Bullpen Is Better Than You Think

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• NJstuckinTX July 16, 2012 at 3:15 pm

  “Hardly the worst” is generally something that no one strives to be. Even if we all agreed and said, OK, this team’s BP is not the overall worst in the league, it doesn’t change the fact it ain’t good.
  • jessep July 16, 2012 at 3:21 pm

    I don’t disagree here. My point is there are many who hang their hats on the idea that the Mets rebuilt a bullpen and that work = worst in baseball.

    The main additions, Francisco, Ramirez, Rauch, plus Byrdak are not the worst in baseball. As a group if you add Parnell, they have performed better than 6 other NL squads.

    It ain’t pretty, but it ain’t close to the worst.
• K Maxx July 16, 2012 at 3:28 pm

  The reason you use the numbers in their totality is so that you cant add or subtract some of them to manipulate an argument or support an agenda.

  For example you used appearances instead of innings. That allowed you to use Igarashi (4.66) in your top 5 instead of Acosta (3.45). That makes you argument seem like the bullpen has improved when in fact it has not.

  Last year the bullpen ERA was 4.33, this year it’s 4.90. You can spin it anyway you like, but this bullpen is significantly worse.

  Did you really need this slanted statistical analysis to tell you that. Didn’t you watch the last ten games? Wasn’t that enough evidence for you?
  • jessep July 16, 2012 at 3:33 pm

    thanks for reading.

    Actually I did not use Igarashi for 2011 because I missed that he had 1 more outing. I used Beato, Parnell, Izzy, Byrdak, Acosta for 2011.

    My point again is not to make roses out of a below average situation. My point is that people come here every day and point specifically to Francisco, Rauch and Ramirez and say “worst bullpen in baseball.”

    The statement is false.

    If you want the story to be about the guys we see every day (including those 3 SA brought here) then compare what they mean to the Mets for other teams.

    Don’t use E. Ramirez’s ERA to prove Francisco, Rauch, Ramirez are no good. Use their #s.

    If you take the Mets real bullpen, the guys they rely on every day… they have performed better than 6 other NL teams. True or not?

    What the Mets bullpen lacks is a lights out middle reliever, consistency from their 5 go to guys and clearly depth in the minor leagues to fill in roles as necessary due to injury

    True or not?
    • Metsie July 16, 2012 at 5:17 pm

      What the mets need is a new GM who could pick better when he focuses on something…
      Even REandom Pot Luck could have made better selections that what we got, You almost have to WORK to fail so miserably!
      • Donal July 16, 2012 at 5:19 pm

        Ya, just look at the all the wild success of free agent relievers this year. Especially closers.
        • Vinny B July 16, 2012 at 5:30 pm

          There has been a number of succesful FA closer signings. And just to be clear, I’m not saying we should have signed them all. Just pointing out that there were succesful FA closer signings.

          Fernando Rodney: 0.91 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 26 saves(leads league). An all star too.

          Joe Nathan: 2.17 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 19 Saves. Also an All star.

          Jonathan Broxton: 2.14 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 22 saves.

          Matt Capps: 3.29 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 14 saves.
          • Stick July 16, 2012 at 10:15 pm

            well, that list shows a couple of things. RPs (closers) are a crap shoot. And Franky compares favorably.

            Not sure if you care for it, but ERA+ is a reasonable snapshot stat if you want to compare players in a year.

            and in 2011, out of those 4 guys + Francisco, Franky had the highest ERA plus in 2011 (at 122). By far, and he was the only one even above 100. And that had an assortment of poor recent years, and major injuries and missed time.

            So they were all a crap shoot, and had very real injury potential. And they weren’t exactly overwhelmed with suitors wanting to give them big $, LT contracts.

            Part of the Met signings had to be looking for guys with a reasonable expectation of not having a season ending injury early (say, like Lidge).

            And Rodney? talk about a fluke. he has been lousy for years. ERA of 4.5, WHIP over 1.5. If Sandy had signed him, people would have been screaming bloody murder. His #s this year at 35 are so far out of anything done in his career, he is in damned yankees territory.
            • Vinny B July 16, 2012 at 10:44 pm

              “RPs (closers) are a crap shoot”

              My counter to that is, if they are a “crap shoot” then why invest so much in the bullpen? Why go out and spend 20M and downgrade in CF for something that’s a crap shoot? They also ignored other needs, like a RH catcher because they invested so much into the pen.

              So, if your going to tell me relief pitchers are unpredictable, how can you defend spending that much money on them, and downgrading in CF for them, AND ignoring other areas of the team for something that’s so unpredictable?

              So, to me, that excuse doesn’t make what they did any seem any better.
              • Metsie July 16, 2012 at 11:58 pm

                My counter to the crap shoot defense is much more direct…

                A GM who knows what he is doing would make sure not to shoot at crap!
                Especially when it was his main focus going into the FA season!

                Why not go all the way and say RFers and Starting Pitcvhers are a crap shoot as well?
                Ther are almost as many failed signings with those guys as in the Pen!

                Maybe Omar should not be blamed for Bay and perez since your know everything in FA is just a crap shoot!

