13
2012
Do You Still Believe In Moneyball?
An article by 
Moneyball is a ultimately a strategy that was developed by a small market team’s general manager in order to compete large market teams. When Billy Beane sat down and started to think about creative ways to stay competitive with large market teams, he didn’t write the word moneyball on a dry erase board, and tell everyone in the room that this was his new idea. Moneyball was a name, that was given by an author, to describe to the success that Beane experienced in the early 2000s. I’m here to tell you that much like Santa Claus, moneyball doesn’t exist.
Before you call me crazy, sit and think about it. The strategies that Beane developed and ultimately used do exist, but moneyball doesn’t. If it did ever exist, it ended once large market teams also started to implement Beane’s strategies once they saw how successful Beane’s Oakland A’s were. The Red Sox started implementing the small market strategies made famous by Beane, and what did it lead to? They finally broke the curse of the Bambino. But that wasn’t moneyball, because moneyball doesn’t exist.
There are basically two schools of thought in baseball – the old school scout mentality, and the moneyball school of thought. The old school thinkers say “wow that guy has all the tools,” but moneyballers ask “can he play ball?” Old school thinkers look for potential, while moneyballers look for performance. The old school mentality has driven me crazy for years. Year after year I watch teams draft players based on the coveted five tools, and then pay them upwards of $1 million just for signing a contract. They don’t even know if this guy can play, and simply because the guy can hit a baseball a country mile during batting practice, they invest millions. It doesn’t make sense to pass up on a guy that has shown he can play the game at a high level, for a guy who is visually or physically more impressive. That’s a stupid strategy even if you have a lot of money to spend. I guess that means my beliefs would make me a moneyballer, that is, if moneyball existed.
Remove the word moneyball from your vocabulary. Instead, call it performance based evaluation of players. Rather than looking at what this guy might be able to do for your team, you look at what this player can do for your team. You do that through evaluation of statistics, but also based on what you see on the field. You can not evaluate a player on statistics alone. The two schools of thought really should work hand in hand, not against each other. If you combine the schools of thought, you really have a total of six tools that players should be evaluated on (not the traditional five) – running speed, arm strength, hitting ability, quickness, mental acuity (patience at the plate), and ability to get on base. I firmly believe that teams should always value proven players over guys who have an array of tools but can’t apply them in game situations. I guess that would make me a moneyballer, that is, if moneyball existed.
One team that I think has been doing this well the past few years is the San Francisco Giants. They tend to draft guys that they can get through the minor leagues as quickly as possible to start helping the big league club. You can’t do that by drafting guys based on talent alone, so there has to be skill there. If a guy has tons of talent, but has to spend six years in the minor leagues developing the skill, then what’s the point? Just draft the guys with skill, and save yourself time and money developing them in the minors. That’s why Beane focused his draft on more polished college players – there is less development needed, and they can help the team in a shorter period of time (in most cases). Then you don’t have to spend big money in free-agency to address your needs. I completely agree with Beane’s drafting strategy. I guess that would make me a moneyballer, that is, if moneyball existed.
Moneyball doesn’t exist. There isn’t some magic formula, or mathematical equations, that a team can use to evaluate players and uncover undervalued players. If that’s what you think, get it out of your head. Teams can’t expect to win without spending money, unless they have a well developed minor league factory that is spitting out skilled players like Ford spits out Mustangs. This is an area the Mets are lacking. Every team uses the same analyses now, so those days of Beane’s A’s are all but over. But the Mets have a distinct advantage over those early 2000′s Oakland A’s – they aren’t a small market team. Those small market team rules don’t apply.
The New York Mets should focus on what the San Francisco Giants have done the past few years. They have to find a way to get guys to the major leagues, as fast as possible, because the team is in a complete state of disarray right now. There are guys playing out of position in order to plug holes. The problem is there are more holes than plugs, and we all know what happens when there are more holes than plugs – the ship sinks. The fix is simple enough – start drafting more polished players that will be able to help the team now, rather than later. Either that, or they have to pony up some cash and address their needs.
The Mets can turn this around, but they have to get their hands dirty, and re-evaluate their organization from the ground up. They better do it fast, because this is starting to remind me of the Mets teams of the early 1990s…and I don’t know how many of us can go through that again.
