26
2012
From Bud to Beane – We Were Wrong
An article by 
As a fan it’s practically our job to hate Bud Selig, but say whatever you want to say – his plan has worked.
The second playoff spot has created the most interesting September I can remember.
Realistically in the AL you have 8 out of 14 teams with less than ten games to go and all still have playoff hopes.
None of the division leaders would dare choose to win the wild card rather than go all out for the division.
In the NL you have three divisions clinched and five more teams still with life. Atlanta should lock up the first spot so you’ve got one spot for four teams.
How do you think it shakes out? I still believe whoever wins one of the “wild card games” will win the World Series. I think it gives a team so much momentum heading into a playoff series.
In the NL, I’m hoping the Cardinals get in because I like the idea of a team rebounding from losing the best player and maybe manager in the sport and still getting to the playoffs.
In the AL, I am hoping Baltimore gets in, and personally I’d like to see Oakland get in. They both represent what is great about baseball.
I’ll tell you one thing – I know it’s practically a curse word here but you got to look at Oakland and tip your cap to Beane and his team.
That team is exactly why you can’t only judge a GM on World Series or bust.
The A’s play in a division with the two-time defending AL Champs AND a team many predicted would win it all after spending $300mil in the offseason and how were they successful?
Think about that for a second. The Rangers payroll is $120m, the Angels is $154m and the A’s are at $55m
So how did they do it? By trading away Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill and Andrew Bailey? Wait, what?
No seriously, how did they get where they are?
They beat the ever loving crap out of the ball, they were aggressive for Cespedes, they have an amazing bullpen and their young starters have 1 thing most young pitchers do not have, control.
Some will look at them and say “they didnt win it all, fail.” but they couldn’t be more wrong.
They once again proved naysayers to be wrong about whether or not that management style can produce a quality ballclub. I’m sorry but if you have bad things to say about how Oakland is presently built and performing then you are looking for a reason to be negative.
Look at their bullpen for a second.
Grant Balfour, a journeyman reliever who had a very nice season last year for them and at 34 is having an even better season. He’s not flashy, he doesn’t need a $17.5 million contract to close games
Ryan Cook (25), acquired in the deal that sent Trevor Cahill to Arizona. In 2011 he appeared in 12 games and gave up 6 runs in 7 innings. 2012 he’s appeared in 66 games, with a 0.95 WHIP and a 2.23 ERA.
Jerry Blevins (29), acquired in 2007 in the deal that sent Jason Kendall to the Cubs. From 2008-2011 he threw a total of a 137 Innings with an ERA of 3.55 and a WHIP of 1.31. This year, Blevins has 61 innings of work with a 1.10 WHIP and 2.66 ERA.
Currently injured Jordan Norberto (25), acquired in 2011 when Brad Ziegler went to Arizona. He appeared in 39 games this year with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP.
Sean Doolittle (25), 1st round compensation pick back in 2007. In 38 games he has an ERA of 3.32 and a WHIP of 1.13.
Jim Miller (30), a low budget free agent signing this winter. Miller appeared in 14 games since 2008 prior to this year. In 2012 he has 45 innings of work, a 2.40 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP.
They have also been playing quality defense. The book on Billy Beane was that he didn’t care about defense right? Well, you can toss that out the window now. This team fields the ball very well and helps a young pitching staff stay out of trouble.
Some have said that there is no more undervalued statistic in the sport. It’s possible that Billy Beane may have proven that theory wrong yet again.
If Beane figured out a way to predict a bullpen and accurately measure defense – then maybe, just maybe there is something everybody can learn from it. Only time will tell if that is the case though.
What I think a fan with an open mind realizes from watching Oakland should be is that in order to build a bullpen, it’s not about what you spend – it’s about finding the right pieces at the right time. A $17 million, or $6 million closer doesn’t mean they are going to perform any better than a league minimum player.
Rewind to March 2012.
If Sandy Alderson put together a bullpen that comprised of a 34 year old journeyman, a 25 year old with 12 games experience, a 29 year old with average numbers, a rookie, and a 30 year old league minimum free agent with 14 appearances since 2008 – he would have been called every name in the book by his critics.
I can promise you that, and they’d all be wrong. So don’t tell me you need to spend huge amounts of money to win, because we’ve seen countless teams prove that theory wrong. It’s about creativity just as much as budget allocation. Now, I hope to see some creativity in the coming years in Flushing.
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
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I like the 2nd WC for a couple of reasons. 1 is the potential for a Keystone Kops show when 3 teams end up tied for it, and they have to somehow sort out that tie breaker (I assume they have to play games, right?) mess before even getting to the play-in game.
but, it also puts a premium on the division. Remember the years where the Red Sox were a couple of games behind the Yankees in September, but locked into the WC? And they started resting guys, setting up for the playoffs, basically conceding the division and being good as the WC/ Well, that sure as heck isn’t happening with this system.
stick – I agree. I am sorry but I’m a Mets fan because I love baseball. I’m watching playoff races these days. Its been great tv lately. It’s going to come down to the wire just like last year.
Last year’s Games 162 was amazing.
Good article. I think Billy Beane has shown a good knack for making productive trades. Whether it be trading Mulder, Haren, Holiday, Gio, etc…, he gets back good pieces. He does very well at deadlines. What has hurt them is they have not drafted well despite finishing at the bottom of the standings more often then not post steroid era. What Beane does is not sustainable however. And a surprising year every once in a while doesn’t build sustained success. If you look at the surprise teams or playoff newcomers, they have one thing in common. Sustained losing for long periods of time – Washington, Baltimore, Oakland. Tampa broke thru 4 years ago after 15 years of losing baseball. Sustained losing means lots of high picks- Price, longoria, upton, Harper, Strasberg, storen, weiters, machado, etc
Don’t have to be a genius to pick those guys
Is that what we are going to wait for here?? Alderson and co will have to make better trades than the Torres trade as well.