                ORRRRRR…
                Lets get rid of the guy who can’t tell Duck Crap from a Duck!
                • Stick July 17, 2012 at 12:03 am

                  well, every one on Vinnys list was crap the last last year or 2, so why would you want to shoot at them?
                  • Metsie July 17, 2012 at 12:07 am

                    And your basing thier crapness on what exactly?
                  • stick July 17, 2012 at 9:06 am

                    stats, baby stats. Results.

                    and in 2011, out of those 4 guys + Francisco, Franky had the highest ERA plus in 2011 (at 122). By far, and he was the only one even above 100. And that had an assortment of poor recent years, and major injuries and missed time.
                  • Vinny B July 17, 2012 at 9:55 am

                    I didn’t say those were the pitchers we should have signed. My point was that there were successful FA closer signings..

                    whether it would have been a good idea to sign them or not is a different story.
                • jessep July 17, 2012 at 10:00 am

                  For the record, I do not think Omar should get any blame for Jason Bay.
                  • Metsie July 17, 2012 at 1:07 pm

                    Fair enough (I agree with that) but you do admit that we would be the minority opinion around here on that sentiment right?
            • Stick July 16, 2012 at 11:48 pm

              first of all, they did not spend 20mill this year. You can’t add all the years of a multi year deal in 1 year.

              so that was about 13 mill I believe, for the 4 guys making more than about minimum wage. So they did not spend a whole lot.

              and I am not saying not to bother to sign anyone (though some teams do go with the theory to use all short service and cheap FA types). Just that most veteran RPs (the kind you get to avoid having nothing but elvin and acosta types) are erratic. One of the reasons to get 3 guys to spread the load, instead of investing everything in one guy.

              that, and even the “top” guys can crap out quick. Hell, of the 3 “big name” closers last off season (that got the big money) 1 blew out his arm in ST, 1 has been horrid, and the one that got a huge contract has actually been good. So not real good return there!

              so, spending huge $ buys you better talent, that may or may not work. And spending more modest amounts gets you guys with some question marks, that could be boom or bust.

              Of course you can just say screw it, and sign a bunch of injury guys, retreads, and MiL FAs, bring them all to ST with your MiL guys, and pick the best 7 and roll with it. Let whoever grabs the job be the closer.
              • jessep July 17, 2012 at 9:53 am

                Correct. If you take the Mets bullpen

                Francisco, Rauch, Ramirez, Parnell, Byrdak, Beato, Batista. The group I think we can all safely say is the “core” bullpen. Beato would have been in there on opening day had it not been for injury.

                Take that group, their total salary in 2012 was $14.391 million.

                KRod would have made $17.5mil had they not dealt him.

                That’s all you need to know.
                • Metsie July 17, 2012 at 12:48 pm

                  So basically you traded performance on the field to get Wilpon Steak Dinner!

                  Really thats ALL you need to know about that theory of GMing.

                  We didn’t get a 4 game handicap for being cheaper or spending less than the rest of the MLB
                  We did not spend anything we saved on someone to make up for the loss on the field.

                  All that thinking accomplished was better balance in the Wilpon Checkbook and Debit Account!

                  You keep thinking it’s smart for a baseball team to be frugal and spend less but the truth is all your really accomplishing is putting a limit on your ability to buld that no one else is placing on themselves putting you at a disadvantage to everyone else!
              • Vinny B July 17, 2012 at 10:03 am

                But you still didn’t address why it made sense to downgrade in center field for a crap shoot relief pitcher…

                If bullpens truly are a crap shoot, our GM didn’t treat it like one. Not only did we spend almost all of our money on it, we downgraded in CF, and ignored other needs, like a RH catcher because we invested everything into the bullpen.
                • jessep July 17, 2012 at 10:11 am

                  We unfortunately are not privileged to know what the Mets thought. When Torres was acquired the sentiment here was that he was a temporary filler for CF. Which I have to assume meant many people had faith in a kid like Kirk. I don’t know what the Mets thought of Kirk or even Spin.

                  In terms of CF, a year ago I said I wanted Melky. Now, I am not for a second going to suggest I had any idea Melky would do what he’s done this year.

                  My point was I thought with the OF we had we needed a more defensive minded CF and could sacrifice offense a bit.

                  Now Torres to me has been average at best in CF. I don’t think anybody would tell you he’s played up to par.

                  Which is why a month ago I said I do not expect him to be on the roster on Game 162 for the Mets.

                  We also do not know Pagan’s presence in the clubhouse. To me, he always seemed uninterested and perhaps that played into things a bit?

                  I’m not going to sit here and say for 1 second that I have wished we had Pagan this year. I think what they did was sold him before his stock plummeted. His 2012 season is still a decline from his 2009 and 2010.

                  His pricetag will only drop.
                  • XtreemIcon July 17, 2012 at 10:27 am

                    Not only was Torres a filler, but he wouldn’t have even been involved in the trade had Kirk not gotten hurt last year. And this idea that they “downgraded” is silly at best. Torres had every scout drooling over his defense his entire career, and everyone knows Pagan is a terrible fielder. Torres hasn’t played up to par like you said, but it’s nothing more than hindsight for people to post on here that it was a downgrade, because at the time it was a very significant upgrade. Torres is still playing a much, much better CF than Pagan.

                    Offensively, Torres has a better OBP than Pagan this season, and don’t forget you’re comparing two top of the order hitters. Pagan has more power and is a marginally better hitter because he offers some pop, but he’s not good at all, and the defensive upgrade that Torres was supposed to be for a couple of months far more than makes up for Pagan’s marginally better offense. Don’t forget, Torres has already gotten more PT than he was expected to because of all of Bay’s injuries and the crazy platoon splits in the outfield. By the way, Pagan creates a run (RS+RBI-HR) every 5.2 plate appearances. Torres creates a run every 5.3 PAs. What a downgrade.
                  • Vinny B July 17, 2012 at 10:51 am

                    Significant upgrade? Come on. And how am I using hindsight anyway? Torres hit .220 last year, and .220 this year.

