B.J. Upton Will Be One Hot Commodity This Offseason, But Probably Out Of Mets Price Range

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• Matt September 16, 2012 at 10:41 am

  You can store BJ Upton in the “No Chance in Hell” file for the Mets.
• Roxio September 16, 2012 at 11:00 am

  It’s not just us going after him that is unlikely. Even more unlikely is that he would want to play for this team Alderson has put together. Why would any great player want to play for the Mets right now? Why would any player want to subject himself to these conditions? The Mets brand is tarnished and synonymous with a big market laughing stock.
• Kramer67 September 16, 2012 at 11:34 am

  Players I NEVER want to see in a Mets uniform: Hanley Ramrirez, the Upton Brothers, Carlos Zambrano, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino.

  Lets see what they want for Mike Cuddyer or Jason Kubel instead.
• 86mets September 16, 2012 at 11:47 am

  Anything over league minimum would be too pricey for $andy Alder$son and the Oakland Mets, ooops, I meant the New York A’s, oh wait, there I go again….the New York Mets of the AAA International League. Oh, wait, the Mets are a Major League team, right? Let’s just say a AAA team cannot afford BJ Upton this winter, how’s that? LOL
• Joey D. September 16, 2012 at 12:09 pm

  Hi Drew,

  I can see this turning into another absurd bidding war but that is the name of the game today and the Mets, just like all other teams, must play it since an Upton indeed might be the missing piece in the puzzle for one or two teams and they will be the ones who will always raise the ante to get that final piece.

  We would need much more than just Upton to help this club so it’s not just a matter of us not having the money to spend on him, we don’t have the money necessary to spend on him and other pieces to help resolve our own puzzle, which includes the re-signing David Wright and R.A. We had less pieces to fill two years ago than we have now.

  When the “vision” of building from within materializes with some of the youngsters we got (not all of them are going to pan out) who will need two or three years in the majors to reach fruition (about 2016) Upton will be 32, probably in line for free agency, and thus by Met standards that would mean trading him instead of re-signing him because he would then be considered as a player starting to age who would result in keeping a hot prospect down on the farm like Omar used to do. And that is not taking into account the monetary aspects of the situation which assumes he would then be taking a walk from us anyway (ala Beltran?).

  We need more than B.J. to help turn things around now. A series of moves could be attempted (don’t ask me which ones) which could create a valid chance for success next season (as we’ve seen with the White Sox and Orioles) but that won’t happen here.

  Signing one big name star would be like when we signed George Foster in 1982 – trying to make a statement about the future to the fans more than being a building block for that future.

  You included a quote by Maddon which I think is important because it deals with aspects of his game that cannot be recognized through statistical analysis which so many put heavy emphasis on:

  “I’ve never seen him cower to a big moment,” Maddon said. “This guy has taken lot of criticism, but he’s never come into my office and cried about it. I’ve seen him play in high-leverage moments, and they bring out the best in him.”

  Or is there a saber stat for that, too?
  • Donal September 16, 2012 at 12:44 pm

    “You included a quote by Maddon which I think is important because it deals with aspects of his game that cannot be recognized through statistical analysis which so many put heavy emphasis on:

    “I’ve never seen him cower to a big moment,” Maddon said. “This guy has taken lot of criticism, but he’s never come into my office and cried about it. I’ve seen him play in high-leverage moments, and they bring out the best in him.”

    Or is there a saber stat for that, too?”

    Leverage index
    • Joey D. September 16, 2012 at 3:05 pm

      Donal,

      Thanks for bringing that to my attention. Read up on it briefly.

      http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/get-to-know-leverage-index/

      If this is what baseball has come to down, it’s no longer a human spectator sport but an intellectual discussion of mathematical theorisms and the ingenuity behind the putting together of a team suffers from a lack of spirit which reflects itself on the field. There is no need for the descriptive narrative anymore – just look at the spreadsheet.
      • Donal September 16, 2012 at 3:18 pm

        Oh stop. It is measuring a guy’s production, same as always. All this does is put to bed some myths.

        these are still players producing the stats and it takes away the mystical fairy tales some people try to pass off as insight.

        this is exactly what you’ve asked for. Be happy.
      • Fonzie13 September 16, 2012 at 4:04 pm

