31
2012
Scott Hairston Believes Diamondbacks Claimed Him Off Waivers
An article by 
Adam Rubin of ESPN recently tweeted that he spoke to Hairston, and although Hairston doesn’t know who claimed him off of waivers, he figured it was the Arizona Diamondbacks.
There are two basic reasons why the Diamondbacks may have claimed Hairston – the first reason could be to block Hairston from being picked up by another NL West opponent – the second reason could be that they have an actual interest in Hairston. That second reason could also be significant for the Mets, and should have Mets fans clicking their heels.
If the Diamondbacks are genuinely interested in Hairston, it means that he could definitely be included in a package that could be used to bring Justin Upton to Flushing. The notion that the Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers is willing to listen to offers on notions scares some people away. They think it raises red flags because why would anyone want to trade away such a talented player? The Mets shouldn’t bother asking those questions. The only question the Mets should be asking themselves is who they would have to include with Hairston in order to get Justin Upton in a Mets uniform…period.
Justin Upton is a Silver Slugger, two time all-star, and he is only 25 years old. The Mets should be willing to part with just about any of their prospects in order to bring in a player of his caliber. Prospects are unproven players who may never live up to potential – Upton is a proven player and the Mets should stop at nothing to get him. If the Diamondbacks are willing to part with Upton, there will be plenty of suitors out there, and with all the Mets needs in the outfield they should be one of them.
The problem with building a team from the ground up, which seems to be the direction the Mets are going, is that the prospects that are developing down on the farm may never turn into every day major league players. No matter how talented the player is, it’s somewhat of a crap shoot. That’s why certain teams seem to always be rebuilding. There are no guarantees that the top flight prospects will be able to take their game to the next level. So why wait two or three years to find out that the rebuilding has to start from scratch, because the prospects you were counting on didn’t pan out? When the opportunity arises, they should turn some of these prospects into a legit player that fills a need – in this case corner outfielder Justin Upton. We aren’t talking about a 30 year old outfielder here. Justin Upton has a lot of baseball left in him, has yet to reach his prime years, and is more of a sure thing than anyone in the Mets farm system right now. It seems like a no-brainer.
Right now, the talk about the Diamondbacks being interested in Hairston is merely speculation. Nobody knows for sure if it truly was the Diamondbacks that claimed Hairston off of waivers. Maybe we will never know. But it seems obvious that if it were true, the Mets should definitely entertain an offer that would include Hairston in bringing Justin Upton to the city that never sleeps. And wouldn’t it be funny if the Mets were the team that claimed Justin Upton off waivers?
Today is the last day for teams to make waiver trades and players will still be eligible for the post season roster. Also, as an FYI - the two teams can trade the principles and fill out the rest of the trade package with players to be named later without having to announce them until after the season.
About the Author: Mitch Petanick
Mitch is currently an Editor and Minor League Analyst for Mets Merized Online. His baseball experience includes being a former All-Conference collegiate baseball player who had numerous professional tryouts, and he is currently a hitting instructor. He has been involved with the game of baseball for over 30 years now as a player, coach, and consultant. Mitch is also a former Featured Columnist on Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @FirstPitchMitch.
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Zack wheeler, fulmer and nimmo and hell, we even throw in Backupccini for upton.. DONE!!!!!!!!
Cecchini cannot be traded. I still do not understand your fascination with this mystery quote (that I still haven’t seen proof of exists) that Cecchini’s talent level is that of a backup infielder?
You seem like you WANT it to be true.
I would bet anything I can find at least twice as many positive scouting reports/quotes than you can find negative about Cecchini. So why are you taking the minority (very small minority maybe) view of him as fact?
Jessep — Might it have something to do with protecting Tejada? I think possibly.
Nope, just has to do with who picked him.
TRS86 — Maybe it’s a daily double. I think so.
Des – then wouldn’t we gave been calling Tejada a future backup due to Reyes years ago?
Well isn’t that precisely what people said about Tejada back then?
Not an everyday SS but maybe a good option at 2B?
Even after Reyes was gone some still had doubts he could be an everyday player and truth is he didn’t play the whole season so there is still a chance he could be what they all thought!
Or worse as big an injury risk as Reyes was feared to be….
I likethe Kid I think he is a keeper which is why I questioned the Cecchini pick in our discussion yesterday.
Don’t know or claim he is just a backup just that he has a tough bar to raise if he is going to unseat a Tejada who maintains his numbers in the future.
Do yourself a favor and keep it moving ok? i have no intention of interacting with you ok. please, do not reply to anything i post. i mean, isn’t that what you wanted me to do? now you try to provoke me in here as well since you already did your best to get me out of the chatbox?
ever since you said this to me:
jessep: I look forward to the day that Joe D finally eliminates you from this site. You bring nothing and I mean nothing to this site. You come from a place where logic and sense don’t matter not to mention your lack of English culture”
You’ve been dying to get me riled up and have been baiting me to get me banned.. please, stay away ok?
Alex, I just edited out the profanity in your post. Dont do it again.
Jessep, He asked you to ignore him, so please do so.
Sorry for the cursing, but i hope you see his intentions towards me are to bait me, as you have notice, i’ve avoided him, i’m not gonna get into the whole person he is, just hope you see how much he baits people here, and i am not the only one he does this to..
Alex, to be fair though you do the same with Jessep by continually bringing up either him or his ideas in responses to other people. So much that I can’t get into a debate with you without you bringing up Jessep.
Regardless, can anyone explain to me why on this site and this site only being baited is an actual excuse for poor behavior? Are we all really a bunch of 6th graders? Aren’t we all in control of our own mind and reactions?
TRS, can i ask you a favor? can you for once, just for once mind your business? there’s a history you do not want to know or be part of, yet as soon as something comes up you butt in… Instead of worrying about what’s going on in this site and its members, shouldn’t you be concern with something else? idk, something like your blog? you know, the one you shamely promote while being on another blog by having it with just one click of your user name??
Alex, you bring up my blog, not I. I already proved that there is absolutely no gain for me being here in terms of my blog. The reason there is a link your website box on the comment forum is to link your website. If Joe has a problem with me being here he knows how to take care of it. Thus if you don’t know what you are talking about and don’t know the history… stay out of it. LOL.
I will… I promise you i will..
OK Alex, so if I promise to never get involved with your ridiculous feud with Jessep ever ever again will you promise to never bring up my blog again? If so I will take that deal 100 times over.
IDK if i make any trade for Upton because there have been rumors for years about him having an attitude problem. Also nothing would make him more pissy than coming to a losing team.
I will say this.. I would not give up Wheeler for him! Good pitching beats good hitting any day.. Maybe give up Meija, harriston and someone else..
Hey I accidentally posted this under my name, but this fine post is from Mitch and I apologize to him and the readers for any confusion.
Meanwhile, as for you Alex68, that would be the worst trade in Mets history. I hope you were only joking.
I was.. I think i’d trade wheeler, duda and maybe mejia for him…
No sweat Joe! And I know I may get killed for saying this, but I would give up Harvey for Upton!
I wouldn’t gve up either Harvey or Wheeler for him….
