9
2012
MMO Crossfire: The Case For and Against Trading For Justin Upton
An article by 
In the first edition of a new feature here on Metsmerized, Jessep and XtreemIcon argue their cases for and against Justin Upton who is once again on the trading block for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and this time it sounds like they mean it. The talented young outfielder is only 24, but there’s a compelling case to be made on both sides of the debate, and the choice is not as easy as it may seem. Consider both sides and let us know whether you believe the Mets should be hot on the trail of this up and coming talent.
I’m All For Adding Justin Upton
By XtreemIcon
Trading for Justin Upton is certainly not a no-brainer, nor is it very likely the D-Backs would trade him while still only four games out of first place. That said, if the Mets have a serious offer to make, they should be very vocal in their interest. Upton is one of the most talented, well-rounded players and solves several of the issues the Mets need to address to become serious contenders.
Upton provides outstanding outfield defense and power from the right side. Keep in mind, however, Arizona is an extreme hitter’s park and there would be a significant drop-off in his home run potential in a move to Queens. It’s not out of the question to hope for 25 home runs, but expect 22. Upton has speed, but doesn’t know how to use it. He’s a terrible base stealer, with only a 68% success rate for his career. At 24, he’s young enough to expect that improve with his maturity as a ballplayer.
Upton is owed the remainder of his $6.75 million salary for this year and $38.5 million through the 2015 season. He’s a bargain at that price, and might even afford the Mets the opportunity to take on a large part of the salary and keep the player demand lower. It’s unlikely the D-Backs would part with Upton for anything less than a young major league outfielder with potential, to jump in and replace Upton immediately, one of the trading partner’s two or three best pitching prospects and two more in the top 20, however. Upton won’t come cheap.
For the Mets, this would possibly be Kirk Nieuwenhuis or Lucas Duda, along with either Matt Harvey or Zack Wheeler, either Jeurys Familia or Jenrry Mejia, and Wilmer Flores. Arizona’s farm system is low on infield prospects. Is that worth it? I say yes. Remember the “not a no-brainer” above? Well, that means no deal if Arizona asks for both Wheeler and Harvey in the same deal. I’ll trade either one, but not both. After that, there’s no one I’d be upset parting with for Upton. I’d much prefer Duda go over Kirk, but I’m not going to hold up the deal over someone a month shy of his 25th birthday who can’t hit lefties and strikes out 30% of the time.
It would be irresponsible of me not to address Upton’s power struggle this season. His batting average and on base percentage aren’t cause for concern, hovering right around career norms, but his slugging percentage is 89 points lower than his career average and he’s on pace for full-season lows in home runs and doubles. This is likely attributed to the huge jump in percentage of balls outside the strike zone Justin’s putting in play. Contact isn’t as strong on pitches off the plate, which has lead to a near 12% decrease in fly balls and 9% increase in ground balls from last season. Ground balls tend to not leave the yard.
All that said, those numbers are not indicative of Upton’s career and could be categorized right now as just a blip on the radar. Under Dave Hudgens’ tutelage as he enters his prime, Upton would put those numbers behind him.
It’s entirely possible Arizona’s price is too high, or maybe they come out of the break hot and close the gap quickly in the West and become buyers themselves. But it’s not often an MVP candidate with an affordable contract comes down the pike. With the pieces in the farm to potentially make a deal, the Mets need to make every effort to make something happen.
Thumbs Down On Justin Upton
By Jessep
First, let me make this clear. I realize I am likely going to be in the minority with this one. I am not in favor of the Mets trading for Justin Upton during the 2012 season.
I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that Upton is a talented player. I just feel he is wrong for this team, right now.
Before anybody assumes my reasons, let me detail them out for you:
- Chemistry: I feel like this team is performing above expectations, and above their own “everyday” abilities. I think they pick each other up, and they seem to have camaraderie like I have rarely seen in a Mets clubhouse. I feel like this team needs guys who can blend in, rather than start to take the spotlight away from players like Wright, Dickey, Johan, and maybe Davis and Tejada.
- Lucas Duda: If you tell me the plan is to put him in CF, then I’m more flexible on my feelings about this. However, if you’re telling me Duda is sent to Arizona then I’m out. I don’t LOVE Lucas Duda yet, but I believe he plays a roll on this team and fits with this team so well. I think if you add Upton in RF, you still have an issue in LF unless Duda is moved to LF. My initial thought is, it would take Duda in a deal to get Upton though.
- Fans: There have been several stories lately and two years ago about how Upton has reacted to fan criticism, including boos. Now, some stories say the fans are throwing out racial slurs. There’s no excuse for that ever. When it comes to boos and criticism though, if the Arizona fan base bothers you then you better buckle your seatbelt when you come to Flushing.
- Why now?: I am always very weary as to why a team like Arizona would trade a 24 year old player who is under contract? A player that the franchise has invested a lot of money and time in. Is it to get value, or is there a deeper problem that we don’t know?
- The Price: I’m actually not a huge “hold onto prospects” guys. Depending on where your team is at, I think prospects should also be viewed as trading pieces. If the price includes Harvey or Wheeler, then I’m out.
- Lingering Concern: In 2011, Upton had his best season finishing 4th in the MVP voting. He finally looked to hit the potential we all thought he’d hit. In 79 home games he hit .333 with 20 HR, 56 RBI and a SLG of .622. In 80 away games he hit .246 with 11 HR, 32 RBI and a SLG of .439. Chase Field is enormously different than Citi Field for an offensive player. I am not suggesting that Upton would be some terrible hitter in NY, I am suggesting that his best campaign was largely due to the fact he benefitted from a top 5 hitters parks in MLB.
