13
2012
4 Bolder Predictions for the New York Mets in the Second Half of the Season
An article by Craig Lerner
Let me begin by apologizing to Bleacher Report who inspired me to write this post after I read “4 Bold Predictions for the New York Mets in the Second Half of the Season“. Usually when I see the word “bold” used in a title like that, I expect to see someone going out on a limb or just predicting something insanely improbable. But after clicking through one of their patented, state of the art, slideshows, I gotta tell you I was completely underwhelmed and disappointed. I stared at the screen wishing I could have 4 minutes and 32 seconds back. Anyway, here in summary form are their 4 “Bold Predictions” for the Mets’ second half:
- David Wright will prove his first half wasn’t a fluke.
- Santana will have a bad second half, but Dickey will have a good one.
- The Mets will make a big splash at the trade deadline.
- The Mets will compete for one of the Wild Cards.
What do you think? Are those bold enough for you? I think I can be a little bolder, and the best part? No slideshows.
4 BOLDER PREDICTIONS FOR METS IN SECOND HALF
1. Lucas Duda will have a higher batting average, on-base and slugging than David Wright.
I have a big hunch that David Wright could lose about 50 points in batting average in the second half, but still finish a tick above .300 for the season. I believe fatigue will set in for Wright and that he will see fewer and fewer fastballs. Late in games I expect to see more right-handed relievers bought in to face him, and that he could have at least one major extended slump. On the other hand, Lucas Duda will have a tremendous second half – so much so, that most Mets fans will stop complaining about his defense in right field.
2. Dickey will come down to earth a little, while Santana takes his performance to a higher level.
As much as I’d love to see it, I’m thinking Dickey wont make it to the magic 20 win mark in the second half. I think the bullpen will get worse and not better as mostly all bullpens do in the second half. I believe NL hitters will be better prepared against the knuckleball the second and third time around. Santana on the other hand will pitch even better and more consistently as well. As his shoulder gets stronger and his confidence grows, a return to dominace is in the cards and could have a Cy Young caliber second half.
3. The Mets will do nothing at the trade deadline.
I know, I know, I heard all the rumors too. The Mets are going after a right-handed bat. The Mets are going to bolster the bullpen. The Mets are upgrading the catching position. And now the Mets will look outside the organization to replace Dillon Gee. I don’t believe any of it. There are far more buyers than there are sellers with this new playoff system, and that means giving up better prospects and taking on more big contracts. I don’t see it. You might see a tiny move for someone off the scrap heap for a utility spot, but I can’t see them even considering anything like that and expending a 40 man roster spot. What you see is what you get. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing as I expect some players to step up big-time in the second half like Ike Davis, Ruben Tejada and yes Jason Bay.
4. Andres Torres will be released or traded and Jordany Valdespin will become the everyday centerfielder.
The Andres Torres experiment has been a colossal failure and his days are numbered. Valdespin has played fewer games in center field than Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Mike Baxter and Scott Hairston, but his athleticism is unquestioned and he has the speed and range to pull it off. It will happen.
Anyway, that’s my take on things and I look forward to getting shredded apart in the comments thread. 
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
Last updated: 06/19/2013
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Wow, love the predictions.
I’ve lost all confidence in Lucas Duda. With Murph and Duda you can’t have two guys who can hit but can’t field and Murph at least hustles, Lucas doesn’t seem to put himself out to run hard when chasing balls in the outfield or running to first base. One of them needs to be traded and I’m leaning toward Lucas. Our defense is pathetic.
I’d love for JV to come up for good. Seems like Dickey is already coming down to Earth and I’d be more surprised if we Did something at the trade deadline than if we didn’t.
I BELIEVE DICKEY’S ONLY ISSUE TO BE FEARED IS THE PARSING OUT OF HIS “OFF” TIME AS HIS STORY GETS BIGGER & BIGGER BECAUSE NO ONE IN THE NL KNOWS HOW TO HIT A KNUCKLEBALL EXCEPT WERTH(WHO FEEDS OFF IT) YOUNGER HITTERS ARE GROWING TO FEAR THE KNUCKLER; DICKEY NEEDS TO SCRAP THE FASTBALL & IGNORE THE OCCASIONAL BB; HIS PREDICTABILITY OF A MEDIOCRE HEATER WITH ANY 3B COUNT IS KILLING HIM.
THE DICKEY PHENOMEN IS LESS LIKELY TO FADE THAN SANTANA & YOUNG’S REPAIRED ARMS ARE TO TIRE OUT.
