28
2012
Waiver Blockbuster: Our Divide In One Trade
An article by 
By now, everybody is aware of one of the biggest waiver trades in recent memory.
The Red Sox sent Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto and $11 milliion in cash to the LA Dodgers in exchange for James Loney, pitcher Allen Webster, infielder Ivan DeJesus Jr. and two players to be named. The two players to be named later will be Zach Lee, and Rubby De La Rosa – both did not clear waivers.
In fact, I can’t think of another waiver trade that was bigger. Sure, deals like Cone, Bagwell, and Smoltz had a great long term impact. But I can’t think of another one that involved so many players, and had such a huge immediate impact on both teams.
For me, this deal was incredibly intriguing on so many different levels. The most interesting aspect for this was how it involved both sides of today’s Mets fan. For starters, it proved that a big market team can rebuild – so long as they are up front with their fans and have their fans trust.
Many Mets fans would appreciate how the Red Sox went about this. Let’s be honest here for a second, no matter what you think of the deal – it was gutsy. They wanted a complete new direction, and in order to do that they had to get rid of 2 bad contracts.
To get rid of them, they needed to deal a superstar. I am sure they didn’t WANT to lose Gonzalez, but he was the sacrificial lamb here.
In this deal, the Red Sox wiped the slate clean. They took an underachieving roster, and didn’t allow them to continue to bring the franchise down year after year. They saw a problem, and instead of just spending more to fix it – they were bold and found a more creative way out.
For the Dodgers, here is a team that was in financial distress at the same time as the Mets. The difference is they got the new owners that many Mets fans desperately wish for.
Now, they are handcuffed by nothing except their own decision making. This is the type of deal to me that the Red Sox will never regret. It is a deal that Los Angeles could one day regret – if they do not win a championship very soon.
The Dodgers are trying to re-energize their fan base, and they have found that spending money is the best way to do that. The Red Sox are actually trying to do the exact same thing, and they have decided the way to do that is to wipe the slate clean and spend more wisely.
The best way to compare it in my eyes would be if the Mets traded Santana, Bay, and probably Wright and Murphy. I pick those players because to me Santana matches the likes of Beckett the most – both with his large contract and his ability to pitch in a big game. Wright would be the most comparable to Adrian Gonzalez (not saying they are equals). Further, Bay and Crawford would be comparable, but Crawford still have more value over Bay. While Punto is not as good of a hitter as Murphy, Bay’s performance would probably bring the value down forcing a player like Murphy to be dealt. This is a deal I never thought would be possible, until last week.
Even with that deal, I don’t think the Mets would get as much as the Red Sox did. But, it could have still gotten them some sort of return. Maybe?
Other deals wouldn’t relieve the financial stress of poor contracts, which would be the ultimate goal if you packaged Wright with others in my view.
I’m not saying I want Wright traded – I’m just saying this deal shows you how you can get value for him while also getting rid of some bad deals.
This deal sums up the difference between many Mets fans today.
I think the Red Sox made a tremendous move here. Whether the prospects progress or not is almost less important than the financial impact here. In 2012, the Red Sox have $175million in contracts on the books.
They have no financial problems, so they can find players to spend $ on if they’d like. This deal just gives them the ability to transform the team.
Heading into 2013, they have roughly $45 million guaranteed. That is a franchise changer right there.
By comparison, the Dodgers have $193 million in guaranteed contracts for 2013. Wow.
This past week, we saw two teams go in complete opposite directions through 1 trade. That single trade to me, replicates the divide many Mets fans have.
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 19 | .548 | 0.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 23 | .465 | 4.0 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 6.5 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
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Aren’t the red sox really just retooling, not rebuilding? They still have (for now!) other higher priced, veteran guys (Pedroia, ellisbury, some pitchers, and no, I did not dig up their roster to check!). So I would certainly not put them in the class of the vintage Pirate or KC rebuilding teams!
what they did really is lop off aging, under-performing players from the roster. Basically what will happen next year when bay and Santana have their contracts run out. So not sure that counts as rebuilding really. Just what teams are always trying to do, even the good ones.
so this all comes down to a really unique circumstance of being willing to trade a star in his prime. whether to just free up the $$ to spend on other guys, or because of the whole textgate nonsense, we don’t know for sure.
but what is the biggest difference (compared to the mets) is the contract length. Bay and Johan were ST guys of course, making them more attractive (unless they actually expect to get playoff chase production out of beckett and Crawford this year). But DW is a rental too. And from the reports, this deal was all about getting A Gon to build around for the future, and that is something that was not a guarantee with Wright (even if they wanted him, it was the players choice).
anyway, like others have said, if they did use Wright as the bait to get rid of bay, all that would do is save the team money next year. Nice for the owners of course (they seem to like that!), but it would be better to use your best trade chip to get good young talent back if possible.
Bay is gone before next season anyway, and his money hit at the end of the year.
YUUUUUP!
I mentioned this on the other thread though. The Mets are no longer locked in to poor long-term contracts that they need to discard at the cost of a superstar. They have already rode the storm out and only have one year remaining of all the bad long-term contracts that were Perez, Castillo, Bay and Johan (I still would have done the Johan contract).
