14
2012
Projecting 2013-2015 ETA’s For Mets Top Prospects
An article by Craig Lerner
Lets have some fun today. 
After reading something Jim Callis said in his Prospect Chat on Baseball America yesterday, I was inspired to bring out my crystal ball and predict when we’ll see some of the Mets top prospect’s. But first take a look at this:
Wow, that’s a pretty optimistic view, and one that could certainly be construed as rushing one’s number one prospect. I’m not so sure I agree with Jim on this one. I’m sure we’ll see Zack Wheeler at some point next season, but saying he’ll probably be on the Opening Day roster is kind of pushing it.
Let’s play a little game, and see when you think we’ll see Wheeler make his Major League Debut as well as some of the other top Mets prospects. :
2013
- RHP Zack Wheeler – No matter how well he pitches in AAA, I don’t see him joining the Mets before June unless disaster strikes and someone like Dickey, Niese or Harvey get injured.
- RHP Jeurys Familia – The second the bullpen starts showing any signs of trouble, you could bet that Familia will get the call. How long he sticks around will depend on the results.
- RHP Jenrry Mejia – Depending on how well he performs this Spring, Mejia has a good chance to travel up north with the team to start the season in 2013. He’ll be a long reliever and spot starter.
- 2B Jordany Valdespin – If he’s not traded, Valdespin will have at least a utility spot nailed down with the Mets in 2013. There’s an outside shot he can win a regular job somewhere in the outfield, but it all depends on what Sandy Alderson does this offseason via trade or free agency.
- RHP Collin McHugh – He could be bundled in a trade this offseason, or he could be the Mets number six starter much like our old friend Nelson Figueroa, who kept getting the call when the Mets needed an emergency starter.
2014
- IF Wilmer Flores – If the Mets lose David Wright, the timetable for Flores moves up to 2013. If the Mets sign Wright to an extension, the Mets will try to make Flores the best second baseman he can be, and he’ll get plenty of work there next season. I see him as the Mets Opening Day second baseman in 2014.
- RHP Luis Mateo - The scouts are all raving about him and we may have caught some lightning in a battle with this Dominican import. At 6-3 and 200 lbs, this 22 year old is a control artist who throws hard and has a power slider. Remember the name.
- C Kevin Plawecki – This might be a little ambitious, but I see great things for Plawecki and I believe he will progress through the system very quickly. The Mets need some help quick and even if they bring back Kelly Shoppach, he’s still nothing more than a stopgap.
- CF Brandon Nimmo – I’m not sure if he’ll be a center fielder, but I’m quite certain he will come up and make an immediate impact. His high ceiling was why Nimmo was drafted in the first place, and he has shown already some glimpses into what an exciting player he’s going to be.
- IF Phillip Evans – He wasn’t particularly spectacular at any one thing, but he was very good in a lot of areas. He’s not a sure thing, but he could become one if he steps up in 2013. The scouts all love him.
2015
- RHP Michael Fulmer – Fulmer already has a great arsenal that includes a plus-plus fastball, a plus slider and an improving changeup. He has a closers mentality on the mound and a seriousness about him that is very similar to Matt Harvey‘s.
- SS Gavin Cecchini – I’m not sure what the wind-up will be with Ruben Tejada, but as soon as Cecchini is ready, there will be nobody in the Mets organization holding him back from becoming the team’s everyday shortstop for the next ten years.
- C Camden Maron – If this kid could add just a little more pop to his bat he’d be perfect. After a .300./.403/.408 season he got my attention. Now lets see if he can keep it.
- RHP Rafael Montero - Montero is coming off of a monster campaign in 2012 and quite possibly had the best overall season of all the Mets pitching prospects. The more you try to look away, the more he does to grab and keep you attention and now even Baseball America can’t stop talking about him.
- OF Vicente Lupo - Could be that we’ll see this amazing talent in one of the short-season leagues in 2013. He’s someone to keep an eye on after a .345/.500./608 season in the DSL. Tongues back in your moths everybody.
