4
2012
The Baltimore Orioles Are Defying Baseball Logic
An article by 
It’s September 4th, and the Orioles find themselves one game out of first place in the American League East. That statement, on it’s own, isn’t too ridiculous. It’s when you start looking at the stats that make that statement look ridiculous.
The Orioles are not a good baseball team according to the stats. In fact, if you were to look at the league statistical rankings, before looking at the standings, you would think they stink. They’re currently in the bottom half of teams for offense and defense, and the pitching is in the middle of the pack. It begs fans to question how this team is winning ball games.
I decided to look further into this anomaly, so I skipped over to fangraphs.com to see if there was some sort of statistic that could explain why the Orioles were winning so many games this year. I found a statistic that, according to the sabremetric community, is supposed to provide the the most complete, and overall best analysis of both a player and the team. That statistic is Wins Above Replacement (WAR). I’m not going to go into detail about what WAR is, but if you would like an explanation of this statistical category, click here .
Finally, I thought to myself, I will find the answer I am looking for as to why the Orioles are playing so well this year. Their WAR must be off the charts, and that will explain everything. Boy was I wrong. Very, very wrong. The Orioles WAR isn’t just bad, it ranks in the bottom of the league. The only two teams with lower WAR, are the Cleveland Indians, and Houston Astros. So now the Orioles have not only defied our traditional baseball statistics, but also flipped the bird (no pun intended) to the sabermetric community.
What are we going to do about the Orioles? They’re defying baseball logic! They’re like Maximus Decimus Meridius defying the emperor in Gladiator. Something has to be done!
The Baltimore Orioles have their eyes set on the post-season. Statistics are supposed to give us a glimpse into why a team is successful or not. The Orioles laugh at that notion. Throw statistics out the window in the case of the 2012 Baltimore Orioles, they are irrelevant. However, the odds are that those statistics will catch up to them, most likely in the post-season, when playing against a superior opponent. With everything at stake, the post-season is generally the place where fairy tales end. The post-season is usually where these unlikely teams’ weaknesses get exposed. Then the baseball traditionalists smile and say I told you so.
The Orioles have the great baseball minds scratching their heads. They have fans of other MLB teams jealous that the Orioles are doing something that their team can’t – win. And the Orioles are throwing their hands up shouting are you not entertained?! Yes Baltimore, very entertaining. The baseball gods are smiling on you. There is no explanation for what the Orioles are doing this year except that’s baseball for you. The inexplicable things that happen are what makes this game great. We try to make sense of it all with statistics, but there are situations when not even statistics can help. That is the case with the 2012 Baltimore Orioles. And with the playoffs right around the corner, they better make a call to Jeffrey Maier and see if he’s available.
About the Author: Mitch Petanick
Mitch is currently an Editor and Minor League Analyst for Mets Merized Online. His baseball experience includes being a former All-Conference collegiate baseball player who had numerous professional tryouts, and he is currently a hitting instructor. He has been involved with the game of baseball for over 30 years now as a player, coach, and consultant. Mitch is also a former Featured Columnist on Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @FirstPitchMitch.
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A couple things about WAR
1) There are at least 3 widely used versions (fangraphs, baseball-reference, and baseball prospectus)
2) not all proponents of sabermetrics like to use WAR and related stats (I’m one of those)
3) It can be used to figure out an individual player’s overall value, but you can’t apply it to a team.
But, ya, its fun to see Baltimore buck the odds. Nobody, statistical or mystical, can explain how they are doing it.
“And with the playoffs right around the corner, they better make a call to Jeffrey Maier and see if he’s available.”
He certainly owes them one.
WAR could be the worst metric ever constructed! LOL
A player who reaches base on an error is considered more valuabe than a guy who has reached base the same amount via a HIT!
Just rediculous.
It is a metric that bias has skewed to make guys who get on base seem as good as guys who hit for power or score runs.
So to see some of why Baltimore has been successful look at the HR totals!
They are 5th in the entire league in that category. That won’t traslate into thier WAR because a HR is only weighted about twice as good as reaching base on error or getting a single.
I’m not sure what they key to thier winning actually is as I don’t do team comparisons until the season is over but I bet their HRs are some part of the key to thier success.
They are near the 11th worst in Runs allowed and second in the league in innigs pitched which might suggest they play a lot of extra inning games where the Long ball team has the adavantage in almost every case!
Hi Mitch,
Yes, everyone expected the Birds to fold around the all-star break and they were just another example of a team playing over it’s head – doesn’t that sound familiar?
And last year the team won just 69 games and the year before that just 66. They happened to win only 64 games in 2009 and didn’t fare that much better the season before that. And they play in a tougher division where this season the third place club is 13 games above .500.
