24
2012
If Swisher Wants A Werth-like Deal, What’s Hairston Worth?
An article by 
Scott Hairston: 334 AB, .266 AVG, 24 2B, 19 HR, 52 RBI, .834 OPS
It has been widely speculated that Nick Swisher will be seeking out a deal similar to Jayson Werth’s seven-year, $126M contract, when he hits free-agency at the end of the 2012 season. I’m no mathematician, but that means Swisher would be making about $18M per year if he gets what he wants. Jason Bay made $18M in 2012, so it strengthens Swisher’s case, but I just don’t see him as a $15M+ per year player. And if Swisher is looking for this kind of money, it makes me wonder what Scott Hairston is really worth?
Scott Hairston? Why Scott Hairston? Because his numbers are surprisingly comparable to Swisher’s, and he had about 150 less at bats under his belt. Some would actually argue that Hairston has had a better year statiscally than Swisher because of that.
Nick Swisher: 497 AB, .260 AVG, 33 2B, 21 HR, 83 RBI, .802 OPS
He’s Swisher the sailor man…sorry couldn’t resist after seeing that picture of Swisher making his Popeye face.
Back to the evidence at hand – Swisher really only trumps Hairston in the RBI category, which is expected since he was on a team that scored a heck of a lot more runs, and he had more at bats to accumulate them with. Swisher also strikes out more than Hairston – 26.9% of the time for Swisher, versus 22.8% of the time for Hairston. So why is Swisher worth close to $20M per year, and Hairston closer to $4M per year? Better yet, why would the Mets even consider looking for a free-agent to play right field in 2013, when they already have a guy on their roster putting up similar numbers to one of the biggest free-agents that will be available at season’s end?
Re-sign Scott Hairston at a discount (compared to what Swisher will be getting), and make him the starting right fielder for 2013. Hairston isn’t perfect, but he has earned the opportunity to be an everyday major league player. If Hairston ended the season with about 500 at bats, he probably would’ve ended with a .250 avg, 30 HR, and 75-90 RBI. I’ll take that coming from a guy that will cost us less than $5M per year to sign. Leave it to the Yankees to pay Swisher triple the amount, for the same sort of production.
About the Author: Mitch Petanick
29 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
Last updated: 06/19/2013
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Because he is what he is. If you want to platoon him with Duda in LF that’s a huge bonus but playing him against RH everyday will not result in the numbers you have from him this year. If you play him everyday you are going to see much more of the .235 .283 hitter, most likely even worse as he would be exposed to the RH pitching even more.
An average batter’s PA, take Wright for example is 2-1+ RH vs LH, 430 vs RH and 203 vs LH. Factor that in and you are most likely looking at a guy with a .240 something BA, and a .280 OBP compared to a .262 .350 Swisher.
Again is that worth 16M more? Of course not, especially to the Mets but lets not try to say that Hairston is on the same level either.
I’d take Scott’s bat as an everyday player. He’ll dominate the lefties and be decent against righties. Give him 550 Abe’s and he’s gunna hit 25 hrs. & 85 rbi’s. 10 mill over 2 yrs.
What is your idea of decent against the RH?
Mitch, Disagree on this one, if he would’ve been a starting OF material he would’ve been by now, also, when he plays a lot he gets exposed more often than not. he’s the perfect platoon player imo to have. if we make this guy a starter, we’d be asking for trouble. he’d be exposed quicker than the replacement refs in the NFL
Right, what my question is what is wrong with having a platoon of Duda and Hairston in LF? Yeah you might have to pay Hairston a little more than you should a platoon player but Duda is free.
I can live with that for 1 or 2 years. Still have to add a full time OF though.
No doubt, that would just leave either CF or RF to obtain through trade or FA. You could go with Kirk in CF and bring in a RF.
The writer is not asking about a platoon. he’s saying we should make the guy the starting OF for next year because of what swisher is asking for.
Nope I’m saying he should be a starter because I think he’s earned a shot…and saying some team will be crazy to pay Swisher over $15M when Hairston put up comparable numbers.
Mitch — Scott Hairston gets terrible jumps on the ball in the outfield. I love the guy, but his everyday defense makes Angel Pagan look like Joe DiMaggio.
Watching that game yesterday with Hairston in RF as well as mostly all games with him in the OF, I’d say this is a fair assessment.
There was one single that dropped in front of him that I feel had he got a better read on it off the bat, it would have been caught.
There also was another fly ball in RF, a little towards center, that Hairston assumed was the CF’s ball. It wasn’t and he barely realized his mistake in time and grabbed it around his knees as it was coming down.
How does a player earn a shot with numbers that were achieved predominately against LHP only. That’s a recipe for disaster and we’ve had enough disasters with this team. Take it from one of the previous comments: if he had what it takes to be a full time player it would have happened already.
I was a major Hairston naysayer since he’s come to the mets…I just think his play has earned him a shot in 2013…he may not win the job, but he has earned the right to be in the mix.
Mitch, just because he succeeded at a small time he’s been here doesn’t mean he’d be exposed quickly. i am sure he’d hit 15+ HR in a season, but he’ll strike out a ton, post a bad BA and OBP, his defense is suspect to say the least and can’t run. how much you’d be looking to pay the guy
All I’m saying is that the guy has earned a shot…we assume he can’t play everyday, but he has never gotten the chance to prove or disprove those assumptions…maybe he will rise to the occasion instead of falling flat on his face like many speculate..but that’s all it is – speculation
We don’t just assume, we look at proof based on what we see when he faces a RH and what his stats are for this year and his career vs. RH.
