23
2012
So How Much Is RA Dickey Worth?
An article by 
Riddle me this… You have a 37 year old pitcher, a knuckleballer, in the midst of the greatest season of his career who has become a fan favorite and is well on his way to earning a second contract extension since joining the team in 2010. How on earth do you approach that contract negotiation? This my friends is why Sandy Alderson gets paid the big bucks, because there is no handbook for this one and there are a TON of variables that are going to come into play.
First and foremost, conventional wisdom would say you’d be nuts to offer a multi-year deal to a 37 year old starting pitcher. Doing a bit of research, it appears there are only nine pitchers, Dickey’s age or older, in all of major league baseball who’ve even made a start this season. Of those, there is only one other hurler who is on a multi-year deal other than Dickey and that is Cleveland’s Derek Lowe, who signed a 4yr/$60M deal at age 35. The thing about Lowe, if we even want to call him the exception to the rule, is that he had a history of success. Nine consecutive seasons (2002 – 2010) of a dozen wins or more will earn you that lucrative late career contract.
A look back in recent history finds Tim Wakefield as the last successful knuckleballer of note. As such, he may provide a better measuring stick to judge Dickey’s financial value due to the expectation that knuckleballers can pitch well into their forties. At age 36, albeit a year younger than Dickey at the time, he signed a 3yr/$13M deal. The issue remains that just like Lowe, he too had a history of success. In 2003 when he signed that deal, Wakefield had already posted five seasons of ten wins or more. RA Dickey has no such legacy. In fact, Dickey’s 52 career wins include only two season which he’s posted double digit victories. However, Wakefield would go on to post six additional seasons of ten wins or more, which should be an interesting tidbit in Dickey’s favor.
The reality of the situation is that there has never been this type of circumstance. While I don’t think that it is, its impossible to determine if Dickey’s masterful year to date is anything more than a fluke. Has he perfected the knuckleball? His BB rate and WHIP since joining the Mets certainly blow away the career numbers of Wakefield, but is that enough to convince the front office that Dickey can continue his torrid pace for years to come?
We do know several things for certain… Dickey has struck a chord with the team’s fan base that is certainly good for business. He is as approachable as he is intelligent, both factors that should prove invaluable towards the twilight of his seemingly delayed major league career. The current circumstances should also drive the Mets to the negotiating table sooner than later. Should Dickey ride this current wave to a twenty win season and the Cy Young award, the negotiations would get increasingly more complicated. As I mentioned above, the variables are endless.
Plain and simple, Dickey has earned his next extension and appears to be a major piece of the franchise for several years to come. The question remains at what price. If I were Sandy Alderson, using Tim Wakefield’s career as the baseline for knuckleballers and taking inflation into account, I would offer an extension that wipes out the option year of Dickey’s current contract in exchange for an extension in the 3yr/$20M realm with a team option for a fourth year, should he remain effective. Such a deal would bring Dickey to the ripe old age of 42, at which point one year deal’s would be in the cards from that point forward.
That’s the way I look at it when trying to take everything, except emotion, into account. What do you think? Is Dickey worth that and then some or would you prefer the Mets didn’t take the risk on an older player who has no history of greatness? Or maybe I’m spot on? Sound off below…
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About the Author: Rob Patterson
Ultimately, I owe nearly thirty years of Mets related torture to my mother, who is the reason I became a fan. I was too young to remember the 86 run, but hope to see one I'll be able to recall much sooner than later. I enjoy writing about the team and welcome your feedback on my posts. Oh..and I am not with 28!
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I read a arrival not to long ago when dickey said he don’t want a lot, he feels his family is blessed enough financially. I would be surprised if he signed for 3 years 9 million.
Not being a fan or very familiar with American League baseball, I too asked who is R.A. Dickey when he first arrived in 2010. He was one of the few bright lights for this team that first year and even though his won-lost record was poor in 2011, he finished the season strong. It seemed to me that as the weather got warmer….he got better. Here in 2012, Dickey seems to have dealt much better with the early season weather and has been outstanding. It seems that the only thing at this point that could derail a 20 win season, an All Star game nomination and Cy Young consideration would be injury. ( I say that not too loud)….
Then again…..Cain and Kershaw are in the mix too! Me? I’ll be thrilled for a 20 win season especially for Dickey himself. He is a breath of fresh air and his rise to this performance level is a “feel good” thing.
I would think that Dickey would agree to a 3 year deal in the neighborhood of 25-30 million in a heartbeat!
The thought of a Santana, Dickey rotation and the new stud arms of Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler sounds like a winner to me.
Sandy won’t wait on this one. He realizes that Dickey’s stuff will be a perfect blend in a rotation like this. I believe that he won’t wait to make a good offer to R.A. before the season ends!
I think you need to throw all history out the window with Dickey, since he is the only pitcher possibly ever, to throw an 80 mph knuckleball.
