The Armchair GM: Is Justin Upton Worth A Look?

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• MetsJets13 August 13, 2012 at 6:08 pm

  If and only if we can get hime without losing Wheeler or Harvey, I’m on him like white on rice. What is our outfield next season anyway? Do we even have one certainty to rely upon? I dont see Spin as a sure thing sorry.
• Mitch Petanick August 13, 2012 at 7:19 pm

  whatever it takes to get this kid…he’s only 24 and already a 2x all-star and a silver slugger recipient
  • Metsie August 13, 2012 at 10:14 pm

    I’ll repeat what I said the last time this subject came up.

    There is a tale of Two Uptons here that a simple glance at the splits will make quite clear.
    He has spent his entire career in Arizona so I will use his Career splits here…

    Home – .302BA .387OBP .539SLG .926OPS 61 HRs
    Away – .252BA .328OBP .414SLG .742OPS 39 HRs

    Which one do you think you will see of those two if you get him?

    I think the sentiments regarding him has a lot to do with what he has done just against us.

    At CitiField in only 13 games he did hit .283BA .339OBP .396SLG .735OPS 1 HR

    It’s easy to explain the disparity if you look at the park factors involved.

    The guy is a great player for Arizona…
    But if he leaves there he could be just the next Jason Bay!
    • Mike Thomson August 13, 2012 at 10:51 pm

      Upton doesn’t make the same money as Bay, so it wouldn’t be as bad. He does hit worse away from Chase, so we get him help and work on his swing. If it was last year, this deal would be a no-brainer.
      • Metsie August 13, 2012 at 10:54 pm

        Mike your chart takes distance into account but not the same weather conditions that would exist here!

        Same thing has been said about Las Vegas where balls seem to fly pout of that stadium and Vegas is very much like Arizona!

        So the distance of what he hit there falls far short in the humid dense climate of a coastal city like NY.

        And his splits away seem to prove that!
    • BadBadLeroyBrown August 14, 2012 at 11:55 am

      Metsie,

      Those stats are based on 2 years

      His rookies season in 2008 which he was only 20 yrs old in the majors
      Home – .321BA .407OBP .632SLG 1.039OPS 12 HRs
      Away – .169BA .291OBP .271SLG .562OPS 3 HRs

      And in 2011 where coincidently he was 4th runner up for the NL MVP award
      Home – .333BA .411OBP .622SLG 1.033OPS 20 HRs
      Away – .246BA .328OBP .439SLG .767OPS 11 HRs

      Other than those two seasons his stat line has been roughly even when it comes to his home and away splits. I’ll take that any day from one of the best young talents in the league. And we must remember we are talking about the track sheet of a kid who is only 24 yrs old!!!

      Our best OF option is Lucas Duda and he just got a sniff of the league at age 25, at age 24 Upton is already an established talent with big upside.

      Mets biggest problem over the years when bringing in players through free agency or trades was they got these players when they were on the downside of their careers. If Upton is available and youre the mets you should jump at that deal especially since you have NO options on the major league club nor do you have any OF prospects on the way. No Brainer!
      • Metsie August 14, 2012 at 12:28 pm

        Well Leroy in 2010 he was roughly even but was down on the whole, look at how the HR numbers drop in seasons where he seems even in BA…
        in 2011 he was pretty much what I said

        2009
        H – .305 BA 14 Hrs
        A – .296 BA 12 Hrs

        2010
        H – .282 BA 8HRs
        A – .264 BA 9 HRs

        2011
        H – .333 BA 20 HRs
        A – .246 BA 11 HRs

        2012
        H – .279 BA 5 HRs
        A – .268 BA 4 HRs
        Now granted 2012 is a little more than half done but he is going to have a hard time getting to even 15 HRs at home at his current pace.

        I see the pattern here that says when he hits the same home and away he stops hitting all those Home Runs everyone seems to think he is capable of hitting. And mostly because he stops hitting them everywhere home AND away!

        2009 and 2010 seemed to be his only case of consitency and then it seems like every other year he goes from equal BA low HRs to Unequal BA and Way more HRs at home than away!