Trading Wright or Dickey (who are only under contract one more year, Wright 0 if he is traded now) to rid themselves of one year of poor contracts would be foolish. The only reason the Redsox did it was they were locked into those deals for the long-term. If the Mets wanted to go the route of the Redsox, then their best option would not be to try and trade those bad contracts but to just eat them and trade away Wright and Dickey in the off-season in separate deals. Why lose talent in order to eat one year of bad contracts?
Also to be considered, however, is that Wright and Dickey are only locked in for one year with market value or below contracts for the Mets. Trading them would be counter productive unless you can obtain someone who can compete at least by 2014.
Keepers:
Pitching: Harvey, Dickey, Wheeler, Niese, Parnell, Mejia, Fulmer, Gee*
Starters: Wright, Davis, Tejada
Bench: Baxter, Turner, Cedeno
*Gee’s trade value compromised by health issue
____________________________________
Trade Chips: Murphy, Valdespin, Duda, McHugh, Gorski,
Maybe if anything, it gives our management an idea on how we can rid ourselves of Bay’s contract.
In reality they already determined how they would rid themselves of Bay’s contract. Not allowing him to reach his plate appearances necessary for his option to kick in and ride the storm out unless someone takes on some of the money. The time to do a Bay trade would have been after the first year, not heading into the last.
Agree on all your points.
Keep Wright and Dickey and hear offers on Santana. Trade wisely for a CF and perhaps an SP. I don’t know what to do with the BP. Torres has got to go and let Bay walk and eat it. Our corner outfielders are a mish mosh of bench players with the auditioners proving that MLB pitching can catch up to you. Captain Kirk is shelved for this season and never really adjusted after he was adjusted to, Duda is a first baseman, Baxter is a fourth outfielder and a good one, Hairston throws like my sister and can’t hit righties. Valdespin may be an option and has the athleticism to play all three positions but I feel they want him @ 2B in the event we trade Murphy. We need a real catcher back there. It will be interesting what the NY Mets do and how they will expect the fan base to react to continued mediocrity. The only players I see locked in and acceptable for 2013 are: Wright, Davis, Tejada, Dickey, Harvey, Niese, Gee, the rest are back ups or trade bait. If there isn’t a block buster over the off season I hear the Shea gods roaring.
they will do what they can, with the budget allotted, within whatever build for the future (whenever that might be) plan they have. Hopefully they win enough to keep fans coming, but it will be up to the people to decide if they want to come out, and the team will live with it temporarily, which is at least 2013. There really needs to be a new, exciting vibe by 2014 though (from younger guys getting established and some new talent brought in with the money off the books).
Fans are fickle if nothing else. And it does not take that much to get them back hooked.
Well I disagree (what a shock right?)
This had little to do with a new direction although it does manage to allow them to do that…
It was about getting rid of the Malcontents and while they may have wanted AGon’s stats on thier boxscores he was the guy who gave the Mutineers his phone to send a text!
Yes they purged salary and they gave away a performer while doing so!
But what was key to them was to get rid of anyone who wasn’t happy being there!
And they showed the rest of the team WHO IS BOSS of that franchise and that being a performer and making tons of money is no obstacle or protection towards being sent packing!
A classic case of telling players, Be careful what you wish for…You might get it!
Are you Unhappy? See ya! I don’t care how much you make or how good you hit! I can get someone else to do what you do forhalf the price and none of the complaints!
THATS what this deal was all about!
Putting that lockeroom in it’s place and proper perspective!
Interesting comparison Jessep to the Mets equivalent in players. The difference to me is that the Dodgers have the prize they wanted in Gonzo locked up through 2018 where Wright would be locked up only till the end of this season. If say one replaced Wright with Dickey one would then have to deal with could Dickey actually even clear waivers? An idea I find difficult to believe. And Dickey if he say cleared waivers would only be under control through next season.
In my opinion if the Mets could find someone to take on Bay’s contract within reason and by reason I mean where they don’t say here please take Bay and we will throw in Harvey and Familia it would of been done already. That they moved Krod and his $17M vesting option last season a move many expected to happen is an example of a team willing to move salary if they could.
Bay unlike KRod has next to nothing in value though. You already heard of the said rumor that if it is to believed the Mets and Marlins were in talks of moving Bay in a deal that would brought back Bell. A deal mind you that the Marlins would be foolish to have made but again it was just a reported rumor.
The Dodgers Red Sox trade was a historic trade. One that for the Red Sox saw them willing to lose a valuable player in Gonzo to rid themselves of Becket and Crawford. Some suggest Gonzo was moved due to the text gate incident regarding the manager. If true they better hope Valentine was worth it and they did not cut off their nose to spite their face or in this case trade away their 1st baseman to spite their team.
For the Dodgers if you believe some of the reports they are playing it fast and loose on the idea that they will be able to more than cover their expenses with the new tv deal. Time will tell if these moves prove fruitful. If not it’s possible the Dodgers may be looking to do next year what the Red Sox did this year.