I have no reservations at all about giving him a long term deal as long as the salary is not outrageous. I think 4 years 35 million (front-loaded and starting next season) is pretty reasonable, no?
THERE ARE COUNTLESS REASONS FOR TOSSING OUT ALL COMPARATIVE RESEARCH THE LEAST OF WHICH IS THAT R.A. IS A UNIQUE FIGURE INASMUCH AS MOST OF HIS HISTORICAL RECORDS WERE AS A STANDARD STYLED PITCHER SANS UCL IN HIS PITCHING ELBOW; ONE POTENTIAL COMPARATIVE COULD BE HIS ABILITY TO SUSTAIN HIS STYLE EFFECTIVELY MUCH PAST HIS 40th BIRTHDAY AS THE MOST FAMOUS KNUCKLERS I COULD RECALL AND THEIR RETIREMENT AGES WERE:
PITCHER RETIREMENT AGE
J.NIEKRO 44
P NIEKRO 48
WILHELM 49
WAKEFIELD 43
CANDIOTTI 43
AS FAR AS I’M CONCERNED DICKEY, AS A KNUCKLER AGED 38 IS EQUIVILENT TO A STANDARD PITCHER AGED 28, IN AS MUCH AS THEY EACH HAVE MASTERED THEIR CRAFT.
I COULD EASILY ENVISION AN OPENING OFFER OF 3Y/15M WILLING TO GO UP TO 3Y/30M AS MY WALK AWAY NUMBER.(WITH MOST OF MY HIGHER $ OFFERS BASED UPON INCENTIVE ACHIEVVEMENTS)
THE KNUCKLEBALL IS A UNIQUE PITCH MOST MODERN NL PLAYERS HAVE NEVER FACED SINCE CANDIOTTI’S RETIREMENT IN 2000.
PERSONALLY, I THINK THERE WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH HIS BEING CHOSEN FOR HIS DEZERVING SPOT ON THIS YR’S ALLSTAR TEAM SINCE A QUALIFIED CATCHING OPTION MAY BE A ROADBLOCK.
P.S. AT LEAST WITH R.A. THE CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED OF TJ SURGERY IS ELIMINATED.
There’s 2 problems with comparing Dickey to other knuckleball pitchers:
1) none of them threw it at 80mph and varied speeds the way he does
2) retirement age is one thing, but how effective were they leading into their retirement?
exactly, which is why I feel 4 for 35 (front-loaded) is fair for both sides. It’s not prohibitive if RA becomes a #4-5 SP in years 3 and 4, but it compensates him for next season where he might be worth 15+ million again.
I have no problem “overpaying” for guys who truly deserve it like Wright, Santana and Dickey.
Agree. There are 2 things that make him different. The fastball and the control.
You can’t just say all knucklers were like Dickey as they got older because they weren’t of the same makeup.
That’s why I think this is a tough call for the Mets because the way they normally do business is not applicable here. I hope they don’t sit tight and try to do business as usual here. When its a special case you have to take a gamble.
I have absolutely no doubt that RA Dickey will be resigned because no reasonable GM would let a player like this leave over a nominal amount of money (in baseball terms)
You know 1 way fans can make sure he is signed?
Show up to the ballpark, especially when he pitches.
His marketing value is high right now, but if they don’t see a payoff when he’s at his peak… it won’t translate to returned $
If the season ended today, RA Dickey would be pitching against Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum for the right to face the LA Dodgers.
The clock is ticking as the summer has officially begun. It’s time to show up and support the team.
Mets fans wont pack the park until ownership shows their willingness to spend money and reasonably so.
The Mets desperately need a closer and impending FA RP are usually available if teams are willing to pay the entire salary. If the status quo hasn’t changed, the Wilpons are going to have to prove to their fans, that they care enough about winning, in order to get the fans back.
The average person doesn’t care about payroll or owners or GMs or any of that stuff.
The average person wants to see his team win. If the Mets continue to compete and make the prices at the park reasonable, you’ll see it packed.
Despite their current record, I do not believe this current Mets team is capable of making the playoffs without at least 1 significant addition.
That addition could theoretically be from the minors or a waiver wire move, but I don’t see Beato or Mejia ascending to a dominant role in the pen, this season.
At some point fans need to get over themselves and realize ownership has spent more than enough money in the last 7 years. To ignore the 2012 mets issues a waste of time. The product on the field is worth price of admission. That is what matters.
No what matters is if the people with the money feel it’s worth the price of admission and so far the attendance figures say they don’t!
Hi Metsie,
It isn’t worth it not at the high prices (after those processing fees) and the cost for concessions. And if the Mets start drawing more, expect those prices to go up even further thanks to “dynamic pricing”. For many of us, the fun at the park if offset by the high cost associated with such an excursion. This is Met baseball – not the Met opera.