        It’s a lack of talent. Spirit means shit if you have no talent and the Mets have no talent. Did you not hear the part of Bobby O’s interview the other day when he said the Mets lack talent or did you only hear the part when he said the Mets take too many hittable pitches. Lack of spirit? Give me a break.
• Donal September 16, 2012 at 2:02 pm

  I’d gamble on Bossman Junior. I don’t think he’ll get the deal some are claiming. There are some good OFs available, including CFs.
• mike lloyd September 16, 2012 at 3:27 pm

  With what money? Even if they traded DW and RA, they’d use the savings on their contracts for….nothing…nothing
• Bayonne Mets Fan September 16, 2012 at 4:17 pm

  Well maybe if the GM didn’t sit on his ass while the Mets were hot during the first half and let the Braves get cheap acquisitions like Ben Sheets and while other teams were trading bad contracs than maybe the spirit of the rest of the team could have been lifted by some new faces who could have helped at that time. That’s what I think Joey D is referring to.
  • Joey D. September 16, 2012 at 7:19 pm

    Hi Bayonne,

    Yes, that is one of the points I was trying to make. A lack of imagination replaced by cold statistics. Let’s look into it further.

    This same team that has no talent was tied for the wild card lead heading into the all-star break. They were playing with tremendous spirit and confidence. That spirit was knocked out of them – as it was for all of us – in Atlanta and Washington with so many late and extra inning comebacks were undermined by the bullpen that had been hurting us all year and it was apparent nothing had or was going to be done by the front office.

    It was that analytical approach with statistical information that put put together that bullpen , created a hole in center and took away the speed from the top of the order – moves that many of us who do not rely on spreadsheets, charts and graphs and any other form of statistical evaluation understood at the time to be disasters in the making, following the tradition of the prior season’s moves that began in the winter of 2010. Remember how Sandy was quite satisfied with the moves he made that winter, albeit he was concerned about certain injured players?

    http://www.northjersey.com/sports/pro_sports/baseball/mets/114703029_Mets__winter_work_is_done.html

    According to all the stats, Baltimore should be five games below .500 at this point, not 17 over. As noted in Baseball Reference:

    “Pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team’s winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky. It is calculated by

    (Runs Scored)^1.83
    ———————————————————
    (Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83

    The traditional formula uses an exponent of two, but this has proven to be a little more accurate.”

    That’s a difference of 22 victories – based on sabermetric analysis of all CURRENT data (not last year’s). 22 games won based on luck?

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2012.shtml

    This past winter we knew about Francisco performing better in middle relief and melting down as a closer and having problems handling certain types of pressure situations – as evidenced by him having injured two spectators in Oakland by throwing a chair at them in which Sandy himself, in his role with the Commissioner’s office, had to personally handle:

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1881073

    And finally, spirit is not an important thing? Well, remember one reason Sandy Alderson said he was hesitant to make moves right before the all star break:

    “I don’t want to credit too much to the chemistry, but I think that certainly exists and is a factor for us now.”

    Give me a break, Sandy, chemistry doesn’t win games, talent does. Spirit and chemistry are one of the same and quoting that gifted philosopher “Spirit means shit if you have no talent and the Mets have no talent.”.
    • Fonzie13 September 16, 2012 at 10:44 pm

      Yes it’s spirit and chemistry I tell ya. We fell apart because our spirit was taken away when no bullpen help was brought in. We had enough spirit and chemistry to win it all if only we got some bullpen help.

      Boy those Phillies must’ve found that spirit and chemistry when their GM threw in the towel 14 games under 500 and sold off their RF, CF and number 4 starter to go on and play 16 games over 500 after their GM threw in the towel. Where can we acquire such spirit? Where did the Brewers get so much spirit and chemistry after their GM threw in the towel 12 games under 500 and sold off their number 1 starter? How on earth did they go 15 games over 500 after throwing in the towel? Those minor leaguers must’ve brought over spirit and chemistry and turned their fortunes around. Couldn’t have been that they have more talent. Nope not a chance. It’s spirit and chemistry I tell ya.