                    Angel Pagan 5HR, 34RB,I 16SB(2CS), .286BA, .331OB%, .407SLUG%(84 games)

                    Andres Torres, 1HR, 23RBI, 9SB(4CS), .223, BA, .336OB%, 307SLUG(64Games.

                    Torres is hitting like Luis Castillo at the end of his career – You think that’s better than Pagan?The only thing Torres is better is in OB%, but it’s so close, it’s basically a tie. Pagan is the better average hitter, better power hitter, and better base runner…and that’s not just this year, but for their careers as well.

                    And as for defense? Sure Pagan doesn’t play great defense, but Torres hasn’t been anything special in CF either.

                    I don’t see how it’s even debatable – The Mets downgraded in CF. The Mets would be better off with Pagan instead of Torres, and I think most people would agree.
                  • XtreemIcon July 17, 2012 at 10:58 am

                    That’s because you’re using batting average, a stat that only tells half the story and makes hitters look better than they really are. You have a two players, both fourth outfielders at a defensive position who would hit at the top of the order when they play. One is a very good outfielder with a better OBP than the other, a terrible outfielder, who happens to have hit a whopping four more home runs, and he’s supposed to have more pop.

                    They produce nearly the exact same number of runs per PA when you account for playing time, but one is supposed to be a better hitter. At least the guy who’s supposed to play a better CF is at least playing a better CF.
                  • XtreemIcon July 17, 2012 at 11:03 am

                    And I said significant upgrade defensively. Don’t twist the words. I always admitted Pagan was the better hitter, but only marginally. The difference defensively is far more than marginal, even with Torres not playing as well as he has in the past.
                  • Vinny B July 17, 2012 at 11:05 am

                    Actually Pagan has hit 5th more than he’s hit lead off. And a better OBP? it’s only .005 difference. That’s nothing. And for the last three years, their OBP is exactly the same(.332).

                    And what about base running? Torres has been caught stealing 4 times and only has 9 steals. Pagan has 16 steals, and has been only caught twice.
                  • Vinny B July 17, 2012 at 11:08 am

                    I didn’t twist words. If that’s what you meant, then you didn’t make it clear.

                    “Torres hasn’t played up to par like you said, but it’s nothing more than hindsight for people to post on here that it was a downgrade, because at the time it was a very significant upgrade.”

                    To me, that sounded like you said overall Torres is a significant upgrade. If you were just talking about defense, then that’s your fault for not explaining it correctly, not mine.
                  • XtreemIcon July 17, 2012 at 11:14 am

                    Base stealing is just a part of base running. I guess you don’t remember all the base running mistakes Pagan made while here? You probably don’t get to watch much Giants games, but it’s no different there. That said, yes, Torres hasn’t been as good as his past. Maybe the hammy has something to do with it.

                    But don’t forget, I’m not defending how Torres has played. I’m defending the decision at the time and trying to counteract all the hindsight GMs out there. Here are two things you said and one thing I’ve inferred in the last ten minutes or so:

                    I’ve inferred you agree Torres is the better fielder. I know Torres isn’t a gold glover, but I know you know he’s far better than Pagan. Couple that with the fact that you said Torres has a better OBP this year and they have the same for their career.

                    You also said the Mets downgraded. Doesn’t add up.
                  • XtreemIcon July 17, 2012 at 11:16 am

                    Don’t be cute and take quote things out of context. Go ahead an post that same thing, only this time, add the sentence directly before what you decided to quote.
                  • XtreemIcon July 17, 2012 at 11:17 am

                    And the sentence directly after, for that matter.
                  • Vinny B July 17, 2012 at 11:30 am

                    And what about the mental mistakes Torres is making? They both have that problem.

                    I do think Torres is better on defense than Pagan, but not by much. And like I keep saying about the OBP is pretty much the same – you think a .331 and a .336 OBP is that much different? And as I pointed out, their OBP is exactly the same for the last three years.

                    Maybe you don’t watch the Giants either because Pagan hasn’t been hitting at the top of the order. He’s been hitting 5th or 6th. So, if you want a big differnce between their numbers, look at Pagans average and slugging compared to Torres – Big differnece. That, and Pagan’s better ability to steal, makes up the differnce between the defense.
                  • Vinny B July 17, 2012 at 11:36 am

                    You didn’t make it clear that you were talking only about defense in that sentence. So, it’s not my fault I misunderstood what you said.
                  • XtreemIcon July 17, 2012 at 11:38 am

                    I watch the Giants a lot. I watch every team a lot. Just because the Giants hit him 5th doesn’t A) make him a 5th hitter or B) mean that’s where he’d hit on the Mets. The defense is a very significant upgrade. It’s clear to anyone who watches both players. Torres is obviously not Mickey Mantle and no one is pegging him to be. But he’s a better fourth outfielder at a defensive position then Pagan is. Batting average means very little and the slugging/power was already addressed.

                    All you need to know is that Torres had the reputation from the scouts as being a solid defensive player with good base running skills and great clubhouse presence, and Pagan had the scouts reputation for being a terrible defender, bad baserunner and not the most likable guy. We’re talking about a 4th outfielder here, and you’re talking about batting average and ignoring all the primary traits a 4th outfielder should have.
                  • Vinny B July 17, 2012 at 11:45 am

                    I’m not only talking about average. I’m talking about power, baserunning, AND average. All of which Pagan is better than Torres. The only thing Torres is better than Pagan is defense, but I think in my opinion, it’s not that big of a difference.
                  • XtreemIcon July 17, 2012 at 11:50 am

                    That’s fine. But I think you’re basing your opinion on what you’ve seen this season, and the numbers you’re citing back that up. The trade was based on performances prior to 2012. If Torres had been playing up to par, I think you’d have a different opinion. That’s all.
                  • Vinny B July 17, 2012 at 12:11 pm

                    Torres’ numbers are pretty much the same as last year……..
                  • Metsie July 17, 2012 at 1:23 pm

                    “Offensively, Torres has a better OBP than Pagan this season”

                    Oh that .005 plus in OBP is enough to offset the .063 points in BA? Really?
                    Then what does Pagan’s extra .100 in SLG say to you?

