20
2012
Kingsport Prospects Draw Not So Rave Reviews From Mike Newman
An article by Craig Lerner
Mike Newman of Fangraphs took a look at a few of the prospects that made their way through the Kingsport Mets this season. You may remember Mike from his former site “Scouting the Sally” which was always one of the preeminent minor bleague sites on the net. His opinion and insights on prospects from his own scouting and statistical point of views have always been highly regarded and his reputation is well known.
Here’s his take on 2012 first rounder Gavin Cecchini as well as teammates Branden Kaupe and Akeel Morris.
SS Gavin Cecchini: Not seeing him play shortstop certainly limits the look, but I’d be remiss to not mention his hit tool was better than I was expecting. From watching the video, it’s easy to see the swings weren’t pretty at times and pitch selection is still a work in progress. However, the couple of controlled swings he put on fastballs up in the zone both resulted in hard barrel contact. As his balance and weight shift improve, so should his pitch selection and consistency. Cecchini is unlikely to become an impact bat due to lack of power, but true shortstop prospects are difficult to come by so he does not have to be. In Savannah, I’ll receive a long look at him on defense and update the profile at that point.
2B Branden Kaupe: Jose Altuve was the first name to come to mind when seeing Kaupe take the field. The diminutive second baseman has similar quickness and thickness through the upper half. A switch hitter, the 18-year old has excellent bat speed from both sides of the plate and appeared to have an advanced understanding of how to work counts to his favor. He also showed 55 speed from the left side by running a 4.15 home-to-first time and could likely match that from the right side as well. Plus, he showed solid range at second base. With a .173/.358/.195 line in the Appalachian League, it would be easy to dismiss Kaupe. He’s a nice player though and a steal compared to the average fourth rounder I see in person.
Akeel Morris: Maybe the most perplexing arm in the lower levels of the system, Morris was considered a potential break through prospect entering the 2012 season. As a starter, he floundered finishing with a 12.90 ERA over six starts before being transitioned to the bullpen. As a reliever, his 1.13 ERA including a 27/10 K/BB ratio in 16 innings was a remarkable turnaround. In game action, Morris’ fastball was 90-93 MPH with improved command throughout the outing. The velocity was less than I was expecting and his max effort delivery, combined with a tendency to short arm the baseball definitely speaks to a bullpen profile. His breaking ball was a tight, 77 MPH curve which benefited from his short arm action. As a two-pitch reliever, he has some potential, but his days as a starter are likely over.
Closing Thoughts: In all, the Kingsport roster was void of impact talent from the players I saw. Tomas Nido would have been a good “get”, but he was not in the starting lineup which was disappointing. With the Mets promoting at a much slower rate than under the previous regime, it might be 2014 before I have the opportunity to see this group again.
Obviously, Mike doesn’t seem too impressed with the kids at Kingsport who did have a terrible season in the Appalachian League season with 23-43 record. Still, I’d wait and see how these kids do next season where competition takes on more meaning than it does at Kingsport which is largely developmental.
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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Yea Scouting the Sally was a good site. At that time they were one of the few sites that actually had up to date video of some the Sally league prospects. Speaking of which Craig I don’t know if you knew this but Mike recently posted some video on the 3 prospects discussed in your post. Check it out.
Gavin Cecchini
youtube.com/watch?v=_Kfvhw5lY4s&feature=share&list=UUQ-T_hHemS7VH8KnczDbJag
Branden Kaupe
youtube.com/watch?v=u26Cwo8UWEU&feature=share&list=UUQ-T_hHemS7VH8KnczDbJag
Akeel Morris
youtube.com/watch?v=2KdMcHNFpCw&feature=share&list=UUQ-T_hHemS7VH8KnczDbJag
Interesting so every single scouting reports that i have seen about Gavin is that he cant hit and probably never will yet he is a good prospect?!?! What does this mean?!?! EVERY MINOR LEAGUE HITTER squares balls up on occasion. If you’re telling me the good hitting Shortstops are somehow unicorns then i get it but come off it. This was a wasted pick with no upside! Most 19 year old hitter have some all of their balance in tact. You dont teach balance nor do you teach pitch recognition!! You have it or ya dont. The only thing hitter develop as they get older is patience and consistency. This was a horrible pick! THE END
Glevitan — “You dont teach balance nor do you teach pitch recognition!! You have it or ya dont.”
Balance is also improved by additional strength as a player matures. Pitch recognition usually improves with repetition, AKA experience. I think you struck out.
Most ROOKIE BALL squads don’t over-load “coaching” on skills,,,,they observe and give some general steering.
I’ll take great issue with Glev: Balance and Pitch Recognition represent the bulk of what a hitter adds to Talent to become a big leaguer! There are TONS of talented kids who never add the knowledge to help improve at bats…it also includes recognition of game and “IN AT BAT SITUATION”. The idea that 19 year old players don’t add these skills is tremendously uninformed. They don’t just hang around until they’re 24 getting bigger and older!…they get BETTER. They improve the skill side—the brain part.
I don’t know if GC was a good pick….doesn’t sound overwhelming, but the idea that he’s a flop?….that’s ridiculous!
We coulda had Courtney Hawkins but we took Cechinni with our first pick. We coulda had Joey Gallo or Lance McCullers Jr. with the first round Supplemental pick but we took Kevin Plawecki instead. Mets had a weak draft at a time when they’re trying to rebuild the farm system, and only signed HALF of all they picks they drafted. I still don’t understand what they were thinking in this year’s draft.