There is plenty of kids to make this deal without them.
i,e, Duda, Valdespin, Flores, Familia and Mejia. You could even throw in a few other kids that are not in the plans if you had to add quantity.
Thats should be more than enough!
I think I said the same. If Fulmer, Duda, and V-spin or some combination of likes can’t get it done for Upton then run, run like the wind blows.
Top Prospects are involved when you don’t want to part with too many kids for one player.
If all of our Kids were destined to fill MLB roles when they are ready then you might have to trade a Wheeler or Harvey to get that guy…
But we have a ton of guys who are good kids just not properly suited to help this team.
Flores is an IF and at best a corner IF, Hits like the dickens but unless he hits a ton more than David Wright or Ike Davis he has no place to play! He has even less range than Murphy at 2B!
Sure we could use his offense but we can’t unless they convert him to a catcher or OFer…Do we really need more out of position OFs on this team?
Valde is a dynamic player but again is out of position.If he hit better than Murphy then maybe I would consider trading Murphy but not before that happens.
We have a ton of guys we could do without and Harvey and Wheeler are not part of that group!
So give away 4 even 5 guys and if that’s not enough then throwing Wheeler or Harvey in isn’t going to get him either they really don’t want to trade him!
I agree with the exception of Flores not having a place on the Mets. Until Wright is locked up he very well does have an important spot at 3B. While we would like to say if the FO wants him back then they will get it done, we have also said it’s up to the player as well. So until Wright is in the fold, Flores has to be the guy in the wings. Would I still trade him in a package for Upton? Hell yeah but I think you get my point.
Question, o ou really think Flores is going to give you enough over Wright’s Bat to make up for the loss of glove?
Because all reports indicate Flores has less range than even Murphy supposedly does!
Getting less for longer is not the smart play!
Getting more for longer is fine and all indications are Wright will give you more for longer than Flores will and all it’s going to cost you is money!
I haven’t read anything saying Flores has no range at 3b or 2b but that is besides the point. I am saying it isn’t all up to the Mets if Wright is back and until he is locked p you have to have Flores as a potential long term replacement…. If he has no other position anyway. I would still trade him in the right deal of course.
No you don’t need Flores because you still have Murphy where 3B is his natural position and Valdespin can come in and Play 2B
I believe Flores’ range was even discussed on the Radio show!
Again I haven’t read a scout say his range isn’t good enough for 2nd or3rd and I would want Vspin as a solution to any starting position. Again I am not saying Flores is untouchable, I am saying leave him at 3rd base until you have Wright locked up for protection.
His footwork at SS was his main problem but he does react well at 2B so I’m not sure if it’s his footwork that they were referring to, I didn’t listen to the podcast yet. I still feel 1B or LF is his best bet. I see a lot of Alfonzo in his swing. I could see him being a really good offensive player no matter where he plays. I love watching him hit. Nice short stroke that consistently makes solid contact.
What can I say to the two of you other than Read More and Listen to the Podcast!
I believe Petey Pete made the comment.
Just a quick link I found for you TRS
http://baseballprospectnation.com/2012/07/13/scouting-report-wilmer-flores-3b/
“Plays well at 3B where he can rely on reactions rather than true range.”
Somewhere else I also read that if he fills out his frame he will lose even more range and be forced to play at 1B or LF.
He’s a big guy and playing 2B requires almost as much range as 2B!
He might be fine as a 3B if Wright leaves abd his bat so far is awesome…
But remember he was sucking at the plate until he got promoted and while he is doing well now who knows if thats going to continue in the MLB.
Great prospect but compared to Harvey and Wheeler hardly a sure thing untouchable and if he gets you an Upton as part of the trade package then really what will you be losing aside from 3 or 4 years?
Untouchables for me right now would be Wheeler, Flores, and probably Fulmer.
I have seen Fulmer pitch quite a bit and while I am hopeful I don’t see him having that kind of stuff but then again I am not a scout. To me I am Harvey and Wheeler and get what you can get from the rest. To me I am ready to go for it in 2014 so build them up and get ready.
Montero would be ahead of Fulmer on he untouchable list. I like Fulmers upside but he’s hardly untouchable.
I guess I could part with Fulmer or Montero depending on who we are getting back.
Mitch — No one I know will kill you. They might question your sanity.
I think the only prospects you can label as untradeable are ones like Harper, Trout, and guys that only come along once every ten years. Harvey has looked good, don’t get me wrong, but we still don’t know what we have with Harvey. Upton has proven to play at a very high level and is still one of the rising stars in thise league.
Hi Mitch — I don’t think I said or implied that Harvey is above being traded. I just don’t like the deal. Aside from any physical or athletic issues, Harvey is a bulldog, a very tough competitor. The other guy has a bit of Hanley Ramirez in his psyche.
Ditto Des!
Hypothetical here Mitch…
If we had a Catcher who was great defensively and only hit .250 he would probably not be worth much to anyone else but would most definitly not be a guy we could afford to trade!
There are two things at play in evaluating talent only one of them determines tradeable or not.
1 – The ability of the player to solve your problem and what solving that problem is worth to you.
2 – the Value other teams place on that player because of what he solves for them and are willing to give in return to get that solution.
Untouchable should be based on how well he solves your problems not how valuable he is to someone else.
You could have the best OF prospect in the Minors but if you already have three all star OFs in your lineup and no place to play him then he is quite touchable….
Only if he is much better than the guys you have is he untouchable and in that case you trade away the guy he beats out for the spot and probably get just as much in trade return plus the extra years of Youth from the kid you kept.
Untouchable really should be about how much that player solves and improives YOUR team not how valuable he is to someone else!
You don’t need to be great or worth a lot in trade to be valuable enough to make untouchable in regards to your own team’s needs.
The question I ask myself when looking at what would be deemed “untouchable” when it comes to a prospect – can you gaurantee to me that a specific prospect is going to have a better career than the already established player that you may be able to get with that propsect? If the answer is yes, then the prospect should be held on to. Right now, I don’t see any minor league hitter in the Mets organization that would be deemed untouchable when it comes to Justin Upton – and I would also say that since Upton has proven to play well at the major league level, was a former #1 pick, and is still as young as most prospects are when they are promoted (except he already has two all-star games under his belt) – that any Mets prospect is on the table when it comes to Upton and they would be crazy to hang on to these players who may never pan out when a player like Upton is available.
He never had 100 RBI’s or hit .300. His defense is below a was below I .0 WAR or even negative. A losing club would obtain him such as the Miami Marlins. Let’s rebuild the right way. However, if we give up a prospect or two higher than our top 20 (not a catcher) with Hairston it would be a fair trade.
Ummm.. WhaT???? and our prospects have done what??? come on man, for every prospect that make it to the majors, there’s like 8 of them that don’t. and for one that makes it and becomes good, there’s like 15 that don’t.. prospects are not a sure thing and by now you’d do this because this guy is a stud and i think he’ll be a great asset to our team. automatically he becomes the best OF in the team by far.
Have no idea why the Backs would have put a claim in for Hairston. Doesn’t make much sense.
Because they still consider themselves in the race and they don’t want the Dodgers or Giants getting him. It was reported right away this was a blocking claim with little to no chance of a trade.