        It really proves what I’m saying his high BA at home is all about all those HRs he hits and when he doesn’t hit them his BA drops to what it is everywhere else!
        • Metsie August 14, 2012 at 12:32 pm

          And Leroy let me e clear I really have no issue with wanting to have him on this team he most certainly would improve what we have out there now by a long mile!

          The issue for me is what it’s going to take to get him is probably more than we will get back from him once he plays for us.

          Even at his worst he is a damn site better to have than any other OFer we have played this year or will play next year!

          Even if all we got was 20-26 HRs and an average around .260 it would be a major improvement to the lineup.

          But is that worth losing a frontline starter in Wheeler or Harvey to get?

          Thats my real issue here…
          If it was a deal for Flores Familia Mejia and Duda I would be happy to do it.
          But everyuone insists it’s going to take a Harvey or Wheeler and thats too much for what we might get in return.
          • BadBadLeroyBrown August 14, 2012 at 12:47 pm

            Metsie,

            Oh ok, I see I was just trying to break down the splits since it was a major contention of yours. I wouldnt trade Harvey or Wheeler neither because i believe they will pan out and I cant remember when was the last time our farm produced 2 high potential power arms.

            And the best way to build a pitching rotation in my opinion is through the farm not signing them for what they are being paid now on the open market.

            We’ve done well so far with Niese(a solid 3) and Gee(a solid 4,5) and i like Harvey’s attitude always takes the blame no matter how well he pitches leadership quality right there…Holding yourself accountable for the teams success or failure

            But I dont think AZ would be too interested in harvey, wheeler theyre more interested in infield prospects they need/want 3B,SS prospects but who knows
            • Metsie August 14, 2012 at 1:23 pm

              Thats pretty much what I’m thinking here…
              Pitching is hard to buy because it is so fragile in the long run. It pays to buy it on occassion especially when you are short on top arms in the Minors to rely on or you already have a lot of young arms in the rotation and you need some Veteran leadership to show them the way and the nuances of being a great in the MLB.

              And for that reason we are likely to let Santana play out his contract and hope by then Niese has risen to ACE status to fill that role.

              We lost our playoff race this year due to starting pitching so whatever we feel about the regular starters the truth is if the pitching had held we wouldn’t be so worried about the rest of the team at this point.

              Sure they could be better but the might also not need to be better if the Pitching was better as well. (not even talking about the Bullpen at this point!)

              Could better hitting lead to more wins for the pitching we have? Sure if that same Bullpen we all know sucks could hold games for us qand our starters.

              And the reason we are here talking about Upton is really all about nthe fact it is easier to improve on a guy like Bay, Torres and Duda than it is to improve on guys like Santana, Dickey, Niese and Gee. (may not be so hard to improve on Gee and Young mind you but Pitching IS hard to come by as we both agree!)

              SO this Upton talk is all about the easier path but the price tag for him makes the original situation that put us here worse not better. making for little gain, high risk and not in all that much better a position unless some better Pitchign falls from the sky at a price this FO is willing to spend which is not going to happen even on a cold day in hell when the moon is blue!

              If we were talking about Pujols type who consistently gets you 40 Hrs a year you might do it.
              But I don’t know Upton can ever be that especially not in this stadium and truth be told I doubt even Pujols is a 40 HR guy if he comes here!

              We need to build the rotation, thats the key to NL East! Win the NL East and your good enough to win any other division in the NL! That means your good enough to get the WIldcard where pitching again is the thing that wins you the championship!

              I’ll give away 4 or 5 even 6 players, to get a guy like Upton or any RH Power hitting OFer provided those players are not guys who can adequatly fill out our starting rotation.

              Which is why Familia is a trade chip option for me as he seems to be incapable of breaking into our rotation where he might break into someone else’s such as Colorado or even Arizona.
              Arizona would like Pitching for any trade. But even our second tier Pitchers such as Familia could be an upgrade to them.

              I’ll give them Quantity and talent in the vein of Flores, Duda and Familia…
              But not a Wheeler or Harvey we need them a lot more than we need upton IMO.

              Thats not a knock on Upton but just a kudos to harvey and Wheeler considering what it was that cost us this year’s playoff chance!
• Willis August 13, 2012 at 7:40 pm

  Upton is Harvey + Flores + Duda + a low minor arm like Tapia. And that feels light to me.