At the end of the day, my worry is messing up a good thing. This team is where it is largely because of the team’s chemistry. I don’t feel they NEED a “spotlight” guy right now.
If you’re talking winter 2013, sure. Right now though, I don’t think he fits.
If it happened, I likely wouldn’t be upset. If you’re telling me Kirk, Familia, and Den Dekker gets Upton and he becomes the CF, then sign me up.
However, I feel he’s a 24 year old under contract and he will command a much higher pricetag. I feel like he will cost the Mets Duda or Valdespin plus Harvey or Wheeler. If that is the case, then I have to take my ball and go home.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 25 | 18 | .581 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 21 | .523 | 2.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 23 | .477 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 17 | 24 | .415 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 12 | 32 | .273 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/19/2013
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I have to side with X here.
Justin Upton is a guy you can build you’re team around. He’s only 24 and is already a two time allstar and a sliver slugger. I’d be willing to give some our top prospects for him because it’s very rare to be able to get a player this young and this talented.
Vinny: Thanks for the comment. I’d be shocked if anybody sided with me lol. I went into this knowing I was in the minority here.
I just feel its easier said than done, and tried to come up with non “sabr, prospects, money” reasons why I didn’t like it.
If it doesn’t cost Duda, I’m more interested. If Duda can play LF then even better. If Upton can play CF, even better.
Upton > Duda and it’s not even close. Upton is 24 and a 2 time all-starObviously it would take more than just Duda, but I would be all for it.
I don’t know how much the Mets would have to give up, but the Mets could put up a package of Kirk/Spin, Duda and a high end pitching prospect like Mejia, Familia, Tapia etc.
an OF of Bay/Baxter Valdespin/Hairston and Upton would be excellent
Another avenue the Mets could look at is Chris Young (the OF). He can only hit lefties so he’s perfect for us and is excellent defensively. The Mets could get him for nothing if they absorbed his contract which isn’t too bad…
Good points, Jessep. The team chemistry thing is not without warrant, but I think the unique situation of having the team’s leader as an old, childhood friend sort of counteracts that. And the spotlight issue doesn’t hold water to me when said friend is currently the best third baseman in the league and RA Dickey happens to be the best story in baseball right now. I think Upton might fly under the radar here, at least this season.
I’m not sure about Duda. I don’t see a scenario where Lucas Duda holds up a trade for Upton. Sorry.
I addressed the disparity in ballparks in my section, but I think Upton offers far more than power, which would be the attribute most affected by the switch.
Good debate, though.
Chemistry??? wait, what????
What about it? It’s a valid point. It’s always a concern when an MVP candidate like that comes into a team as close as the Mets are.
I’d trade for him though not Harvey or Wheeler. I see Duda as big questionmark, see a lot of regression in his defense and some at the plate with mechanical issues as well as confidence. With his defense being significant concern and an alarming regression, one has to consider how he fits here for the longer term.
He should, however, be traded for a stud given his power ceiling, and Upton is indeed a stud in that he’s rich in both talent and youth, and playing under the tutelage of Collins, Hudgens and the staff, as well as with ballplayers who give a damn, might be really great thing for him – and us. I have confidence that in this atmosphere, he’ll thrive as player, person and teammate, even if not initially.
I wouldn’t, in fact, hesitate to depart with Neiwenhuis either, but would not part with Den Dekker, Valdespin or Flores. I think the Mets could still put together a desirable package of other players that meet AZ’s needs given we really do have depth to work with. For us though, a future outfield of Den Dekker in CF, Upton in right, Valdespin in left, eventually Nimmo wherever, makes the future bright.
Looks as if I am the first to comment on this post, which is pretty exciting for me, considering this is a topic I have been thinking about quite a bit. Justin Upton is a once-in-a-lifetime possibility and unlike Jessep, I know for a fact Upton would fit in perfectly in this team. Not only would his bat fit perfectly into our line-up, but so would Justin as a person. Here is a trivia question for you: What three major league players did our own David Wright grow up with? The answer is: Ryan Zimmerman, BJ Upton, and JUSTIN UPTON. Wright actually played SS on an AAU team that featured Wright, Zimmerman, AND BJ Upton. I don’t think Justin would look to take the spotlight off anyone, definitely not a childhood friend such as David.
The next question of course is what to give up for him? This is the toughest question. I would do anything I could to keep three names and three names ONLY. Apart from Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, and Wilmer Flores; anyone and everyone in our minor leagues is expendable. I do believe a deal including Duda, Valdespin, and Harvey would get the deal done, but I think we would be better off keeping the upside of Harvey and giving up a couple more names instead. In this deal, Duda/Nieuwenhuis plus Valdespin are gone anyway you slice the cake. Maybe Arizona would take Davis in their place (which I would honestly be open to), but that isn’t as likely given Davis’ awful first half. As far as prospects, I would offer offensive guys like Havens, Phil Evans, Den Dekker, Cory Vaughn (even though I love this kid’s talent, Upton makes him expendable), Zack Lutz, Cesar Puello, and even major leaguer Justin Turner. Pitching prospects I would offer are guys like top prospect Jeurys Familia, Mejia, Darin Gorski, Domingo Tapia, Rafael Montero, Mike Fulmer. I think a good substitute for Wheeler or Harvey could be any two from this list.
