12
2012
Hold Up On Harvey
An article by 
As you probably could have guessed, I’m not in favor of bringing Matt Harvey up right now.
I think just as with the Upton discussion, too many people are quick to jump to the easy solution. The Mets can easily send some top prospects for Upton, that doesn’t mean there’s no negative side to the deal.
The Mets can easily appease the fans and call up Harvey, but that doesn’t mean they should.
The last time the fans had such a big voice with regards to making one single move, Wally Backman was up against Terry Collins to be the next Manager.
I will tell you right off the bat, I do not “follow” the minor leagues. I like having young talent, but I go into every prospect situation assuming they will be a bust. However, the more chances you have the better chance at success you will have. Which is why I like knowing the Mets have assets.
For me, calling up Matt Harvey to take Dillon Gee’s spot is not an ideal situation right now. I do believe Harvey can be called up later on in 2012, but right now, I think his time is best used in the minor leagues.
Matt Harvey got a ringing endorsement from his Manager, but to me, Backman had no other choice.
Earlier this year, Backman said Harvey was not ready. To me, that didn’t hurt Harvey’s chances for a call up because it was never really being considered.
Backman has to protect his players just as Collins does. When your young player is being discussed as a possible call up, you cannot come out and say “he’s not ready.” You just cannot do it. You cannot be the reason why your young “ace” doesn’t get a call up.
Harvey has improved in the minors, but his 3rd pitch (changeup) needs improvement. To me, that is reason enough to keep him in the minors. You can’t have your “future” come up in a playoff race to work on his 3rd pitch.
First, he’ll come to a point where he avoids it at all costs, which will then turn himself into a 2 pitch pitcher.
Second, if he needs to work on his 3rd pitch, the minors is the place to do that.
Third, it could wreck his confidence if he comes up and isn’t “good”. He doesn’t need to catapult into the #1 role from jump street, but he needs to have success. If he’s only throwing 2 pitches with confidence, he’s bound to get lit up.
The reason why Gee and Young are solid 4/5 starters is because they can go deeper into a game. They can help preserve a bullpen and give you a chance to win every night. Most teams do not have that luxury.
You know as well as I do that if Matt Harvey was called up, he’d have a strict pitch count and innings limit. Whether you agree with that or not, it will happen.
Does that help a playoff contender? Aren’t we all raising doubts about Strasburg’s limits?
Harvey is not on the Mets 40-man roster as of now, which means in order to make this move, you must release somebody from the roster. The only way around this however, could be if Gee is placed on the 60-day DL.
For me, the Mets need to exhaust the following possibilities first before considering Matt Harvey in the big leagues.
#1 See if Miguel Batista and Jeremy Hefner can get you through the trade deadline and set you up for a potential waiver-trade.
Batista isn’t very flashy, but he can pitch. He’s not an ideal starter, but people need to realize he’d be at the bottom of the rotation. If he gets the Mets through the July 31st deadline, the price can drop significantly on starters that didn’t go at the deadline. Plus, if the Mets continue to be in the race, more teams will find themselves out of it.
#2 Check in on the price tag for Bartolo Colon, Kevin Millwood, Francisco Liriano, Bruce Chen, JA Happ, Paul Maholm, and Clayton Richard.
The Mets are in a unique situation. A lot of buyers may look for a bigger splash for their rotation. The Mets do not need that. They need a 4/5 starter, and while some of these guys may be more expensive than others it certainly doesn’t hurt to ask.
Do What Is Best For Harvey AND The Mets.
It’s easy for us to all say we want to see Harvey because a spot is open, but we need to relax and realize it may not be the best thing for the current roster, the bullpen and Harvey himself.
I’m not worried about his options, or anything like that. I’m worried that the Mets would throw a kid who isn’t ready, into a playoff race and potentially shatter his chances at becoming the pitcher we hope he can be.
I hope he does get called up this year, but I hope it’s less because of an emergency and more because the Mets are comfortable in knowing he is ready to contribute to the team.
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
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My biggest worry on bringing up Harvey right now is the innings limit. Say he does prove himself and pitches good in the next month or so, if called up now. What do we do in Sep? Keep throwing him out there?
Also, not sure why Batista is next in line for SP depth. Looking at numbers, isn’t Hefner better than Batista?
I think we almost have to bring someone in for SP depth for the rest of this season.
Almost forgot….Hefner hit a HR against the Phils in May when he beat them?
We could use another power hitter in the line-up
Miggy has started 4 games and given up 8 ER for a 4.00 ERA. Hefner has started 3 games, given up 12 ER, for a 6.89 ERA. Pretty easy decision there.
I know Hefner’s ERA looks ugly. But his peripheral stats are not all that bad for a 5th starter.
It’s probably six one, half dozen of the other. And I won’t be surprised if Batista gets shelled, they do call up Hefner to see what he can do and put Batista back in the BP. That is, if they don’t decide to just call up Harvey.
Hefner does get a bad rep based on his overall #s.