  If the Mets are run properly (which is open for debate) they spend money to get protection for Wright, not prospects like Harvey and Tapia. If the Mets are going to return to prominence any time soon it will be on the shoulders of Harvey, Wheeler, Fulmer, Tapia and the rest of the premium arms they have growing on the farm. They don’t have enough ‘extra’ arms in the minors to trade two of them for one outfielder, as good as he might be.
• Metsie August 13, 2012 at 10:18 pm

  I still say you will give away more than you will get back if you trade for this guy.

  He will turn into a 15-20 HR guy at best and his BA will probably drop as well.
  Because all those homers he is getting at Home will turn into fly ball outs in CitiField.
  • Mike Thomson August 13, 2012 at 10:47 pm

    I put a link up in the article proving his homers are still homers at Citi. 39/40 are homers starting from last season to today.

    He’s a young stud who’s still getting better. Duda and Flores and more for Upton, sign me up. The rumors at the deadline didn’t involve Harvey/Wheeler, so I wouldn’t think they’d suddenly be mandatories.
    • Metsie August 13, 2012 at 10:58 pm

      Mike my response to this is actually posted above.

      The Charts show distance but there is something about the conditions in Arizona that greatly enhances the distances of balls hit.

      Just as more HRs are hit in the warmer drier summer months hitting HRs is a place that is always warm and always dry adds distance to hit balls that won’t be the same in a different climate condition…

      Yes he gets less money than Bay and all the rest of what you said above is true but that still doesn’t mean your going to get equal back if we are talking about giving away a Wheeler or Harvey for him.

      Sure we have a Pitcher’s park but that really only works if you have a pitcher and when you don’t then our park might as well be a Hitter’s park as someone like Santana and Young have showed us recently.
    • Willis August 13, 2012 at 11:16 pm

      Dude, your killing your credibility by ‘citing’ rumors of a trade that wasn’t discussed – let alone consummated. No kidding you’d do Duda and Flores “plus” for Upton. How does this help Arizona (neither guy plays a position)? Who would the ‘plus’ be in your view that would make this a palatable deal for Arizona? If its not Harvey then your dreaming.
      • Mike Thomson August 14, 2012 at 12:56 am

        Even if Harvey wasn’t mentioned in a potential deal, you can make a case to include him. So with the names that were thrown around, you’d make the deal for Upton. Most rumors aren’t true, but that doesn’t make them worthless.

        Upton is a proven commodity, so if costs more to land him then you go the extra mile to try and bring in an impact player.
        • desertcat43 August 14, 2012 at 5:44 am

          Mike…..We don’t need Harvey. Here’s why his name never came up in the “rumors.”….. We currently have two rookies in our starting rotation (Miley & Corbin) and we have a couple more at Triple-A Reno who we can plug in as early as next season, if not sooner. (Bauer & Skaggs)

          We’re gonna be dumping Stephen Drew at season’s end, so we’ll definitely be in the market for a big-time SS. Along with moving Upton out of the valley, it won’t be long before CF Chris Young gets the boot also. That means we’re gonna be in the market for at least one more outfielder soon. Dbacks are high on OF David Pollack at Reno. Our current 4th OF, Gerardo Parra, hit .292 last year and won a Gold Glove.

          Positions that are locked in seem to be Kubel in LF, Parra could replace Young in CF, Chris Johnson has started great with the bat but is a little shaky on defense at 3B since he came over from Houston on trade deadline day, Hill at 2B, Goldschmidt at 1B and Montero at catcher.

          Yep, we’re looking for a few key pieces but Harvey ain’t one of them.
          • Mike Thomson August 14, 2012 at 10:05 am

            Yeah this matches up with what I heard and just looking at the DBacks roster, they’re already young in the rotation without Bauer/Skaggs. I must say, if they do deal Upton for the right pieces the DBacks could have something special.
  • desertcat43 August 14, 2012 at 6:03 am

    Although Upton hit 31-HR last yr and helped the Dbacks run down the Giants for the Western Division title, right now, he’s sitting on a grand total of NINE homers. How many would he hit for the Mets? I don’t have a clue. What I do know is that his defense is shaky, at best, and while he’s still in the “kid” category, age wise, he’s definitely a “head case.”