Hi Jon – thanks for reading and writing!
I agree to an extent with you on the sustained losing creates opportunity. But, a few things about that.
Tampa Bay – TB actually lost for a while because of poor decisions. Look back at their roster moves, they tried to go with the George Foster approach of “sell tickets first, win games last.” and signed a bunch of aging superstars in hopes it would attract fans.
They didn’t get better until the change in ownership which lead to the changes in front office. The key to that was the change in their development program.
Tampa is a great example though, I love watching that franchise (partially because of my background)
They weren’t just drafting top players,
They were also developing guys and getting value out of trades from guys like
John Jaso a 12th rounder,
sean rodriguez (traded from laa in kazmir deal),
ben zobrist (acquired from houston in aubrey huff deal),
matt joyce (edwin jackson trade),
matt garza (delmon young trade),
jason bartlett (delmon young trade),
james shields (16th rounder)
rafael soriano (traded from atlanta)
and then they were finding a bullpen while not spending a ton of money on it. Look at their 2010 bullpen: Soriano, Lance Cormier, Joaquin Benoit, Dan Wheeler and Randy Choate.
They get the most out of their players when they are on the field because they have a great Manager – and they get the most out of their players off the field as well.
Drafting players is a crapshoot not because the picking is hard – its because the developing is difficult but Tampa took it a step further and found ways to trade for players that would later earn them an AL pennant.
Just goes to show that it’s not how much money you spend, but how you spend the money you have.
I have to admit that extra WC does lend to a longer race deep into September and many more teams still playing meaningful games. Just wish we were one of them.
LOL Jessup you never give up….
Bud did a great thing by expanding the Playoffs by two teams because it validates the Oakland Build Philosophy as one that works!
LouisCK couldn’t write better stuff!
You know if Selig expanded the teams that make the playoffs to 30 we could validate everyone’s philosophy as genius!
Question: Would Beane look so smart for trading Gio if Selig had NOT expanded the wildcard this year?
Hi Metsie – thanks for reading.
To answer your question, I believe the answer is yes.
Currently, Oakland is tied in the loss column for the wildcard if there is only 1 spot.
I’m sorry but you can’t tell me that any critics, or even his supporters would have said he has a 90 win roster in April. You can’t deny that a roster that looked like a 60-70 win roster is competing against Texas and the Angels and is right in the thick of things.
The issue I personally have with Beane critics is they take it to such extremes. They look for ways to poo poo anything about him. I’m not suggesting he’s my favorite executive, or I root for Oakland regularly. I don’t. I will tell you what though (and this is my words not somebody telling me what I think).
I respect the heck out of what he does with limited resources. I respect that he has an owner who doesn’t want to spend money and plays in a city that doesn’t care about his team and yet once again with a fraction of what most teams spend – he’s in a playoff race.
I respect him because fans are constantly looking to spend spend spend as though that is the only way to get a competitive team on the field, and once again you turn to Oakland and he shows you another way.
I don’t need to read a book or watch a movie to tell me the 2012 A’s are not a significant achievement for that front office.
How often did we as Mets fans (everybody) complain about where the money was spent or not reinvesting KRod’s contract or only signing small budget contracts.
Oakland proved it works. It is just about finding the right pieces at the right time. That’s as much a judgment on SA right now as it is praise for Beane.
But you can’t tell me it doesn’t work. Would you trade our 2012 season for Oakland’s? I would in a heartbeat.
Your completely ignoring the fact of what thier record would have been if Gio was winning 19-20 games for them instead….
Would they be tied for the one Wildcard spot or have run away with the division and clinched by now?
I can’t say the Angels will catch them or that Baltimore won’t flip with them for the last Wilcard spot before the season is done…
But you have to admit that the trade of Gio could have denied them from being the best team in baseball! Thier best starter has no more than 13 wins!
Does that really make Beane a smart guy?
For determining he didn’t need his best pitcher cause his team was so good to win he didn’t need a Cy Young pitcher to make the playoffs he could just slide in under Selig’s expanded playoff system?
Is that really what your trying to say here?
Anyway you slice it he was wrong!
Either he KNEW he had a 100 win roster and decided to make it a 90 win roster by trading Gio cause he didn’t need him….
Or he was wrong to think he didn’t have a good team and made it worse by trading Gio.
The issue of “…you don’t win because you spend money…” is both simplistic and over-played. Obviously spending blindly or stupidly will yield awful results. But please do remember, these guys play for money. And generally speaking money matters. So yes, it’s about spending smartly. It’s also about assessing your system and being creative enough to build it up. Oh and it’s also about looking at your assets, and being bold enough to move them to create future flexibility.
Proactivity and creativity go hand in hand with spending smartly. This is why people are frustrated. Our front office has failed on all three fronts in the last two years.
Yup, keep going back to the fact that the Mets did spend money this year. Their payroll is still among the leaders. However, due to circumstance that payroll is ineffectively assigned from Bay to Johan to FFF as well. There was little usable payroll to fix the plethora of issues caused by any number of factors.
Billy Beane must be a genius because Brad Pitt played him in a movie. He knows what losing sounds like. Billy Beane calls Brian Sabean not by his first name, but ” Saby Sabs”. That’s genius brothers. That’s how winners are built.
I’ll say this for Oakland when they traded Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill this past off season I did not think they would be where they are today or have made the run they have where since around early June they have posed a record close to 30 games above .500. The Orioles have been the bigger surprise to me but the A’s would be right behind them.