                    Torres is an Upgrade? Thats really Laughable!
                  • Metsie July 17, 2012 at 1:37 pm

                    “a stat that only tells half the story and makes hitters look better than they really are”
                    You should start writing for Comedy central with punchlines like that!

                    40 Hits vs 29 Walks and the BA is only half the story?
                    Pagan has 94 Hs and 24 Walks is the OBP half his story too?

                    OBP only accounts for 19% of the good Pagan brings…

                    It’s the OBP that makes the player seem better than he really is!
                    Because you credit him with things the Pitcher gave him not things he accomplished without any help!
                  • Metsie July 17, 2012 at 1:40 pm

                    “significant upgrade defensively”
                    .984 vs .977?
                    A difference of .007 is significant?

                    Significant enough to usurp all that extra batting Pagan gives you?

                    Thats thinner than a whisker from a statistical perspective!
                    Your talking about the difference of ONE play in an entire season!
                • trs86 July 17, 2012 at 10:19 am

                  Thing is out of all of those guys Ramirez looked to be the most sure thing. He’s had an ERA over 4.00 once since 2008. It’s under this year as well, however of course the concerning thing is the WHIP which is by far his highest since 2007. Keep in mind that since his return from the DL he has a .161 .278 .161 .439 slash and has not given up an earned run in 8.2 innings.
                  • Vinny B July 17, 2012 at 10:54 am

                    But if you think relief pitchers are a crap shoot, then you can’t come here and tell me Ramirez is a “sure thing”.

                    You can’t have it both ways, you can’t say they are unreliable, then say, one of the pitchers he traded for is reliable.
                  • Metsie July 17, 2012 at 1:15 pm

                    Keep in mid since his return from the DL that he has only gotten into 6 games (8.2 Innings) out of the 16 we have played….

                    And every one of those games was a mop up game where he could do no damage and there was no real pressure!

                    All of them were losses with the exception of the chicago game where we had a 17-1 lead that day.

                    He’s being used differently, only in Mop Up roles or to face one or two batters before he gets yanked. WHich is why he is starting to look more like what everyone thought we were getting because we are using him only as a mop up or RH Specialist!
      • Hoegy July 17, 2012 at 9:41 am

        I don’t know about blind loyalists to SA. What choice does a Met fan have? Live with the decisions or lament on line until game time. If there is a benefit to the opportunity to dialogue here on this blog it should be about the future. There can be plenty of sentiment, one way or the other, about the current FO and the cast of players. What can we do to make this season continue to be interesting? We are not going to the World Serious. When SA put together the bullpen I do not think it was in his thoughts about what will the fans buy. I was encouraged by the moves made relative to last years pen. I did not see much negative press about it. I was saddened at the loss of Pagan more so than who we acquired.

        If the prospects pan out, we have some talent on the way up, and the youth movement continues to gel our seasons will get progressively better. I think SA has winning in mind and money. Not an easy balancing act with more variables than any one of us fans blogging here could imagine.

        I like to think that perhaps all the talk of needing a right handed bat may finally inspire Bay to get over it and play baseball like it means more than a schoolyard stick ball game? We need him to produce as he once was capable and a strong middle reliever to support the starters. What ever the stats may be for the bullpen they will improve when they are not needed to “keep us in a game”. There are glimmers of hope for all except Batista he needs to be cut so he can stretch out on a beach somewhere.

        I have been a fan since I was on my Dad’s knee at the Polo grounds. I don’t base my passion on the GM ever. There is no point. I live and die with the team on the field. This year is a perfect example of the woes of being a Met fan. The series in Atlanta epitomizes that fact. We could have easily won two out of three games. To be swept in Atlanta coming out of the All Star game is like having the sails fall off the boat.

        Tonight we go into Washington looking for a Niese performance, a Bay overture, and a much needed win. There is always the potential of the season hopes ending not like it’s never happened before and at times with the utmost heartbreaking effect (2006 et al.) This season has exceeded expectations to date. Terry Collins is a good manager leaning towards great.
        There are no clubhouse issues, the team relies on each other, and they are fun to watch and gut wrenching.

        LGM!
• Vinny B July 16, 2012 at 3:28 pm

  My point was the Mets bullpen HAS been the worst in the leagues….and I’m right.

  Alderson tried to fix the bullpen and he failed. There’s no way you can argue that……You can say that in the 2nd half we could see better results, but even if there is improvement, the Mets still are going to be one of the worst. Look how far away the 3rd worst pen is – Almost a half a run lower. The Mets have a lot of catching up to do to even catch the THIRD worst bullpen.

  Now, if you only want to talk about the players that Alderson brought in, which are Francsico , Rauch, Ramirez, Batista, Carrasco, and Byrdack. They have a 4.14 ERA, and a 1.44 WHIP – That’s not good at all. Especially since they cost 20M or so, and a useful player in Angel Pagan.

  If that’s not a terrible job, I don’t know what is.