PGrizzly24 — Most folks who admit they don’t understand something don’t condemn it as weak. Leave it to the pros.
Des- when you are following the draft and reading various prospect websites profiling these amateur players pre-draft and post draft, and they all uniformly question the Mets strategy in this past draft, it makes me scratch my head and wonder what they are seeing in these players that everybody else does not. And i dont see how it can be defended that they failed to sign half of the players they drafted. There’s always going to be a few players in each draft that you dont get to sign for whatever reason (usually money or a strong college commitment) but not half. And our farm system is not in the kind of shape that we can afford to draft all these kids and only sign half. Otherwise, why draft them in the first place?
Cecchini is unlikely to become an impact bat due to lack of power, but true shortstop prospects are difficult to come by so he does not have to be. In Savannah, I’ll receive a long look at him on defense and update the profile at that point”
If that doesn’t spell BACKUP IF to you i don’t know what does….. Exactly what scouts were saying about the guy….
Which scouts, Alex? Identify them. Have you responded to what I think was ‘jessep’s’ request that you back up your words with facts. Or are we in for another long day with your baloney?
Des, would you had asked me the same if i would’ve said scouts are raving about the kid and going goo goo ga ga over him and his potential?????
So, can you answer his question? Where are scouts saying his ceiling is back up?
do a research.. i am not here to provide links for your pleasure. you have internet right??? Do your homework like we’ve done!
I did a search. No one says what you claim. So, since you are claiming something that seems to be false…what is the word for a person who knowingly an repeatedly does that?
Here’s how rational discussion works. You make a claim. If others would like said claim verified, it is on you to do so. If you can’t verify it, you stop saying (Actually you admit it but I know we have to go slowly for you). You say it, you back it up. It is not the job of others to support your claim.
Otherwise, I can say a bunch of goofy things and tell you to just accept it.
Too bad.. i found it and you didn’t… Funny, i am sure everyone predicted the draft of this team this year to be weak, confusive, weird and bad overall.. yet, the same people (SA’s apologist since i can’t use sl*** anymore) keep saying no it wasn’t.. SMH. People, stop it already ok. we’ll see in 4 years won’t we…
Alex, I’ve read scouts claiming Cecchini will be a sure fire MVP. No, I won’t link to them because I don’t have to. It’s your job to see I’m right.
Donal, well, in 4 years i guess we will see right?????
Wow, you missed the point so badly, you’re in another time zone.
Will you kindly answer the question I posed bellow?
You’ve never seen links to scouts speaking highly of Wheeler? If I provide some here, will you provide links to scouts saying what you claim?
Because you apparently missed it the first time.
Alex68 — I don’t honestly know, but isn’t what I would potentially do besides the point? My question to you deals with facts. Have you yet identified the scouts?
Thanks for responding in a civil manner. It really does make a difference.
again, i don’t see any of us asking for links when you guys come in here raving about wheeler do we??? again, in 3 or 4 years we’ll see who’s right and wrong.. many have said the mets were one of the teams that had the worst draft… not me.. the scouts and a ton of baseball people said the same… we’ll see in a few years right!?
You’ve never seen links to scouts speaking highly of Wheeler? If I provide some here, will you provide links to scouts saying what you claim?
Alex68 — Now would be a good time to stop with the references to ‘us’ and ‘you guys’. You write for yourself and each of us writes as an individual. You’re too old and hopefully mature to need other folks to think exactly like you do.
By the way, I NEVER wrote rave notices about Wheeler. I was curious about him but wanted to wait to see what he would do.
DEs, if you don’t fall into a category then why would it upset you?? If i say you losers, would you get offended? i don’t consider you one, but unless you are why would you get offended? that is how i have been able to identified certain group of fans in here.. From the snitches, to the sl****** to the sabergoons, etc..
Again, we will see in regards to wheeler, backupchini etc
Alex68 — Methinks when you speak for the CORE, you’re speaking for an active group on one person– yourself. So duck and weave, spin and role, as you speak for yourself. Regarding my the advice to acknowledge your solitary effort, you waste a lot of time for yourself and MMO readers with your pretensions. It’s not scary to have an individual opinion. Carry on, Alex.
“Cecchini is unlikely to become an impact bat due to lack of power, but true shortstop prospects are difficult to come by so he does not have to be”
Yeah who knows right Craig? One thing is for sure, a SS in today’s game isnt your 1990′s ARod anymore. They aren’t really powerful. They need a solid glove and to just be a good hitter at the dish. Nobody needs a 40 HR SS anymore.
You could have easily put Jose Reyes’ name in that sentence and I doubt anybody here would have argued he wasn’t a solid SS prospect. Not saying Cecchini will be Reyes – just saying a lack of power doesn’t mean you’re worthless at SS.
A. Escobar, Aybar, Andrus, Reyes, Castro, Cabrera, Tejada all quality SS with limited power
You’re correct Jessep. But some of the guys you cite have speed to compensate for some lack of power. Our guy at SS doesn’t. His potential is to be a Jeff Keppinger. When Keppinger was younger and played for the Mets, his range factor was similar and his fielding average was higher. (He has since slowed down.) After three seasons, our guy has a range factor and fielding percentage exactly at the league average. He also has a Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Average of ZERO. Wow!!!