      Offseason wishlist. 3 outfielders. 2 with spirit one with chemistry or maybe we can get lucky enough and get 2 of the 3 with both spirit and chemistry. A spiritual catcher and a few bullpen arms that pitch with spirit. Easy peasey! Get to it Sandy. No stats just spirit and chemistry.
      • Joey D. September 16, 2012 at 11:37 pm

        Hi Fonzie,

        Please answer two specific areas that I raised.

        1) Why did Sandy bring up the point about not wanting to disrupt “chemistry” when speaking about the affect it could have on the club?

        2) If saber stats gives a more accurate reflection and understanding of an individual’s and a team’s performance – which includes leverage index – why does it not resemble Baltimore’s true record instead of it playing under .500? With all the stats necessary – including the leverage index – why can’t it explain Baltimore being one game out of first or leading the second wild card spot by two?

        As far as the importance of spirit, I think it is quite necessary for it brings out the best in one’s talent and a team overall. When things were going better, someone I know expressed it much better than I could of:

        “Interesting comments from Bobby Ojeda during the post game show, talking about how dreadful the team and it’s clubhouse was in 2009 and 2010 with all the malcontents in the locker room. Bobby O went on to say how Sandy and Terry have done a GREAT job changing the losing culture of the franchise. Although I don’t think too much of Terry’s managerial skills in game, he and Sandy have done an excellent job changing the losing atmosphere that surrounded the team the last few years before they got here. The last 2 years, this team leaves it all out on the field, 100% every game.”

        That was my point about spirit. Lack of it can breed a losing attitude.
        • hotstreak September 17, 2012 at 2:38 am

          “Give me a break, Sandy, chemistry doesn’t win games, talent does” I agree.

          Nice Guys create good Chemistry? Answer NO

          Mean Guys create good chemistry? No

          A blend of both creates good chemistry ? No

          Chemistry is created by winning.

          Character must be created during losing.

          Winning is created by talent.

          Talent comes from scouting for amaturer and international draft and paying at least market or slot price. It comes from signing FA under 30 (except relief pitchers) for projected contribution period taking in consideration the makup (total picture a non-cancer personality who can play in NY). Talent also comes from trades. Both trades and FA signings should not mortgage the future. However the ownership has its responsibility to maintain competiveness through proper resources.

          Winning comes from ownership to provide a necessary budget with flexibility to create, build and maintain a competive team and to fill holes by position when warranted.

          Can’t over look the importance of player development in the farm system.

          One more thing: The worst thing is to let managerial talent which includes the managers and coaching staff in the minor leagues leave the Mets organiztion for a promotion. If a guy should be promoted or lose him tough decisions have to be made. Is it worth losing this guy especially to a division rival. Can this guy be made bench coach for one year then announce he will take over? The current guy can go back to player development which is the foundation of an organization. The new guy coached all the guys coming up in the next two or three years and coming up next year or who are now on the current 25 man roster.
          • Donal September 17, 2012 at 12:15 pm

            You think Tuefel is ready for the manager’s job?
          • Joey D. September 17, 2012 at 12:58 pm

            Hi Hotstreak,

            The point about chemistry or spirit that I allude to does not develop into a winner but becomes an important outgrowth from which that winning sprouts a winning attitude in lieu of a defeatist attitude. It is a self-confidence in one’s team to believe they will comeback and win – not a hope – and certainly not doubt in their ability as a team and waiting for something to happen to blow the game for them.

            Our bullpen cost us a lot more games than what could be expected the first half of the season. It undermined many a comeback or great starting pitching performance, including three crucial heartbreaking losses in Atlanta and Washington right after the all-star break. The team knew even better than the fans and the media that they could not continue the two-out hitting and starting pitching performances that carried them through the first half but at the same time understood if the front office got them some needed help, the necessity of relying so much on the starting pitcher and two out rallies would be more properly balanced and offset by more reliance on the pen and more run scoring since Torres and Bay (before the injury) were busts and that rookies like Kirk would come down to earth.

            No moves were made. No help was on the horizon other than the promise of rookie call ups. The previous year instead of no moves being made, the team was stripped of it’s top hitter and closer despite challenging for the wild card spot.