    He’ll go along for awhile like the young stud the Dbacks thought he was when they signed him. But for all the times he’s “that” Justin Upton, there are just as many times when he flips a switch and becomes the hot-headed, bat-slinging, helmet-throwing vulgar-mouthed punk who, several times this season, drew a chorus of boos from the home fans.

    Speaking for myself, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he became a true super-star once the Dbacks move him, if that’s what they decide to do. But that will only happen if his new team has an army of shrinks who can get him staightened out. Apparenty, any such attempts by the Dbacks organization has failed miserably.
    • srt August 14, 2012 at 9:25 am

      Oh boy….a young head case…..just what the Mets need.

      He sounds a bit like Hanley Ramirez. Loads of talent but not always living up to it.
      I’ll be curious if Hanley’s move to LA makes a difference for him.
    • Metsie August 14, 2012 at 10:48 am

      DC – You seem to be a Ari fan so I want to ask you what the impression is of the Ari fans on Upton when he is not hitting at home?

      Cause I see a huge disparity in his numbers home vs away.
      • desertcat43 August 14, 2012 at 2:54 pm

        Metsie…..Recently, he’s started to zone in a little better at the plate and has ripped a few extra base hits, but still lacking in the HR & RBI departments. The fans frustration (mine included) comes as a result of WHEN he’s not hitting, like with men in scoring position and when the game’s on the line. We all know what he’s capable of and what he’s done at times in the past. His inconsistency is driving us all nuts out here.
        • Metsie August 14, 2012 at 3:07 pm

          Thanks Dc – Sounds to me like more of an issue with focus and not so much ability.
          I was just wondering if they had noticed the power differences bet home and away in years where his HR power isn’t an issue.
          • desertcat43 August 14, 2012 at 6:33 pm

            When all is said and done, it seems to me and Yogi that Upton’s game is 90% mental and the other half is physical. You hit it right on the head….lack of focus seems to be the main culprit keeping this kid from reaching his full potential.

            He hit 31 HR last year and that was great. But, even when he’s not dialing up long distance, like this season (9-HR), to see him stretch a single into a double or a double into a triple is spectacular and has the fans up and roaring. Again though, we’ve rarely seen those sights this season.

            Focus, concentration, tunnel-vision, call it what you will. Just like the Dust Storms that come and go here in the desert, so it is with Justin Upton.
    • BadBadLeroyBrown August 14, 2012 at 12:07 pm

      ” there are just as many times when he flips a switch and becomes the hot-headed, bat-slinging, helmet-throwing vulgar-mouthed punk who, several times this season, drew a chorus of boos from the home fans.”

      You just described almost every player in the MLB what player hasnt throw there helmet and bat down out of frustration???

      And when you say BOO’s from the fans are you talking about the racial slurs Upton and Chris Young receive nightly from the Arizona fan base??

      http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/20120706chris-young-justin-upton-say-racial-slurs-from-spectators-arent-surprise.html

      Sounds more like you should be calling the Arizona fanbase punks instead of Upton.
      • desertcat43 August 14, 2012 at 1:47 pm

        BBLB…..I don’t do the race thing. Never have, never will. If you, or anyone else, thinks that thousands of fans booing Upton at home is overt racism, so be it. What I’ve seen is the “fanbase”, as you put it, just venting their frustration with him for his lack of productivity, and his typical off-the-rail reaction to his failure.

        If you ask Upton, he’s never taken a “true” called 3rd strike in his career. It’s always the ump’s fault. And, if he’s called out on strikes early in the game, he’ll wear that rage against the man in blue all game long. Defensively, he goes through stages of jogging after fly balls that require more of his speed in order to make routine plays. He’ll cut off a ball down the line or in the gap and then hold the ball, daring the runner to take an extra base on him, and THEY DO. He’s dropped more “cans of corn” than I care to mention. And anything hit hard over his head in RF is a triple waiting to happen.

        After consecutive games this year when the boos reached their peak, his post-game reaction was, “I don’t care what the fans think of me.” That comment drew the public ire of the Dbacks owner & and the GM, who both let it be known that Upton was, indeed, on the trade market.