  And what about his decision to keep going with Acosta even though he was getting killed every time out? Or what about not going with a 2nd lefty for the entire 1st half? Or what about keeping Carrasco on the 40 man instead of protecting Rhiner Cruz?
  • Barry July 16, 2012 at 4:18 pm

    Very well said, Vinny.

    I mean, Alderson knew it was imperative to improve the pen before the season, and that’s what he set out to do. And no one can say he was hamstrung financially, because as you pointed out, he spent around $20M.

    He let Chris Capuano walk because he didn’t want to give him two years, so the Dodgers scooped him up for two years. It really bothered me when they let him go, I knew it would come back to bite them. At the very least, even if they didn’t need Capuano to start, he would have been terrific in relief.

    Rating Alderson: The only positive (i.e., getting Zack Wheeler for Beltran) is more a function of how desperate the other team (SF) is. You always ask for the moon and see if they blink. So I wouldn’t credit him with a whole lot, for that “gift” from the Giants.

    I like Alderson, and am willing to give him more time, but let’s be honest, there is only one way to characterize his work so far: Epic Fail.
  • Joey D. July 16, 2012 at 9:00 pm

    Well said, Vinny.

    This is why I contend that statistical analysis can never be compared to the power of observation and reasoning. Yes, any case could be made using mathematical calculations but it cannot change we see with our own eyes.

    Don’t care if we are number 29, 28 or 27 – that would not change the fact that have a pathetic and unreliable bullpen that is going to place extra pressure on the starters and the hitters to do more to compensate for it. Any other argument is of little consequence and offers no consolation.
• Barry July 16, 2012 at 4:22 pm

  I forgot to add: The Pagan trade. Ugh
• stick July 16, 2012 at 5:00 pm

  good piece. I had this conversation recently with Mr. NJ, and at that point (after he had been released), Acosta alone had given up ~25% of the total runs by the pen. that is hard to do!

  and what people tend to miss is the HAS BEEN part. No, of course you can’t deduct the runs that Acosta and DJ gave up. But, they are fixed in history. they have no relevance to going forward.

  and now, the only thing that matters is what the guys on hand are going to do. And from that standpoint, Jessep is right, the only thing that counts is the guys that are here. I know that DJ is not going to be giving up any more runs!

  You can look at this another way. Based on BA, the Mets have the worst 1B in MLB. But, Ike has been much better in the last month of so. Given that, should you assume he is going to spend the rest of the year hitting .207, or actually hit better than that?
• JimmyH July 16, 2012 at 5:04 pm

  We all know anyone can make stats be percieved any way you want in order to tell a story, but at the end of the day the facts are the Mets entire BP accounts for over half of the teams losses (22) and the five pitchers you named account for more than half of those losses (13) and only a third of the wins (13) attributed to the entire BP, so using only ERA is stat manipulation and doesn’t tell a half story of the effectiveness of a ballpen, and infact when compared with other stats says more about the defense lapses than anything else, try looking at blown saves or things of that nature, then you’d be getting closer to the results that matter. Now me using losses/wins atributed the BP vs ERA also doesn’t tell a complete story either since I did not compare it against the rest of the league but wins and losses out of the BP is closer to the end result that most care about vs just ERA.
• Metsie July 16, 2012 at 5:15 pm

  Here my friends is the Columbia University courseware for Stat Manipulation!

  VideoTape of this lesson is available in te Student Library and Netflix!

  Really Jessup….Too Too Much!

  This argument is thinner than a Quantum String!

  Sure the Bullpen is probably better than I think it is…I think it SUCKS and is useless!
  No bullpen could actually be that bad but it isn’t hard to be much better either!
  • jessep July 16, 2012 at 5:52 pm

    Metsie would you agree that some point specific to rauch francisco and ramirez and then say the mets have worst pen?

    The point is much of what makes the pen the worst is based on players who were fill ins or have been cut
    • Metsie July 16, 2012 at 6:04 pm

      What makes it bad was having to use the fill ins because the guys we bought sucked!
      It was the lack of success of the guys we had brought in to fix the pen that gave guys like Acosta the rope they were given.

      If we had fixed the pen properly there would have been no need to go to those Fill Ins at all.
      • Vinny B July 16, 2012 at 6:12 pm

        Right, maybe if Carrasco was decent, or if we would would have signed a better option, we wouldn’t have had all these “fill ins” pitch so many innings.
        • jessep July 16, 2012 at 6:59 pm

          On jult 16th do we rank the mets based on who is on the team or not on the team? Are the mets lookin to replace carresco?

          Take mets top 5 appearances compare to phillie and miami. Who has a better performing pen?
          • Metsie July 16, 2012 at 7:19 pm

            Did you get rid of all the other team’s Fill Ins whewn you made your comparison as well?
            I doubt it!

            It’s very easy to find some excuse to get rid of the worst on your side but leave all the worst on the comparisons hoping the difference is enough to make the point you made.

            Truth is the entire BullPen is full of nothing but Fill Ins!

            Bandaids that didn’t cover the original woulnd and may have created a few of thier own.
            • jessep July 16, 2012 at 7:36 pm

              “Did you get rid of all the other team’s Fill Ins whewn you made your comparison as well?
              I doubt it!”

              Actually I did. Did you read the post or just see the subject and comment on it.

              Take the Phillies, Marlins, Cubs, Cards, Brewers, Astros top 5 relievers by appearance and take their ERA.

              Compare it to the Mets, and the Mets have a better ERA.