About the Author: Mitch Petanick
Mitch is currently an Editor and Minor League Analyst for Mets Merized Online. His baseball experience includes being a former All-Conference collegiate baseball player who had numerous professional tryouts, and he is currently a hitting instructor. He has been involved with the game of baseball for over 30 years now as a player, coach, and consultant. Mitch is also a former Featured Columnist on Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @FirstPitchMitch.
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hey Mitch – two things
“Every team uses the same analyses now.” – I think this is something we cannot prove but I think it’s wrong. I think teams used such a wide variety of statistical analysis – things you and I likely have never seen. Every team has their likes and dislikes.
“and re-evaluate their organization from the ground up.”
Isn’t that what they are doing? By re-structuring their entire scouting department, their minor league instructors and the philosophy of coaching in the minors?
The teams have access to the same analyses…they may value them differently, but they all have all the information they need about these players at their finger tips. The teams probably know more about the players than the players know about themselves.
The royals don’t really analyze anything.
They did the strategy you suggested. That is where guys like Mike Pelfrey and Eddie Kunz came from.
The fact is, the culture shock along should take time to deal with, never mind the level of competition. Some guys do come along faster than others, but you can’t go looking for guys based on how fast you can get them here.
Yeah, Donal is right. You have to go to the heartland of America in Wyoming to find talent regardless of whether or not they have a baseball program. That’s how all the great teams do it.
I think most teams do look at players with respects to how long it will take them to get to the big leagues. For the most part, if players don’t make it up within 4 years, they aren’t going to make it at all. So there is a time table.
Not true. Catchers in general take more time to develop. Most guys taken in high school or as teenage IFAs take at least 4 years to break in if they do so.
You can certainly look for guys who already developed in important areas, but talent is generally the #1 priority (and signability, but that is a totally different discussion).
Drafting on need and “refinement” is just a band aid.
Well written article about the term ‘Moneyball’ and one I largely agree with.
Not so sure about that last part though on how to turn this around. Agree that guys are playing out of position in order to plug holes. Getting guys to the ML as soon as possible though…that’s easier said than done.
and here we go… write an article about moneyball and right away the biggest followers of it post a comment… SMH… no wonder they love sandy alderson.
and the haters too ….. you are at NO POINT better then any of the other in here
Shouldn’t Johan Santana be released tomorrow according to MoneyBall? Jason Bay?
is Francisco really a MoneyBall closer? According to MoneyBall the Mets should not resign David Wright. Why spend when you know your not going to win during that players tenure?
If that’s the route the Mets are going then they should have taken a long look at trading Wright before the deadline for prospects. The problem is if you trade Wright, the ticket sales drop. I always argued that if the Mets knew they weren’t bringing back Reyes, they should have traded him last year and got some prospects in return.
I still think that Reyes pulling up lame just as the trade market was heating up tanked that idea, even if they were going to try it. Out for weeks with a bad hammy (after a few injury riddled years), and obvious still gimpy when he did come back. Not likely any team was ponying up a top talent back in that situation, so might as well just keep him then.
Would Brad Pitt resign David Wright? I don’t think so.
And when the heck are those two hot SportGift girls going to make out already?!!
looking at results (the saber stuff) makes more sense for established guys. Less so for college, and even less for HS. Since the only way you can use #s to “prove” that a guy is a ML player is if he put them up as a pro. And even projecting MiL performance to ML output is a crapshoot.
the most logical outcome, which you note and all teams do (with a proprietary mix of components!) is a combination of old and new school (eyes and numbers?)
oh, and it is a myth that scouts were all about just what they see. Teams always used #s to evaluate prospects. All saber did (or IOW “moneyball”) is try to figure out mathematically what they really meant to the bottom line.
“looking at results (the saber stuff) makes more sense for established guys. Less so for college, and even less for HS. ”
Pretty much what most scouts and writers I’ve found say. Amateur scouting is about potential (very little reliance on numbers of any sort)
Minor league scouting is about progress (more reliance on numbers as the prospect is promoted, but not very much)
The big leagues are about production (what are you doing for the team)
I am so sick and tired of hearing and reading about Moneyball. If I knew it was going to be like this I would have rooted for anybody else to be the Mets GM.
Hear Hear.. Not only that, but the fans of it is what makes a lot of people wanna vomit.. they wanna shoved that stupid believe and phylosophy down our throats as if moneyballin teams have ever won anything…
How does the guy with the gun to your head feel?