Yet despite how many consecutive years not even cracking the 70 win total,.it just shows what a smart general manager can do instead of waiting for prospects to develop The team is made up of some brought up through system but many that were acquired through waivers, free agent signings and trades over the past two seasons.
That includes four key relievers leading up to their closer Jim Johson (Ayala, Gonzalez, LIndstrom and Strop), two starters in Chin ahd Jason Hammel and three full-time position players in Hardy, Davis and Betenit.
And how could a team being 7th in the league in pitching (with excellent relief pitching) exploit that one decent strength when being tenth in the league in scoring and 13th in fielding pecentage? Just shows that stats cannot at all be emblematic of how well players blend in together and play as a team.
You are also ignoring Jones, Weiters, and Markakis.
And Chen was an IFA, so he’s a product of their scouts as well.
” Just shows that stats cannot at all be emblematic of how well players blend in together and play as a team.”
Or it goes to show there is no perfect predictor and statistical anomalies happen. Of course, where statistical analysis has failed, mystical analysis still has no better answer.
Hi Donal,
I think at the time I wanted to focus just on the players acquired during Sandy’s watch and not before to give both franchises a starting point.
I think Baltimore had a much tougher job ahead than the Mets did after 2010.
I’m sure you want to do so, you simply can’t. There is no way to separate Baltimore’s success from their best players.
You can’t start off cold with a season since a season does not exist in a vacuum. It is a culmination of the seasons preceding it.
And all the claims you make about Alderson apply to Dan Duquette as well. And apparently a few personality disorders on top of all that.
Hi Donal,
If we don’t go by the time Sandy started with the Mets to say say that Baltimore already had good talent already there, then look at the talent the Mets new general manager inherited:
- David Wright
- Jose Reyes
- Ike Davis
- Angel Pagan
- Carlos Beltran
- Daniel Murphy (in the minors at the time)
- Jonathan Neise
- R.A. Dickey
- Mike Pelfrey (touted as the ace by Terry Collins)
- Francisco Rodriguez
Coupled with the fact the Mets had won 13 more games than Baltimore, I think we can say who had the definite advantage going for him after 2010.
Ya, OK. You go there and tell me Angel Pagan and Mike Pelfrey are corner stones for a major league team. And you think a pair of expiring contracts and a weak farm system don’t matter?
And I notice you didn’t mention Bay, Perez and Castillo. You don’t think those anchors affected the team?
I would rather have Pagan and Pelfrey to build around than Torres and Ramirez any day of the week and twice on Sunday!
Donal,
We’re comparing what the Mets had going for them after 2010 to that of Baltimore. Baltimore is now one game out of first. And they started out much further behind the eight ball than the Mets. And they had less going for them economically not playing in the biggest sports market in the country – and the Mets having drawn 800,000 more paying patrons paying more than that of Baltimore.
http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4278:from-beer-to-tickets-to-hot-dogs-inside-the-2010-mlb-fan-cost-index&catid=26:editorials&Itemid=39
This more than evens out the $50 million higher payroll that the Mets had at that point and could have added to..
Wow. I wasn’t aware of Baltimore having 40 million tied up in 2 dead weight players like the Mets do. They’ve managed to work around that quite wll.
Quite well indeed. A little creativity can go a long, long way.
Lol. I was being facetious Maniac. Baltimore doesn’t have 40 million tied in 2 dead weight players. Their payroll while lower is distibuted much better.
You mean alll 6 Million is distibuted more evenly?
Really take away Bay and we have spent 6 mil less than they did!
Meaning they don’t have huge money tied up in 2 players. I think Markakis is their highest paid player at 12 mil and he’s not dead weight like Bay. Johan is another one. Without those 2 then we could add real talent instead of dumpster diving.
Sure but then again isn’t the entire point of this thread is Baltimore doesn’t really have any good players and are winning anyway?
If they have them they sure aren’t putting up the nuimbers to explain thier success are they?
Yes we get rid of Bay and just spend the 6 Mil we will be under them to be even we will have a much better team than them for the same money….
Statistically but maybe not on the field!
It’s not the money we have spent that is the problem. Wasted money is wasted and nothing you can do about it.
But spend to get better players and your not forced to play those expensive wastes of Roster space!