              You wouldn’t judge the Mets lineup based on Rottino’s AB or Zach Lutz’s would you? Of course not. So why do we judge the entire bullpen based on guys who either aren’t here or were temporary fillers?
              • Metsie July 16, 2012 at 8:07 pm

                So you went by appearance where some of thier better pitchers may have been part of that removal you made as well?

                Really doesn’t matter how you manipulated the numbers. The bottom line is here or not our bullpen is the worst in the MLB. And whose job is it to see that doesn’t happen?

                It might be forgivable if this was the first year he has tried to improve the pen but we are in year two now and it’s worse now than when he originally fixed it.

                Comes back to this…
                We traded away a closer in the name of Money and if we didn’t we might actually have a much better pen right now even WITH your manipulative attempts to make what we have look better!

                SO what if Wilpon would have to have Mac & Cheese or Tuna Salad for dinner twice a week?
              • Joey D. July 16, 2012 at 9:28 pm

                Hi Jessep,

                Including teams like the Cubs, Astros, Phillies or Marlins doesn’t help make a case for your argument. Those four have better save percentages than we do – despite all playing below .500. In fact the combined winning percentage for the Cubs and Astros is .390.

                Would you rather have their won-loss records than the one we have, despite the recent 1-5 slump?
          • Vinny B July 16, 2012 at 7:44 pm

            When I was making that point, I was counting the Mets bullpen in total, not just going forward. The numbers of the guys who did pitch for us still count because the games they blew are going to count against us in the standings, correct?

            You can’t just wipe it all away and pretend it never happened. Alderson decided to keep going with Acosta for a long time, even though he was terrible. He gave Carrasco another chance(Which caused Cruz to be taken in the rule 5). He let Miguel Batista pitched important innings out of the pen – So shouldn’t all those decisions Alderson made be counted against the pen?

            And my main point wasn’t that the Mets had the worst bullpen, my main point was that Alderson tired to fix the bullpen, and failed. It’s been awful anyway you want to look at it. Especially since they spent around 20M, and gave up our starting CF to try and fix it – So whether the bullpen is the worst or just one of the worst doesn’t change my main point – Alderson still failed.
        • Metsie July 16, 2012 at 7:20 pm

          We have an entire pen full of Fill Ins.

          and the only thing they fill in are the bases!
• Lifelongmetsfan July 16, 2012 at 6:55 pm

  Ok. Big 3 game series starting tonight! So that means,
  Rony Cedeno starts at 2nd base in place of Murphy,
  Ike Davis gets the night off and Justin Turner plays 1st base and…
  of course! Scott Harriston starts in left field.
  • Lifelongmetsfan July 16, 2012 at 7:12 pm

    Opps tomorrow night….
    Now REALLY if Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy are not in the starting lineup tommmorrow after an off day.. something is very wrong.
• Fonzie13 July 16, 2012 at 8:44 pm

  No matter how you look at it this bullpen is a disaster. ERA is not a good way to judge a bullpen. Doesn’t matter if our top 5 aren’t “Technically” the worst in baseball it’s still one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Bottom line is the front office failed to rebuld the bullpen. It’s also a disgrace that we don’t have one reliable arm in our pen from our system. When Bobby Parnell is the best you can do you’ve done a horrendous job.
• Yeah July 16, 2012 at 9:36 pm

  Yeah right! I mean really??? Manipulating stats. We all know that when the bullpens comes on in a one run lead, we are pretty much toast. See the Atlanta series. We blow games left and right. We are THIRD on blown Saves.
• Joey D. July 16, 2012 at 9:52 pm

  Think of it – even the umpires are getting the pitches right more often than our bullpen.
• amazin July 16, 2012 at 9:55 pm

  Anybodyan twist stats to make their masterlook good. All jessup proved is that hew is a stooge and a kool aide drinker. Good job on being a fool once again jessup the clown prince of Alderson’s blind loyalists.
• oleosmirf July 16, 2012 at 10:14 pm

  While I understand your sentiment, ERA is a misleading tool to use for the bullpen because it does not account for inherited runners when a SP is taken out of the game.

  Sandy’s only objective this off-season was to improve the bullpen and he did not. It might not be the worst in the league, but It’s right up there and even though Omar did not provide him with any real options in the minors, he should have done better…
  • Stick July 16, 2012 at 10:18 pm

    on the bright side, the only guy even signed past this year is Franky, and he was actually doing well since May until he got hurt. So no worry about seeing Ramon or rauch next year. And ideally next year Franky will just be slotting in as a set up man for a more attractive closer option.
    • oleosmirf July 16, 2012 at 10:29 pm

      well once again the Mets will not be in the market for a position player since they are still going to be evaluating their internal options, so Sandy can put his complete attention on the bullpen again.

      I’m hoping Sandy can find a way to trade guys like Murphy and Kirk and bring in a young player or two that compliment the other players better. Nothing against those two, but both those guys have trade value and can maybe get us an up and coming player from another organization that would prefer Kirk or Murph for whatever reason.
• Joey D. July 16, 2012 at 11:00 pm

  Actually, there are many relievers out there who cannot be categorized as crap shoots since they have had lengthy and productive careers. Off the top of my head I can name more than a half dozen recent ex-Mets who have done quite well for themselves over a period of time and those names might or might not surprise you.

  - Darren Oliver (going on five straight seasons of an ERA below 3.00)
  - Joe Smith (3.13 lifetime ERA over six seasons)
  - J. J. Putz (lifetime 3.14 ERA over ten years)
  - Chad Bradford (3.36 ERA over 12 years)
  - Pedro Feliciano (3.31 over eight years before injury)
  - Heath Bell (despite this season with Miami he was solid for the last five years, only once sporting an ERA above 2.71)
  - Jason Isringhaussen (a stretch of six out of seven years with ERAs below three)

  Notice I’m not including our big closers, i.e., Franco, Wagner or Rodriguez, in that list. Please don’t ask me about Armando Benetiz.

