4 Bolder Predictions for the New York Mets in the Second Half of the Season

An article by posted on July 13, 2012

Let me begin by apologizing to Bleacher Report who inspired me to write this post after I read “4 Bold Predictions for the New York Mets in the Second Half of the Season“. Usually when I see the word “bold” used in a title like that, I expect to see someone going out on a limb or just predicting something insanely improbable. But after clicking through one of their patented, state of the art, slideshows, I gotta tell you I was completely underwhelmed and disappointed. I stared at the screen wishing I could have 4 minutes and 32 seconds back. Anyway, here in summary form are their 4 “Bold Predictions” for the Mets’ second half:

  1. David Wright will prove his first half wasn’t a fluke.
  2. Santana will have a bad second half, but Dickey will have a good one.
  3. The Mets will make a big splash at the trade deadline.
  4. The Mets will compete for one of the Wild Cards.

What do you think? Are those bold enough for you? I think I can be a little bolder, and the best part? No slideshows.

4 BOLDER PREDICTIONS FOR METS IN SECOND HALF

1. Lucas Duda will have a higher batting average, on-base and slugging than David Wright.

I have a big hunch that David Wright could lose about 50 points in batting average in the second half, but still finish a tick above .300 for the season. I believe fatigue will set in for Wright and that he will see fewer and fewer fastballs. Late in games I expect to see more right-handed relievers bought in to face him, and that he could have at least one major extended slump. On the other hand, Lucas Duda will have a tremendous second half – so much so, that most Mets fans will stop complaining about his defense in right field.

2. Dickey will come down to earth a little, while Santana takes his performance to a higher level.

As much as I’d love to see it, I’m thinking Dickey wont make it to the magic 20 win mark in the second half. I think the bullpen will get worse and not better as mostly all bullpens do in the second half. I believe NL hitters will be better prepared against the knuckleball the second and third time around. Santana on the other hand will pitch even better and more consistently as well. As his shoulder gets stronger and his confidence grows, a return to dominace is in the cards and could have a Cy Young caliber second half.

3. The Mets will do nothing at the trade deadline.

I know, I know, I heard all the rumors too. The Mets are going after a right-handed bat. The Mets are going to bolster the bullpen. The Mets are upgrading the catching position. And now the Mets will look outside the organization to replace Dillon Gee. I don’t believe any of it. There are far more buyers than there are sellers with this new playoff system, and that means giving up better prospects and taking on more big contracts. I don’t see it. You might see a tiny move for someone off the scrap heap for a utility spot, but I can’t see them even considering anything like that and expending a 40 man roster spot. What you see is what you get. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing as I expect some players to step up big-time in the second half like Ike Davis, Ruben Tejada and yes Jason Bay.

4. Andres Torres will be released or traded and Jordany Valdespin will become the everyday centerfielder.

The Andres Torres experiment has been a colossal failure and his days are numbered. Valdespin has played fewer games in center field than Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Mike Baxter and Scott Hairston, but his athleticism is unquestioned and he has the speed and range to pull it off. It will happen.

Anyway, that’s my take on things and I look forward to getting shredded apart in the comments thread. ;-)

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