But I guess there will be 40,000 willing to shell out such money each game but how much of them will actually be interested in the game compared to just being at an event?
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He is going to be the toughest decision the Mets have to make over the next year.
I think Alderson etc will have to throw aside their thoughts of an aging player. I think you can give a guy like Dickey the financial stability and not hurt the future finances too much.
It’s going to be a gamble, but he needs a minimum 4 year deal worth about $50mil I think. The things this guy can possibly do for this team within the next 5 seasons is immeasurable. Both on the field, for young pitchers, and in terms of marketing.
I really don’t think it’s that tough of a decision. The tough decision, IMO is what they do with Santana next August…
oleo: The reason I think it’s tough is the way they do things. RA Dickey is not a typical contract. There isn’t much of a precedent for a guy like him. Therefore they will need to abandon the way they normally do business and evaluate pitchers to get this done.
No matter who the GM is, abandoning your strategies is a tough thing to do. In this case, I think it’s the only way to go though.
I don’t think anybody will look at RA Dickey 2 years from now and get mad the Mets kept him.
Wow, 4/$50M is too rich in my opinion, but there is no precedent for this set of circumstances so I suppose anything is possible. I like that SA got Niese on a very franchise friendly deal and expect this to be somewhat the same..
Robert: Here’s the way I see it okay?
He’s making $5mil next year and $4.25 mil this year. It’s impossible to know what he’ll do in 2013 but I think we can all agree he’s already exceeded his $4mil worth.
If you believe he can pitch like a #1 next year, #2 or #3 at worst in the 2 years after then show me where you’re finding a pitcher for $12mil to be your #2 starter?
Pitching is at a premium in baseball right now. You have a guy like Mark Buehrle getting $58mil for 4 years, CJ Wilson $77mil for 5.
I guess the question is when do you feel Dickey will not be worth $10 mil or so? Realistically now. You have to put the fact you’re getting a bargain on him right now aside.
So when will Dickey be at best a #3 starter lets say?
I agree w what your saying about him being a #2 and being paid like it, but althought I think he pitched better than his record last season, he simply doesn’t have the successful past to warrant that type of deal whereas Buehrle and to a lesser extent Wilson do.
I don’t doubt that my 3/$20M could be low, but I don’t think I’m off by almost half either.
I think 3 for 20 is too low, unless you mean to start that in 2014, not 2013…
Niese is also a young player who has yet to establish himself as a consistent starting pitcher
You cannot compare Niese’s deal to Dickey’s. For starters, Niese would be a guy just happy to get a deal. Dickey is a guy who is looking for his final contract. This is it for him.
24-24 4.21 ERA 69GS 360K 406IP
30-23 2.86 ERA 72GS 341K 482IP
Dickey is on his way to becoming an all-star starter and is halfway through a cy young campaign. You cannot compare him to Niese right now. In Niese’s final year he’s making $9mil. You cannot tell me you know right now Niese is gonna be worth $9mil 4 years from now.
I’m not sure Dickey is that much more “established” than Niese, but I will concede from an ERA standpoint that Dickey has pitched much better over the last two+ seasons. Dickey has been around longer due to age, but they’ve spent about the same amount of time a “regular” major leaguers. Dickey’s multiple cups of coffee certainly pad his career stats…
As far a Niese being worth $9M in 4 years.. I envision Niese winning 12-15 games this year and think he can improve upon that still as he matures. IF he’s a perennial 12-15 game winner in 4 years time than yes I think he’ll be worth his contract and more.
JESS, AT THE RATE THIS ADMINISTRATION IS PRINTING MONEY THERE’S NO REASON TO BEWLIEVE $9M WILL BE WORTH $9M 4Y FROM NOW. ROTFLMAO
I would wait and see how the rest of the year goes. I can absolutely see him pitching for at least another couple of years. A 3 year 21M extension sounds about right.
Joe: The problem with that honestly is if he continues to pitch the way he is now, his value could exceed the Mets limitations.
It’s a gamble either way. If you offer him now what you know you can afford in the future, you lock up a player who deserves it, you show the fans you care about the future and keeping players and you show a player that you appreciate him.
If you wait, he can play himself past your budget for future years.
You were more than fair in your analysis as to how the Mets should approach the Dickey situation. As a baseline, 3/$20 with a club option for the fourth year is good, but the troubles will start to mount if he does receive those accolades. Dickey’s people are talking to the Mets, from what I’ve heard. Hopefully that will work in the organization’s favor come signing time.
This year is not a fluke he’s been good 3 straight years now. His first year he had a 2.84 ERA in 174 IP, 1.18 WHIP and last year he had a 3.28 ERA in 208 IP, 1.22 WHIP
So he’s been pitching consistently well for 3 straight seasons now.