  Now of course, ERA for a reliever can be very misleading but as a general guide just this small example of recent Mets shows that there may be many more a reliever out there that is not a career crap shoot as we might believe. Yes, they can have off years and periods of bad stretches in each of their seasons but then, what player doesn’t?

  So is it wise for many general managers not to stick with some relievers longer than they do?
• sarge69 July 17, 2012 at 2:15 am

  Regardless of numbers, Ramirez was the reason another LH was not added and it took almost a 1/2 season to figure that out AND to bring up the best choice, Edgin for his strikeout ability, after the ASG!

  Who is to blame for this? SA who traded a better CF than Torres, for a supposed RH BP arm that could get LH batters out, which has not happened.

  Who is to blame that Parnell has shown that he can’t handle the pressure of men on base innings, more times than not, plus does not have the mental toughness to close on a regular basis?

  Stats are one thing but allowing a run here or a run there, doesn’t always have to be a lot of runs, allows other team to keep a GS from tying game, or an extra run by BP makes late rally that falls a run short not relevant.

  So my deal is BP arms coming in not holding other team, not being able to come into game in tough situation, like Rauch did for No Han in Tampa, and shut down other team; when was the last time this happened in last wk before ASG or in Hot-Lanta series?

  You can have a great ERA, WHIP, ERA+ but if you come in and can’t hold other team to no more runners scoring or come into a clean inning and NOT walk the 1st batter you face, Byrdak lately, then all your numbers can look great but you have to pass the eye AND victory test, your appearance contributed to the win or held the other team in tie allowing Mets to win.

  Lastly how many times has the defense been a partner in the BP’s demise?
  I saw some stats, maybe on this site or another, on how strange the numbers have shown a regular pairing of error and BP allowing a run that has led to team losing.

  Lastly No. 2, I’m sorry but the Duda experiment in RF is not working, he is too slow, has not shown an ability on routes to the ball or quickness to play an important position like RF, maybe a platoon is needed; too bad Pagan is not here to help
  • Metsie July 17, 2012 at 2:32 am

    “…for a supposed RH BP arm that could get LH batters out”

    Nut thats the rub here…He never cpould get lefties out…
    He was used as a Right handed Specialist where righties hit .201 in 960 PA and Lefties hit .267 in 716 PA.

    Last year he was a RH Specialist almost exclusively!
    204 PA vs RHB .203 BA 78 PA vs LHB .250 BA!

    In his career he has been in 89 games with a save situation. He got 9 saves.

    Hell you don’t need advanced calculus to know this guy was used to face tough RH Batter and then pulled for someone to deal with the lefties.
    Yet we put this guy in as the full inning face everyone 7th and 8th inning guy!

    If they thought they were getting someone who could get both sides of the plate out then time to change the mathemetician they are using to analyse the stats!
    • stick July 17, 2012 at 9:04 am

      a .250 BA against for opposite side batters is actually pretty good. Certainly would take that now!

      and I honestly don’t know what the % in MLB of RH and LH batters is, but he faced about 28% LH and 72% RH batters. not sure that really says ROOGY to me.
      • trs86 July 17, 2012 at 10:31 am

        Not only that but as usual it’s just not factual. Ramirez last year appeared in 66 games and pitched at least an inning in 48 of them. Must be a lot of teams refusing to put a LH in against the ROOGY huh? His .250 BAA vs the opposite hand is actually very good for a RH and he limited the power numbers vs. them as well giving up 0 HR and a .265 SLG%. So to say he should be a RH that can pitch full innings was a safe bet. Obviously this year he has stunk vs. LH and I wonder if that is not from the injury and not being able to use his change up effectively?

        Also, how the hell do you use the save stat against a guy who is NOT the closer? You expect them to leave him out there multiple innings in a save situation and tell their closer to take the night off? Teams don’t do that.
        • Metsie July 17, 2012 at 1:32 pm

          LOL I read you two and all I hear is “Duck and Cover” LOL

          I see you both glossed over his .267 BA career BA vs LHBs and ran with the .250 he had just last year because they avoided using him vs the really tough lefties and brought in loogies to deal with them in the 8th!
• Mike July 17, 2012 at 8:52 am

  interesting point about the bullpen.

  the only thing im wondering about is did you account for the runs they give up that were inherited runners? I feel that that is a missed stat. A reliever can theoretically go the entire season with a 0.00 ERA but lose game by letting the runners left on base score when they enter the game. I feel like that is actually a much more important stat than their ERA (case in point Chad Bradford ’06)

  What I’m looking for in a bullpen is the ability to get out of sticky situations at a high percentage regardless of era.
  • jessep July 17, 2012 at 9:59 am

    Mike – I love IR/IRS. It’s actually my favorite bullpen stat.

    I could go into crazy detail here, but that wasn’t the point.

    The point was you often hear that Alderson went out and acquired Rauch, Ramirez, Francisco and re-signed Byrdak and in doing so he created the worst bullpen in baseball.

    That statement is false. Its been said here, I’ve heard it on WFAN, I’ve seen it on Twitter.

    Those pitchers are not the reason the Mets have the worst ERA for a bullpen. The reason is, the guys being called up to fill in temporarily have been awful. And the Mets do not have a single lights out pitcher out of the pen.

    That’s why.

    Each team has go to guys. Usually 5 guys who out appear the rest by a solid margin.