        Shame ot it all is, the kid can be everything one would associate with the term “superstar.” It’s really up to him.
• kunym16 August 14, 2012 at 1:09 am

  Even though he hasnt had the numbers his younger brother has had, I think the better player to take is BJ Upton. Yeah he’s older and is a guy who never quite reached his potential, but I think having a good defensive, right handed hitting, CF with some pop is a good thing for this team to have. He also helps us add some much needed speed to this rather small ball oriented club and he is also gonna be a lot cheaper to acquire
  • Mike Thomson August 14, 2012 at 1:30 am

    I was going to cover this in a future post, I totally agree with bringing in B.J. He seems like a good fit for NY. He could still put it together, he’s fast and a terrific defender, and he could be fun to watch.
    • Willis August 14, 2012 at 9:52 am

      Yeah! Maybe we can get him for Flores, Duda and some extra pieces!!

      Sorry for the sarcasm; I couldn’t help myself.
  • srt August 14, 2012 at 9:27 am

    Agree.
• Lifelongmetsfan August 14, 2012 at 5:12 am

  Upton is a great choice but we’re not ready for him, by his next contract in what 5 years maybe?
  Hopefully by the time Upton’s next contract is finished and he is a free agent the Wilpons will have fixed their finances.
  So when Upton is 31 ish? We will be in a position to sign him. No way the Mets trade for Upton now with so little time remaining on his contract. You expect Alderson and ownership to put them self in a position that can so easily be questioned?
  Lets just say for arguments sake Alderson trades Wheeler and Henry Mejda for Upton now. We will not be in a position financially to sign big time contracts until the Wilpons rehabilitate their finances that is realistically going to take another 5-7 years. Upton’s present contract runs out soon. no way the Wilpons will ever resign Upton in the next 5-7 yrs. So we give up our best prospects for what? Getting Upton is not going to suddenly make us a contender.
  Listen, I thin people need to relaize just how bad this Met team is.
  We have no catcher.
  No bullpen
  Beside a 37 yr old pitcher and a rookie who is our starting pitching?
  No center fielder
  No right-fielder
  Our 2nd baseman is not a 2nd baseman
  Our starting shortstop is playing WAY over his head.. unproven

  This is not a good team.. trading for Upton does not make a a contender.
  • desertcat43 August 14, 2012 at 5:48 am

    Justin Upton is playing under a back-loaded contract that runs for another 3-yrs and will pay him just over 14-M in both 2014 & 2015.
    • Lifelongmetsfan August 14, 2012 at 9:46 am

      Good morning. Exactly desertcat.
  • Mike Thomson August 14, 2012 at 10:12 am

    An Upton deal doesn’t make the Mets a contender overnight. But it starts to give the Mets a foundation. It’ll be a more appealing place to sign as a free agent, they can see what they got with an under 30 multiple All Star, and it would be a signature move by the new regime. Until Wheeler proves himself, Sandy and company don’t have a move they made they can sell to the fans. I know moves are handcuffed to the financial status of the organization, but we need new owners before that isn’t a problem.
    • srt August 14, 2012 at 10:26 am

      ‘I know moves are handcuffed to the financial status of the organization, but we need new owners before that isn’t a problem.’

      Couldn’t agree more.
    • Lifelongmetsfan August 14, 2012 at 11:49 am

      Mike maybe your just blinded by your frustration; look, what leads you to believe that the Wilpons are willing to pay Upton 15 million over the next two years then resign him to an even more expensive mega contract? Or are you willing to give up our best prospects in return for having 2 years of Upton?
• Alex68 August 14, 2012 at 7:47 am

  Guys, as dreamy as it sounds.. let’s be honest. it’s not gonna happen!
  • BadBadLeroyBrown August 14, 2012 at 12:11 pm

    Not unless Arizona plans on trading Upton and another top 3 prospect for Hairston AND on top of that pay the majority of the rest of his deal lol….thats the only way the mets would stop dumpster diving for players…

    Everyone thinks Wright is the main target this offseason there gonna be upset when they find out its Hairston and a Willie Harris reunion…lol
• Metstheory22 August 14, 2012 at 11:15 am

  Upton would be the 6th hitter on a good team. He can be a piece but not centerpiece.
  • BadBadLeroyBrown August 14, 2012 at 12:50 pm

    “He can be a piece but not centerpiece.”

    So you’re saying he’s similar to D.Wright in a sense