Final Thoughts
You may be wondering where prospects like Reese Havens, Juan Lagares, Matt Den Dekker and even Kirk Nieuwenhuis are on my list. Honestly, they don’t fit my definition of top prospects. Maybe one day one of them will get a chance to eke out some playing time in the majors, maybe not. The point is that neither of them will be difference makers and I wanted to focus on prospects who have a good chance at making an impact at the Major League level.
There’s plenty of great prospects I left out like Aderlin Rodriguez, Hansel Robles, Jack Leathersich, Cory Vaughn, Domingo Tapia and a host of others. Lets see what you think their ETA’s should be. I look forward to seeing some of your responses on this thread.
Think you can do better? Show me!
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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This is a great list and a great post, however I think Wilmer Flores is a lock for 2013 regardless of the David Wright situation. I don’t think Danial Murphy will be here next season and Flores will be on the fast track. Other than that I enjoyed your insights very much.
I agree about Flores. he will be up at some point in 2013. Way too many scenarios of course to know exactly when and where he plays, but it should be mid year or so.
and I don’t think Nimmo in 2014 has a chance. more like 2015 later in the year? Of course he could be a rocket up the system guy, but realistically 2 more full years in the minors, then the year after that in play for the majors.
Great job!
2013
RHP Zack Wheeler – I see him there next year too.. Not sure when, could be june or April.
RHP Jeurys Familia – why assume he’ll be in the bullpen?? DS
RHP Jenrry Mejia – I think this FO screw him over. i think he’d be traded, but if not he’d be a spot starter or bullpen guy
2B Jordany Valdespin – Trade chip, the kid has potential, but needs to cave in
RHP Collin McHugh – I’m sorry, this kid has showed me nothing.
IF Wilmer Flores – Should be here by july or september call up, will be 100% manning 3rd base in 2014
2014
RHP Luis Mateo – Unhittable type stuff with CONTROL. Hmmmm, how can you not love this kid?? He’s the Dominican version of Zack Wheeler
C Kevin Plawecki – Maniac told me he’d be good and is impressive, I take his word.
CF Brandon Nimmo – Guess this is about where i expected him to be. 2014 sounds about right, my thought however is, he’d be a RF.
IF Phillip Evans – This guy is not impressive at all. Sorry to be a downer, but no speed, no power, defense is a ? mark, why would the mets worry about this kid? Pass.
2015
RHP Michael Fulmer – He may be ready before that imo. Good stuff and a bulldog mentality SS Gavin Cecchini – He’d be the perfect back up to ruben tejada. which was his projection by scouts.
C Camden Maron – Pete can give better insight here, not sure what to make of him to be honest
RHP Rafael Montero – Kid can be real good.
Juan Lagares, Vaughn, Decker and Gilbert Gomez arre going to be my breakout players.
DOMINGO TAPIA….. That’s all i am gonna say!
Liked your list, disagree on Lagares though and Familia wont get traded IMO..
Jetsmets (Feel sorry for you
) i think lagares will be a good asset to us. it seems he hasn’t been able to put it all together, but i think he’ll rebound next season…
I agree with alex about lagares. definite breakout candidate.
disagree on Ceccilini. He was not projected as a back up. The guy was on the pre-draft rankings as a top 20ish draft pick. That is not a backup at best.
no guarantee of course, but his upside is starter.
Hey Alex here’s a nice read you’d be interested in
http://thesacrificebunt.com/240/padres-101-rebuilding-through-the-draft/
Alex,
For the most part I like your list and agree with you. The exceptions are:
“RHP Jenrry Mejia – I think this FO screw him over. i think he’d be traded, but if not he’d be a spot starter or bullpen guy”
He got screwed over by the Minaya/Manuel regime. What they did to him is a crime and I feel he’s just now starting to get it together. This FO has been conservative with him.
“CF Brandon Nimmo – Guess this is about where i expected him to be. 2014 sounds about right, my thought however is, he’d be a RF.”
This is extremely agressive in my opinion. I agree he will be a very good player but I think 2015 is more like it for him based on the whole Wyoming factor.