I disagree, Jessep. I disagree with both you and Joe D on how you compared what the Red Sox did to what the Mets could have or should have done. The Red Sox had two things the Mets don’t: two contracts worth roughly $250 million, and desirable players for salary dumps. I won’t get into the Johan-Beckett comparison even though they’re dissimilar in that Beckett’s struggling, not unhealthy. Johan hasn’t ever had a healthy season with the Mets in five years.
Bay’s situation is so unlike Crawford’s you can’t compare them at all, no matter how you spin it. Bay has one more year left after this season, not five, and his play isn’t even minor league caliber. His Mets career, which consists of 1,088 plate appearances, (or two full-ish seasons), he’s a .235 hitter with 28 home runs and 114 RBI. As a “power” hitter, his SLG% is .368.
Crawford, on the other hand, played 161 games and had 664 PAs with the Red Sox, was a .260, 14, 75 hitter. In just one full season. Teams can want that production, especially since Crawford will presumably recover from his injury, and he’s played well when healthy. Bay’s healthy. He’s just not a good baseball player. That doesn’t even account for defense and speed, which is so heavily slanted in Crawford’s favor, it’s not worth bringing up.
The Sandy haters who use what Boston did to get on Alderson because he “couldn’t” or “wouldn’t” do what Boston did is overlooking the most important part of what Boston had: players they want to trade that other teams wanted to trade for. Nobody wants to give up two top pitching prospects for Johan, and nobody wants Bay at all. Those two have a combined three years left on their deals and Gonzalez and Crawford have what? Twelve? And Gonzalez is a stud. And Crawford still shows that he might be if he was healthy.
No what the HATERS keep saying to the SLURPERS (If slurper is offensive why isn’t haters just as offensive?)
We are not down on Sandy for not doing what Boston did hell we been on him far longer than that!
We are on him for not doing ANYTHING! Just sitting around waiting for a winning team to fall in his lap or off the Buffalo shuttle!
Who said “slurpers” was offensive? I think it’s pretty damn funny. It’s been played out for a month now, but at the time I told Alex I thought it was great.
You’re wrong about Alderson. He is doing something. You’re an engineer, right? Let me ask you, when you build something, any kind of building or structure at all, what do you build first? The roof or the foundation? The top floor, or the ground floor?
I’m not fond of the word, but, hey words are cheap right
I’m in engineering too by the way, and NOTHING ever gets build on the first go around either, never.
You don’t just say “I’m going to build this……..” poof it’s done.
I apologize as you were NOT one to call it offensive I remember your comment.
As for the foundational fix, What has he done to fix the foundation?
Looks to me like he is still tearing down structure and has done little to build up other than Wheeler.
He sure passed on the foundational materials he will ned in this recent draft by not signing them.
And other than Beltran he has not sold off any of the pieces he got rid of for minimum salvage!
He’s just ripping pieces down, Throwing patches on the walls of what sits above the foundation and done little to shore up the base once all the structure is removed!
He’s renovating not rebuilding!
And he has yet to get rid of the problems just the stuff that works he thinks he can’t afford!
And don’t forget about the 2011 draft with Nimmo, Fulmer, Mazzoni, Leathersich and a few others. The fact that the Mets graduated five of their top 10 prospects from recent rankings and got rid of another (F-Mart) and still (according to Sickles and several others) increased their farm system ranking means that Sandy added some very high upside players to the foundation.
The major league team comes last. It’s a hard concept to grasp when the owners have bought FAs like sailors on leave recently and continues to just put band-aids on the problem, but that’s the reality of the situation now. You can blame the GM for it, but you’re just looking for a scapegoat.
Are you suggesting teams who are not rebuilding dont use and sign thier draft picks as a normal part of running a team?
How can you count what every team does (except us in 2012 where we don’t sign half of them) a step towards rebuilding?
I’m not going to give him credit for making a pick and then signing them. But granted I will give him more credit for 2011 when compared to what he did in 2012 where he picked them and then didn’t sign half of them I suppose.
But no I don’t give him credit for doing something that every team does towards rebuilding!
When those picks pan out and fill the positions the rebuild requires THEN I will give him some credit for those picks!
Increasing farm system ranking is a piss poor barometer!
We got Wheeler and jumped half the teams that were ahead of us thats how slim the margin between teams is!
None of his other activities has any long term impact. Only FF is signed past this year!
(some say Thank god for that!)
Lets agree bay has a negative trade value even if mets assumed 100% of his salary.
Johan has a gazillion dollars owed him and one year left on his deal. Also negative trade value.
Lets cut bay and be done with him.
Lets keep santana as a sunk cost and see what he can do in 2013.
No comparison to the red sox, none at all.
Whoever thinks the mets “talent” is equitative to the red sox talent is smoking some serious crack and I want some of it. I don’t know why they insist on comparing the red sox trade to a trade the differs would accept. Whoever said that bay=Crawford is taking some mushrooms. And santana equal to Beckett….I want some of that LSD.
Dodgers*