Comparing Swisher to Hairston? SMH…I’m disappointed in you Mitch
The only batter that matches up anywhere close to Swisher on this team is David Wright whom is a level above Swisher.
Hairston had a surprisingly good year where he broke out, for a terrible team. Many players have had breakout seasons only to return back into mediocrity. I’ll give you one example and he is also on this Mets team…..ANDRES TORRES!!! 2010 He had a career best season and fans fell in love with him and from that day he held the starting spot in CF. But then 2011 came then 2012 and he reverted back to his norm. Mediocre at best 4th OF. Its not like Hairston is a Nelson Cruz type whom is blossoming late at 27 Hairston is 32. He is what he is a 4th OF/PH
I would touch Swisher and while Hairston isn’t perfect, he’s a valuable commodity who provides depth as several positions with power to spare. I’d bring him back for $4mil and see that he gets about 400 AB only sitting against the toughest righthanders.
What crazy team would give that kind of money to Swisher? $126 million for Swisher? That’s a ridiculous assumption and premise for this post. There’s no chance in hell Swish gets more than $50-60 million tops this winter.
Yeah, that’s the missing part of this. He may end up with a one year deal if he tries to pull that crap.
Why is it ridiculous to point out what a player is seeking? The premise of this post is that Swisher is not worth as much as he thinks, and Hairston is worth more than he gets credit for.
Mitch, the questin is how much you think he’s worth and how much he thinks he’s worth.. because, if he thinks he should be starting in the majors, he’ll want more money, pretty much done with the mets if that’s the case, i doubt sandy will pay this guy any more than what he’s paying him now. if he’s looking for a lucrative deal, he’ll have to go elsewhere.
“What crazy team would give that kind of money to Swisher? $126 million for Swisher? That’s a ridiculous assumption and premise for this post. There’s no chance in hell Swish gets more than $50-60 million tops this winter.” —–Old Backstop
Uhhhhh I dont think its ridiculous at all….afterall Mitch did give you an examplee of one player whom got it…..Jayson Werth and hate to say it but Swisher is a better player and not just a product of the banbox in the bronx since he also put up comparable power numbers in Cavernous Oakland coliseum. I also might add that contracts DONT get smaller over the years they expand. Big deals are no longer 5yrs 100mil+ they are now 10yrs 200mil+.
First off, the contract Werth got was a huge mistake..he clearly wasn’t worth that type of money to begin with. Washington was trying to make a statement at the time he signed but I bet you they regret it now. Now if Swisher believes he deserves that kind of money then he is absolutely mad, crazy or just flat out insane. No way should he get that type of money. He’s not that good.
Agree
They might have regretted it last year when he had a down year but I don’t think the Nats regret anything at this point considering the fact they have already clinched thier playoff spot and thats after shutting down thier ACE two weeks ago!
Werths contract isn’t really expensive until 2014 where it jumps to 20 Mil per. Currently he gets paid as much (if not less) than Jason Bay does!
He gets 16 Mil next season and who says they won’t trade him before that contract gets more expensive.
The difference between Swisher and Hairston is seen in the L/R splits!
Swisher
vs LHP 209 PA 44 H 6 D 5 HR 20 RBI .254 BA.370 OBP .376 SLG .746 OPS
vs RHP 369 PA 87 H 27 D 17 HR 65 RBI .266 BA .341 OBP .505 SLG .846 OPS
Hairston
vs LHP 186 PA 52H 16 D 11 HR 29 RBI .295 BA .328 OBP .574 SLG .902 OPS
vs RHP 173 PA 38 H 8 D 3 T 8 HR 23 RBI .235 BA .283 OBP .469 SLG .752 OPS
Hairston is the much better batter vs LHP no question but drops off significantly vs the more common RHP.
We tried to hide that by not playing him vs Righties for most of the season and it worked.
Swisher is pretty close to being the same guy vs LHP as he is vs RHP in fact he is slightly better vs RHP than LHP which we will see more often.
That makes him a much better batter off the bench than Hairston is as they know all they need to do is send a righty in and hairston is a wasted move.
Also being a switch hitter gives you more flexability for lineup placement.
In the end they both look like the same player based on the seasonal combined but the truth is you get those numbers vs both LHP and RHO with Swisher where with Hairston it is the LHP splits carrying the RHP splits and only because we hid him from his weakness by playing hiv only vs LHPs early in the year where he did most of his damage!
Hairston will get $$$$$ from an Amercian League team. He can spot start in the OF, be a reliable PH, and a formidable DH. He is no defensive gym and his arm is not even major league level. The Mets have a need for a real solid ALL AROUND OF’er. No disrespect to Hairston who has been a gem this year but not coming from a stunning array of gems. I would rather see Upton in CF, K Nu in LF, and Baxter in RF with Bay platooning with either based on who’s hitting. I am sorry but Hairston does not fit and will be exposed as others are saying as a full timer.
“It has been widely speculated that Nick Swisher will be seeking out a deal similar to Jayson Werth’s seven-year, $126M contract, when he hits free-agency at the end of the 2012 season.”
However, he will be willing to settle for a life time supply of Axe Body Spray and a collection of Ed Hardy shirts in his new team’s colors.