7
2012
My Thoughts On MLB’s Mets Top 20 Prospects – Part 1
An article by 
Yesterday, I took at the newly updated Top 20 Mets Prospects list by MLB’s Joey Nowak and Jonathan Mayo. I was very disappointed to say the least, and it didn’t look like much thought was put into it. Some of their choices were way off and hard to justify. Reese Havens at number 8 was laughable, and Gavin Cecchini at number 6 seemed like a poor attempt to drum up some extra clicks and attention. Sure Cecchini belongs on the Top 20, but not at number 6, not yet. So anyway, here are my thoughts, and at the end of each of their picks I included who I would have chosen.
1. Zack Wheeler - RHP – ETA: 2013
A great start and one that I whole-heartedly agree with. Wheeler has made his case for being the Mets top prospect and in fact, as Adam Rubin said on our Radio Show yesterday, “If Dylan Bundy is the top pitching prospect in the majors or even 1A, Wheeler is good enough to be 1B, he’s that impressive”. He still needs to work on his walk rate and his overall command, but Wheeler is the real deal and is significantly better than Matt Harvey in many ways. My #1 Pick: Zack Wheeler
2. Matt Harvey – RHP – ETA: Major Leaguer
This is kind of lame pick and a throwaway. If you’re going to update your prospect list to reflect changes and promotions from this season, how could you still have Matt Harvey on it? Harvey is a major leaguer who could become a solid number three starter type like Jon Niese in time, maybe a number two type on a small market team (like us?). He’s been up and down this season, but he’s in the majors to stay and will get better as his confidence builds and as he learns to trust his secondary pitches more, which are MLB caliber. My #2 Pick: Wilmer Flores
3. Jeurys Familia – RHP – ETA 2013
I’ve never viewed Familia as anything more than a reliever with a power arm. His high-nineties fastball runs in on lefties and righties cant catch up to it. His secondary offerings have shown meager improvement and none of them are plus pitches – not even close. Number three overall prospect? Really? No way, not in my book. That doesn’t mean he won’t be a good addition to the bullpen some day. My #3 Pick: Brandon Nimmo
4. Wilmer Flores – 2B/3B – ETA: 2013
Wilmer Flores is a star in the making. He may not have a permanent home defensively for now, but that will come in 2013. This kid could rake with the best of them and he knows how to adjust. He had a .799 OPS in 64 games in High-A St. Lucie, then gets promoted to Double-A Binghamton and improves to an .855 OPS in 65 games, unreal. He just turned 21, his power is growing, and he’s a natural born run producer. Flores could be one of the best position players to emerge from the Mets system since Wright and Reyes. He should be ranked number two and I agree he’ll make his MLB debut in 2013, but not until August or September . My #4 Pick: Rafael Montero
5. Brandon Nimmo – OF – ETA: 2014
I love Nimmo, this kid has impressed the heck out of me. I wasn’t a huge fan of the pick at the time, but the little I’ve seen of him and all the raves I’ve heard from Pete about him are enough to convince me we have something special here. He is cut out of the same fabric as David Wright and one day he will be the face of this franchise and as beloved as #5. Did you hear our exclusive interview with Brandon Nimmo last week? Check it out and you’ll learn why I’m so high on him. On my top 20 Nimmo is number three right behind Flores. My #5 Pick: Michael Fulmer
I’ll have my thoughts on Pick’s 6-10 posted Saturday, 11-15 on Sunday and 16-20 on Monday.
Let me know what you thought of MLB’s choices, and whether you agree or disagree with mine.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
38 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
Last updated: 06/19/2013
Recent Comments
- K Maxx: on Mets Acquire Eric Young Jr. For Collin McHugh, DFA Cowgill and Promote Brown: There was only one GM who excelled...
- Joey D.: on Where Does Wheeler Rank Among Best Mets Pitching Debuts?: Hi Joe, I agree with Alex and would...
- El Sid: on Mets Acquire Eric Young Jr. For Collin McHugh, DFA Cowgill and Promote Brown: The Oakland A's have the best record...