DICKEY’S SPECIAL APPEARANCES MUST BE MONITORED CLOSELY JUST AS WITH ANY PLAYER REACHING NATIONAL ACCLAIM MID-SEASON.
HIS BOOK RELEASE SHOULD’VE BEEN TIMED TO THE OFFSEASON WHEN HIS TIME LENDS BETTER FOR SIGNINGS & TV APPEARANCES.
KEPT ON PROPER SCHEDULE, I FAIL TO SEE ANY REASON WHY DICKEY SHOULD FALTER HE’LL CERTAINLY HAVE BUST GAMES CAUSED BY ATMOSPHERIC ANOMOLIES WHICH DON’T EFFECT STANDARD PITCHERS COLLINS/WARTHAN BETTER BE PREPARED TO YANK SKIP HIM FROM A START AT A MOMENT’S NOTICE.
AS LONG AS “BUTTERFLY” BREAKS UNPREDICTABLY, IT REMAINS UNEFFECTED BY TAPE REPLAY STUDIES FROM HITTERS. [DICKEY'S MOST VALUABLE ASSET]
The trade deadline part made me feel sick. Very bold, but I would love for all (or most) of this to come true.
I am looking for the Mets to:
1.Trade for an upgrade over Nickeas as backup catcher.
2. Bring up Matt Harvey
3.Install someone other than Torres as everyday CF
4. Bay go back on DL for rest of season. I think he should at least change his number from 44 to 22. Maybe it will change his luck. (Both of our MVP’s in World Series have been #22)
OMG, I love Bay changing his number!
ha I thought you meant change from 44 to 22 because he’s half the player we thought he’d be
1. Lucas Duda will have a higher batting average, on-base and slugging than David Wright”
Honestly, not sure about OBP. But i can see as to why you’d pick duda, He surged after the second half last year, with that being said, you’re explanations are way off on wright. against “Right handed bullpen guys” he is 6-11 1 3 RBI, I mean, i don’t like to use too much numbers as to describe a player, but he hit over 340 after the 7th inning.. But, that’s your prediction.
3. The Mets will do nothing at the trade deadline.
Agree…..
My prediction are as follow:
1. Ike Davis will have a monster second hafl…
As bad as he was, even to the point of some wishing he’d go down, the man had 12 HR and 49 RBI, I mean, he can very well end up with 25+ HR and 100 RBI at the end of the season, and his BA can come up to 250 or so. Second half we will Like!
2. Parnell will have a good second half…
Nothing the Genious GM brought in this past offseason is good, so, throughout the year the mets players had to pick up the slack for the lack of help brought in, in comes parnell and saves the bullpen’s day. Would not be surprised if he ends up being the closer and FFF demote to what he is best suit for, Set up Role. Imagine a $6 million dollar set up man SMH
3.Valdespin…
this kid is a gamer. I’ve defended him and his swagger, he’s got the IT this mets team seem to have lost whn reyes departed. I look for him to contribute big time for this team, playing CF, 2B and i believe given the chance, he can end up being our biggest surprise this Year.
4. DIckey will win the Cy Young…
this franchise is not stranger to Cy Youngs, look for Dickey to be the mets 3rd Cy young winner alogn with seaver and gooden
5. Last but not least, the mets WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS..
Despite futile efforts from this front office to hep this team, the MEts find a way to grab a WC spot. All the players step up their game even more and become better to carry the mets.
Let’s just hope that Tony Larussa does not get to vote for Cy Young winner.
Lerner:
I said almost a month ago that I think Torres will not be on this team by Sept 1. So I am taking 100% trademark to your statement haha
Torres could certainly get the boot.
What is a “big splash”? Upton? Quentin? Street? Just curious on how you define it. The only way I can see Alderson making a big splash is anything not involve Harvey or Wheeler, and unfortunately, a “BIG” splash would be for an Upton/Grienke/Garza type, who would most likely require one. He’s not parting with those 2. Now, if a Garza could be had for Familia and others (not sure if Mejia would need to be in there as well), That’s something I’d consider for sure.
I hope you are right on Duda. He’s starting to worry me a little.
Its been a great first half and way more than I expected lets hope the the guys can keep it up. I just enjoy watching all the young players that are in the system and you can credit Omar for that.
“I have a big hunch that David Wright could lose about 50 points in batting average in the second half” – I pretty much guarantee it. Wright’s a .300 hitter, not a .350 hitter. He’s hit at such a hig level for some long, though, he might not drop down all the way. He could finish at .315 or .320, but your prediction is fairly standard.
