28
2012
MMO Fan Shot: What Will the Mets Do With R.A. Dickey?
An article by 
R.A. Dickey has been a cornerstone of the New York Mets’ early success during the 2012 season. While he had pitched well in the previous two seasons, nobody was expecting a sub-3.00 ERA, thirteen wins and an All-Star appearance. His success has presented the Mets with a dilemma, and the team must decide whether to keep Dickey or trade him.
* How will the Mets perform?
The Mets were one of the surprise teams of the first half of 2012. With surprising batting and a good starting pitchers, the Mets spent much of the first half of the season second only to the Washington Nationals in the National League East division. The beginning of the second half of the season, however, has gone poorly. Now below .500 and in third place, the Mets appear to have only an outside shot of making the playoffs. Most experts expect a few Mets to be traded and some young prospects to join the squad.
* Dickey’s trade value
Dickey’s trade value is a bit hard to accurately gauge, and it is likely that teams will have vastly different ratings for his value; factors are more challenging to gauge than a typical credit card comparison. On the downside, he will be 38 in October. Further, his stellar performance is a recent development. Over his career, Dickey holds an average 4.14 ERA.
On the plus side, Dickey’s pitching style mitigates the disadvantages of his age. A knuckleballer such as Dickey does not depend on arm strength to pitch well, and knuckleball pitchers can often pitch well into mid-40s. Further, Dickey should be able to deliver upwards of 200 innings of work if he continues to pitch well. On the whole, most experts agree that Dickey’s upside outweighs his negatives.
With Zack Greinke, a two month rental, recently being traded for a kings ransom that included the Angels’ #1, #4 and #9 ranked prospects, it certainly gives one pause to at least consider what the future value of Dickey’s trade return can mean to the organization. Especially with the goal for fielding an actual contender being closer to the year 2015 than it is to 2012. The shortstop the Brewers got back, Jean Segura is ranked No. 55 in the 2012 Top 100 by Baseball America. To put that into perspective, Matt Harvey was ranked No. 54.
* Will the Mets make the trade?
Like making a business credit card comparison, the Mets must tabulate the advantages and disadvantages of retaining Dickey. As time passes, fewer experts are predicting a trade. While his trade value justifies making a move, his future value seems to outweigh his payroll cost and the young prospects the trade would bring. Once the Mets are again a competitive team, Dickey will still be young enough to make an impact, and his veteran status will help him guide a team of young players.
Further, fans have fallen in love with Dickey, and the Mets are reluctant to trade away fan favorites after the struggles of recent seasons.
Trade decisions are never easy, just as critical office decisions are tough for any business. The Mets will likely remain conflicted about what to do with Dickey up until the July 31st trade deadline. Mets fans who want Dickey to remain will be pleased with recent developments, but the possibility of a team making an offer that is too good to pass for the cash-strapped management still remains.
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18 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 24 | 18 | .571 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 20 | .535 | 1.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 23 | .465 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 32 | .256 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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I think you keep a guy like Dickey because he is not likely to get an arm injury. You need a veteran to anchor your staff. But a lot of vets have tired arms and tend to get hurt. With young guys coming along, it is good to have someone like that. Having said that, you cannot turn down a super deal. That is just bad business.
JDON, I SUPPORT YPOUR POSITION EVEN MORE EMPHATICALLY BY ADAMENTLY STATING R.A. DICKEY @ $5M SUB 3.00 ERA IS THE BARGAIN OF MLB PITCHING & A NEAR GUARANMTEED 15G WINNER WITH DECENT SUPPORT. HIS BIGGESTR ADVANTAGE IS IN THE NL WHEE IT SEEMS MORE FRANCHISES ARE RELYING ON YOUTH FOR THEIR REBUILDING PLANS THESE “STUD” ARE NOVICES FACING THE ERATIC BUTTERFLY, U NEED ONLY WATCH 1 DICKEY PITCHED GAME TO SEE THE BEST YIOUNG HITTERS THE OPOSITION HAS MUTTERING TO THEMSELVES AS THEY DEJECTEDLY RETN TO THE BENCH UP TO 3X/G. WHO ELSE CAN DO THAT FOR U AT THAT PRICE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME HAVE THE VETERAN PRESENCE TO BE PERCEIVED AS A COMFORTING COUNSELOR BY HIS TEAMMATES.
WHENEVER THE CAMERAS PAN THE MET DUGOUT U CAN REGULARLY SEE R.A. ALONGSIDE WHOMEVER IS THE CURRENT BIGGEST STRUGGLER ON THE ROSTER BE IT BAY, NIEWUNHUIS, NIESE, GEE ALL SEEKING THAT HOMEWSPUN SIMPLIFICATION OF HIS LOWKEY APPROACH.
AS THE METS LOOK TO JOIN THESE YOUTH MIGRATING FRANCHISES, PHL,ATL,NATLS,ETC. IT CERTAINLY MAKES LITTLE SENSE TO JETTISON SUCH A WEAPON & PLAYER/COACH SEEKING MODEST REALISTIC COMPENSATION WHO ACTUALLY APRECIATES HIS FANBASE & LOVES TO PERFORM ON THE BIGGEST STAGES.
IF ALL THE TROUBLE R.A. CAUSES THE FRONTOFFICE REVOLVES AROUND HIS CHARITABLE WORKS THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO NEED TO IMPEDE THE BEST GOODWILL AMBASADOR THE TEAM HAS HAD SINCE CASEY
Great article. Really well written. As far as the connundrum, I think if some team offered their #1, #4 and #9 prospects, then you have to make the trade. But anything short of some team emptying their farm, he should be resigned in the offseason.
Agreed. You don’t trade him, but if someone backed up the proverbial truck full of prospects, how can you not do it, or at least consider it. I hope they offer an extension to him. Maybe cancel the current option, and do a two year deal with an option for a 3rd?