So without further adieu, this would be my initial offer to Arizona:
NY Mets get: Justin Upton/(maybe cash)
ARI gets: Lucas Duda, Jordany Valdespin, Reese Havens, Jeurys Familia
This proposal would work out for both teams both immediately and in the future. Honestly, this deal COULD work out better for Arizona if Havens ever becomes healthy on a regular basis…. but that is a VERY big IF.
So, what do you guys think? And also, what do you think Colorado would say if we gave them a similar offer for Carlos Gonzalez? (Just a thought)
thanks for the comment!
I am aware of his relationship with Wright, I meant the team chemistry and the dynamic of the team.
Here’s another point to make okay…
If I asked you what are the Mets top 3 position needs. You’d say Bullpen, LF, and then you could debate the 3rd forever.
If Upton means you can move Duda to LF then great. You kill 2 birds with 1 stone. My entire point was what if it costs you Duda?
What weakness are you fixing if you acquire Upton and Duda is involved?
You’re replacing .249 12HR 44 RBI with .273 7HR 37 RBI. I *know* Upton can be a great player.
But does what he do in 2012 offset the need for a LF if Duda is gone? I don’t know but I’m leaning toward no.
Again if you tell me winter meetings 2012 this is discussed, I’m in.
But it doesn’t fix their 2 biggest needs right now. It spends top prospects and youth on upgrading a position that doesn’t NEED an upgrade right now.
As I said if you tell me Kirk, Familia, and Den Dekker or even Flores gets it done then I am in. I’ll live with Torres/Spin in CF and put Duda in LF and Upton in RF.
If you tell me the deal shoves Duda off the team or into a platoon, then I don’t like it right now.
As much as I ABSOLUTELY HATE to say it, one of either Captain Kirk or The Dude is going to be expendable in the future because of guys like Nimmo and Cory Vaughn. I am what I like to call a True-Realistic Met fan (aka: Look to the future to build a 1980′s esque dynasty). If we can trade one of the two now for a very young, EXTREMELY promising OFer such as Upton, I see it as a move that satisfies everyone. Those who want to win now get a guy who has already been an All-Star and the RH power bat we need. Those who want to build for the future get a 24 year old threat who just so happens to already be an All-Star. I love both Kirk and Duda. Kirk has won the hearts of many due to his surprising early success and personallly, I love Duda because he represents the Trojans of USC(Fight On!). But, Upton is the type of player that is hard to say no to.
I would not do the deal at ANY time, winter meetings or not, if the deal included Wheeler, Harvey, or Flores. Those three have far too much possible impact on future success to be open to trade. Not enough people give Wilmer credit for his talent. I remember another SS whom people swept under the rug as a prospect until he became a key player. His name just so happened to be Jose Reyes. I was right about Reyes, mark my words, I WILL be right about Flores.
Of the two Duda makes the most sense, he is not a big voice anywhere let alone the lockeroom, A bit of a liability in the OF and if we get the RH Power bat in a trade you won’t be losing any of his HR power just transferring it to the RH Hitting side which means more power balance in the Lineup.
Excellent article. I’m on the fence but leaning toward getting him if the price isn’t too exorbitant. Obviously Harvey or Wheeler would be a starting point and my guess is Lucas Duda becomes expendable anyway so add him to the deal. The third component would have to be no more than a B-Level prospect.
Oh Dear Lord I have to choose between you two?
Both made valid points and I’ll only comment on one of them…
I love what Lucas Duda can do with the bat but his defense and speed covering our vast OF leaves a bit to be desired.
Lucas though can probably become a 30 HR guy while Upton is at best a 20 HR guy here as was pointed out.
But there is something else to consider in the tradeoff.
BOTH our biggest HR bats are lefty and easily thwarted by left pitching.
It Might just be worth to lose 10 HRs vs Righties to get the 20 vs Lefties we are not getting now.
In the end the price will determine my opinion on this deal. While I could live with Duda being part of the deal He would be the highest value player I would entertain giving up aside from maybe Flores.
Definitly would not give wither Wheeler or Harvey for him.
Familia might be a possibility there though. Maybe Mejia too!
But not much more as we would be taking on his salary and as jessup correctly pointed out…
There has to be SOME reason why they are so quick to trade him considering where they are!
Metsie,
Upton has already hit 30 homeruns one year and 26 another and he is only 24yrs old and still hasnt reached his potential and is 4-6 years away from his prime. I see him as a potential 30/30 guy
Yes he has but looking at the splits it tells a very different picture of what we might get from him.
But before we even go there look at the park Factors involved.
Chase Field 1.608 HR Park Factor (3rd best HR Hitter park in the MLB) compared to .975 (16th in MLB) at Citi Thats almost a 2:1 HR chance at Chase compared to here.
It also has a hit factor of 1.202 (2nd best hitter’s park in the MLB) vs our .881 (27th) (this will all be clear in Upton’s splits.
Onto Splits.
Career for Upton 60 HRs at home, 38 Away. When he leaves the bandbox his BA goes way down to .251 compared to .302 at Home as well.
He drops over .100 (.122 Actual) the secondhe steps foot outside of Chase Field!
2011 (the year he hit 31 HRs) he hit 20 at home, just 11 Away. Bat .333 at home and .246 Away.
He has some impressive numbers and skills and yes he is a WHOLE lot better in many regards than Duda especially considering the glove.
But what I see when I look at the splits is he is basically a product of thier park and will not be the same guy (because he hasn’t yet) as soon as he leaves those hitter friendly confines!
