Sep
23
2012

Contract Predictions For Top 10 Free Agents This Winter

An article by 72MetsFan

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, spoke with an American League executive who gave him his predictions on what the top ten free agents could get this winter.

1. Josh Hamilton, Rangers OF (Prediction: $150 million, five years)

That $30-million-a-year guarantee would represent a record, eclipsing Alex Rodriguez‘s $275 million, 10-year contract (though A-Rod also has $30 million in historic homer bonuses). Considering the talent, that guess may not be too far off. Hamilton is said to want to be paid like an elite player, and he probably will be, though it’s hard to imagine him getting the length of the Joey Votto, Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder deals considering Hamilton’s history. Even in another brilliant year (42 home runs, 123 RBI), he’s had bouts with a sinus headache and chewing tobacco. The Rangers haven’t been one of those teams to go for the crazy lengths, so he’d likely have to settle for five years to stay (“if that,” one person in the know said about the Rangers intentions). One thing that could hurt him is that the Dodgersdon’t appear to be in need of an outfielder.

2. Zack Greinke, Angels SP (Prediction: $125 million, six years)

The executive started with the idea that the Brewers already tried at least $100 million for five years, and went logically from there. Greinke always has his own ideas, and one person who knows him said a few months ago he believed the Braves, Angels and Cardinals were the best fits, though the Cards seem well-stocked for pitchers. The Dodgers are a threat to get anyone good, and Nationals GM Mike Rizzo tried to lure Greinke two years ago with a similar $100 million bid. So that’s two for basically the same price he’s turned down. One thing about Greinke we know: he won’t go to a team unless he’s convinced they are ready to win.

3. B.J. Upton, Rays OF (Prediction: $60 million, five years)

There’s a debate about whether the Rays will make the qualifying offer of around $13 million, but execs believe they will since his very nice all-around season with 24 home runs and 30 stolen bases means he’ll get at least four years elsewhere. Actually, five sounds about right. It’s a pretty good center field market, though, with Michael Bourn and Shane Victorino also free agents.

4. Edwin Jackson, Nationals SP (Prediction: $55 million, four years)

He’s better than his 9-10 record. Isn’t he always better than his record, which is now 69-70 for his career. The 162 strikeouts and 1.18 WHIP are more emblematic of this durable still-under-30 pitcher. The Nats shouldn’t hesitate to make the $13-million qualifying offer, as he’s anxious to get a multiyear deal after turning down $27 million for three years from the Pirates to take $11 million for one. At this point, that sounds like a terrific decision. Though, I don’t see him matching the exec’s prediction, as there were similar early guesses last year that turned out to be too high.

5. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals SP (Prediction: $45 million, three years)

Lohse has quietly entered the Cy Young picture with a 15-3 record (it could be even better as several games were blown by the bullpen), and 2.71 ERA. The aim could be for a deal to beat C.J. Wilson who got $75 million for five years. But since he’s a couple years older, the guess here could prove more realistic.

You can read the rest of Heyman’s predictions here which includes comments on Jake Peavy, Shane Victorino, Hiroki Kuroda, A.J. Pierzynski and Kevin Youkilis.

The only names on the list that jump out at me are Upton and Victorino who would both fill an obvious need for the Mets right now. That said, even the two years, $25 million for the Flyin’ Hawaiian may be too much for his talents considering he is in decline. He’s not that interesting to me at that price tag, but I would be interested in 2/$15MM.

About the Author: Drew Staley

On June 1, 2012 Johan Santana officially became my favorite current Met! I'm a Queens native who grew up in the shadows of Big Shea. I was a huge Ron Darling, Dave Magadan and John Olerud fan. Honored to be a part of such a great site for Mets fans. Ya Gotta Believe!

9 Comments + Add Comment

Metsie September 23, 2012 at 11:42 am

I don’t see the Rangers giving Hamilton that kind of money. Especially considering how it ended the last time they did give that kind of money.

And I don’t get what everyone sees about Victorino the guy has never had more than 69 RBI and hasn’t hit above .280 since 2009
- jerseymet September 23, 2012 at 2:31 pm
  
  Victorino plays great defense. He is an all around ball player. How much better is he than Torres?
  - Metsie September 23, 2012 at 2:51 pm
    
    Hell YOUR better than Torres I bet! LOL
- Donal September 23, 2012 at 2:39 pm
  
  Texas is in a different place than they were in 2000. They are a far more complete team (what with back to back World Series appearances) and Hamilton is a big part of it.
  
  Also, there is the marketability issue. He’s not some mercenary chasing the big dollar. He’s an All American comeback story.
  
  While he won’t repeat his MVP performances, he’ll make up the difference.
- Fonzie13 September 23, 2012 at 4:57 pm
  
  Most of Victorino’s at bats have been out of the 2 hole and leading off, that’s why he’s not a high RBI guy. He’s also a 3 time gold glover. If you like Pagan, you’d love Victorino but he’s coming off a down year and is gonna want a 3-4 year deal. I’d stay away. We need more power.
Hodges14 September 23, 2012 at 12:03 pm

I had no idea Lohse was having such a good year. Never underestimate the power of the walk year. This free agent market sucks from a Mets standpoint if these are the ten best options.
Even Flow September 23, 2012 at 2:03 pm

The only ones that appeal to me among the ones mentioned on the list are Jackson, Kuroda and Peavy. I doubt Peavy will get 2/30 despite the good season. Let’s be advised this is the first time in 5 seasons he has managed to throw 200+ innings. I see that price tag down a tad. Kuroda? I’d be surprised if he left the Bronx. The man has always been consistent and consistently good. Shame the Mets couldn’t get to him last year when they had the chance. I’d take him for 1/12 if that’s what it takes. Jackson? Been a fan of his for the last 3 years and if there’s anyone you want to anchor your rotation, he’s your man. I love the fact that he has managed to temper down the walks (remember, this is a guy who used to be wild with a BB/9 of 6.2) every season although at times, he can be hittable.
Joey D. September 23, 2012 at 3:49 pm

In this case, I wish the rest of major league general managers and owners took the stand of Sandy Alderson – the dollar amount and years of length is just ridiculous and more than the teams, it’s the fans that will be getting burned as the price of tickets again gets higher and higher as do the salaries and profits.

That bit of philosophy outside, the whole conversation in relation to the Mets is totally irrelevant. Too many holes created that need to be filled and it just can’t be done by buying players as the Marlins have proved and to a much lesser degree, many other teams before that. It’s not like 2011 when we needed just a few extra pieces to make us a contender once again.

But we’re caught in a catch-22 for if we agree with Sandy and/or Sandy agrees with us, we’re no longer in the ball game.

So look for other teams to attempt to improve themselves once more when we talk about visions.
L.J. Phipps September 24, 2012 at 9:32 pm

Mets should look at getting Jackson, a rotation of Dickey, Santana, Niese, Jackson, & Harvey sounds nice. Gee, Wheeler, & McHugh in the wings.

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