Excuse me? What does that mean?
He’s basically defending his lord. he’s basically saying it’s not his fault the mets are not spending , or that he walked into this stituation. etc…
As if he wasn’t a moneyballer in Oakland or in SD.. SMH
I think he’s saying nobody is forcing you to root for the Mets GM?
Yup. I never understood why people insist on reading or listening to something they claim they have no interest in.
Just curious but has anyone ever tried scouting a player? There are scouting forms on line that can be downloaded for printing. The pitching form is realty something to see.. pitches are recorded by location, speed, type of pitch and # of men on base. Very cool.
I have always wanted to try going to a minor league game with one of these scouting forms on a clipboard with a stop-watch and one of those hand held speed guns.
I’d read a web site with daily info on pitching prospects…. Whoaaaaaaaaaaa! What a job! traveling across the country and watching, scouting minor league pitching phenoms and posting the completed scouting forms on the web site!
I’ll call the web site…
Well I disagree….
Statistical analysis is as old as the hills!
for 100 Years, BA, RBI, HRs, EBH and even to a lesser extent OBP were considered and used to evaluate the players they would acquire, trade for and draft!
The only thing that Moneyball did was attempt to create (or use newly created) equations and metrics to see more than the traditionally recorded and coveted stats.
Moneyball may have used DEEP or more obscure statistical analysis and many team may now use it to evaluate players than before moneyball but that doesn’t mean that teams are actively using sabermetrics or even the same metrics that Oakland used in the 90′s!
What really changed is teams hired thier own stat analysis guys to come up with thier own metrics! They may incorporate some of the canned and accepted metrics we call ‘Sabers” but in most cases they go far beyong the sabers most fans know about or have gone and adjusted the “Standard Model” saber equations to be more in line with thier philisophical goals and needs.
The problem is many fans are clueless as to HOW to make up metrics because it’s basically Math and everyone aside from mathemeticians hate doing math!
Fans for the most part merely look up the few stats that have been accepted to be posted on websites like baseball reference, spout them off with only a limited knowledge of what those stats are supposed to mean and zero knowledge of how they were actually constructed which is KEY to the story the metric tells! And if you don’t know what is in them you don’t really know for sure if the story you think they tell is actually true!
Kind of like me selling you a box I say is filled with gold but you never look inside the box just tell everyone you have a box of gold when what you could really have is a box of gold painted lead!
I will point out that DEEP statistical analysis is what got you Jason Bay over Holliday because they looked at things like spray charts to find a guy who could hit HRs better in thier new park and determined Bay was the better PUL hitter and a pull hitter is what was needed in the then cavernous CitiField!
How did that analysis work out?
The problem with most statistical analysis is it in most cases leaves out key components of the possible results or adds in results that really have nothing to do with the quality the metric is supposed to be telling you.
There are so many who are on the OBP over BA bandwagon but OBP isn’t all about what a better did it’s about what a Pitcher did to that batter! Without comparing the OBP to the BA you can’t really tell how much is Batter and how much is just gifted. a High OBP and low BA is not sustainable by the batter that has it as the Pitcher has some say in that OBP the batter does not!
Your eyes don’t often decieve you as much as you think. That is if you have a good eye and statistical analysis can just as easily mislead you as your eyes can.
It takes both!
Your eyes will tell you WHY the stats are the way they are, a Stat will not tell you why a player is vulnerable to the high inside pitch nor will it explain why he hits too many fly balls or GDPs.
They can only tell you what the results of what you saw are!
But you still need to scout and see them in order to correct the mechanical, mental, and physical deficiencies that lead to the results the math will show you!
And anyone who thinks the MLB is an either or proposition on this front really is clueless!The MLB uses Stat analysis as it has for a century the only difference between now and before 1990 is that there are more stats being kept than at anytime in baseball history. And they are easily downloadable into a spreadsheet where you can create new and exciiting (and yes even dumb) calculations to try and tell yourself a story of what is good and what is not!
But in the end they play the game on a baseball field not a Spreadsheet!
baseball has always been about #s. That is not new.
But, it has always also been about comparing guys (my guy is better than your guy!)
and my understanding of the whole purpose of Sabermetrics is to try and answer that question. Basically, somehow quantify which guy is better, from the bottom line standpoint of winning more games (and related, generating more runs for your team).