I think Mets fans need to also understand that the numbers he has this season are not likely to continue in the future.
Expecting him to go 25-5 with a sub 2.00 ERA is just not reasonable. However, 15+ wins, ERA slightly under 3.00 and 220+ IP is still an ACE in my book and he should be justly compensated for it.
I’m not saying he will continue at this pace all the time. And at no time did i infer that – that’s why debating on the internet can waste so much precious time because of misunderstandings like that.
And i’m sorry you feel that I would even think that he can continue like this all the time. All i’m saying is he has been pitching consistently good for the Mets since he joined him so that’s why this season is not a fluke. It may wind up being his best year ever or maybe not because we still have the entire summer and season to go.
That’s what i’m saying. I hope that is CLEAR.
I was saying fans in general, not you specifically. The 40 scoreless innings with the double digit strikeouts are really messing with most people’s expectations for him.
I expect the RA Dickey of 2013 to win 15+ games, 220+ IP, ERA between 2.50 and 3.00, but see his SO drop a fairly decent amount. Then see his numbers gradually decline and around 2016 be what Dillon Gee is for us right now.
I will gladly give him 4 years 35 million and a club/vesting/mutual option for those expected results…
Bayonne, you kinda have to put the age factor as well.. It’s not as if this guy is 26 years old.. also, usually knuckleballers evebtually get figure out, the league is basically under some lack of offense spell that he and a lot of pitchers are benefitted from.. While i like him to be a met and continues to pitch the way he is, i think we should get as much out of him as possible and maybe trade him for more prospects to fill our minors with pitching, pitching and more pitching..
In a vacuum, you are correct and that the best course of action is to take advantage of his value and move him while his value is at the highest it will likely ever be. Same for David Wright.
What’s the fun in that though. The Tampa Bay Rays model is boring, awful to watch and quite frankly doesn’t result in winning championships. You can’t trade your star players away every time their value peaks, just because it’s the best way to use that value.
ALEX, BASED UPON THE MOST USED METHOD OF AB PREP(EXTENSIVE VIDEO STUDY) THAT TODAY’S PLAYERS ARE MOST USED TO. I DON’T ENVISION THEM CATCHING UP TO DICKEY ANYTIME SOON SINCE HE CAN EASILY THROW MULTIPLE PITCHES PER AB WITH NO 2 BEHAVING IDENTICALLY NEGATING VIDEO PREP ENTIRELY AND AS NO KNUCKLER IN HISTORY HAS EVER MET THE CONSISTANT VELOCITY & CONTROL EXHIBITED BY R.A, IT’S VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE EVEN FOR THEIR AMATEUR KNUCKLERS THROWING BP TO REPLICATE WHAT IS IN STORE FOR THEM IN GAME.
NOT EVEN THE DIAMONDBACKS WHO EMPLOY CANDIOTTI COULD GAIN AN EDGE USING HIM TO THROW THAT DAY’S BP.
SINCE CANDIOTTI’S RETIREMENT IN ’00 THERE HASN’T BEEN A KNUKLEBALL PITCHER OTHER THAN DICKEY IN THE NL
HISTORUICALLY PITCHERS WITH A UNIQUE PITCH NOT OFTEN SEEN OR FACED CAN EXPERIENCE UNUSUAL SUCCESSFUL TENURES (SEE RIVERA FOR INSTANCE)
AS FAR AS I CAN TELL THERE IS ONLY ONE PLAYER, AS AN OPPOSING BATTER, WHO FAVORABLY ANTICIPATES A DICKEY GS (JAYSON WERTH)
really unique situation.
keep in mind that they do have him signed for 2013 so any potential FA windfall from another team would be starting when he was 39.
I would give Dickey 3 years and $25-$30 mil. That I believe would be the most fair for all parties. It allows for him to be a veteran at the front of the rotation while not locking him up into his mid-40s.
I think that is fair as well although I would assume RA would want some mutual or vesting options after that as well…
Exactly what I was thinking. Probably throw a team option in there too. And some bonuses.
Since you guys are deciding what’s “fair” for RA Dickey what if he has other thoughts? What if he wants to be locked up longer?
You may have to pay his price and not yours so put a little extra cash aside in the event you have to overpay because if you keep trying to get players on the cheap or keep thinking they will accept YOUR fair price – player’s are just gonna keep leaving the Mets for more money.
So get ready to throw him some extra cash if you want to keep him
Hey Bayonne…so just give them whatever they want.. Kind of sounding like Omar. LOL
If the guy wins 20 games for you then….YES!
You mean if he’s putting the Mets in a spot to win 20+ games. If he’s winning games but putting up a 4.50 ERA with 1.4 WHIP, is that worth breaking the bank?
Yep!
Because it’s not YOUR BANK!