- Poconos: on Wheeler Deals, Mets Sweep Braves In Nightcap, 6-1: I know right. Its amazing we havent...
- Matt: on Mets Acquire Eric Young Jr. For Collin McHugh, DFA Cowgill and Promote Brown: Of course, since Lagaras is starting to...
Latest From Mets Minors
Check Out These Great MLB Links!
Photographs From Gordon Donovan
Fans Follow Us On Twitter!
1333 Fans Like Us On Facebook!
2341 Fans Read Our Feed!
1702 Fans Subscribe via Daily Email!
Man are we close Joe! I will be releasing my unofficial 2013 Top 20 Mets Prospect List next week, and although my spots may be a little different for many of the players than yours are, and totally unlike the MLB list, it’s amazing how much similarities there will be in your picks and mine. Nice job!
Rafael Montero number 4? Wow. Thats some guts sir. I don’t believe in his ability that much to expect him to thrive in the Majors. Tapia on the other hand has a big league arm regardless.
Btw Joe D, I strongly suggest you change the comment section to DISQUS. It’s a lot more convenient than any other comment machine out there and it allows for better tracking.
And is also blocked by about 75% of workplaces.
WILMER FLORESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
the CORE salute this kid… Shocking to see montero as your #4 Joe. My picks would be like this:
Harvey: after all he is in the majors and he’s doing a very good job.
Flores: Our own Miguel Cabrera possibly? Show his power this season, this kid will be a stud
Wheeler: Bust written all over him.Lol, Jk. His stuff is great, however Pray he keeps composure ny or things could get ugly quickly for SA’s biggest acquisition.
Familia: The guy THROWS Hard!!!!!!!! And once he finally learn how to pitch, look out baseball
Domingo Tapia: I know, i know, he has a long way to go. But this kid, Hmmmmmmm…. He throws harder than even wheeler or familia, has a nasty curve, his upside is insane… Ohhh, and just 19 years old!
That’s my top 5…
Flores is a great example of why preseason rankings (and MiL system ratings in general) are such a crap shoot. Prospects, especially the real young ones, often boom or bust in unexpected ways. Heck, before this year, plenty of people (including ones on this site!) were writing Wilmer off as a bust, never will be, etc. Now, he is hot stuff.
And Familia does throw hard. But, as Parnell can tell you (since he throws harder) that ain’t enough to thrive (even survive) at the ML level.
Well one thing to take notice on Flores is that he went from something the front office seems to loath to something that is actually a show piece.
He’s always been a good contact hitter that doesn’t strike out much but now he seems to have added the plate discipline tool as well that has also increased his hittable pitches and in turn increased his power. His OBP 50 points higher than last year and his SLG 114 points higher. Kid is learning to be a professional hitter.
Stick you nailed it yesterday. The comparisons to Alfonzo seem to be dead on and many can we only hope.
No.. Edgardo alfonzo my ass. the kid has a great bat and not much glove. he’d be a decent defender imo, alfonzo was a GG caliber type player who put up great numbers with all stars offensive players around him, you know, kinda like DW Lol..
Flores will be a stud!!!!
Wow Alex, Alfonzo was one of my favorite players. Go figure, LOL.
Lol, me too to be honest, he was a great clutch hitter imo and a very underrated defensive player. He’s one of my favorite players as a met too. But Flores IMNSHO flores will be our miguel cabrera. Let me shoot for the stars, and even if i miss it’s ok, because i’ll land among stars!
Me Too!!! I only went to one game this year and I was super amped when I found out it was Edgardo Alfonso Bobble Head Day. Alex, there may be hope for you!!!
my analysis (including a bunch of numbers) was specifically about his hitting. Very good comparison. I noted that Fonzi ran more in the minors (much more than in the majors) and of course was a better glove guy.
FLores showing more power at this point though.