He had 3 starts, 1 he got shelled in. Then
Wash 6IP 3ER
PHI 6IP 3ER
Plus 5IP Tor 2ER in relief.
If I remember right, wasn’t he pitching well one game, then got hit with a rain delay and got hit hard when he tried to continue the game?
Yep…
He gave up 6 runs All of them after the rain delay.
Most of his ERA is due to that one game where he pitched 3.2 innings and gave up all those runs.
He’s still a 5.0+ ERA pitcher on the whole, But with regular rotation routine and playing time as a starter he would probably get that ERA down to 4 or under.
Consistency of routine and schedule are very important to a starter keeping the feel on his breaking balls which a guy like Hefner lives on!
I don’t believe Backman would publicly say Harvey can help the Mets and privately say otherwise. It just doesn’t make sense for him to do such a thing.
Having said that what Backman did say was “He’ll take a lump or two if they call him up, …But his fastball command is much improved. He can help them.”
The question is has he gone as far as he can go at AAA or is he ready for his next stage of development at the major league level?
Seems like his fastball and curveball are Major League quality based on Backman’s quote. “…he’s gotten better at getting the ball down in the zone, hitting his spots with the fastball instead of just overpowering guys at this level. His curveball is major-league quality and he’s getting better with his changeup.”
He is getting better with his changeup but how far along is it?
Not having seen Harvey pitch all I have are the results of what he has done and what his coaches say on the record. Right now according to Backman they would not be doing a disservice to Harvey if they called him up. Now if all the coaches collectively agree with Backman is another thing.
We should get a better idea soon enough
I’m not saying he’d do that.
I am saying he is supposed to be Harvey’s biggest advocate. When there is REAL talk about calling him up, Wally’s not going to say “he’s not ready.” Because then he’d be the sole reason why his own player doesn’t get the call up that he likely is dying to get.
That’s all I am saying. He’s not the guy I wanna hear from in a spot like this because he’s supposed to advocate for him.
I still come back to Backman in my opinion would not say something that he felt would hurt Harvey as a pitcher. So I don’t believe he would say something just cause he is supposed to be his advocate even if he believed it would hurt him.
What we don’t know is how the rest of the coaches feel about Harvey. If collectively they all share Backman’s opinion one I would think have to heavily consider that.
really, the question becomes:
does he have anything left on his checklist to work on /fine tune? If no, call him up.
If yes, is he really close or miles away? If miles away, leave him in minors. if close, the last part of the question becomes, can he make the last adjustments just as well in the majors (and keep in mind, there will be much better tests up there, and he will have to face it at some point).
Oh, forgot the other part. After doing the above analysis (and that pretty much is the survive/thrive/get destroyed debate), do you expect him to have better results than the other options (Hefner or batista)?
If Gee was only going to be out for 2 or 3 weeks i would agree. But I think bringing Harvey up for the rest of the season is the best option right now. The mets have a bad habit of bringing players up way too soon, or waiting too long. I think this is a good time to bring the kid up. He will help the team and there aren’t many expectations of him at this point, especially as a #5 starter.
#2 Check in on the price tag for Bartolo Colon, Kevin Millwood, Francisco Liriano, Bruce Chen, JA Happ, Paul Maholm, and Clayton Richard.
Are any of these guys better than giving our own a shot and some experience gained for next year?
Well there are a couple of holes in your argument…
First off his third pitch is a changeup. And he would be pitching with a guy who happens to have a pretty damn good one in Santana. This is just the kind of situation where Santana’s leadership is a plus and adds more to the team than just his performance! Very likely he gets through to Harvey where the MiL coaches do not.
Second, Waiting for a Waiver Wire deal will be way too late. Teams won’t start waiving guys right after the deadline, by the time that deal is made it will be way too late and we will have used Bautista for 5-8 starts which could be bad to do if we are in a race. Even if a team put a guy through Waivers on August 1st, By the time the deal to get him was done it would be late August and really not worth it because in a week you would move to a 40 man anyway!
While I understand your hesitance to bring a kid up in the Playoff race the truth of the matter is if we are TRULY in one this year then waiting to bring him up next year really isn’t any different as we are likely to be playoff players next year as well!
I was firmly in the camp of leaving Harvey down for the entire year but he has done so well vs the Minors you have to wonder if there is anything else he can learn?
Maybe he is not ready and maybe he loses enough to cost us a playoff this year….
Well then you got bigger issues than just what he cost you this year don’t you? Doesn’t it show you that maybe you need to get another starter for next year because the Kid needs more experience?
Young is gone in November no matter what. That means either Harvey or a trade is needed for next year. And there is no better time to find out which than now!
If Harvey could cost us a Playoff appearance this year then we have bigger issues than him and this year.
So I have given in from my previous stance on bringing him up. If we were not in a playoff race I would leave him down since there would be no benefit to it, but now that we are what better way to see how he can handle pressure for the next three years where he will be a key piece in the rotation and if our GM makes the right moves on the rest of the roster should put us in the running for another 4-5 years at minimum of playoff runs!