Just look at 2 different guys from the same era playing the same position, but different styles. Say, Foster and Henderson in LF. comepletely different players, and both stars/top guys in their day.
but, which one is better? completely subjective question. But, what if you could quantify somehow based on stats which guy led to more net runs, or wins? that sure as hell would be helpful. And by extension, if you can quantify the #s, you can use that to evaluate which current player is “better”
Actually Stick, Sabermetrics is about Niche performance not overall performance!
WAR is the only saber that actually tries to level the playing field across all players and even the folks who like Sabers admit it is a highly flawed and not very well constructed metric.
Thats why there are 3 or 4 methods for calculating it and no one agrees on one standard model.
Sabermetrics is really just an attempt to get background on the traditional statistical story and to find qualities of a player that may offset some of his traditional statistical deficiencies in situations where traditionally good players are not available!
It really is about finding the best of the worst when nothing good is available and the traditionals fail to provide a candidate that would be better!
There are 4 players all with horrible BA but one has a better OBP than the others so you select based on OBP because there is no good “traditional” choice.
Thats really what Sabers is all about, How to choose a player when the traditional stats say there is no OBVIOUS choice!
There is no GM on the planet who sees a player with good traditional stats that will take some guy who is only sabermetrically good but not traditionally over the traditionally good guy!
Not really. It’s simply trying to get a more picture of what part of a guy’s production is due to his own talents, and what part of it’s due to luck.
And you all do it. Even the people that misunderstand what advanced stats are about and think they hate them and are useless. You wouldn’t sign a lefty playing RF for the Yankees who hit 25 home runs last year to play for your team if you were looking to add some real power to your lineup. You’d understand it was heavily influenced by the ballpark.
Sorry Ceetar but I disagree…
Luck only comes into the picture when a player does well and the stats can’t explain why so they claim its luck!
There is no distinction in the stats of what is an earned hit or a lucky hit!
No distinction of what is an earned Walk and an Intentional they are both counted as equals even in Sabermetrics.
a HBP is as ALL about luck yet OBP is a highly regarded stat that gets favored over BA despite the fact all BA is EARNED!
The only time a Sabermetrician talks about Luck is when one of his philosophies on scoring runs doesn’t panj out and then he says well I’m not wrong about what I think is important he was just luckier than the guy I thought was supposed to be better based on my philosophy!
wOBA (and WAR by inclusion of wOBA) count RBOE’s a weighted more than actual Hits!
So why would you count a stats of LUCK as more than one that is earned?
The bottomline of Sabers is really all about finding some niche act the guy is good at who if he can maintain that would help the rest of the good traditional players increase those traditional stats!
This is why people say go for more OB you get more runs but that theory really only works if you have a good traditional BA/RBI guy behind him to make that extra pay off!
Sabers really are an exercise in finding players who can work with the good traditional players you have when there are no other good traditional players you can get!
And hoping to find some quality that will be advantagous with the good players you HAVE since you can’t find another player LIKE those good players to fill a hole that exists!
I disagree. Luck is actually a big part of baseball and a lot of research has been done on it that proves it….
Maybe one day when your older you will understand what I was saying…
Yes Luck is a big part of Baseball!
But not a part of STATISTICS in any way shape or form!
Statistics are simply numbers that don’t tell you if Luck was involved or not!
And as I told you before, Statistics do NOT tell you the situation in which those statistics were compiled or what events led to that result!
It is merely a result with no pre-history as to how that result happened.
Sure it can tell you which count you got the hit, Can even tell you how many pitches it took you to get it.
But they can’t tell you what pitch you hit, what location it was hit at and what pitch set up the one for the result to occurr!
Numbers do NOT translate to reality until such time as a theory of EVERYTHING is derived and every factor that was in play (including wind, Heat, Air pressure and any other VARIABLE that YOU call luck and I call AFFECT is measured and placed in it’s proper place with the proper weight in the equation!
Why is it that when people get in a discussion with Connor they run to his age as a final word? Nobody asks or knows your age do they Metsie? Why does it matter?
If you’re trying to imply it’s impossible for us to find any young baseball fans who are smarter than you then I suggest you ask Joe D to delete a lot of your comments first.