If the HR park factor being close to 2:1 is correct then we are only going to get 10-12 HRs from him at Citi and maybe retain the 11 or 12 he is getting on the road (maybe a few more because he will get more games at CBP vs the Phils.
And truth is that is probably enough on the HR front the REAL issue is what his BA might be without that hitter friendly park for 80 games that seems to drag his overall BA up to the same .270 Pagan was hitting for us.
So far in Citi he has hit .283, .339 OBP, .396 SLG with 15H, 4BB, 13K, 3D and 1 HR in 59 PA
Is that worth trading away some of the names being thrown around?
He’s been great in Arizona but I’m not sure he would be the same guy we all think he is here.
And I’m betting Arizona knows this because I can’t see any reason why they would trade him if he is as good as everyone else seems to think.
He drops over .100 (.122 Actual) the secondhe steps foot outside of Chase Field!
Sorry this should read:
He drops over .100 (.122 Actual) in SLG the second he steps foot outside of Chase Field!
Metsie I dont put too much stock into “park factors” simply due to the fact that they are misleading. It doesnt factor in the pitchers faced in these ballparks the hitters that play in this ballpark for majority of the games etc. For instance the mets players play the most games at Citi Field they dont have the best hitters they dont have power in the lineup…So when i go to check out the stats(to see whether it is hitter or pitcher friendly) for hitters at Citi Field it is largely based on the performance of Mets hitters whom play here for the majority of the year. It is not a good measuring stick is all i’m saying.
Also in his entire career Upton has played 332 games played at chase field, the next stadium in line in terms of most games played is Petco(worst park for hitters) and Coors Field(hitters park)with only 37 games. And he has been very successful at Petco and has hit for power there 8HR at Petco, 6HR at coors and he has also hit for better avg at Petco which is why I believe the stadium thing is not a fair evaluation.
And the stats you gave for Upton at Citi are one small sample size and pre rennovations to bring in the fences. May I remind you that David Wright spent 144 games in those confines and only hit 10 HR’s for a season.
As for the reason I see them wanting to trade him is because of money there 2 best pitchers are arb eligible next year(kennedy, hudson) and they have several players whose contract numbers go up drastically not to mention the new deal they gave Montero that will pay him 10 mil next year and he’s the only player they could trade and receive high level talent in return.
But you have your opinion and i have my opinion only the D’Bags know the truth
No it doesn’t take nto account the Pitchers but then again he is going to be facing the same pitchers with the exception of Our are taken away and thiers are added (a comparison we probably win on!)
You have to consider those park factors as unreliable as they might be but even without them the splits home and away tell a very clear story.
He is not that good anywhere but at Chase, a place he HATES and has accused the fans of racism even.
I only mentioned the park factors to note how I estimated the potential drop in HRs.
But the splits were the key there. If he hits to his past performance at Citi he will wind up being a .260-.270 hitter only.
He might still get 20-25 HRs yes but when you look at what they want and what we get it seems a bit dumb to trade away a guy like Harvey to get pretty much what you get from Duda with the bat and an increase in glove in the OF.
On a straight up basis he is better than Duda, but no where near a Harvey or Wheeler better than Duda.
As I said I would give them Duda, Flores and maybe even Famila (I would throw in Quintanilla or Cedeno to help thier SS issues as well)
But I don’t see the upside of Upton enough to warrant giving away what might be the next Ace and #2 who could carry this team after 2014 when Santana is gone.
Metsie: Do you wake up with cold sweats one days/nights that we agree? I know I do… haha
LOL…NO…not really…
I bet if you look back at it all you will find the only things we disagree with are importance and use of some statistics, The importance of spending or not spending Wilpon’s Money, and your predisposition to defend Sandy…
The latter being the biggest thing me and you have disagreed with as we didn’t argue this much before Sandy got here.
I totally agree with you on this point.
I think this is one of those grass is Greener type deals.
But when I look at the splits and see what a different player he is when he steps outside of Chase I have to say this sounds like it could just be another Jason Bay in the making!
We need to make sure we factor what the net return is going to be and not just assume we are going to get the same numbers he is getting in some other park.
For the sake of continuing our koombaya feel…
“with are importance and use of some statistics”
I bet we are way closer than you think.
For pitchers I value W, ERA, K/BB, Whip, Hits/IP and for relievers IR/IRS
For hitters I value Avg, Obp, Slg, Ops, HR, Rbi, SB
Not exactly far off from most yet I am somehow grouped into a sabr crowd. If looking at OPS and WHIP make me a sabr guy, then I guess guilty as charged….
Well you do subscribe to some philisophical beliefs of the Saber crowd like the importance of OBP in RS. (but no where near to the point of Xtreeme).
And I will say in regards to the Sandy stuff I am willing to give him a shot to make this club special (I have never called for him to be canned yet) I merely state that the deals he has made to date have not turned out all that great and certainly is not responsible for the place this team is now. This deadline and upcoming offseason will be a critical turning point on that front.
If we are going to keep this up though I’m going to need a lot more coffee! LOL
Go for it. No matter who we give up in this deal we are getting the best player. Even David Wright for Upton would be a steal for us. He’s only 24!!! He’s younger than Valdespin, Ike, Duda, Thole and Nieuwenhuis!!!
AGREED!
What would the haul have to be to get him? Harvey, Valdy, Duda and 1-2 lower prospects? Harvey, Familia and Murphy?
Personally, I think IF he goes somewhere it will be Pittsburgh. I think they will take the plunge and deal 1 of their top SP prospects and others and I wouldn’t blame them for doing it.