It’s Wilpons and if you don’t sign him you lose WAY more than 20 Mil per year when the crickets are the only things in the stands because Sandy let yet another great performer leave in favor of signing guys like Rauch and Francisco from K-Mart!
You guy all worry so much about payroll flexability as if it’s better to buy 5 mediocre players every year than it is to buy one good one for 5 years!
Let me point out something to you….
Without Dickey this season do you know where your season is?
28-42, Last place in the division, 14 games out of the division!
Even if you win only half the games he has….
33-35 Next to last in the division, 7.5 games out….
You know like last July when you said the season was done and time to wave the white flag?
The only reason why our season is looking good this year compared to last is RA DICKEY!
That and the fact that Washington has 7 fewer wins today than the Phillies had this time last year!
So yes you pay the guy as his performance dictates unless you want to play in front of crowds similar to oakland and the pirates which leave you no payroll flexability you think you will get by passing on Dickey because no one will be there to see you play and you will be forced to cut Wright, Davis and Duda when it comes time to pay them as well!
Maybe you and jessup would like that since you two seem to be the guys who would be just as happy to scrap the whole team and just promoite buffalo instead.
Afterall that would fit the MONEYBALL philosophy and get rid of all the heat your currently taking whenever you bring Omar into the justification for Sandy!
Your keyboard is broken. It keeps leaving exclamation points after some rpetty mundane sentences. There was nothing in that post that needed the emphasis. In fact, you’d probably have been better off not saying any of it.
“It’s Wilpons and if you don’t sign him you lose WAY more than 20 Mil per year when the crickets are the only things in the stands because Sandy let yet another great performer leave in favor of signing guys like Rauch and Francisco from K-Mart!
You guy all worry so much about payroll flexability as if it’s better to buy 5 mediocre players every year than it is to buy one good one for 5 years!”
How do you miss the point by so much? It has nothing to do with not paying for good performers. It is wanting to not pay mediocre performers like they are good performers. You can cry about 2 guys who combined will make less than Dickey, I’m looking at the guy who is supposed to be our left fielder. A far better example.
“Let me point out something to you….
Without Dickey this season do you know where your season is?
28-42, Last place in the division, 14 games out of the division!
Even if you win only half the games he has….
33-35 Next to last in the division, 7.5 games out….
You know like last July when you said the season was done and time to wave the white flag?
The only reason why our season is looking good this year compared to last is RA DICKEY!”
Has anybody said RA Dickey hasn’t been a beast so far this season? No. 2012 isn’t the concern. He’s a Met for at least the next 2 years.
It isn’t about high payrolls or low payrolls. It is about winning. Now and in the long term. And since we know Dickey is here for another 2 years at least, this discussion should be focused on the long term.
Your brain is broken, I can replace my keyboard your just stuck in perpetual stupidity!
“It is wanting to not pay mediocre performers like they are good performers”
A guy who is 11-1 and has two consecutive 1 hitters, 3 shutouts, 2 Complete game shutouts and currently a 2.00 ERA is mediocre in your book!
Yeah your someone we should be listening to…..
Here is something you should consider….
As a NY MET!
30-23 .566 Win Pct. 2.86 ERA in 74 Games, 6 CGs, 117 Walks, 341Ks
Oh yes! Very mediocre!
I guess Koosman was mediocre too I mean he only had a .505 Win Pct….
Get a clue since unfortunatly for you Brains are not available for purchase.
So, you intentionally use those exclamation points? You really think your statements are so profound and exciting, they need the emphasis?
And I didn’t say 2012 RA Dickey was mediocre. You know that but you think twisting it will make you appear less wrong.
Then again, 2009 Jason Bay didn’t suck, either.
Consider those exclamation points as NAILS trying to piece that think moneyballing skull of yours that protects a peanut of a brain who thinks 11-1 with an ERA under 3.0 and a near 3:1 Walk to K ratio is just mediocre!
You want to try that sentence again? In English perhaps?
Plenty of english there…would you rather I posted it in your preferred language? Gibberish?
jersey – you are going to HAVE to pay a player HIS price and not yours. That’s gonna happen with Harvey one day, with Wheeler one day, with Tejada one day, with Davis one day.
With all of them These guys know the deal, lol You can’t keep getting these journeyman players at your price or trying to be clever all the time and keep signing young talent like Niese before they get a chance to hit the market.
Good players are going to be want to be paid THEIR price, not yours. Once you’ve alotted enough money in the budget knowing the players you want are going to want THEIR price and not yours then you can move on with the business of trying to WIN a world series.
Then after you win a World Series maybe you can be in a position to dictate your price.
Not now.
IN General with a good farm system, which we now have, you play guys untill they get free agency then you replace them with the next new guy. Dickey is special look at my plan down below.
“IN General with a good farm system, which we now have, you play guys untill they get free agency then you replace them with the next new guy. ”
Hi Jersey,
That type of scenario is already being played out in Oakland and I don’t think anyone here wants to have the same results as Billy Beane does.
