13
2012
MMO Mailbag: Can’t See Mets Making A Serious Bid For Quentin
An article by 
I received a couple of emails last week… Better late than never…
Ryan writes:
Can you please address the abysmal OBP’s of Daniel Murphy and Josh Thole? It is the only reason they are on the team. Do you also find Mike Nickeas’ presence to be insulting to the other players on the team? Awesome site
I don’t have a problem with Daniel Murphy, and if I were going to complain about anyone’s OBP it would be Andres Torres who continues bat leadoff when he’s in the lineup.
OBP isn’t the end-all/be-all some make it out to be.
Scott Hairston has one of the worst OBPs on the team and I couldn’t really care less. He leads the team in homeruns and has a .524 slugging percentage and that’s good enough for me.
As for Nickeas, that’s a silly question. We can certainly use an upgrade, but I can assure you his teammates stand behind him and support him as well they should.
Sane Mets Fan writes:
So this is a question for Joe D. Carlos Quentin has come back from injury on fire. Common thought seems to be that San Diego is almost certainly trading him before the deadline. If I’m the Mets I see a 29 year old corner outfielder who can be in the heart of the order for the next few years. First, do you think the Mets could swing a deal that would make sense for both now and the future (not needing to trade a Harvey, Wheeler, Mejia type)? Second, would the Mets be in a position to offer him a contract to keep him in Flushing? I obviously wouldn’t sign up for a rental at this point.
The problem with Carlos Quentin is that he spends far too much time on the DL and not enough time on the active roster. In eight years he has yet to have 500 at-bats in a season. That said, I love his power and we can certainly use his right-handed bat in our lineup.
The dilemma for the Mets if they were to acquire him is where do you play him and what do you do with Bay?
The other thing is what do you give up to get him?
Despite the injury history, his production when healthy isn’t going to come cheap. Do you give up a guy like Jeurys Famila and a Matt den Dekker? Do you give up Lucas Duda who probably becomes a platoon player if he were to remain anyway?
The Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Indians are very interested in the Padres outfielder according to Jon Heyman and you can expect more teams to emerge as the trade deadline nears. So even if the Mets had interest, there would be plenty of competition for his services which means his price could be too rich for the Mets’ taste.
The Mets currently have too many questionable players logging time in their outfield configuration. Andres Torres would probably be on most team’s benches or on tap in the minors if not for the Mets. Kirk Nieuwenhuis has lost some of his shine and is piling up strikeouts at record levels. Jason Bay is always either hurt or unproductive. Lucas Duda is best served playing DH in the American League. In the minors, Matt den Dekker has slumped badly since his promotion to Buffalo and the last time I checked he was barely batting over .200.
The Mets could certainly use a solid bat like Quentin’s, but I’m not sure they want to pay the price.
Then there’s the question of signing him to an extension because he is a free agent at the end of this season. If he elects to walk, that means the Mets get nothing in the way of compensation in next year’s draft.
Considering all of that, I don’t see the Mets making any serious attempt at acquiring him.
You can email your questions to me at GetMetsmerized@aol.com.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
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| Phillies | 20 | 23 | .465 | 4.0 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 6.5 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
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Go Joe D, Great job on that first question about OBP.. you answer it like a pro.. You sounded like a total.. Saberknowledgeable guy…
Carlos Quentin is barely better than Duda defensively, he’s often injured and would require a high end prospect to get. Also he has a reputation as being difficult and he has cooled down considerably.
Bay, Baxter, Duda, Hairston and either Valdespin or Kirk are good enough when platooned properly….
OBP matters only in regards to where you bat in the order. Your first 3 hitters should have high OBP so that there are men on base for when your 4/5/6 hitters are at the plate they are guys for them to drive in.
You need to have a balance which is why I have always been against Murphy and Turner in the 2 hole. They are guys that put the ball in play and batting 6th/7th gives him more RBI chances than batting 2nd, whereas someone like Tejada, Torres that have high walk rates are better suited for the top of the order as their RBI chances are very low given they follow the 8 and 9 hitters.
Our most efficient lineups based on this season’s current numbers are:
vs. LHP: Torres, Tejada, Wright, Hairston, Duda, Murphy (1B), Cedeno, Thole
vs. RHP: Tejada, Kirk, Wright, Duda, Davis, Murphy, Valdespin, Thole
OBP doesn’t matter at all no matter where you hit in the lineup…
If you pumping up a guy using his OBP then he can’t hit and your ignoring the BA!
If you can talk about his BA then you don’t need to talk about OBP because if the BA is good the OBP is better!
OBP is the story of BA plus walks and hit by pitches!
Worthless unless all your interested in doing is talking about walks and getting hit or have to avoid talking about his BA because it’s awful!
Look I think people over value OBP also but to say “OBP doesn’t matter at all no matter where you hit in the lineup” is just wrong
“If you pumping up a guy using his OBP then he can’t hit and your ignoring the BA!