I’m not against him. I’m against the collateral damage
Sounds intriguing but if the offer was made by Arizona which demanded Wheeler and Duda I don’t think it would be wise to literally replace right fielders and throw in a potential talent like Wheeler in the mix.
But the price in return would be heavy. If the Mets addressed the D’backs infield needs in the form of Turner (sorry Justin), Kirk (sorry Captain) Flores and Wheeler (sorry Sandy LOL) I would do it in a heartbeat. But this is why I am hesitant to contemplate deals for there are too many variables to it that the average fan does not comprehend or appreciate. I don’t even know if the names I mentioned in return are even realistic from the Arizona point of view. For us, we would lose a gutsy player who is that important fifth infielder and improve the outfield. I also think we have the talent to make up for the loss of those two prospects.
Again, if there is no sense to what I just said, please excuse me. This is why I don’t usually comment on proposed trades but if was an interesting question not to pass up.
The difference between Duda and Upton is that the latter is a young, but proven 5-tool player, the type we lack and need. For what the Mets need as currently constructed, Upton fits on this team overloaded with similar players needing a speed-power-dynamic, right hand bat for middle of the order, let’s say batting #5. Duda has the power and production ceiling of 30-40 homers, 100 RBI, but can he get out of his own way to get there? I don’t know.
What I do know is that he has a confidence problem, is an emotionless player, a defensive liability, and his mechanics and pitch selection, are messed up. What happened to his level swing? And why is he dipping his torso sideways and downward when he swings? His bat is barely in the hitting zone these days, the margin of error to square things up has gotten very small, and his best position is taken at first base. I like Duda but does he have what it takes from the neck up to succeed with us for the longer term? If he’s doesn’t grow from the neck up, he, in my opinion, won’t. If we can get an established, mid-lineup young 5-tool player, we should if the price in players and dollars are right.
Where do I begin, Jessep?
1) Chemistry: ….WHAT?!?! How would Upton take away the spotlight from the likes of Johan, Dickey and Wright? Being that Upton is a childhood friend of Wright, I think he’d be welcome with open arms to the locker room, so I’m having a hard time believing that Upton would hurt and/or disrupt that. You’re making Upton out to having a Barry Bonds-type of personality when it’s the polar opposite. In fact, if it was up to David, I’d think he’d be the first one to speak up AND campaign to Sandy Alderson for Upton to be a Met.
2) Lucas Duda: The addition of the complete player Upton is by the subtraction of Duda is no skin off my back. Duda is a complete mannequin in RF as we have witnessed through the 1st half and has absolutely no business being in the OF. I believe we had a post a few months ago about who would help us than hurt us between Murph & Duda, and majority thought Duda would be more helpful because of his bat. My how things have changed. I’d think if Arizona had any interest in Duda being part of a return, they’d put him at 1st base, where he belongs. However, he’d be blocked by Goldschmidt. I see Duda as part of another deal to an AL team for relief help. Anyway you slice it, if Duda’s not dealt now, you know he won’t be here in the next couple of years with guys like Travis Taijeron on the rise.
3) Fans: I REALLY hope you know the difference between the fans in Phoenix to the ones in Flushing. I think Upton can accept the booing and heckling when he’s not doing well here. Upton HIMSELF has said he’s unhappy with his own performance, but let’s see YOU get showered with racial epithets constantly. I’d take it personally too. No surprise, considering this is ARIZONA. We’ve seen Santana booed, Wright booed, Beltran booed, Delgado booed, Bay booed and so on in the past, but I bet you they didn’t hear racist epithets showered on them. They don’t deserve him if they’re gonna be like that. For what it’s worth, I hope you know that Piazza guy we got 14 years ago didn’t get much love either before leaving Hollywood. Did that deter the Mets?
4) Why now? The owner soured on him and Stephen Drew not all that long ago in an interview, so it’s to no surprise that Upton is on the move. That, and they tried shopping him around this time last year.
5) The price: Whether you like it or not, the conversation starts with either Harvey or Wheeler. Of the two, I’d pick Harvey due to the fact that he’s more polished and at the cusp of being ML ready as it is. That would intrigue Arizona. Even with the loss of Harvey, we have a very good depth of pitching prospects in the system we can fall back on. This is not the same Mets system from a few years ago where it was a select amount of good, decent, mediocre pitchers. Think Fulmer, Tapia, Pill, Gorski, Familia, McHugh, Verrett, Mateo, DeGrom, and so on. By the way, Upton would NOT be a rental….just another big core piece for the next decade.
6) Lingering Concern: I don’t believe for one second that Upton would be a different hitter in Citi Field. Upton has enough power to hit that ANYWHERE out of Citi. I remember a game the D-Backs had at Citi the year in 2009 and Upton CLOBBERED a pitch into the second deck (the first time I saw anyone hit it up there at the time). Wright figured out Citi so why would I sweat Upton figuring out Citi?
Your worry is messing up a good thing? No. I understand your fear and to an extent SOME of the points you tried to make, but Upton would be a GREAT thing. Arguably the biggest trade and most impactful one since the Piazza trade. The man hasn’t even hit his prime and seeing some of the things he’s done, whether it’s at Chase Field or not, you need to get on something that’s a great thing for our future. His name’s Justin Upton.
hey Hitman – Sorry I was away and didn’t get a chance to respond… so here it goes
1) Chemistry – I think you misinterpret what I meant here. I know he and Wright are/were friends, I’m not talking about them getting along, I’m talking about the dynamic of the team. This roster is a very “odds against us” type team. You throw a guy in the middle who (possibly rightfully so) thinks he’s a star, you may mess up the dynamic of the team. How many of the current roster came through the minors in some phase with Lucas Duda? Wright’s chemistry cannot be questioned. But you also have guys like Thole, Ike, Tejada, Kirk, Niese, Gee, Spin etc. All young guys who likely identify themselves as close with Duda. You replace him mid-season, and yes it may be the best move for the next 5 years, but what about now?