Also, I am not so sure that you can make Justin Upton be the PTBNL in a deal for Hairston. Has that ever been done? Where a player stays for the stretch run for a team while that team gets the player from the trading team and then is traded as part of that trade in the off-season? And we are not talking about some scrub reliever either. Has it ever been done where it was a significant player? What happens if Upton is then injured? I just don’t see that working. Obviously he wouldn’t clear waivers either so there is no option there either.
Look I would love to get Upton though, if he is available for the right price. No way in hell am I trading Harvey or Wheeler. That is two steps back for one step forward. The future of the Mets depends on the arms of Harvey and Wheeler. Duda, Familia, V-Spin, and Fulmer. If they walk away from that then to heck with that idea.
Justin Uptin wouldn’t be the PTBNL, he would be the principle. The trade would be Scott Harsiton and 2 PTBNL for Justin Upton. The PTBNL are usually already known and confirmed but not announced until season’s end.
Upton would have to be a PTBNL depending on his waiver status though. I cannot remember if he got through waivers etc. But you can bet any amount of $ if Upton was dealt, Hairston would be a throw in – not a centerpiece
IE the Dodger/Sox trade. Both Lee and Rubby have to be PTBNL because they didn’t pass through waivers.
There were claims on both and of course Hairston wouldn’t be the centerpiece, the PTBNLs would be. Because they were claimed they would have to be the principles in any deal according to the rules. The PTBNL which could be minor league prospects don’t have to be named technically.
Right and there’s a good chance that the Mets were not the team that claimed Upton and even if they did another team below them would have already claimed Upton. Thus how could you do this trade this year? If Upton can’t get through waivers and can’t be a PTBNL?
Of course TRS, but this is a fansite and we post hypothetical pieces like this often for the purpose of conversation. I strongly encourage all our writers to post out of the box pieces that stretches the boundaries of the regular same-old-same-old seen elsewhere. This is the fansite feel we look to achieve, the types of things two fans watching a game would spontaneously start talking about. The what-if’s that make talking baseball as much of a pastime as the game itself. This is what I love about this site.
Also we don’t know anything about what the heck this front office is doing. They dont even know. Alderson speaks always in assumptions when he doesn’t even yet know his budget and constraints. Apparently his latest assumption was wholesale changes on the team we are seeing now and that it will be significantly different in 2013. We’ll see I guess and upgrades at any position are not cheap these days.
True, and I like out of the box thinking as well. However, you can’t get out of that box. Upton has to clear waivers to be traded, right?
Or have been claimed by the Mets.
Right, I said that earlier but left it out of the previous one. Now if the Mets were the first team to claim him… that being said logically I would think there would be a team like the Cubs that would beat us to that.
Also FYI – The player may not be an active Major Leaguer player during the interval between the trade and the date the player is named
So Hairston could not be a PTBNL
Jessep – What are you arguing? I dont understand where you are going. Again, Hairston and Upton are the principles, they must be named. Lets move it along, not sure where you saw me saying Upton or Hairston would be PTBNL.
I meant Upton. If Upton was claimed by anybody before the Mets, then the only way he could be dealt to them is as a PTBNL and since he is a big leaguer he cannot be a PTBNL.
I just don’t see why Arizona would view Scott Hairston as a value so much that they would want him in a deal for Upton. He’s a free agent after this season right?
Regardless, Upton is a product of 1 of the best hitting stadiums in the sport and I think people ignore that out of luxury. Like Citi Field and Chase Field are so similar that it doesn’t matter.
The point that if the Mets claimed Upton and DBacks claimed Hairston is a VALID point with regard to “having a conversation,” but that is what the waiver wire does. It’s an easy way to test the market.
I don’t see Hairston at all as any incentive in dealing Upton. It makes no sense to me.
I agree in the fact that if the Dbacks actually wanted Hairston for this season then they would not be giving up Upton anyway. They would be looking to make a run for the division.
OK…..blocking a trade for either the Giants or the Dodgers makes sense.
And no way I’m trading either Harvey or Wheeler.
Harvey i get… But why not wheeler??? If he can bring a caliber hitter like upton here, wouldn’t you trade him???
Potential ace for a guy who becomes an average hitter outside of Chase Field?
Pelfrey, Wilson, Isringhausen, the Mets have had had more than their fair share of potential aces. The odds are usually against any prospect coming up and being an ace like Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw. Those are the exceptions. Upton isn’t a potential corner outfielder, he is a MLB outfielder who I think finished 4th in the MVP voting at age 23 and has held his own in the majors. A bird in the hand is always worth more than two in the bush.
I completely disagree that a bird in the hand is always better than the two in the bush. If those two develop they could completely change the organization. Again, Wheeler has out pitched Harvey in every step in the minors, why shouldn’t we think that he is going to be a valuable part of the rotation the same way we did Harvey?
Sometimes you have to gamble with prospect futures in stead of playing it safe right?
If you were walking down the sidewalk and saw a $100 dollar bill lying next to a lottery ticket for that night’s drawing and could only grab one, which would you choose?
Good question, but what if that $100 bill was in the dark and when you picked it up and looked closer it turned out it was really a $10 bill?
Isn’t that what the Job of the FO is all about?
Making sure the guy he gets is a $100 bill not a $10 one?
Lets take a look at some of his evaluations:
Is Torres really an improvement over Pagan?
Is Ramirez really enough to accept what you lost on Pagan vs Torres?
Was Beltran as done and useless (even as expensive) as You and Sandy thought he would be this year?
He deemed Harvey not ready yet when we needed a Pitcher to replace Gee, He eventually got the right answer after costing us what could have been an important win while we were in the midst of a losing streak that you and Sandy believe killed the season.
So far the only trade that seemingly can be called a decent eval so far is Wheeler cause he seems to be living up to his expectations. But thats still a bill in the dark until he gets up here!
So far it would seem that Sandy is not very good with evaluating those two in the bush!
If he made some more moves than he has maybe that would change and who can say for better or worse….
Which goes back to the One in the hand thing…Sandy does not seem to have the confidence in what to get or thinks more highly of what we have than even you do otherwise he would have traded them for something already!
It depends on the odds of that lottery ticket and how much I needed. If I had a one in two shot, which I am guessing the Mets believe they have at least those odds with Wheeler at 1M dollars or I could take the 100 bucks then I am taking my chances with the lottery ticket because that 100 doesn’t really do me a dang bit of good.
Ever watched one of those actual lotteries where the people have a 1/100 chance at winning 10,000 bucks or more? When it gets down to 1/20 people start going nuts and forming alliances and buying other people out for their ticket. Wheeler is no longer 1 chance in a 100 of working out. Not in the Mets mind.
I have yet to see a deal made here that was about “Probability”
Truth is most of the deals being made seem to be about taking the $10 bill because it’s cheaper than the $100 bill!
And when I say BILL I mean it like the kind of Bill you get in the Mail each month!
We have already discussed this so I will leave it at this. The Wheeler trade was all about probability.
Was it theprobability of both players involved being in the Hll of Fame?
Cause if Beltrans just has another year or two like he had this year he’s probably going to the Hall…
What are Wheelers chances to do that right now?
If I offered you a short odds lotto ticket or a picture of a $100 bill, which would you choose?