“SS Gavin Cecchini – He’d be the perfect back up to ruben tejada. which was his projection by scouts.”
I disagree! I think he will be a starter and a very good one at that. I do see 2014 as a bit too soon. 2015 in more like it for me.
Love this list, nice job. It kinds of helps put some things into perspective as far as our current roster goes and it’s got me convinced that we shouldn’t go all in on a big name free agent beyond a two year deal. Really good job here Craig.
Completely agree here.
Nice job with this.
I’ll be curious to see if any of these names are gone in a trade this off season. I’m thinking some right now on the 40 man – such as Havens – will be coming off to make room for others.
just from the roster crunch, some of them almost have to go. Double that for needing to trade for missing parts (have to give to get)
Hey Craig, you’re rising fast on my list of favorite writers here. I really enjoyed your list. I’m not yet sold on Maron, and I dont share your enthusiasm for Phil Evans and thought he had a terrible season. I still love the post and give you a ton of credit for putting yourself out there with your predictions.
Really shocked at that Jim Callis quote. Excited too, but mostly shocked. If that does happen, the old argument that Minaya rushed his prospects, vanishes.
OK so lets assume that Callis is correct and he is in the opening day rotation. Who isn’t then?
Dickey, Johan, Harvey, Niese, Gee????
Dickey is traded, of course! I think seeing Wheeler on the opening day rotation is not a reality. At the very least, they’ll wait until they don’t have to worry about Super 2 status.
This post has chutzpah! It’s a breath of fresh air. As we look to the future we can still dream of better times ahead. Excellent stuff Lerner!
Great post! I agree with pretty much all of the projections, even Evans. I think it was just a 2nd year dip for him. (Remember, people were down on Wilmer Flores last year after a substandard season.)
The only addition I would make is adding Aderlin Rodriguez to the 2014 list. He’s really the only true power hitting prospect in the system and has opened some eyes this season at what is still a very young age for a Hi-A player.
Aderlin Rodriguez isnt the only TRUE power hitter in the system. Theirs also Cory Vaughn and Travis Taijeron who have both hit for power every year theyve been in pro ball. Aderlin however has the highest upside do to his age and production thus far.
Vaughn’s only flaw is his batting avg. his power numbers are there, Also his OBP has never been below .351 and the not to mention the 6’3 225lb big man has good speed and can steal bases. Vaughn also plays every OF positions although he wont stick at the CF position in the majors. While Vaughn can cut back on strikeouts it isnt a big deal because he doesnt strikeout at an alarming rate for a power hitter. In my opinion Vaughn projects as a LITE Giancarlo Stanton……Key word there was LITE for anyone that wants to say I was attempting to compare him to Stanton. Not at all…Vaughn should start next in Double A
Taijeron has hit for power and an High OBP,SLG% as well at every level but struggled mightily when promoted to St.Lucie. More than likely he starts next season in St.Lucie with Aderlin. Although Travis was drafted just last year he is older 23, so he needs to pick up the pace and not have anymore setbacks like he had in Port St.Lucie.
The power on the farm is depressing but there are some kids in Kingsport,DSL and Brooklyn with power potential Tomas Nido, Diehl, Plawecki, Eudy Pena,VIncente Lupo, Stefan Sabol(Troy Polamalu’s cousin),Elvis Sanchez….hopefully Sandy and DePo use there Draft picks this year and actually SIGN them.
This was a solid post.
Great post but I’m shocked you think of both Den Dekker and K-New as non impact players. They have been hyped as such for like two years. I gotta think one of them is our centerfielder next season.
Both were projected as 4th OFers. Neither one of them can touch LHP. Den Dekker can win a gold glove in CF but his bat is iffy.
And Kirk DID make an impact when he was called up. He provided a spark to the team with his outstanding play in the OF and timely hitting.
He cooled off, but I think with more experience and coaching he can fix his problems at the plate and be the impact player that we all saw when he first came up.
