Josh Thole. Plus he would bring some New York chutzpah the Mets could badly use.

SHANE VICTORINO

The center fielder’s free-agent market is tough to peg at this point. He’s coming of his worst season since 2007 and turns 32 in November. But he still steals bases (he was a terrific 39-for-45 with the Phillies and Dodgers in 2012) and fields well. If he falls down to the Mets’ level, with Michael Bourn and Josh Hamilton slated for the most outfield bucks, then the Mets should pounce.

MARCO SCUTARO

Like with Victorino, there’s no need for the Mets to get caught in a bidding war, in case some team goes gaga over Scutaro’s tremendous October. If the price is reasonable, though, the 37-year-old would be a great fit here, allowing Daniel Murphy to be more of a role player.

About the Author: Rob Johnson

17 Comments + Add Comment

TX October 30, 2012 at 10:37 am

I like the first 3, not the last 2.
Sloatsburg Mets Fan October 30, 2012 at 11:08 am

I Like all except Cabrera. That being said, Melky wouldn’t shock me in the least.
pennmetsfan October 30, 2012 at 11:52 am

I don’t see the Mets even attempting to sign any of these players. Not because they couldn’t get at least one of them but because these guys aren’t worth it. The best case would be Pierzynski but I have heard he has a terrible attitude and the Mets probably would be cautious about adding him to a team with young pitchers and having him impact their development. Melky is another one that could have an upside but more realistically he probably will never a good player again. He went from a mediocre player to a superstar and in that time just “happened” to get caught doing performance enhancing drugs. If he stays off the ‘roids he will just be another Torres. If he gets caught doing steroids again he will lose the team a lot of money for nothing in return. The Mets could do without the bad publicity Melky would bring too. I really think the Mets are going to sign only a couple no name guys in the offseason (especially if they work out the extension with Wright) and then fill holes internally. This team isn’t trying to win NOW its trying to rebuild its minor league system and reduce payroll which totally makes sense considering that the team wasted a ridiculous amount of money on free agent signings that went no where. Its time to actually build a team instead of trying to emulate the Yankees and buy one and that unfortunately take many years.
- taskmaster4450 October 30, 2012 at 12:43 pm
  
  I agree with all that was posted other than the part about trying to emulate the Yankees. I dont think Omar was so much concerned about what was going on in the Bronx as much as he felt that was the easiest way to win. Obviously, we see now how the farm system is rather bare considering he had 7 years to build it up. Omar got a hold of the checkbook and spent freely.
  
  Alderson seems to be taking the approach the farm system (and the international market) are imperative to long term success. Sadly, this takes time to develop which few Mets fans are willing to grant. The win now mentality has been a part of the Met culture for so long that it became an albatross. Success did not ensue. The Mets spent a lot of money in payroll and have nothing to show for it (the past 6 years). During that time period, the Mets have yet to develop a star prospect. The best player to come out of the farm thus far from Omar’s days is Niese. Obviously, he can still hit with Ike, Harvey, etc…but the fact is there was no David Wright or Jose Reyes in the mix.
  - Just-Da-Damaja October 30, 2012 at 1:19 pm
    
    Omar’s bosses told him he had to do 3 things:
    
    Quickly turn around a sinking franchise: DONE
    Quickly refill the fans in the seats: DONE
    Re-Stock the minor league system on the cheap: DONE
    
    This is why Omar got that extension
    
    Murphy, Tejada, Duda, Mejia, Parnell, Niese, Ike, Harvey, Gee are all prime examples of Omar being a good judge of talent. 6 out of 8 were low risk choices
Matt M October 30, 2012 at 12:17 pm

I’ll pass on all five.
Matt M October 30, 2012 at 12:26 pm

They need to trade. There’s no other way around it. I hear Houston wants a DH….get on the horn Sandy!! Trade them Duda.
- TX October 30, 2012 at 12:40 pm
  
  Uh, Houston has absolutely nothing of value anywhere. They are like the Mets farm system of 3 years ago, but worse.
  - Donal October 31, 2012 at 1:58 pm
    
    Nothing major league ready, but their low levels have some decent IFAs.
Joey D. October 30, 2012 at 12:39 pm

The question I have is where has Davidoff been the past two years? Who does he think was in charge the past 24 months?

The author should read MMO for the premise that Sandy was the architect behind the moves made in Oakland – and that he did it coming in cold with a combination of sabermetric evaluation and money ball economics – has long been proved to be more myth than factual.
- taskmaster4450 October 30, 2012 at 12:45 pm
  
  The years the A’s were making the WS, they were at or near the top in payroll in the league.
  - Joey D. October 30, 2012 at 12:53 pm
    
    Hi Taksmaster,
    
    Indeed they were. Just didn’t want to elaborate on all the points that separates the legend from the truth.
    
    And the players suggested by Davidoff wouldn’t exactly be a campaign for re-building, either. Since Sandy is achieving his goal of cutting expenses (one of many that were not baseball related) then let the kids develop.
hotstreak October 30, 2012 at 1:12 pm

Hi Joey D.

If you don’t no where you going any movement will get you there: That is 4th or last place.
Either intend to contend with a 135 M payroll: If not, then have a complete rebuilding almost a fire sale except for Ike, Niese, Harvey and Wheeler.
Yes, you have to know where you are going to have a plan to get there.
Hank October 30, 2012 at 2:15 pm

The Mets don’t have money to sign most of the guys on this list. The math just doesn’t work. If you include the money owed to players for 2013, the soon to be picked up options of Wright and Duda, and the arb raises to come…the team should already be at $95-97MM.

If payroll is to sit at $100MM, the math does not add up.
TruthsaboutMurphy October 30, 2012 at 10:07 pm

They have like 75 million tied to 6 or 7 players. It’s hard to make a team good when 2/3 of it make closer to the league minimum than the league average. Unless Sansy pulls off a miraculous trade, 2013 is going to be another stinker. I just hope 2014 turns out better when they have a lot of payroll coming off the books and 50 million in extra MLB television revenue coming into their pockets.

I’ll say this: in 2014 Bay and Santana’s contracts are done. That’s goodbye 50 million. Then they get the new television money that’s another 50 million(which every team will start to get). If they still are pinching pennies instead of fielding a good team, nobody better start pointing at the front office.

That would be yet another knife in the backs of the fans by those rascals the Wilpons. 100 millions dollars not otherwise available until 2014… Lets hope they get this team back into the free agent market. Whereas I like building a much better minor league system and also would love as many homegrown players as possible, a NY team should be able to plug whatever holes nesessary to field the best team possible.
- LA Met Fan October 30, 2012 at 11:55 pm
  
  When Bay and Santana are gone, Wright and Dickey and Davis/Niese will be making the big bucks and more than those two. Alderson’s waiting, or I should say Mets fans are waiting for flexibility that isn’t coming. Some of you are drinking the Koolaid.
  - Donal October 31, 2012 at 2:01 pm
    
    Niese won’t be making that much. And Davis hasn’t proven what a lot of people are assuming about him. He needs to have a big 2013 to get his payday.

NL East Standings

Team	W	L	Pct.	GB
Braves	24	18	.571	-
Nationals	23	20	.535	1.5
Phillies	20	23	.465	4.5
Mets	16	24	.400	7.0
Marlins	11	32	.256	13.5

Last updated: 05/18/2013

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