MMO Mailbag: Will Johan Santana Have Any Trade Value This Winter?

An article by posted on September 12, 2012

Here’s a question from Peter R. who asks,

Will Johan Santana have any trade value this winter?

My short answer is no.

The long answer is actually just more questions than it is answers.

  • Why would a team deal for a pitcher who is owed $30 million dollars in 2013, especially one that was shelved in mid-August for the rest of the season?
  • What could you possibly expect back in return for such a risky proposition?
  • Why would the Mets eat 50% or more of that contract just so they could get a marginal prospect in return?
  • Is a marginal prospect who wont pitch this season or next worth $15 million dollars to the Mets or any other team?

In my opinion, the only way any team would take on that Santana contract “as-is” would be to include Jon Niese and possibly someone like Ike Davis in the deal as well.

A team would average out that $30 million dollars owed and look at it as two quality players who will be under team control for five years, plus a high risk pitcher with high upside in Santana, all at an average cost of $10 million dollars per player.

Now all of a sudden it doesn’t sound so bad for the other team.

This was sort of the same concept that the Red Sox used when they traded Adrian Gonzalez but also included a couple of albatrosses in Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett.

In this kind of a deal, the Mets might be able to walk away with two of a team’s top five prospects plus a decent major leaguer as well.

So on his own, Johan Santana has practically no trade value at all. But with a little bit of creativity the Mets can certainly come out from under his enormous contract (and Jason Bay’s as well), if they can find the right suitor to match up with and part with some players that would make it worth it to the other team.

You can email your questions to me at GetMetsmerized@aol.com.

About the Author ()

I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction and interact with other passionate Met fans like you. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.

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