Personally, I’d be shocked if Upton gets dealt before July 31. If he does, they are gonna go grab some ridiculous prospect package. If we’re talking winter 2012/early 2013, then this is a non-issue.
I think I addressed the Duda issue. To me, the Mets have 2 issues. LF and Bullpen. They do not “need” a RF. If you’re getting Upton now, fine… but you and I as fans have to understand the collateral damage that may be done in 2012.
3) Fans – The racial stuff was separate from the boos. Not every time is he boo’d was he being called inappropriate names. It’s 2 different stories. He’s complained about the fans PRIOR to the racial stuff. He “doesn’t care” what the fans think. And I’m sorry but if the Arizona fan base irks you that much that you come out and say that, then you’re a bad quote away from being exiled in NY. Beltran had soft skin too ya know, and he almost blew it with that curtain call (thanks Julio) because he was taking the boo’s too serious.
4) Your Why Now answer does nothing for me. Why do you trade a 24 year old who is under contract? You only do it if you’re trying to get rich off him or there is a problem. If they are trying to get rich then you’re talking either Harvey or Wheeler. There’s no sense in taking anything less as a starting point if there is no problem with him.
5) The price: I get that he’s not a rental. Trust me, the idea of him is a sweet one. I do not dislike him. I just think there is more to it. If I told you Harvey is in the rotation next year for certain, are you so quick to trade him? What is harder to find a legitimate young SP or a corner OF? The answer is the pitcher. Then you have to assume it will take MORE than Harvey or Wheeler.
6) Don’t you worry about his inconsistency? He signed a big contract in 2010, has a big year and now he’s having a lackluster year. You can say you ignore the park but that is just ignoring facts. He plays in a top 5 hitters park and he’d go to a bottom 5 hitters park. That’s a big change.
If the Mets got Upton, I wouldn’t complain. I’m just trying to show the other side of Christmas Morning. It’s not all good. You gotta consider the present AND the future. I think you’ll see Pittsburgh go large for him, I think you may also see a team like Baltimore go after him as well. Teams that will overpay to save face with their fan base.
Jut two points…
1 – We didn’t give away nearly as much for Piazza as people are talking about with Upton.
2 – That HR you remember is the only one he has hit here in 59 PA. And his splits say he is no where near the guy everyone thinks he is when he leaves the confines of Hitter friendly Chase Field.
You know this is not happening but good article. The FO should at least inquire on what it would take if he’s really available. Deals like this don’t come along all that often. I’d like to know the mindset of why the D’Backs would make him available though.
This is a touch call for me to weigh in on. Like some above, I don’t want to part with either Harvey or Wheeler. Maybe even not Flores, but it would depend on the deal.
I’ll say this if they trade Wheeler they better get a guy as good as Beltran back for him.
And if you ask me much more than that at this point.
Niether Wheeler or Harvey should be touchable here.
We have Familia, Mejia, Flores (who still has no real position) and if they want Duda then that precludes them getting any top prospect as they will instead be getting a cheap guy with more power and MLB experience they can start right now!
Duda will be hitting bombs left and right in arizona!
I’m not sure D’Backs would want Duda in return. They’ve got a good young first baseman they just brought up this year, I believe. Not sure they’d want Duda playing RF either.
Wheeler is worth a lot more now than he was at this time last year. And still not being traded of course!
as to why trading him? Really only makes sense (assuming there is no hidden problem they are trying to get rid of) if they are planning to gut to the studs and rebuild, with an eye on 3 years or so down the road, and figure the prospects back will be worth more by then than Upton alone. And of course, so they don’t have to pay him while they suck!
depends on the price really to me. anytime you can get a young, veteran but project-able high end talent 9on both sides of the ball) you do it. If you think he is really a building block, it helps with the future since he is signed thru 2015.
but you can’t gut the whole system. Familia/spin/Kirk? Seems like a no brainer. And in the right deal, Harvey could be moved.
but not wheeler/harvey/flores/+? no.
and I think this deal would have to include removing bay from the roster, and moving Duda to LF.
so, in that case, you are replacing Upton for Bay. Now that seems like an upgrade!
Upton has a ton of talent, and should be coming into his prime years. It would be nice to have them.
If this deal went down resulting in moving Bay out, it even sounds better.
LOL@SRT….I’d give up the whole farm if someone would take Bay lol
I wonder what the Ringling Brothers circus would give us for “The Man who Runs Through Solid Objects”
Get some Acrobats to entertain during the 7th Inning stretch or something!
Being able to grab Upton would be huge for this team. If ‘Zona is short on infield prospects, then shipping Valdespin or Havens could work. Valdespin has proved he could play up at the big league level. I would like to keep Flores at all costs. Den Dekker is another guy who could interest Arizona. He is having a great year so far between double and triple A and has only gotten better since his promotion. If we have to include Duda, then im still in. I know its a huge longshot at this point to expect anything significant from Bay when he gets back, but HOPEFULLY he can do something in left field. Familia is not having a great year at triple A and there has been talk about him going back down to binghamton. We could move him soon before his value really takes a huge hit. So duda, ‘spin, familia, and havens or den dekker could all go as far as im concerned. No one can touch zack wheeler and i would prefer to keep harvey as well
Chris, I think you’re lowballing Arizona here. If you’re not under any circumstances trading Flores and Wheeler, you’re not getting Upton, or any other high-end talent, for that matter.