That would work for me. I wouldn’t mind giving him three (two more after the current option year) guaranteed.
I was prepared to write a lengthy comment based on your title telling you there is no way you trade Dickey, but you totally have me on the fence with the Greinke rental comparison.
And who’s to say we can’t re-sign him again as a free agent?
Great job on this, it was very well written.
This isn’t about whether or not we love having Dickey around, of course we do. But given out history with never knowing when to let go of aging players and paying them more in their high-30′s than they earned in their high 20s and low 30′s, I say sell high. Sell for as high as you can go. We might be able to get more than Greinke because technically Dickey is not a rental. Let that sink in.
Dickey is a delightful problem to have. His salary at 4.25 mil. this year and 5 mil next year is the biggest bargin in major league pitching. I suspect he may be getting paid 15 million less than he is worth. Saber guys please chime in.
This team has made alot of “low cost high reward’ signings. This one actually worked out. Dickey’s value may never be higher. I say we package Dickey with Bay, who is overpaid by 15 million, and trade them for a bag of balls. Dickey would dominate in the post season. Bay would collect. The Mets would be a big step closer to putting the horrible contracts behind us.
If you believe WAR, and believer further in fWAR’s conversion to dollars you can answer your question that way. From Dickey’s 2010 callup through the end of this year, Dickey will have been paid a little under $8 mil from the Mets. A quick estimation on his second half performance, would make his “earnings” according to fWAR around $45 million.
Thanks Omar. Who knew that Minaya was adept at exploiting market inefficiencies to get the most bang for the buck.
What about Dickey exploited a market inefficiency? Are you just using buzzwords from a ten year old book?
People are still using buzzwords from a 3,000 year old book. Repent.
Fair enough. But what about Dickey exploits a market inefficiency?
Dickey + Bay = 21 million per year through 2013, Dickey is an Ace. Bay may be a 6th outfielder. It could be tempting for top team that needs more pitching.
JERSEY, I HOPE U DON’T HAVE AN M.D. FOLLOWING YOUR REAL NAME SINCE YOUR LIKELY CURE FOR BLINDNESS WOULD BE PUNCTURING SOMEONE’S EARDRUMS. OR CURING HEADACHES BY SMASHING FEET.
BTW, HOW ARE U PLANNING ON REPLACING RA”s REMAINING WINS? SANTANA DOWN, GEE DOWN, PELFREY DOWN & LIKELY OUT ARE U REALLY PREPARED FOR A 2013 ROTATION HEADED UP BY NIESE AS YOUR TOP VETERAN PITCHER?
First of all TC saying that he might put RA on shorter rest to have him pitch more is so stupid cause what about the other pitchers and their routines, how ridiculous is this thought; now if the playoff picture was better then maybe but…
I say we keep him because even if he is good for only 11-15 wins a year the influence he will have on other pitchers plus team mates is worth more than possible prospects.
No Han not being in long term plans means a pitcher/person/friend/charitable person like RA is important for the players and the fans even more.
I say give him a 2-3 year contract with mutual options and keep this a feel good story for a struggling team.
SARGE WHAT’S WITH THIS “ONLY 11-15 WINS” CRAP WHO ELSE IS THERE IN ALL OF MLB WHO CAN CONSISTANTKLY GIVE YOU THAT AS A SERIOUS CONSIDERATION ALONG WITH THE MATURITY, STABILITY REQUIRED FOR >10M PER?
BTW, I VERY MUCH DOUBT THE BEST OFF OUR FARM GIVES US THAT CONSIDSTANTLY OVER THE NEXT 5-7 YRS WHILE WE WAIT FOR THEM TO DEMAND THE MOON, STARS & KING’S RANSOM JUST PRIOR TO THEIR PHYSICAL BREAKDOWN
SANTANA TO DATE HAS COST US A RATHER LARGE FORTUNE TO PROVIDE 11-15 OR HADN’T U NOTICED. 2012 IS NOT A FLUKE IT’S A CULMINATION. NOTHING IN DICKEY’S RESUME COUNTS PRIOR TO ’09 BECAUSE THOSE STATS WERE THE RESULT OF BEING A STANDARD REPETOIRE PITCHER HIS ENTIRE NYM CAREER HAS BEEN HIS ONLY TRUE-KNUKLEBALLER RECORD. & THAT’S BETTER & MORE CONSISTANT THAN ANY OTHER PITCHER WE’VE HAD SINCE ’00.
IN ADDITION FEW EVER CONSIDER THE SECURITY THERE IS IN KNOWING R.A. WILL NEVER, EVER NEED TJ SURGERY NO MATTER HOW LONG HE CONTINUES PITCHING ALL THAT AND DOUBLE DIGIT WINS, SUB 3.00 ERA SUB 1.3 WHIP FOR $5-10M PER SURELY HARVEY, WHEELER, STRAUSSBERG & OTHERS CAN BE COUNTED ON FOR THE STATS PORTION; BUT AT WHAT PRICE AFTER THEY EARN THEIR FREEDOM
BTW, HAVE U ASSIMILATED LINCECUM’S SEASONAL STATS SO FAR?
THAT SHOULD GIVE U A RWNEWED RESPECT FOR THAT 11-15 ASSUMPTIVE POWER.
As a fan, I don’t even want to contemplate trading RA Dickey anytime soon.
Since baseball is more business oriented than we’d like to believe, I’m sure this FO is open to any and all trade talks. If you look at the stats and what his performance has been worth, you’ll see we’re getting a bargain. I don’t believe many teams would be willing to part with pieces that equal his worth. As Dickey is often quoted, it’s an uphill battle to get the knuckle ball to be taken seriously by some, instead of a one trick pitch.