Unfortunatly for you Beltran is an ACTUAL $100 bill not just a picture of one!
You could spend the $100 on even more lottery tickets
I know people that would think that way. Needless to say, none of them are accountants.
That being said, it’s moot anyway. There is no way in heck the Mets are trading Harvey or Wheeler for anyone that’s available. Now if Kershaw was available? Sure. He isn’t and most likely no one available will be enough for the Mets to consider trading what they believe will be their two future aces to compete with Straus and Zimmerman.
I agree… you can’t trade that kind of potential pitching talent unless it’s for the upper echelon of position players. Justin is very similar to his brother B.J. in that they are a bit of a mystery of why they don’t fulfill their physical talent. If you read what the message is throughout our Organization’s minor league, everyone in pro ball has talent but it’s how you utilize the mental aspect of the game that is going to be the difference. Justin has better physical tools than his brother but like some have said has a bit of Hanley Ramirez in him. The Marlins were just looking to dump that headache not to mention the money that was owed to him. Justin’s salary is quite a bit…that contract along with his potential attitude problems I’m not giving up too many top tier prospects.
Hanley is 29 years old…Upton is 25….big difference. To be honest I don’t see the comparison. Sometimes guys just need a change of scenery.
At some point you have to consider the following don’t you
.304/.388/.541 63HR 208RBI in 350G versus .251/.326/.410 39HR 142 RBI in 351G
If a player from Colorado had those splits – we’d all say “product of their home field” in an instant. Arizona is a Top 5 hitter friendly park, while Citi Field is a bottom 5 or 6 for hitters.
You have to consider that, I know some people choose to ignore it. But if I told you lets go get CarGo from Colorado – the first knock many would have (and probably rightfully so) is his home/road split right?
You’re more likely to get that .736 OPS hitter than the .929 hitter. So in this case a bird in a hand is worth more in my mind
Can’t agree with trading Wheeler for Upton.
We had a Backs poster come in here last month telling us what a head case he was and he’d love nothing better than for the Mets to trade for him.
To me they’re both question marks. I’ll take my chances on Wheeler having the better upside going forward.
That being said I’d give up just about anyone else from the young core and prospects to make a trade. Excluding Harvey and Tejada. But including Spin, Familiar, Mejia, Kirk, Murphy.
“held his own”? Nifty. Also, Wheeler’s a lot more highly regarded than Pelfrey and has actually been through development.
By the way, how does he hit outside of Chase Field? This must be the 5th time I’v mentioned it in this conversation but no one will address it.
Would you have traded Harvey at the end of last year in addition to other prospects for Upton? Remember that Wheeler has out pitched Harvey at every stop in the minors since becoming a Met.
Also, do you not agree for the Mets to move forward it hinges on starting pitching and the development of Harvey and Wheeler are most likely linked to that?
I would liken this to would I trade 35 year old Beltran for 25 year old Upton and my answer would be yes, 100 times out of 100.
Until Wheeler actually achieves something in his own right at the major league level, I still view him as a prospect that we gave up Beltran for and not someone who should be tabbed as untouchable. At least until he proves otherwise and at the major league level much like Matt Harvey is doing so far in a very small sample size.
And then when you did that Joe you would still be missing one large big really big piece in the rotation that most think Wheeler will have a great shot at filling. You have the potential with Wheeler and Harvey to develop a Tampa Bay like situation of Harvey, Wheeler and Niese that can’t be taken lightly. So I ask again would you have traded Harvey in a deal for Upton at the end of last year?
I would trade a 35 year old Beltran for a 24 year old Upton sure. But I’m not trading a 22 year old Wheeler who along with Harvey could be a huge 1-2 punch along with Niese for a guy who is below average outside of Chase Field or whatever you call that banbox.
Fonzie, if Upton were in our minor league system right now, he would most likely be the number one prospect in the system, would you agree?
I would agree and the Strawberry comparisons would be daily fodder on SNY.
Yes we have no good position players other than Flores above A ball and even he has no position.
He’d be our best positional prospect, yes. But that speaks more to our dearth of position players than to his over all talent.
Exactly. Our best position player has no position.
Well to be fair any guy like Upton would be our top position prospect. When Lucas Duda went down to AAA he became our best position prospect, well at least that is near ready.
I’m not so sure he would be our top prospect Joe…
A lot of the UP on UPTON is all about those HRs he hits in Arizona but less everywhere else.
I personally look at him as a product of his location. And when Location indicates it is relevant to his performance, changing location may not get you what you thought you were going to get!
That said Upton is better than any OFer we have and I don’t mind having him provided we don’t have to give up harvey and Wheeler….
But when I see inconsistency in numbers based on location the last thing I expect is to get what he has done once that location is changed!
You have to look to see if the conditions that give him what he is getting are similar or creatable when brought onto your team!
He would be a good addition yes and I would trade 4 even 5 Kids to get him…Provided they are not kids who have a better than 50% chance of being a starter for the next few years.
That makes Harvey and Wheeler untouchable, If 4 or 5 other kids can’t get it done then the price is too high period even if we parted with a Harvey or Wheeler they would still want Flores and Familia and everyone else we have mentioned….
And we STILL wouldn’t know which Upton we are getting the Home version or the Away version.
I’d like to see Upton prove something outside of the 2nd best hitter’s park in the majors.
Doesn’t a PTBNL have to be named before the Season is done?
Nope – within 6 months of the deal
Thank You…wasn;t sure….
He is an upgrade at that position but I would NOT give up our top 4 prospects. Murphy and Parnell could be enough.
Murphy and Parnell could be enough”
Enough for what?????? Joe D, you need to start testing people for doping in this site
Maybe he is on the wrong thread? Perhaps he is thinking what can the Mets do to convince Buffalo to stay as the AAA team? Perhaps Murphy and Parnell would be enough?
Murphy and Parnell? Please, no overpaying; that’s too much of a giveaway!!!
How about Tejada and Thole. Now there is a pair of sluggers who will do well in the rarefied air out west. LOL
He is not Albert Pujols. Lets see who is closer to what Diamondbacks get if and when he is traded.
Lets put it this way, if you compare Upton to David Wright, what you trade for on the Mets roster for David Wright.
“They think it raises red flags because why would anyone want to trade away such a talented player? The Mets shouldn’t bother asking those questions. ”
They most certainly should. If a guy offers you a brand new Porsche for the price of a used Civic, aren’t you going to ask some questions?
And, by the way, check his home/road splits. That is more than enough to make me wary of this deal. Take him away from the very hitter friendly Chase field and his number take a serious drop.
In return if they want talent, and the mets take away the guy’s salary, why would that be a red flag?
Because he’s young and already producing for them. They have him locked down through 2015.
The team over all is young and has some talent. They play in a weak division. This is the kind of guy they should be building around.
And again, look at his home/road splits.
Thing is some players are just not good fits for the team they are with but become much better players in the move. Obviously the Dodgers are hinging on that with Hanley.
Let me ask you this though, is Upton traded yet? Do we even know if he is even remotely available or that they just put him on waivers like the Mets most likely did David Wright and then just pulled him back after the claim?