Please google Domingo Tapia’s delivery and you’ll see why people are skeptical. Basically side arm. Still… could be useful in relief.
side arm??? Well, his projection is off the roof!! He throws over 100 MPH with movements and again, the kid can still finish developing his secondary pitches.. also, he has what some of our pitches who throw hard don’t. CONTROL AT THE MOUND!!
Lol….Tapia is not side arm its a 3/4 slot….
Can we let these pitchers develop before being nominated for bullpen duties???
Thats the problem nowadays everyone wants to change these pitchers. You drafted them with these pitching mechanics then you want to change them because of some theory. This is the same thing that was done to Zach Wheeler in San Fran and he struggled. Everyone is not built the same whats comfortable for one person might not be comfortable for others.
Thats why there are so many freaking crazy arm injuries today than there was in the past. These kids have pitched this way for the majority of their lives then when they come into the pro’s they want to change their arm slot, change this, change that.
They wouldve made guys like Ron Guidry, Fernando Valenzuela,Whitey Ford LOOGY’S in todays game.
Juan Marichal,Satchel Paige, Tom Seaver wouldve had there pitching mechanics changed in todays game.
In regards to being skeptical about a side arm delivery…. the man viewed as probably the best pitcher ever to play the game in the big leagues “Walter “Big Train” Johnson” pitched side arm….And he did it for “21 YEARS”, almost 6000 innings pitched in his career. He is 5th all time in Complete games, 1st in Shutouts all time and 13th in games started with “666″…I guess today he’d be nothing more than a relief pitcher….smh
That’s not sidearm but calling that 3/4 is a bit of a stretch too. I may be wrong but didn’t they used to call that ‘throwing across your body”? I agree with almost your entire point! So true about the LOOGY point. The only place I differ is on Seaver. Didn’t they say that he was one of the closest to perfect as far as mechanics go?
He can his 100… Finally the Mets are producing flame throwers
KY, the kid hit 100 MPH at 17 years old!! and he wasn’t even eating cereal then Lol…
Mayo does this ever year. He takes every teams first rounder from the current year’s draft and puts them in the top 1-6 spots for every team. Check it out, you’ll see. This all about MLB promoting the new crop of kids and less to do with an analytic prospect ranking that is meaningful. Nice to see you have Fulmer and Montero in your top 5, and the top 3 are no brainers. I wish you could have posted the whole piece at once though so we could see how the rest of yours compares to theirs, but good job so far. Are you considering Mejia as a prospect?
You would think MLB.com would have the resources to actually put out respectable lists. They would’ve been better off having scouts, or beat writers, or bloggers (anyone who actually studies and follows individual team systems) to make these lists. That said, the only thing I think they do right is make anyone who’s still eligible as a rookie, eligible for their list. This is why you see Harvey on the list.
That said, I think Wheeler is number one, they got that right. Under the rookie eligibility rules, you slot in Harvey at two. I love Nimmo, but you can’t pass on what an also young Flores is doing two levels higher. That bat will play, and after our next offseason of discontent, I’m sure we’ll have an idea of where they will send Flores in the field (if they trade him the people shall riot). Flores at three, Nimmo at four sounds right.
The first four to me seems pretty easy. Five on down is where individual opinions and preferences start to be clear. I sill like Puello’s tools, but do I like them more than what young Fulmer proved to be in 2012 and possibly for the future. Montero looks legit, but does he have more upside than Tapia? Can you completely throw out Den Dekker’s AA mashing because he struggled at AAA? All these and more questions come to mind I’m sure.
But for number five, I’ll stubbornly go with Familia. Yes he struggled, but seeing this is his age 22 season, I think you should expect that at AAA. There’s still much work to be done, but honestly a full season starting at AAA next year and he could still be a really good rotation piece as a 24 year old in 2014.
Joe your list complies with what I am about to say so GREAT JOB!
First off it is absoloutly DUMB to place a kid in A ball above a guy in AAA on any top prospect list.
If he was TRULY better than him he would be in AAA!
Your top 20 Prospects should be based on the top 20 guys who are closest to being MLB ready! Not who you hope will be MLB ready in 3 years!