    You take those guys, and the Mets rank 10th out of 16. Now that is in no way something to brag about. It’s just me pointing out the falsehood of the sentiment that these main guys are the reason the Mets have the worst pen.

    Again I will reiterate. If you were told to judge the Mets lineup. Would you include Zach Lutz and Vinny Rottino? Would you hold Lutz’s average against guys like Wright?

    Of course you wouldn’t. Nobody judges a lineup or a starting staff based on a minor league call up who gets a few AB’s or 1 or 2 starts.
    • Metsie July 17, 2012 at 1:05 pm

      Well why were those fill ins needed?

      Lets see…

      Rauch Ramirez and now Francisco all have missed time because they got hurt. (Something you have taken Omar to task for signing) And when they were not hurt no one trusted them enough to want to give them the ball because they were blowing games like there was no tomorrow! Those guys pitched thier way out of the roles they were hired to fill!

      Second you consider someone like Acosta “FIll In” but the truth is he was one of the guys Sandy was counting on to start the season not some fill in call up as your trying to suggest!
      Elvin Ramirez, Josh Edgin, and Egbert were brought up to deal with the ineffectiveness and injuries to Rauch and Ramirez! You might be able to sell those three as fill ins but not Acosta and Carrasco!

      Carrasco who your Stat Manipulation took out of the equation due to the anomoly you used to count pitchers (Appearances) was a TWO YEAR SIGNING..You don’t give Fill Ins a TWOI YEAR contract!

      But you decided Appearances constituted a Fill In and it was convenient to use that as it got rid of two guys who were part of Sandy’s Bullpen plans but failed and got sent down! Thats how you lowered the team ERA to look like it was on a par with everyone else!
• Joey D. July 17, 2012 at 11:49 am

  “Francisco, Rauch, Ramirez, Parnell, Byrdak, Beato, Batista. The group I think we can all safely say is the “core” bullpen. Beato would have been in there on opening day had it not been for injury.

  Take that group, their total salary in 2012 was $14.391 million.

  KRod would have made $17.5mil had they not dealt him.

  That’s all you need to know.”

  Jessep,

  Those salary figures are important to one playing rotissieri league baseball, not one playing the mega profit business of major league baseball with the advantage of being in New York and not Pittsburgh, Kansas City or Oakland. Even applying those figures in the debit/credit columns doesn’t seem as good an investment compared to what appears in the won/lost columns, even if one’s goal is to simply make as much money as possible to reduce a mounting debt getting worse and worse each year (if the team itself losing money is a true indication as SA says it is).

  One applies cost to what it can yield in terms of future profit. Sterling Equities can’t abide by that right now because their need for money is immediate.

  Sandy has given us two conflicting stories about the immediate. He has stated that the Mets would be able to meet operating expenses for the year but that the team has also been losing money since 2009 and will do so again in 2012. The only way for neither statement to conflict with the other means cutting back on operating costs to the bare bone. To achieve that, they must have reduced their overall operating costs way, way beyond the $17 million they saved with KRod

  The roster payroll was never the cause of the owner’s problems but was certainly affected by it. So if one wants to talk about cost in terms of the Wilpon’s current financial dilemma, that is completely valid . To talk about it in terms of a principle rule versus principal sum, it is a losing argument.
  • jessep July 17, 2012 at 12:05 pm

    To be honest with you Joey D, I have absolutely no idea what a rotisserie league is or does.

    My point was, there is no way to deny the Mets had financial problems and probably still do but to a lesser degree.

    My point was, what they’d spend on ONE player, they spent less on SEVEN.

    When you have financial problems, that matters. You have to get more value from your players when you are trying to save money or spending more wisely.

    You can’t tell me you’d trade Francisco, Rauch, Ramirez, Parnell, Byrdak, Beato, and Batista for KRod.

    The bullpen is where you spend your 3rd most money. Offense or Rotation, then Bullpen, then bench.
  • trs86 July 17, 2012 at 12:05 pm

    Have you noticed that Ramirez and Krod’s numbers are almost identical?
    • jessep July 17, 2012 at 12:13 pm

      35IP 2-1 3.60ERA 30K 16BB 1.429 WHIP 9/17 IRS
      41.2IP 2-4 3.67ERA 39K 18BB 1.416WHIP 0/7 IRS

      Different roles in their pen, but yes. One would cost you $17.5mil and 1 cost you $2.65mil.

      A team with financial troubles will gladly take the guy for 2.65mil.
      • Metsie July 17, 2012 at 1:47 pm

        And one pitches in the best HR park in the league, 3rd best Run Scoring park in the league, 7th best hitter park in the league, 5th best Doubles park in the league….
        While the other pitches in the 27th best RS park, 17th best HR park, 27th best Hitters park, and 26th best Doubles park in the league

        Yet they have similar numbers to you?
        Hmmm I wonder why?
        Swap them and what happens to thier numbers?
• jdon July 17, 2012 at 12:56 pm

  They are still pretty hard on the stomach acids.
• yeah July 17, 2012 at 1:02 pm

  More craziness. 3rd in blown saves and here comes the kicker in the gut….Mets bullpen has 18 losses this season…
• jessep July 17, 2012 at 10:21 pm

  See!? Told ya!
• Barry July 17, 2012 at 10:34 pm

  Absolutely gut-wrenching. Unless he goes to another team and something changes dramatically, Parnell will never be a closer.
• Joey D. July 17, 2012 at 10:36 pm

  Again our bullpen blows late inning rallies – twice.

  Anything more need to be said about this not being as bad? Does it make any difference?