For your first point: The argument you present has been used by some of the same people who think “prospects aren’t a sure bet”. How many times has the “change of scenery” concept actually paid off over the long term? How many guys resurrected their careers simply by putting on different laundry? We could count them on one hand. And yet, prospects are a bad bet.
“Let me ask you this though, is Upton traded yet? Do we even know if he is even remotely available or that they just put him on waivers like the Mets most likely did David Wright and then just pulled him back after the claim?”
You’re right about that. I’m just refuting the claims of others saying they would trade near major league ready top prospects for him.
What you say is true provided your actually bringing him into the right change of scenery.
Hanley’s problem in Miami was he was the leader and then in an offseason was not anymore!
Wasn’t happy about being moved for someone else by his own team and the dynamic in the lockeroom changed
It’s difficult for the Ego to go from the most important man in the locker room to just another player.
Dodgers are counting on the new lockeroom where Hanley has no expectation or memory of them being “HIS TEAM” and that dynamic will lead him to just play to his capability again because the emotional baggage is gone!
Trades for players and getting what you expected from there is always about doing you best to re-create the situation that made them successful or to have a situation that is not detrimental to what caused the decline.
Hell Shoppach could be a fine example of that happening. He was not being used enough in Boston and when he got here was used and is hitting over .300!
The only time a change of scenery seems to be detrimental is when the enviornment they WERE in was contributing to the success they had. and that could be the case with Upton because the stats say he is a different player in the 81 games he plays outside of Arizona.
Shoppach has been here less than a month. And Hanley’s story isn’t over yet. I’m talking long term so it is worth trading a #1 prospect.
Lots of guys reported to have attitude problems get traded and play great for their new team for the first few weeks.
How many times has the “change of scenery” theory worked to the point of justifying trading away a potential ace?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=uptonju01&year=Career&t=b#hmvis::none
A 200 point differential in his home and away OPS. No way I’m trading Harvey or Wheeler for this guy. He’s the 2012 version of Duda away from Arizona. No thanks.
Fonzie – look at some of AZ’s other top younger talents.
Montero & Goldschmidt.
2012
Montero .792 home, .854 away
Goldschmidt .830 home, .887 away
Upton .869 Home, .682 Road
Seems to me the other two do just fine when they leave the park. Weird right?
I agree. And you can look at a Joey Votto who has better numbers on the road than he has at Cinergy field. I don’t buy that most players have better home numbers. Ask Ike Davis about that too.
Most players do better at home than in the road. go and check carlos gonzales, and other pklayers. is the norm. rarely you see players do better on the road than at home. not sure what his splits have anything to do with it. We discussed troy can’t stay healthywitzky’s splits as well, all players do better at home..
Not all of course. Many Mets players have done better on the road over the course of their career. I think in a fair park you can get comfortable at home. Although once your stadium is in the top five in offense you have to consider the park factor.
Yes, but Upton plays in the second most hitter friendly park in the majors and his splits take a much larger dive to comparable players, including his team mates.
“not sure what his splits have anything to do with it.”
Then you should probably learn.
“We discussed troy can’t stay healthywitzky’s splits as well”
Nifty. Show me where I advocated trading for him.
Ahhh, not sure what you’re talking about.. not that anyone does anyways.
alex, you do a lousy job of expressing your own “thoughts”. You should refrain from speaking for others.
Lmao!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well Alex I will point out that most players hit better in a desert too such as exists in places like Las Vegas and Arizona!
They have the same heat columns that allow balls to up and out better which would explain why Upton has nearly twice as many HRs at home as he does away!
I’m sorry, but after 50 years, Mets fans are still the must easily gullible baseball fans when it comes to the team’s hype on prospects. Some of these comments are tough to read. Have you learned nothing from history? Do you not know the odds of top Mets pitching prospects becoming aces the way some of you talk about Wheeler? The team that drafted him didn’t even regard him in such high esteem. When will all of you stop buying into the hype?
So we shouldn’t buy into the hype of Harvey either? The only thing at this point that separates the two is one year of development.
But our acquisition of hyped up outfielders, on the other hand, have all gone swimmingly.
“The team that drafted him didn’t even regard him in such high esteem. ”
Because they are already deep in pitching and were desperate for a power hitter for a playoff push.
Respectfully Pete, I disagree with some of what you’re saying here.
I agree 100% with over hyping of prospects.
But continually trading your top prospects for established players heading towards FA or already in large contracts leads to a huge payroll that’s hard to sustain.
The Yankees became successful in the early 90s when Steinbrenner was banned from baseball and those left in charge decided to keep and develop some of that good young talent. Hence the core of Pettitte, Jeter, Posada and Mo.
You have to develop and bring up some of the higher home grown talent to reap the benefits of that talent while inexpensive and under team control. You should develop enough talent to trade pieces you might not need or easily replaced for holes you might have.
Right now, I don’t think our pitching is in a position to trade a ‘hyped’ top talent such as Wheeler unless the return is good enough to warrant it. I just don’t think Upton is that type of talent. Stanton, on the other hand….
The team that drafted him didn’t even regard him in such high esteem”
Pete R… THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!! And if there’s something the giants know about is pitchers no? yet they traded a kid for a rental, but no, that must’ve not been a red flag about what they thought of him… SMH
Sure they held him in that high of a regard. That is why the trade wasn’t completed until the end of the month and why in the beginning they were saying no way in the world are we trading him for a rental. They did what many wanted us to do this year, trade away the future for a run at the playoffs. Not saying that is always wrong but if they could do hindsight and they knew that Lincy was going to struggle this year I bet there’s no way in heck you get Wheeler. But of course that isn’t hindsight. They knew to get a top bat they were going to either have to trade Brown or Wheeler and considering their OF or lack there of, they traded the pitcher in trading from a strength. Not very hard to understand.
But of course that isn’t hindsight. They knew to get a top bat they were going to either have to trade Brown or Wheeler and considering their OF or lack there of, they traded the pitcher in trading from a strength. Not very hard to understand.
Well for some it is.
I agree with you as why they waited as long. It was reported in more than few places that they waited the last minute because they were conflicted on who to trade between Wheeler and Brown. The fact that they still had Cain, Lincy, etc made the choice to more Wheeler easier for them.
It was also reported that they were waiting on the Mets to cave and ask for less and then when Sandy didn’t budge they were the ones to cave.
Peter I know where you’re coming from, trust me I do. But I gotta hunch we really have something special here in Wheeler. Maybe it’s because it wasn’t technically a Mets draft pick (because we all know how those end up for the most part). I look at what pitchers the Giants have drafted and I’m thinking Wheeler could be just another of many great arms they have drafted and developed. So that’s my two cents on Wheeler, but as for the main thrust of your comment, I completely agree with you.
Wow Hodges you read my mind. That’s pretty much why I’m so high in Wheeler. he wasn’t drafted by us.
Peter I do agree somewhat….
I sure an not counting my ACE chickens just yet in Harvey or Wheeler…
I think the best you can say right now is they do appear to be good enough to put into the rotation and where they go from there will depend as much on thier mental makeup and ability to cope and adjust to the MLB hitters than it will thier ability to throw a nasty Curveball or 98MPH fastball.