In my opinion, the Orioles are winning games through desire to win, we finally got a taste of it, and yes the team loves it. Buck Showalter has this team united and playing like muskateers, 54-0 when leading after the 7th inning, unheard of. Timely hitting in win or lose situations, in their favor, I don’t know the stat. Bull pen, well you know already, and the starters have gotten stronger, Chen, Gonzales, Tilman, now Wolf, Markakis is doing etremely well at lead off, and the defense has improved dramatically. Manny Machado has 3rd base defensed, as does Reynolds at 1st, the middle infield is also very good steady as can be is JJ Hardy and who ever plays 2nd, Andino, Feherty,or Quintinilla, Centerfield- Jones, Rightfield- Markakis, Leftfield- Mclouth, now do you know why we are winning, oh yeah, how can I not mention one of the best catchers in baseball-Matt Weiters, Chris Davis 3 dingers in one game, these guys are playing BUCKBALL one game at a time,one day at a time, do your job to the best of your ability or I’ll get someone who will, The BEST MOVE the Orioles made was the hiring of Buck Showalter, he’s a known winner and the proof is in your face right now.
The only two teams with lower WAR, are the Cleveland Indians, and Houston Astros.
WAR what is it good for, absolutely nothing!
Awesome post Mitch!
So here we have a team 13 games over .500 with a WAR that says they should be 20 games under .500?
Well when you base your statistical model on the invisible man aka replacement player, the boundary between reality and fantasy becomes a blur.
The whole deal with sabermetrics is so they can project which players should be drafted in fantasy baseball. It’s absolutely ridiculous and has nothing to do with the game that is played on the field.
Oh ya, because all of the Real Baseball Men had Baltimore at the top of their lists.
Give me a break.
Real baseball fans dont play with their computers and project who will do what on their fantasy teams. They just watch the games and see the drama unfold. Predictions and projections are for idiots who need a life.
Hi Maniac,
You aren’t the first person to mention “creativity” and that wasn’t me either. The individual who raised the point said that analysts only react to data.
Creativity is not a reaction but can be defined as a new idea based on imagination, insight and the courage to take risks.
Ain’t that the truth, brother.
Which has nothing to do with what Maniac or myself said.
But, to address your tangential point, you realize Alderson is known for taking a different approach that was (and still is by you and others) criticized because it wasn’t the way things were always done, right? In fact, you and others specifically criticize him because he doesn’t do things the way they were always done.
So, don’t sit there and tell us about needing creativity when you and others constantly lament the Good Old Days That Never Happened and try to bury people who do show actual creativity.
“In fact, you and others specifically criticize him because he doesn’t do things the way they were always done.”
Hardly the truth but you keep on believing that if thats what makes you happy… We criticize him because does things in a way that has never worked!
And so far what he has done here so far hasn’t worked either!
If Wheeler doesn’t turn out to be better than even Pelfrey you (and he) pretty much has NOTHING to show for two years of work!
But a nice little sucky team only an accountant could love!
Hi Donal,
Maniac and I not talking about the same thing? When somebody replies to me after the following exchanges and says: “Ain’t that the truth, brother”, I don’t think that means we’re talking about cros purposes..
Met Maniac September 4, 2012 at 8:38 pm
Real baseball fans dont play with their computers and project who will do what on their fantasy teams. They just watch the games and see the drama unfold. Predictions and projections are for idiots who need a life.
Reply
Joey D. September 4, 2012 at 8:46 pm
Hi Maniac,
You aren’t the first person to mention “creativity” and that wasn’t me either. The individual who raised the point said that analysts only react to data.
Creativity is not a reaction but can be defined as a new idea based on imagination, insight and the courage to take risks.
You can’t even stay on your own tangent.
I pointed out directly how you and others criticizing Alderson for doing things that are not the accepted norm.
I’d also like to know how Dan Duquette qualifies as “creative”.
Ya, you just watch and make claims after the fact. Never having to actually go out and make a claim. So easy for you.
” Predictions and projections are for idiots who need a life.”
You know you’re getting held to that. Not just the fact that you went and insulted the entire staff here, but that you’ve made predictions and will continue to do so.
Not to mention you also insulted a lot of Real Baseball Men as well as actual people with baseball knowledge.
Pray tell how do you make claims after the fact without ever having to make a claim?
I think we should hold you to that statement maybe…
defense is not that important. and they have been very lucky.
forget WAR. pythogorean record is much simpler. by that metric the orioles still suck. and they do objectively suck. they have been very very lucky. it happens.
Don’t ever go to Vegas dude…
They eat people alive and lick thier chops when they find someone who believes in LUCK!
There is no Luck! Luck is something someone involkes only when they have no clue what is/has happened because they don’t understand how the world REALLY works!
There is no luck just Odds and probability Luck is nothing more than an invented concept made by people who can’t explain reality!
I forgot to say that I do however love the concept you proposed though…
I mean Forget WAR it came out with the wrong answer and is complicated…
If your going to get the wrong answer anyway might as well use the simpler metric to get to the same wrong answer.
I do t believe in luck either. How about I use the word “chance”. You can flip a coin heads five times in a row, but you can’t do it over and over. The orioles suck.