I don’t think Arizona would do it unless they get either Wheeler or Harvey back.
Vinny, how about DUda, Familia, Mateo and Tapia? a guy on twitter suggested that… Seems reasonable…
I don’t think they would do that. Like I said, I think the Mets need to give them a TOP prospect like Wheeler or Harvey to get it done.
Look up Mateo’s numbers and read his scouting report or watch some highlights. He could end up better than both Harvey and Familia. Then again, keyword “could.” Also, it seems as if you are implying we have only two TOP prospects? Just at the halfway point of the season, we have 5 prospects rated in the TOP 150. That is not including those taken in this year’s draft, plus full-season statistics. By the end of the year, I would expect to see 3-4 more names pop up on that list and also Wheeler in the TOP 10, Harvey in the TOP 25, and Flores and maybe another cracks the TOP 50. Our minor leauge system is MUCH better than most give credit.
Oh I agree that the Mets minors is better than people think. But to trade for a player like Upton your going to have to give up some of the best prospects in your system – Which are Wheeler and Harvey – There are a number of other very good prospects in our system, but none of them are at the level of those two.
Arizona isn’t trading us Upton without them – You know why? Because other teams are going to offer them prospects in the top 25 or 30 too. The Mets offer would be easily beat by other teams if we don’t include Wheeler or Harvey.
And about Mateo, his numbers are outstanding, but you have to put them in context. He’s in low A ball, and is a year older than the average player in that league. We have to see how he does against tougher competition before we say he’s a TOP prospect.
But he’s definitely a prospect to keep an eye on – That’s for sure.
They can ask but I don’t think he is good enough to merit it.
I’m sure someone will offer one but it shouldn’t be us if thats the price.
Agreed, Vinny. I think you’re starting talks with either Harvey or Wheeler, then Flores. And then you add from there. I have no interest in trading BOTH Harvey and Wheeler, but one is fine with me.
Right, Flores would probably have to be involved as well. The AZ fan here said that they are in”dire straits” at 3rdbase, so Flores would probably be a player they would want back.
I’m willing to give up harvey in a deal if we were to get more than just upton back. For example, if we were to trade Duda, Harvey, ‘Spin, and say Havens or Den Dekker, then I think we would need more in return than just Upton. Maybe a prospect in low-A or rookie ball. I was just implying that I wouldnt like to lose Flores (our #1 hitting prospect) and Harvey (our #2 pitching prospect) in the same deal. I still would not trade Wheeler, i think that kid is going to be an absolute stud for us.
Upton is 24-yrs old. Therein lies the problem. Here in Phoenix, even during his outstanding 2011 season, the guy has been a head case, a petulant spoiled brat who’s not high on the list of clubhouse leaders.
And, you should also know that he’s not the defensive outfielder some of you guys think he is. Someone here mentioned putting him in CF? He has enough trouble playing RF. His lack of focus and hustle are things we’ve seen too much of lately. And then, when booed off the field, he tells us he doesn’t care what we fans think of him.
I keep seeing the names of all these great prospects you guys have. Right now, the Dbacks are in dire straits at 3B. We’ll also probably be in the market for a SS, since Stephen Drew is giving us nothing since his return from the DL with the broken ankle that sidelined him for 11-months. He’ a free agent at the end of the season, is now making 7.75-M, and the feeling is that he & his agent (Boras) will want between 10-15-M. a year long-term. Dbacks will most likely pass on that.
Pitching wise, two of the Dbacks current starters are rookies…..Miley (all-star) & Trevor Bauer…..due to Saunders & Hudson being on the DL.
So, you’re welcomed to Upton if you want him. Just be aware that what we get in return for Upton satisfies some of our needs as listed above.
Interesting prospective from an AZ fan here.
Some of this might go a ways towards answering why the D’Backs would even consider moving a talent like this.
.
hey desert, thanks for chiming in!
That was me that mentioned CF and I only did so because I know he played in the minors… and I only said to put him there if they felt he can play there.
Some people (mostly my biggest fans) should read what you wrote here
“He has enough trouble playing RF. His lack of focus and hustle are things we’ve seen too much of lately. And then, when booed off the field, he tells us he doesn’t care what we fans think of him.”
There are some who think the boos and the rac ial slurs are one in the same.The rac ial stuff is separate, people have boo’d him before. The rac ial stuff is not excusable but I doubt every time he gets boo’d a different group of fans is calling him named based on skin color.
To me, has has soft skin in Arizona and if you cannot handle the tough Arizona crowd, I have my doubts as to how you will handle New York City.
Thanks for your comment and sharing your perspective on this for our readers. It’s much appreciated.
1. CHEMISTRY: Yeah bringing in a high character guy like Upton whom grew up with and is also close friends with your team leader, who you consider an exceptional character guy is a bad idea
2. LUCAS DUDA: There are 30 teams in the MLB. How many of those teams would choose Duda over Upton if given the opportunity………….. “ZERO” I love Duda but over Upton c’mon dude. Duda is not even a RF and it shows day in and day out
3. FANS: Boo’s and criticism aka Boo’s and racial slurs….He stated he hears the fans boo’s,racial slurs etc and he just ignores them, he acts professionally. What would you like him to do throw them a party???