The way to reasonably evaluate the value of your mInors is to look at the value they have in regards to their ability to make your team, and fill a hole you have long term.
You could have the greatest prospect on the planet but if you don’t have a position to use him then he really isn;t worth much to you! (this is the case with a guy like Flores and for many others a guy like Murphy!)
You have to figure out what value they have to YOUR TEAM not the MLB in general.
Their value to the MLB in general determines what you can get for him!
Wheelrr and Harvey would have a high value to every other MLB team but maybe not as much value as they have for us at this point (where Santana is near the end of his contract and Dickey is 38 years old!)
So they are not going to give you as much as keeping them would give you!
People here say Niese is a good #3 or #4 rotation guy…For us maybe but to the Rockies he would be their ACE!
That means he has more value to them than he might have for us! (although I don’t believe so in his case)
The Value of your kids despends on thier value to you! If we had a good defensive Catcher who was not a top prospect he would be worthless to the rest of the league but pretty much untouchable for us!
And truth be told there are many fans here who UNDERVALUE our kids and think they are worthless!
Hardly true! Just because they don’t look like a solution to us doesn’t mean they aren’t a boon of solution to some other team who doesn’t have the better option we have!
Now… if we could get Stanton for Wheeler that would be a different story.
I think I might be persuaded there.
So now you wanna trade wheeler?? An oliver perez like pitcher for what might be in a year or 2 the best power hitter in baseball???? LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I get the whole “you like him for who brought him here” thing, but even you know that’s just insane!!
Thanks for the laugh
What’s ‘a laugh’ is comparing Wheeler to Perez.
Read all my comments Alex. I never said I wouldn’t consider trading Wheeler. I just said I wouldn’t include him in a trade for Upton.
That’s hilarious. We like him for who brought him here it has nothing to do with his 98 MPH heat or his nasty breaking ball. Yeah he’s Oliver Perez. LMFAO. SMH
The year before Doc Gooden got called up he walked a 112 in AA. He must’ve been an Ollie Perez in the making too.
I will say it, Wheeler and Harvey are as close to untouchable as you can get. There are always fantasy scenarios where I would trade either of them but the types of players I would trade them for are never available to start with.
What’s ‘a laugh’ is comparing Wheeler to Perez”
want me to once again prove you wrong?????
Zack wheeler minor league career in 67 games (59 starts)
23-18 3.51 1.275 WHIP 4.1 BB per 9 IP 9.7 K per 9 IP 2.36 SO/BB
Peres minor league career up to date:
33-37 3.60 1.345 WHIP 4.1 BB per 9 IP 9.6 K per 9 IP 2.35 SO/BB
AWFULLY similar no????
LOL
The difference is Wheeler’s walk rate has declined in each year and Ollie got worse in the bigs.
whoops, posted this below by accident.
Matt Harvey’s minor league career
20-10 3.48 ERA 1.290 WHIP 3.5 BB per 9 IP 9.8K per 9IP 2.82 SO/BB
Awfully similar no?
Also what was Harvey’s walk rate this year in AAA? What is Wheeler’s?
and two the parks that he was pitching in out west are hitters parks. Since coming to the Mets Wheeler has out pitched Harvey in almost every single category. There is a reason why he is ranked so high by scouts and it has nothing to do with Sandy Alderson.
Next question, what are Wheeler’s stats since becoming a Met? Why does that matter? Well for one he’s a Met now
As I pointed out to Maniac, who you are parroting, you do not look at minor league stats the way you do major league stats. We know Wheeler has been working on increasing his pitches, so his change up got knocked around a lot as he tried to improve it.
Also, it is not like both pitchers took the same path through the same leagues. It is no secret some leagues are more hitter friendly than others.
ACE
BUST
If he’s not an ace, he’s a bust.. According to some of you, he’s the next tom seaver of this franchise…
Good luck slurping this kid just because who traded for him…
The only person comparing Wheeler to the next Tom Seaver on here – continually – has been you.
We all know why you don’t care for Nimmo and Wheeler, while thinking highly of your boy Familia. Speaking of……how’d his minor league season work out?
No, if he’s a reliable #3 I’ll take that over a .251/.326/.410 outfielder.
Alex, are you “slurping” Harvey because of who signed him? Why do you “slurp” Familia? Bet you won’t answer that one. ‘
Do you know how ridiculous I feel using the word “slurp”? LOL.
Well, i have expressed my disappointment over familia this season… again, i like the kid, i like fulmer, and even plawecki, i have no beef with them and they were brought here by SA’s goons, not sure what you mean. point is, the kid has his flaws, just because i pointed them out, all of the sudden i’m a hater…
Not only have you pointed out the flaws Alex, you have used a player hated by the Mets in comparison when there is a player loved by the Mets currently who is a much better comparison. Harvey.
You have yet to respond, unless I missed it, to the fact that Wheeler has out pitched Harvey at every level in the minors since becoming a Met. Yet some how we are referring to Wheeler as a wild wild man and comparing him to a hated Met.
If this guy is the ACE most of you pegged him out to be, why did SF get rid of him for a rental?? I mean, shouldn’t we put any red flags on that trade? Or the red flag excuse is just for certain kind of players?
I think we have already answered that one but last attempt. Because with the pitching staff they had and the division they play in they determined it was the right time to go for it all and at the last minute caved to the Mets demands that had not changed from the time he was made available.
SF is the same club which paid a boatload of money for Barry Zito. Surely you’re not implying they should be the best judge for what our front office should do.
And you still haven’t responded to the fact that you are calling him a “wild wild man” with lots of flaws yet he has out pitched Harvey since he has been a Met.
LMAO, what???? bro, you sure you want me to post the numbers>???? Harvey TOYED with FSL, while wheeler was mediocre at best, harvey posted 8-2 2.43 while wheeler was 7-5 3.99 with 4 walks per 9 IP!!! come on man… every minor league level? Hopefully this will shut you up for a bit..
Did you miss the since he became a Met part?
Lol, i did…
Wait, are you saying that before we brought up Harvey he was an Oliver Perez like pitcher? Go back and look, since becoming a Met Wheeler has out pitched Harvey at ever level. Their walk rates in AAA? Identical.
Yeah really. Harvey even had a higher walk rate this year. He must be Ricky Vaughn “Wild Thing”
That’s a different story. Stanton is a freakin animal. His groundballs are hit so hard they make it to the walls before the OFers can cut it off.
Well, if we’re going in that direction, I’d hold out to see if we can get Trout from the Angels.
Ha! Even better.
Only reason I mentioned Stanton – as delusion as it is – is b/c he plays for Loria and I wouldn’t put anything past him.
I’m sure Loria will trade Stanton, just not to the Mets.
Well he finally did let us have Delgado
And LoDuca. The fish also gave is Leiter and Piazza even though that wasn’t Loria.
Matt Harvey’s minor league career
20-10 3.48 ERA 1.290 WHIP 3.5 BB per 9 IP 9.8K per 9IP 2.82 SO/BB
Awfully similar no?
110 comments when we all know Hairston isn’t going anywhere by tomorrow.
I love a good baseball debate.
That’s what I was wondering. What is the deadline for the claim? Has it already past? I know the waiver deadline is today but has his claim already expired?