Thats “In Theory” not in general!
The problem being that if your team is good you can’t get high enough in the draft to get the best players in it and therefore can’t just let your best players go as there is no one to make up for the loss.
If you start off with a really good team eventually you will have just a mediocre team so by relying on the Draft and Minors to fill all your really accomplishing is letting the cycle of how bad you determine how good you will be 5 years from then.
You need to keep at least 2-3 star players on your team that you build around and only when they decline try to replace them with kids or let them leave via FA!
People talk about the Braves building a decade of contention but they bought a lot of it and didn’t let guys like Chipper Jones or John Smoltz go in favor of some kid.
They kept them!
And while having as good MiL system is preferential you can’t rely on that being the case especially if you are playing for as many playoffs as teams like the yankees and Braves were playing for.
The Yankees managed to maintain where the Braves did not because they were not afraid to go out and buy free agents to fill in holes the Minors could not and the Braves did what they could to keep what they had and had to let key pieces of thier team go without anyone to take it’s place.
Because when you pick 28-32 you are simply not going to get at any pitching prospects to replace a Maddox, never going to happen!
But at what point do you stop? What if he wants the deal Johan got? Do you think the good will with the fans would survive him putting up an ERA over 5 with a K/BB of 1 if he still had 4 years and $60 million to go on the deal? It is more than what he is doing right now. What is he going to do 2 years from now? 3 years?
“You may have to pay his price and not yours so put a little extra cash aside in the event you have to overpay because if you keep trying to get players on the cheap or keep thinking they will accept YOUR fair price – player’s are just gonna keep leaving the Mets for more money.”
And that is why there is a negotiation process.
Please,
You sitting on your couch in over sized polka dot boxers with empty boxes of chines food and cheese doodle packages laying all over the floor and unshaven for a week…you have no need to tell me about business and negotiations
You spend a lot of time thinking about me in my underwear.
And apparently I do have to tell you about negotiations because you seem to have never heard of the concept before now.
Do you think Sandy would Survive if Dickey signs elsewhere?
Your so worried about the 5.00+ ERA….
Well we spent 9 Mil per on much higher ERA than that this year and I don’t hear you complaining about that!
I don’t know. I’m not aware of any health issues. I’m pretty sure if that changed, RA Dickey would have very little to do with it.
“Well we spent 9 Mil per on much higher ERA than that this year and I don’t hear you complaining about that!”
Yes. On 2 pitchers. Both of whom will be gone by this time next year if they don’t improve.
I’m worried about a 5+ ERA for the next 4+ years at $12 million a year.
If he were a free agent after this year, this would be a big story and a dilemma for the Mets. But he is not. Why throw long term money at a player when he playing out of his mind and still has 1.5 years left on his current deal. Do you like to buy your stocks at their highest point?
Wait a year and re-assess.
4 years, $36 million is just about right.
Hey we got Ollie at 3/36 million. Are you low balling Dickey?
Don’t remind me -_- Unlike Ollie, Dickey is actually productive, isn’t about “me first” and wants the Mets to win.
With that said, please explain how 4/36 is lowballing Dickey.
Yes the Mets did overpay for Ollie but to say he was unproductive is false. He was unproductive after the signing we all know that but he sure as hell helped this team in the 2006 post season and the 2007 & 2008 seasons. He was productive then.
IT’s amazing the short memories people have
Short memory? Being that I was a season ticket holder up until 2010, trust me, my memories of Ollie hasn’t wavered, buddy. Despite all that “production”, NOBODY wanted him when he was up for grabs that offseason Why is that? To resign him after leading the NL in walks and having a 4.22 ERA was the dumbest thing they (Front office) did. Said it then, still say it now.
That’s all well and good. But he was productive for the Mets even though your citing his ERA for one season – you know what else he did besides that.
After the contract? We’re all on the same page and he was a disgusting but for not going to the minors.
But be fair before that contract. He did help the Mets in the post season in 06 and in 07 and 08 too so please just don’t pick his ERA for one season because he did more than that.
He wasn’t $12 million a year productive. Ollie got that deal because someone else signed for $15 a year, not because Ollie deserved it.
It is one thing to over pay for a guy who is going to put you over the top in a World series run. It is completely different to over pay for a guy just because he wants it.
Well it is a bit lowball to offer a guy who might win 20 games and is one game shy of undefeated less than 10 mil per….
If he wins the Cy Young you have to offer him more than 10 Mil or your pretty much insulting a guy who happens to be quite intelligent!
you can see it happening already – his own fans like the weasels and the parrots of the world (who admitted in the shoutbox he’s a cheapskate so there u go) they already want to lowball their own player.
Can’t wait to see how this plays out.