Craig I think you may have flip flopped Montero and Mateo’s eta’s. Montero will probably be 2014 and Mateo 2015 but both guys have amazing upside. No way in hell I see Nimmo or Evans up before 2015. Evans didn’t have a great season but I wouldn’t be fooled by that. The kid has a ton of talent. Flores will be here at some point next year. Just wish he had a clear cut position. Wheeler I don’t see on the opening day roster unless someone is injured.
Good to see our General Manager Sandy(From Queens) incognito asking Jim Callis advice on Wheeler….lol…
I doubt Luis Mateo gets here in 2014 ahead of Rafael Montero. Montero is already dominating in High A+ and Mateo is 2 levels below in SS.
I do however think Mateo will rise quickly but I dont expect him to skip over Montero who’s rising through the system like Jenrry Mejia did before him.
I also see Jeurys Familia, Wilmer Flores, Reese Havens and Juan Lagares making their pro debut in 2013 partly because all will be in Triple A next year and also because this will be there 2nd full season on the 40-man roster. Sandy needs to see what he has in them sooner rather than later. MLB wont allow teams to hoard prospects anymore so you either use em, or lose em’
Outfielder Cesar Puello is also an interesting name who’s been living off of potential far too long and needs to show production now this coming season or risk being forgotten like Jefry Marte.
havens may not even be on the roster next year, if they run out of room
Nah they wont just let Havens go he still has value surprisingly and has showed above avg talent when healthy guys like Lutz will get the boot if room is ever a problem.
No offense, but a lot of this seems way off to me.
Flores will likely start the year in Triple A, which would make him likely to get the call-up to the big leagues at some point next year, worst case scenario in September.
You say that Plawecki in 2014 might be a bit ambitious (which it likely is), and then immediately pick Nimmo for 2014 as well? That’s way too optimistic. This front office likes to give players at least a half a season in a level before advancing, and they have to be playing pretty damn well (or they have to have been at the same level for a fairly long time) to get that mid-season call-up. Basically, Nimmo would have to dominate A ball for half of 2013, dominate A+ ball for the other half of 2013, dominate AA ball for half of 2014, and dominate AAA ball for the other half of 2014 in order to have a chance of barely making your prediction accurate. 2015 is a safer bet, and even that might be a tad bit optimistic. And all of the above applies to Evans as well.
Montero in 2015? That just makes no damn sense to me. He’s gonna be 22 years old at the start of next season, and he’ll either be in Double A or incredibly close to it. He should be ready by 2014, easily.
And I don’t understand why you’d list Camden Maron (AKA Josh Thole Jr.) as a top prospect and not guys like Tapia and Rodriguez, both of whom are clearly better.
Wow….you guys are way too optimistic. Nimmo an “immediate impact”? Maybe, but I would go as far as solid regular and no more. Plawecki and Evans I also saw this summer. Both are mediocre. Evans is a total butcher in the field. Plawecki cannot throw anyone out. Cecchini – who the hell knows at this point, but I hated that pick when Hawkins was right there.
I would guess in the entire farm we have maybe three or four solid major leaguers – Montero, maybe Fulmer, Nimmo and probably Flores. Of course with Flores we don’t know his position. Cam Maron is awful. On base skill and nothing else. Puello, Lagares both suck. Puello will bust, Lagares may become a back-up in the bigs if everything comes together. Den Dekker and Vaughn will both bust – they can’t make anywhere near enough contact.
Lupo – I agree – is exciting. But we really can’t know anything until he is stateside for a year.
I haven’t given up on Cory Vaughn challenging for 1 of the corner OF spots in 2014. I am also curious about Alonzo Harris. I read somewhere that a couple of scouts compare him to the late blooming Michael Bourn, at least offensively. And I certainly wouldn’t mind having a pest, speed, SB catalyst element atop the Mets batting order once again where obviously the Mets offense needs a boost and another dimension especially at Citifield.
I agree totally with Matt….on everything. Picking Gavin when Hawkins was there was as stupid a pick that they EVER made. Hawkins was the right choice…or McCullers. Other then the pitching, this system sucks.