Nimmo may eventually be a great player but who knows what he really is until he gets at least a year in AA where you can see just how close he is to being a AAA player and near MLB service?
These top 20 Lists look more like they were written by the marketing department not so much the Player Personnel side as it has little to nothing to do with what they have done, where they are in thier development and everything to do with who is most likely to get overhyped by the team whenever they are done developing and get brought up!
Maybe the better way to create these top 20 lists is to poll the GMs of all the other teams and find the 20 guys they most likely would make a trade for!
Then you will get an unbiased opinion on who is actually a prospect in this world and who is just a highly touted press release hoping to give hope to fans who see none at the MLB level because of where they were picked and hiding the fact that the organization needs to pump up the guy for fear of thier mistake being exposed (see FMart)
Havens has no business on that list right now or at best should be in the bottom 5. Very little chance he sees the MLB soon and with all those injuries doubtful anyone else will take a chance on him either.
And thats the classic definition of NON-PROSPECT!
Wait a minute… did you read the article? You praise Joe (which I agree, he did a great job) and yet say “First off it is absoloutly DUMB to place a kid in A ball above a guy in AAA on any top prospect list.”.
Did you not notice that Joe put Nimmo 3rd?
Yes I did! Nimmo is 5th!
5. Brandon Nimmo – OF – ETA: 2014
Joe put Nimmo 3rd.
Doesn’t change the fact that you praised him, said you agreed and then said it was dumb to place Nimmo on a top prospects list.
lol, You got him!
It happens, we all misread articles from time to time. Just want to make sure he notices that he actually has a very different opinion from Joe.
yep I did Misread it….But Joe still complied with what I said didn’t he?
He did dismiss a lot of AAA players but there is no one in A ball above a AAA guy on his list was there?
That is some insane logic!!! Manny Accosta was in AAA this year TWICE, does that mean he’s a better prospect than Tapia?
If Tapia never makes it to the MLB then the answer to your question would be yes now wouldn’t it?
Is F-Mart a better prospect than Valdespin? He was on the list and did nothing!
Better prospect than Valde?
Hmm tell me then TRS, Which AAA player got above Nimmo on that list?
HMMM?
Come on Metsie, you screwed up and admitted it. There really is nothing to debate here. You and Joe do not share the same opinion on this. It’s ok.
Lmao, Metsie, Joe somehow put nimmo 3rd!! But hey, i can’t complain about that, domingo tapia is a Class A
Yeah, prospect list will always shade more to potential than production. That’s nothing new.
Exactly… I’d be fine with tapia and nimmo #1 and #2 by the end of 2013 with wheeler, Flores, Mejia and Familia all in the majors!!
I think they only took out the prospects who’ve gotten enough big league time to qualify as rookies and put in some of the 2012 draft picks and otherwise left it exactly the same. Not sure why they chose to do it like that, but there you go.
Regarding Familia—
“His secondary offerings have shown meager improvement and none of them are plus pitches – not even close. ” Joe D.
WRONG!!! Familia has 2 plus pitches—-his fastball and his Slider. Everyone who has seen him pitch raves about his plus slider. The reason he is pegged for the pen by most scouts is his lack of control(which almost all young pitchers have) and lack of an effective off-speed pitch. His changeup is just a pitch that keeps hitters honest he throws it just to give hitters something to think about.
Familia struggles when he walks hitters if he throws strikes he’d dominate. Take a look at his career the only times he wasnt successful was when he walked a ton of batters. The only time his ERA wasnt under 3.00 was 2010 & 2012(this year)and both those years his BB/9 were high 5.5 & 4.8….
His control is his problem not his stuff, at one point there manager Wally Backman let it be known that Familia had better stuff than Harvey. Not saying one is better than the other but you’re wrong when you claim Familia is a one pitch pony and drastically reduce his value.
“His control is his problem not his stuff”
Exactly.
One question. Who are the pitching coaches in the Mets minor league system? Why aren’t they able to teach any of their up and coming prospects any plus off speed offerings?