It’s all about the MONEYBALL dude…
They refuse to admit it but thats what they want to do, all thier opinions on every subject seems to be about the money spent on payroll and the performance and importance to the team winning is secondary and ignorable!
The only hope they have here is Dickey isn’t really looking for the type of money he could get if he held out for the best deal.
And I have no problem with making an opening offer of 10 Mil per for 3 years with two Option years at 10+ each…
If he wants more at least it won’t be an insult to start at 10 Mil which is more than double his current salary!
In the end considering his age and performance it’s probably fairer to settle on a deal worth 15-18 Mil per at 3 years, 15 Mil per at 4 years and 10 MIl per 5 years.
The less years the more per year, And they can front load, back load and option it out anyway they want but thats probably a fair number considering what he has done here.
Since Dickey likes it here and isn’t all about the money we might get a 3-5 Mil discount…
End result roughly:
13 Mil per on a 3 year deal
10 Mil per on a 4 year
and 8 Mil per on a 5
Dickey would probably want a 4 year deal with an option. Sandy would prefer a 3 year with options.
So the middle ground is probably 3 years with two options at around 10 Mil per.
NOW we’re talking….the deal possibilities Metsie laid out are the most realistic. 15-18 is very fair not this low ball moneyball GARBAGE Those other so called fans are requesting.
First of all, Metsie starts off pretty much where everyone else did.
Second, no, not $18 million a year. That’s too far.
Sorry but no on here suggested 5 years as I did!
Everyone else was talking a 3 year deal and that was it!
You only offer 3 your paying 15 Mil Minimum!
It all comes down to the commitment your willing to make…
If your going to be non-committal then why should he leave per year money on the table?
If you are risk averse then you have to pay more in a shorter timeframe.
If you are willing to give him options then he might take less for more years.
And the age while being a problem for most guys his age is not as big a risk being the majority of his pitches are never more than 75 MPH!
The main thing here is don’t insult him with your opening offer. Your going to get him cheaper than any other guy who pitches with his numbers out there today!
Dickey isn’t going to ASK for Cy Young money and thats the only reason why he won’t get it!
If we refuse to pay him fairly or do what we did with Reyes and let the Market set his value due to some Bidding phobia about bidding against yourself he is likely going to make 15-18 Mil and might as well go where they offer it!
You may be close, but this one is tought to figure. Right neow he is as good as anyone has ever been. No one has yet figured out how to hit him. If someone does figure it out….
This year we gave Pelf 5 plus million. I’m thinking 12 to 14 million for Dickey. Santanna and other top pitchers are getting 20 million. Look at my plan below.
problem is Dickey has been pitching great since joining the Mets so he may feel 60 million/4 years would sound about right
I see a bunch of folks here are forgetting that last year Dickey had a few injuries early that hurt his April and May record….
Just look at how he left things in his losses
April 8th (his second start) he splits his fingernail (important to a Knuckleballer), He leaves the game in the 6th behind 3-2.and takes the loss. (This is the same April that had that 5-13 start in case you forgot)
His next starts (doesn’t miss a start by the way…)
April 14th Gives up 5 runs Loss
April 20th Leaves in the 8th behind 4-3 Loss
April 27th Leaves game tied 2-2 (No Decision)
May 3rd Leaves game in 6th tied 6-6 (No Decision)
May 8th Leaves game in 7th down 4-1 Loss
May 14th leaves behind 6-2 Loss
May 26th Dickey injures his heel and foot covering 1st base leaving in the 3rd inning down 1-0
(Pitched in pain for most of the remainder of the season!) No Decision
May 31 Loss 3-1 when he left
June 11 Loss 3-2 (Complete Game)
July 15th Loss 4-1 when he left
July 30th Loss 3-0 (on a 3 run Homerun)
Aug 5th Loss left in 8th down 2-1
Aug 10th Loss left in 7th down 5-3
Sept12th Loss left in 8th down 3-2
Sept 17th Loss 1-0
It’s quite clear that Dickey recrod last year had a lot more to do with run support than Dickey’s pitching.
He had maybe 4 or 5 four+ RA games.
The rest he was usually withing 2-3 runs from a win. He didn’t get the Run support!
As for what we will offer I expect a lowball offer only in this case Dickey might actually take it.
But fairly I would give the guy a 3 year 30 mil with two options at 10 Mil per making for a total deal of 5 year 50M.
He could (if he wins the Cy Young) hold out for 20 Mil per if he wanted and would probably get it just not for as many years (likely only a two year deal at that rate)
Since Dickey is not interested in holding out for money I say we lock him up for the next three years with two option years for age 42 and 43.
Great article RP! Everything about Dickey is unique. So why not his contract. How about a 7 year 30/100 million dollar incentive ladden contract. 30 million guaranteed front loaded on a declining scale. AND 70 million in incentives based on targets for a starter, reliever, swingman or coach.