            That can easily break a team’s spirit. That can easily do away with the winning attitude and the confidence that breeds. Players are not robots. And as Keith has said, the game is not played by computers.
            • TRS86 September 17, 2012 at 1:03 pm

              Couldn’t that chemistry have also taken a hit by players thinking about being traded which lead to poor play in July and spiraled into today? How the heck might one know?
              • Joey D. September 17, 2012 at 3:20 pm

                Hi TR,

                I don’t think those who were contributing had anything to worry about – not with the annual fire sales held at that time with players that could be bought with money and mid level prospects. I think Torres, Ramirez, etc. would have more to be concerned about.

                But getting back to spirit and chemistry/

                Confidence is a key element and it shows in the body language as Keith, Ron and Bobby O., – former players – pick up easily and point it out to us fans. Back in 1968, for example, the Mets won only 73 games, only seven more than their previous team high. They finished a half game out of last place. At one point, Gil Hodges young kids had a record of 41-44 more than half way through the schedule – just three games below .500, which had us fans going dizzy. After that, they finished at 32-45 (playing 13 games under .500). Yet, they did not let that second half discourage them and have them fall back into a losing attitude. As fans, we saw it in every game. Ron Swoboda talked about it in a between game interview after the Mets dropped the first one. He said “we lost the first one but we know we’re going to win the second”.

                Despite it’s brilliant young pitching staff, this was a losing team with bad hitting even by “year of the pitcher” standards. Yet Gil Hodges instilled in it a winning attitude. Tom Seaver always cites that. The kids learned to be men.

                Most important, it is an example that disproves the notion that only winning brews chemistry spirit and confidence and I think that is lost today with so many fans with their focus on sabermetrics and money ball. The 1968 Mets were a half game out of last place at season’s end.

                That’s why I brought 1968 up because it relates to 2011. Last year the team was building something, a confidence, a winning attitude and a team chemistry. We saw it the way they played and the way they approached the game. We lost something more than Beltran and KRod last season. It’s something that those whose primary reliance is on analytical analysis will never understand the damage they can cause in building a winner.

                Perhaps it is reflective of the lack of spirit that has been replaced with so much cynicism in today’s society. Those who don’t understand this never will.
                • Fonzie13 September 20, 2012 at 4:33 am

                  It still comes down to talent. The Phillies traded their starting RFer, Their staring CFer and their number 4 starter when they were 14 games under 500. What did they do? Did they lose their spirit because the front office threw in the towel? No! They went on to win 20 of their next 24 games after the front office threw in the towel. Know why? They have the talent to do so. We don’t. The Brewers 12 games under 500 threw in the towel by trading their number 1 starter, Did they lose their spirit because the front office pulled the rug out from under them? No! They went fron 12 games inder to 3 games over and back in the race and afer losing their slugger Prince Fielder to free agency. They have more talent. Spirit and chemistry had nothing to do with the Mets plight. It was a lack of talent. They lack talent. And I don’t think the pathagorean record was ever thought of as a guarentee. It’s just a projection based on runs scored and runs allowed and is usually pretty close. In Baltimores case, They have the best record in MLB in 1 run games and have won 15 straight extra inning games. Statistical analysis had nothing to do with the Mets collapse. They collapsed after the allstar break in 2010 too and there was a different GM here at that time. Same problem. lack of talent.
        • stick September 17, 2012 at 7:30 am

          Pythagorean winning percentage concept is not some kind of guarantee. But as with any stat like that, there will always be outliers, and you need a statistically large enough sample for it to be meaningful.

          actually, it must be a good predictor, since it is so notable that a team is violating it! But over a lot of teams/season, it is a pretty good indicator of where a team will finish.

          In Baltimore’s case, it likely indicates that they have won a ton of close games, and lost some major blow outs. Good for them, but not something really sustainable (winning when you consistently give up more runs than you score)
          • TRS86 September 17, 2012 at 1:04 pm

            And if you look at their record, similar to the Mets early in the season, they have won almost every close game. The only difference is they were able to sustain that improbability.
• Even Flow September 16, 2012 at 7:07 pm

  Who cares? He’ll go to the Nationals anyway. I want no part of BJ Upton as a Met, money or no money.
• Matt September 16, 2012 at 8:04 pm

  He’s going to be overpriced regardless of where he ends up. He’d be a nice finishing touch on an already good team. He doesn’t match up well with the Mets.