When he was 22 yrs old they(the fans) got on this kid because they wanted him to carry this team. As a 22 yr old, Imagine the fans booing David Wright at his age 22 or even when he 24 because he didnt carry this team. D.Wright had 3 straight sub par seasons and was part of underachieving team and he did not receive any of the criticism that this kid has faced so cut it out Jessep.
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/20120706chris-young-justin-upton-say-racial-slurs-from-spectators-arent-surprise.html
4.WHY NOW: This is the only point that you made that I can take seriously, but I’ll aruge the point.
For one its not like they invested tons of money into Upton, he has outplayed the contract he was offered.
His contract with the D’Backs
2010: 2.75Mil
2011: 4.5 Mil
2012: 7 Mil
Could it be that they want to trade him now and recoup prospects for him before the real money from his backloaded contract kicks in
2013: 10Mil
2014: 14.5Mil
2015 14.5Mil
Not to mention the other D’Back players who’s contracts number goes up next year
Stephen Drew goes from 7.75 to 10 mil in 2013
Chris Young 7.2M to 8.7M,
Montero 5.9M to 10 M,
Putz 4.5M to 6.5M,
Cahill 3.75m to 5.75M
Not to mention Arbitration Eligible players like Ian Kennedy,Daniel Hudson etc, etc.
So I think it is more a money thing with Arizona rather than quality of the player and he is the only player they can trade and get something special back in return.
5.THE PRICE: I take it you dont want to trade young talent away, which is fair and fine. But Matt Harvey is 23yrs old hasnt pitched a major league game yet and has just caught his stride in triple A over the last 4-5 games, Zack Wheeler 22yrs old one of the top prospects in baseball and has looked dominant in Double A and low A ball with the Mets.
Two Very Young and promising players you are absolutely right. But the only dilemma is Justin Upton is just as young “24 yrs old” proven talent in the MLB that was in the voting for MVP a couple yrs ago. Also we have no OF talent on the way no time soon we need a Right handed bat,Outfielders, and we are building for the future….Check, check and check. I definitely wouldnt give up both players for upton but I’d certainly build a package around Harvey or Familia.
6.LINGERING CONCERN: Chase field is hitter friendly to Left handed hitters. But I wont argue which park is more difficult to hit at I’ll just post some of his stats in certain ballparks
Petco (universally known as the toughest park to hit at)
35 Games 30Hits,9Doubles,8HR,16RBI,289AVG.358OBP,.548SLG(for sabr-goons)
Citi Field(Pre dimension changes)
13games 15 hits,3doubles,1HR,8RBI,.283AVG. 339OBP 396SLG
So to answer your question…I think he’d be fine here
*Certain Mets fans cringe at the thought of bringing in a player that can at the very least share the spotlight with the “Boy Wonder” or as MetsManiac puts it “Wonder Bread” David Wright…lol…
We had chemistry last year Jessep and then we TANKED in the 2nd half Upton is a perfect fit he is good for the present and the FUTUREhe is only 24yrs old he has been in the majors 6 yrs already he played his 1st mlb game at 19yrs old.
No excuse that any team wouldnt try and work out a deal for him
Leroy,Very good Post…. The CORE salute you…. That BLack, Black, Black and BLack comment still has me LMAO….
I disagree with your comment about the Mets having “no OF talent on the way soon”. We have talent, it just depends on what your definition of soon is! Here are three guys off the top of my head: Cory Vaughn (excellent All-Star bloodlines and plus raw power and speed), Cesar Puello (very fast, projectable power, good contact), and of course Brandon Nimmo (most upside in our entire system). We also have guys like Juan Lagares, who could contribute to a big league team in the future. No, it isn’t the best young OF talent in the league, we aren’t the Royals here. However, it IS solid at worst. I’m just playing devil’s advocate here, as I too would welcome a trade for Upton.
Let me remind everyone that insulting or name-calling is not tolerated here, especially to another reader who took the time to comment. I deleted the offensive comment. Please dont let it happen again..
FYI to Jessep and Xtreem, this post has topped over 5,000 Unique Users in 4 hours and over 15K hits. FOX Sports emailed me and it will be on their MLB Top Stories later this evening. Nice job!
nice! Xtreem and I are totally getting a raise in pay right?
yes your gettng a 200% increase in what you currently get paid!
200 X 0 = Yep that sounds about right!
Few more solid posts and maybe I can get a share of the Mets!
Well how much just to get Mr Met to come over and shine your shoes?
Do you really want to sit next to Bill Mahr?
I would give up Wheeler and Harvey for Upton…you never know how those guys are going to pan out and Upton is one of the games brightest talents.
Congrats on the Fox Sports Top Story announcement.
I don’t think I would do the trade. The age thing has Upton is 1 1/2 younger that is not a big thing as far as I am concerned. Depending on all the variables your obviously upgrading defensively assuming Upton takes over RF over Duda but I don’t think it is worth giving up 1 of the arms if the arms are Harvey or Familia not to mention if the Mets also have to pay most of the salary.
Offensively I still believe that Duda left-handed can put comparable numbers to what Upton would provide right-handed and having him under control could allow the Mets to use the money they would use on Upton (assuming they are on the hook for it) possibly elsewhere.
It’s tough cause there clearly is a need for a right-handed bat and getting Upton would do that and upgrade them in RF defensively but I can’t help but see Upton as the Right field version of Jason Bay.