If you can talk about his BA then you don’t need to talk about OBP because if the BA is good the OBP is better!”
I can prove that wrong with 1 player so easily.
.244 batting average, .360 on base percentage.
Jose Bautista.
And I suppose everyone talk about Bautiista’s OBP and not everything else?
This is the point you seem to forget…
No one talks or pumps up Batista because of his OBP. Anyone who thinks he is a good player BECAUSE of that OBP has obviously never seen what he does or why you wouold want him!
OBP is duscussed and important ONLY when there is nothing else worth talking about regarding the player…
All else being equal
What player would you rather have leading off?
A .250 hitter with a .350 OBP
B..280 hitter with a .320 OBP
What player would you rather have batting 6th?
A .250 hitter with a .350 OBP
B..280 hitter with a .320 OBP
What player would you rather have leading off?
A .250 hitter with a .350 OBP closest example of this right now is probably Granderson
B..280 hitter with a .320 OBP closest example of this right now is Brandon Phillips
I’ll take Grandy.
SLG is almost a better indicator of a good leadoff hitter than OBP…
Find a guy with High SLG but low Power Numbers (HR) and you can be pretty sure he has some speed and turns those singles into doubles, doubles into triples which means he is also fast enough to steal bases.
And I still would take the better hitter than the better walker any day of the week!
If the BA is above .300 so too is his OBP!
you are missing the point again.
in the NL, where you bat in the order matters because there are certain spots in the order that come up with men on base (3/4/5/6/7) and then you the other spots (8/9/1/2) where the batter usually has less men on base.
OBP matters for 1/2 hitters because RBI chances are much less so a single is equal to a walk where as a #6 hitter, a hit is better than a walk since it can score a runner if there is not a force play.
nd your missing the point…If the guy hits then it doesn’t matter if there are men on base or not!
The only time a leadoff hitter actually is forced to come up WITHOUT men on base is the first AB of the game. After that he is no longer a leadoff hitter for all intents and purposes and may not start off more innings than any other batter!
There are 9 more innings where he either won’t get up to bat or start the inning so your theory is blown to bits after the first AB has happened!
THATS the point here, the rest is just crap invented by OBP Accolytes to give it more importance than it really deserves!
If a guy gets on because he has a good BA then what his OBP is doesn’t matter!
Increase the BA at the spot and you increase the BA with it!
OBP is never WORSE than BA!
It is pointless to even look at it because the only reason to use it at all is when there is no other thing that is worth saying about him!
If the guy can hit then it’s there.
If he can’t hit then it might be there but is pointless because the batter can’t keep it up without the Pitcher’s help!
And if he does other things that makes it look good the other things are way more important than the OBP!
Hence why no one talks about Batista’s OBP they talk about the HRs to dismiss his lowly BA!
The leadoff hitter always follows the pitcher’s spot, and the #6 hitter always follows the #5 hitter.
My point is the 8 and 9 hitters are the two weakest hitters in the lineup so the leadoff hitter is less likely to come to the plate with men on base.
Jose Reyes led the lead in hitting last season, but only had 44 RBI. Jason Bay batted .100 points lower, but had 13 more RBI in 100 less AB.
Order matters…
Does the leadoff hitter always lead off an inning?
NO!
So You have no point he’s called the leadoff hitter but does it at best once per game and more if the Pitcher happens to make the last out the previous inning.
SO none of your guys on base crap really applies to the leqadoff hitter and only the first inning can you be sure NO ONE will be on while in most every other bat there is good chance someone will BE ON where a hit is more important than a walk!
Tejada who hitting alone usurps their OBP!
Because he hit more than one guy gets on base period and his hitting makes his OBP well above the other in OBP comparison.
As for if I want either of those guys on my team it sure won’t be OBP that determines that factor!
Nor where I bat them!
yet despite having such a good BA and good “clutch” stats look how few RBI he has. Almost all of his hits are when nobody is on base. Why? because he always follows the 8th hitter and then the pitcher.
If no-one is on base when he is up isn’t a walk just as good as a hit?
a .250 hitter with a .350 OBP is much better as a leadoff hitter than a .280 hitter that has a .320 OBP because those extra hits don’t result in many RBI, yet those additional times on base result in more RBI from the guys that follow them….
We are talking about a leadoff hitter…
You want to talk RBI then guess what…YOUR MAKING OBP UNIMPORTANT!
SO whats important NOW? RBI or OBP?
If the guy has RBI then his OBP is ignorable!
If the guy has BA his OBP is useless to even look at!
If the guy hits for Power you don’t care how often he gets on base! Again OBP a aUseless metric!
The only time anyone brings up a guy’s OBP is if they have this God Like devotion to Moneyball/Sabermetrics or there is nothing else good in his statline to talk about!
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