Seriously though – you’ve gotta be the 3rd maybe 4th person who has gone after Connor’s age as a way to say you’re right and he’s wrong.
Debate, Discuss based on what he says – not how long he’s been alive to say it.
There is no one, NO ONE, smarter than the man with the 303 IQ.
Thats right Donal anyone with a positive IQ is smarter than you are!
Because if they took your IQ you would be declared brain dead and they would pull the plug on your miserable existence!
No, really, tell us again about how in an internet (so it is unverifiable) discussion about baseball (irrelevant) you out of the blue volunteered (needy) an IQ score (meaningless) that is impossible by anything close to an accepted standard (you couldn’t even lie properly).
And then continue to talk down to another poster based on his age.
I explained it to you the first 20 times you tried to call me out on it…
There are LOTS of different IQ tests out there, That use many different ways of scoring the results and in the end the score is not important as the percentage of people you are in that takes the test!
My 303 Scored in the top 1% of the people!
You wouldn’t know this because no one would bother to give you an IQ test they are too busy running tests to see if your retarded or merely crazy!
Yes, you’ve said many things. One day you might say something true.
“You wouldn’t know this because no one would bother to give you an IQ test they are too busy running tests to see if your retarded or merely crazy!”
Good baseball talk right there.
“Good baseball talk right there”
Yep and who started this line of conversation again?
Oh Right the court jester Jackass of MMO!
Donal!
Its very simple jessup.. Except in the case of you and maybe your friend donal, and the few other cultists who have chosen not to develop their minds and instead have decided to just be a puppet for another, Metsie is hoping that Connor chooses another and wiser direction and develops his brain and Metsie is laying this challenge out to him. Sad that you have decided to choose a path of not using your brain, of not challenging the words and actions of others that you have deemed to be superior entities. You might have been a wise person but alas you chose to be a stoolie, and waste your time parroting everything from your false god. The shame is yours,trying to deride another for using his brain….just one more example of your pitiful self. .
THIS! (LOL)
There is nothing wrong with being wrong provided you recognize where you made an error and learn from the mistakes!
Connor is going to be a much smarter person than either of those two provided he doesn’t just ACCEPT what the layman says is the way of the world and chellenges every beliief with his own mind and fact checking!
If everyone was like Donal and Jessup we would all still think the sun revolves around the earth because the earth is the center of the universe!
Only those who were smart enough to challenge the Mass convention and beliefs actually found the truth of it all!
Says the guy who doesn’t know the difference between an engineer and a scientist. And also doesn’t know the difference between electrical, civil, and mechanical engineering or city planning.
But hey, you go keep telling us how smart you are. It really is precious.
What is the difference between the two Donal…Please impress us with your knowledge we all can’t wait to see!
Here maybe these can help you form your response…
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CGcQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.esm.psu.edu%2Fabout%2Fwhatisesci%2F&ei=RHQpUOqAH8mE0QHYq4E4&usg=AFQjCNFaOw7CA4qki4cAvMvO7t_ijBtOdA&sig2=vyIW2cDLAhweBd36F7VPlw
http://www.esm.psu.edu/research_outreach/
http://www.eng.ox.ac.uk/
So go on slappy please do what I have tried and show the world just how smart your not!
I see you are flexing your degree in Wikipedia from Google University.
And we see you are over relying on your PHD in Doctor Seuss!
Usually what happens when a link gets posted to remind everyone on this blog just how dumb your actually capable of being!
Actually when you talk about BABIP and other similar stats, it’s very rellevant. Take Tom Glavine’s 1999 season as an example (this example was used in Moneyball.) Glavine, a perennial CYA contender before 1999. posted a 4.12 ERA. Why? The BABIP of hitters against him 1as .309, 29 points lower than his career average.
Luck is also considered a factor when analyzing home run numbers. This is one of the big reasons behind “neutralizing” home run numbers in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) to create x-FIP. The creators of that statistic discovered how inconsistent home run numbers can be. Often times, pitchers have “bad” years because a higher percentage of their fly balls allowed went out of the park. Wind, weather, fan interference, etc. Luck.
You just showed what I told you…
The numbers are INCONSISTENT and don’t follow the logic…It MUST be luck then!
Luck does not exist, Only probability!
And when your numbers suggest what is probable and the numbers don’t match up LUCK is used to explain away thier error!