I really have no idea, TRS. I didn’t now the claim could expire. I just thought if not claimed off the wire wire and dealt or acquired by sometime today, all bets were off.
I thought so, I thought it was 48 hours or so?
If a player is waived, any team may claim him. If more than one team claims the player from waivers, the team with the weakest record in the player’s league gets preference. If no team in the player’s league claims him, the claiming team with the weakest record in the other league gets preference. In the first month of the season, preference is determined using the previous year’s standings.
If a team claims a player off waivers and has a viable claim as described above, his current team (the “waiving team”) may choose one of the following options:
arrange a trade with the claiming team for that player within two business days of the claim; or
rescind the request and keep the player on its major league roster, effectively canceling the waiver; or
do nothing and allow the claiming team to assume the player’s existing contract, pay the waiving team a waiver fee, and place the player on its active major league roster.
If a player is claimed and the waiving team exercises its rescission option, the waiving team may not use the option again for that player in that season—a subsequent waiver would be irrevocable with a claiming team getting the player essentially for nothing.[5] If no team claims a player off waivers after three business days, the player has cleared waivers and may be assigned to a minor league team, traded (to any team), or released outright.
So 48 hours is correct . Got one right.
Note who is the same guy involved in one 100+ comment thread today as yesterday and not me!
Alex68, the reply button doesn’t work for some reason, but I have a question for you. Whose side are you on? I like to read the comments on this site, actually I love to read the comments here, but today you are sounding like someone wishing doom on our team. Who are you rooting for? It certainly looks like you are rooting against the Mets to me.
Original, why am i doing that? because i am being realistic? I want the mets to succeed, again, been a fan forever, i could’ve changed teams many times, hell, i could’ve been a pirates, dodgers, reds, or even yankee fans when i was growing up, but i stuck with the lowly mets, however, it is very sad what’s happening with this team and the new wave of fans of the team, with fantasy baseball and sabermetrics and all that crap fans have tuned out the team.
Just because i point out we’ll be a sorry franchise for a couple of more years doesn’t mean i am rooting against the team, just saying the reality.
Ah… but how do we know we will be a sorry franchise for a couple more years?
Did you listen to the Radio Broadcast? My guess is you didn’t…
Listen to what Craig Wolff said about the FO’s future plans and model!
the same way we knew that the team needed more than a tweak here and there
Everyone knows you are not a fan of the front office, and lately I’m losing confidence in them myself, but I’m giving them this offseason before I completely give up on them. But you make yourself look ignorant in my opinion when you take out your dislike of the front office on our own players or prospects. It just seems wrong for any Mets fan to say some of the things you are saying about Wheeler and your Perez comparison was simply awful.
Listen, i respecfully understand where you’re coming from, you have your point of views and i respect them. do the same with mine. i said he’s wild like perez, didn’t compare him to perez, obviously you wanted to make a comment regarding that, the kid has the stuff, but how many times haven’t we heard that in baseball about a pitcher then he flops? if the kid turns out to be a stud, fine, good, i’ll be happy, i’m sure the SA slurpers will shove him down our throats, if he becomes a bust, then guess what? nobody wins. i certainly won’t be happy cuz i’m a mets fan, it;s incredible that just because i say he has flaws and perez like wildness can cause such a commotion around here… And i’m sure all of that has something to do with who traded for him…
“An oliver perez like pitcher”
Your exact words.
You brought up Perez specifically for the emotional reaction.
Ok, perez was a wild guy who struck out many batter but also walk the entire ballpark.. What’s wrong with that statement…?
Because you are using Perez because you know people don’t like him. Its like Godwin for Mets fans.
Why don’t you address my points about comparing 2 minor leaguers who were from mainly different systems? It would be nice if someone could.
Was Matt Harvey wild like Perez in AAA this year?
OMF I respect what you said about giving them this offseason and chances are likely they will get it as no hint that the Wilpons will fire him or have even considered it.
But tell me what your feelings will be if that offseason means a trade of Wright and Dickey maybe even more players you think are future players….
They are going to get thier one more offseason….
The risk here is that one more offseason could put us so far back not even the best GM in baseball can fix it in the next 10 years!
And that would be a shame!
Is it still okay to say LETS GO METS!!!!
Yes Gina unfortunatly the Met mantra these days seems to be more like LET METS GO!
K-Rod, Beltran, Reyes, and soon enough we could add Wright and Dickey to that list!
I hope not but it looks likely!
LMAO, 165 comments!!!! and like 5 of them were pertaining scott hairston!! Lol… MItch, the CORE salute you because you get lots of comment on your articles per se, this one must be your personal best in terms of comments on it.
However, i encourage all writers to write about SA, Wheeler, sabermetric being crap and/or Moneyball and i guarantee that article will be a hit in terms of commentary.for a lot of people who claim they don’t love SA, Sabermetrics or moneyball, they sure seem to get riled up as soon as someone criticizes either one…
LOL thats because the SaveSandy.com Public relations crew go into overdrive anytime someone throws some tarnish on the shine!
Upton in his BEST year only had 88 RBI’s. This year he has 11HR and 53 RBI’S. A couple of Mets have comparable stats including Duda who has in Minors for a month.
Duda is not a five tool player who has played in two all star games before the age of 25
And once he leaves Arizona, neither is Upton.
A players tools are based on actual ability not the stadium they play in…he had five tools before getting to Arizona and he will have five tools wherever he plays after Arizona. Was he a #1 pick because of where he was playing, or because he has a ridiculous skill set?
Where do those tools go when he plays road games?
The tools are always there, but if you are referring to a player’s level of play when they are on the road versus at home, then most players tend to have diminished statistics on the road – in just about every sport.
But Upton falls a lot further than comparable players. That includes some of his team mates.
We’re not talking about a .320 hitter becoming a .300 hitter. We’re talking a .304 hitter becoming a .251 hitter. A .541 slugger becomes a .410 slugger.
Mitch, donal said it… so, No upton because since donal is 100% accurate, we should believe him and what he predicts… hey donal, since you can predict the future, numbers for the lotto tonight please ok?
True but then again Duda could be a 40-50 HR guy in Arizona too.
that is if his play in the OF ever lets them end an inning and get up to bat! LOL
He might have 5 tools, but he has not been using them this year. 11 HR and 53 RBI in almost 500 at bats.
The facts still remain that he is a former #1 pick, has five tools, is a two time all-star, and is a more promising offensive player than anyone our farm system right now. He’s accomplished more as a player than anyone in the Mets organization right now aside from David Wright, and is still only 25 years old. The reasons that people are bringing up on why the Mets shouldn’t bring this guy are absolutely ridiculous.
You don’t acquire someone for what they did in the past. You do it for what they can do in the present and future.
You can say “everyone’s stats suffer on the road” but
1) You’re wrong. Some guys actually get better.
2) Comparable players to Upton don’t fall as far as he does.
Actually, I said “most” players stats suffer on the road – which is a factual statement. I recognize that some players can, and do actually play better on the road. But it seems like you are basing your whole argument based on one season of baseball. If teams gave up on players after one bad year, then a lot of guys would not be in baseball anymore. Upton would be the cleanup hitter for the Mets for years to come. I still don’t understand how anyone could be against such a talented player being on their team.