R.A. spent a long time wandering in the baseball desert. He arrived in the promissed land (Flushing). He is a greatful human being. So give him what he wants: security for his family, a place to call home, to be compensated for his value to the organization.
Think about
interesting approach and something I would wholeheartedly agree with…
Think about Dickey the Jedi Master Coach. The Mets already have a team in Tennessee. RA could teach the knuckleball to never were AAAA types in a short season league.
3 years 20 mil seems right.
Now you’re in the ballpark, and add an option/buyout maybe. If i was the GM i would budget that amount but for course try to get him for less
there is no way that would be enough though. RA would be better off taking his 5 million next year and hitting the open market…
7 million a year without incentives is an insult given the kind of season he’s having. The guy is on pace to be worth 20 million in this season alone…
but you have to remember his age. Nobody’s giving him 20 million, whether he’s a knuckleballer or not
They might provided it’s a very short term deal….
On a one or two year deal they just might because there isn’t a big risk to it.
More likely though he would wind up in the 15-18 Mil range on a short 2-3 year deal…Less if they add years to it.
I really really don’t think he’d get close to $15M…even on a one year deal
You my not think so but if Sandy even lets him get into a situation to find out Adios Muchacho!
He’s gone because I think he will get that if the years are less than 3!
The issue is that it’s only one season!! Yes, he has pitched better than his record the past two years, but the Mets can’t pay him like he’s going to win 20 games every year. He’s been the best in the game for 3 months…not among the best for the past 3-5-7 years… He’s got grounds to get paid, but not amongst the elite..not yet
but there are 29 other teams that might…
If Dickey were to make it to free agency, he’d be 39 the first time he toes the rubber for his new team. Knuckleballer or not..that’s pretty old.
The other thing is Dickey is having the run of his career right now..he may pitch great going forward, but he won’t be this unhittable forever. His value won’t be what it is now, following next season…
Sorry but over the last three years aside from his Win/Loss record he most certainly has been as good as the best pitchers in the game!
2011 dealing with injuries he was 24th in ERA with a 3,28
2010 he was in the top 10 with a 2.84 ERA
2012 he is tied for 1st with a 2.00 ERA
So the only year he had that he had a higher ERA was the year he split a fingernail in his second start and wwith a heel injury that hobbled him most of the year!
I’d even add TWO team option or vesting years at the end of that deal. He would take pretty much anything in that ballpark. As someone mentioned earlier in this thread, he’s happy with his financial situation now.
As long as those vesting options remain reasonable than absolutely!
oops i just realized i misread connor’s response. I meant to say 3 years at 20 million each year sounds about right
i think you’re pretty right on. One thing you didn’t really discuss is his value to the players off the field. RA seems to be one of the most emotionally grounded people in the world of sports. As an older guy who has had his share of failure, he seems to have an amazing attitude towards his success. He doesn’t get cocky, and he truly understands the mental aspect of the game. Therefore, even if he didn’t win another game after signing a contract, he would still have value as a leader to younger players… unlike, say, Ollie P, to use a recent example.
Since coming to the Mets he has been a solid pitcher, the ace this year. I think he deserves a 3-4 yr deal, he has been one of their best signings. Keep someone like him to help mentor the young guys coming up this year and next.
3/36 with vesting options at 14m the first one and 15m the 2nd with a 2.5m buyout each time.So that’s 3/36 (38.5) 4/50 (52.5) 5/65. Seems fair for all parties.
I’d say try and offer a 3 year $18 million with a $5 mill option, and maybe try and tack another option year on that too. Maybe it gets bumped up to 3 or 4 year $20 – $25 mill with an option.
I can’t comment on what R.A. should get and for how long because I’m not in the business.
But I am concerned about the mindset of the front office. Whatever principles Sandy might have about long term commitments (even though I agree with him) this is the real world and he has to play within the game – the economics of professional sports does not enable one to work outside the box as it appeared in the highly fictionalized “Money Ball” (BTW – according to the small sampling of fans ten years ago, Oakland was picked by most to either finish first or win the AL wild card so it’s obvious that team was not looked upon as going nowhere as the movie also professed).
So if R.A. continues doing well after this streak comes to an end, we will then have a better idea about that mindset – or that the Wilpon’s financial situation is gloomier as many of us suspect it is.
http://forums.thesmartmarks.com/lofiversion/index.php?t733.html
In today’s market and based on what pitchers of this caliber get, Dickey is worth at minimum $15-$18 million per season and he should be good for at least a 4 year deal. So bare minimum, the Mets need to pony up 4 years/$72 million. Right now, Dickey is the only thing keeping the Mets relevant. The only thing! We have Omar Minaya to thank for that by the way and it was good to hear Kevin Burkhardt, Ron Darling and Keith Hernandez say so during the game.