“Dickey will come down to earth a little” – Again, it’s a pipe dream to think Dickey will go 24-2, 2.40 on the season. He has to regress, because he’s RA Dickey, not Sandy Seaver, or Tom Koufax.
Yeah, I think that Duda and Ike will have a better 2nd half and I suspect that Wright and Tejada will drop a bit. Both are due for a slump.
I don’t expect and major “game changing” moves made. We might see a small piece added to help out, but nothing major…I think adding a starter or closer will be too expensive…the bench has been pretty good and I don’t see a real improvement being affordable…plus they don’t want to mes up team chemistry.
We’re looking at Ramon Hernandez? Really? I’d rather see them sign I-Rod before trading to Hernandez. I know Nickeas has sucked, but I don’t see Hernandez as a real upgrade at this point.
Harvey will be pitching at CityField by August.
RAD and Santana will still be good, but we’ll see a few more shaky starts from them.
Bay will come back and struggle at first, but eventually start hitting..He’ll still K a lot more than I like and his production rate will never be what it was pre-Mets…but he’ll make us believe that he has turned things around and can be productive. (although most will still doubt him and hate him.)
I have a scary feeling that they will fade as the season goes on…I think they’ll finish with about 85wins and fall a couple games short of the WC.
Remember, has great as this season has been, they’re only won four or five more games than last year at this point…and that was after that horrendous start the team got off to. It’s strange, last year (first half) we had speed and a pretty good bull pen, the team was the Reyes and Beltran show with some help from Murphy…Now our bullpen sucks, Reyes and Beltran are gone, Murph isn’t hitting as well and we have Zero speed…It’s all the RAD, Santana and Wright show now and I don’t see them keeping up the pace they set and i don’t see anyone one else stepping up enough to pick up the slack.
(1) Duda has shown to be a 2nd half player in the past 2 seasons, but in order for Wright to finish “a tick above .300″ means he would have to bat around .240 going forward for that to happen.
Sorry, but now that Wright fixed his problems he is back to his old self and is just too good a player to go through that kind of slump.
(2) I agree that Dickey will come down to earth, but I do expect the Mets bullpen to be better simply because they are healthy. FF, Parnell, Rauch, Ramirez, Beato, Byrdak, Edgin is going to be good enough where they won’t be terrible anymore.
(3) I disagree on this. Obviously giving up prospects is something they won’t do, but a guy like Shoppach, Wigginton, K-Rod wouldn’t be asking too much. Also the waiver trade period can help get a reliever or bench player…
(4) I agree 100% although remember Torres seems to be a very important clubhouse guy so a release is going to be difficult…
Torres and a prospect for Victorino and 2 million. A rental for a rental.
Terrible.
I cannot stand Victorino. Nothing he can do for the Mets will make him a better fit than Kirk or Spin in CF.
I’ve always felt he was a dirty player and frankly if he were a Met I’d have a tough time rooting for him individually.
No Victorino.
BOLD…you want bold? Bay returns as the right handed half of a platoon and does an ok job.
I’m not really good at these type of predictions. So much can happen.
I think Craig’s are closer though than the Bleacher Report.
I believe David Wright will continue to lead the brigade, along with Ike and Duda picking it up this second half.
Crossing my fingers Johan stays healthy. If yes, I think he’ll be solid.
RA? I’m going all in for CY contention.
Right now I believe we still have a shot at post season. Ask me again in a month.
OT: (for all you DWright haters out there):
Per Rubin:
MLB Players Assoc. named David Wright #Mets winner of “Heart & Hustle” award for “passion for game & best embody values, spirit, tradition.”
Here are mine
1 – We will lose another SP before the season is out, Either due to injury (Santana and Young prime candidates with Young the favorite here) or due to lack of performance due to endurance issues.Also possible we lose on in a trade though less likely now that Gee got hurt.
2 – Dickey will have an average July and a sub standard August but get it back in September for the final push.
3 – The Mets will look like they are falling out of the race and appear out of it on the first week of August where things will start to pickup and they play thier way back into the race by the end of September. Starting to day until August 7th they play thier toughest stretch of games in the entire season against teams and away who are all formidable playoff opponents. @Atlanta (3 games),Washington (3@3H), a now healthy Dodgers (3H), @Arizona (4), and @Giants (4). Thats followed by 3 @SD which could be a tough seies at the end of a very long WC Road trip.
4 – Reuben Tejada will overtake Wright as the Met we associate with the Batting Title race.
5 – The shine on Valdespin will come off by the time the season ends as the MLB Pitchers figure him out. Kirk will be the regular CF when the season ends.