If people are afraid about one off season from Upton, they must be on their ledges after the horrendous season 25 year old Ike Davis has had even defensively.
It’s not that I would not want him, it’s that he is not a perennial all star yet as people might think.
2 decent years out of 5 is not someone you give up your best in your farm for. Maybe Murphy and Parnell does not do it but not much more.
“If teams gave up on players after one bad year, then a lot of guys would not be in baseball anymore.”
Yes.
Of course, I am referring to Upton’s career splits.
” Upton would be the cleanup hitter for the Mets for years to come.”
.410 career slugging outside of Chase Field.
” I still don’t understand how anyone could be against such a talented player being on their team.”
I’d like to have him. I am just not willing to give up a lot for a guy who has yet to prove he can perform outside of the second best hitter’s park in MLB.
“
Ok I can live with that…I thought you were against bringing him in period. I still say he has more upside than any offensive player in our farm system though.
LOL it may be the singular point everyone on MMO actually agrees with on this planet!
We all would LOVE to have him on our team….
The only difference of opinion is if giving Harvey Or Wheeler worth having him.
And how could you evaluate what a player can do in the future without looking at the past? Why do you think employers ask you for employment history…because they want to see what you did in the past at previous jobs. Why do banks look at your credit history when you go for a mortgage…so they can determine if you will default. We are always evaluated on past performance in order to determine what can be done in the future, in all walks of life, including baseball.
You look at his past, you don’t pay for it. Big difference.
In fact, I have been citing Upton’s past. Mainly, the past outside of the second best hitter’s park in MLB.
Well here is where we disagree….
You get paid based on your past performance as the Market is based on what you have done since there is no way to determine what you will do!
And if you think your going to get more than what he has done you pay even more than Market value because you think he’s more than he has been.
You forget that the majority of Salaries for a good long time were accelerated not by Free Agency itself but Arbitration!
One team would give a mediocre pitcher stupid money because there was a shortage and wanted to be sure to get the best guy they thought was available and every other mediocre pitcher who went to arbitration got similar packages because they had comparable PAST HISTORY with that Free Agent!
As a result the next time a free agent came around and had better numbers than those mediocre guys the price went up yet again!
“You get paid based on your past performance as the Market is based on what you have done since there is no way to determine what you will do!”
Well, you try to guesstimate what he’s going to do based on his past performance. But, you shouldn’t pay a guy for the All Star appearances he made with another team. You pay him because you think he’ll continue to do so for your team.
“You forget that the majority of Salaries for a good long time were accelerated not by Free Agency itself but Arbitration!”
Yes, but whole other ball of wax.
Guestimate Predict, Valuate…Whatever word you want to use….
He is getting paid BASED on what he has done!
How far is dependent on the GM concerned!
Some ignore a bad year previous because of a good year Two Years ago!
Some do the opposite and ignore 5 years of Mediocre and pay based on just what he did the previous year!
But it’s all based on past performance and if you even want to get into the ballpark on a discussion with an agent the agent is going to set his price and your going to set yours based on what the guy has done!
No one pays a guy who has done nothing a lot of money based of what they think he will do.
The ONLY ones who get paid based off that are drafted kids and IFAs who have no track record to go on anyway!
At the major league level, past success is considered the best indicator of future performance. But, it has to be tempered.
As you pointed out, some players have made big contracts due to small windows. However, you don’t see 35 year olds making the big, record breaking deals. That is mostly the guys in the neighborhood of 26-30. Also, you do have to consider things like park factors as well as age. Otherwise, you end up signing a 30+ year old left fielder to be a power hitter in a park that neutralizes his power.
In short, you pay a guy because you think he can continue or improve on that past performance, not just for that past performance.
“However, you don’t see 35 year olds making the big, record breaking deals.”
Sure you do it’s just that they were so good they got that deal 5 or 6 years ago!
When your going to sign a player to money like that in most cases it is because you want that guy for the rest of his career!
And the only thing that makes you want that is what he did before that and tells you you want him!
“Sure you do it’s just that they were so good they got that deal 5 or 6 years ago!”
…ya… kind of my point.
You and I see eye to eye on a lot Mitch, And god help me for agreeing with Donal (Time for a checkup for me I guess…)
In regards to tools F-Mart was a 5 tool guy. And as was stated having them is not quite the same as knowing how to use them. This guy does seem to use them so no need to press that too hard here.
But his Splits home and away are not just a one season abberation…I was the first one to bring up those splits when it was first proposed weeks ago.
In his career he is:
Home 1438PA 1244AB 378H 63HRs 208 RBI .304BA .388OBP .541SLG
Away 1460PA 1299AB 326H 39HRs 141 RBI .251BA .326OBP .410SLG
So he had more attempts to put up numbers away compared to home and yet only puts up those more numbers with a significanct difference at home.
in +22 PA, +55AB he has -50H -22HRs -67 RBI -.053BA -.062OBP -.131SLG
Thats a rather significant difference!
If he had played somewhere else for a year where the same thing occurred you might have some proof that it is just a product of sleeping in his own bed and was not so much a factor of the park he is in.
Is he better than anyone else we have in our OF! Damn Straight!
SO is Shane Victorino and don’t think anyone would support giving away a Wheeler or Harvey for him.
It comes down to does what he would contribute do as much for us as Wheeler or Harvey would?
And I just have to say that answer is no! Even if neither is an Ace they are a rotation arm for any team in the MLB.
Dickey had a storybook season, But who knows if this isn’t just his career year and next year is not what we got the other two years, which is good but not Cy Young race good.
Santana is a question mark and even if he wins a Cy Young next year it’s his last under contract and is anyone interested in signing him to a deal long enough to make Wheeler or Harvey expendable?
Young is going to go the way of Capuano so he’s not an option.
Dickey is a decent risk to keep
Niese seems to be growing
Gee was doing fine until he got hurt
Santana being what he is who are the two starters to put in the rotation in 2014 and beyond?
While I agree there is a good chance Upton will be everything he has been and you think he will continue to be.
It isn’t as much of an addition as Harvey and Wheeler can be. And if he has attitude problems in a place like Arizone he will be eaten alive here!
Hell even smiley Bobby Bo got his smile knocked off when he got here!
And he was supposed to be as good as Upton is!
That said it shouldn’t take those two pitchers to get him!
No one else if offerring that much and if they had they didn’t make that deal so they want even more than we may think!
And IMO thats just asking too much!
Upton has a world of talent, and I want him more for sure, but I am not giving up Harvey or Wheeler for him.
Upton has shown the ability to hit 31 HR, but he has also shown had down years such as this one where he only has 11 HR.
so far….
2009: 26 HR
2010: 17 HR
2011: 31 HR
2012: 11 HR
He’s bit very inconsistent so far, even though it’s early in his career. As much as I want him I don’t think I want to mortgage a potentially young talented pitching staff to get him
Upton has a world of talent! Geez Dan you just sounded like Bob Murphy. Can’t you hear him up in the sky when Jason Bay is at bat. Jason Bay is struggling of late but he has a “World of talent” and works awfully hard at his craft. lol
In Upton’s defense, 2010 was an injury shortened season.